Let's say that from this day forward we all assume that ABSOLUTELY no dramatic Y2K events occurr (ridiculous, but lets fantasize.)I am referring to the industrialized and semi-industrialized(whatever that means)

Now lets employ a little common sense on those fact we pretty much agree on. No matter what anyone says I think we can accept that a phenominal amount of resources have been expended on this problem. Already the amount may exceed that spent on several wars.

We live in a global inter-related society that has come to depend on technology for its increased profits and productivity. That technology relies on computers for most of its ability to keep prgressing.

We have now diverted vast resources to resolve a problem that will directly impact technology, profits, and our faith in that technology.

We live in a society that is demanding an ever increasing level of technically provided "fixes". In this sense technology has bewcome our religion. Technology CAN NOT FAIL, look at the last 20 years!!. This new cosmology has infiltrated every aspect of our existence and even the existence of many people in the third world. We have sent our modern day "missionaries" to them with all the zeal that any priest had in the 1500's.

The high priests of this religion, inhabit the elite position in this world. They worship at the altar of profits,and the belief that the traditional rules no longer apply in this new age.Fewer and fewer people are controling a greater and greater part of the worlds wealth and access to its benefits.

Now, Y2k never happens, just the resources that have been diverted will have a serious long term impact on the profits of many companies. When profits are nolonger soaring the market will decline.The rampant speculation in the market will be abruptly curtailed.

IT investment in the future has been diverted. Management has got to get that stock back up. Lay offs, recession, depression?

Would a full blown depression cause social upheaval, you bet. Would a depression bring about the same level of problems as any Y2K catastrophe, you bet!

So if we have no Y2K we are still headed for problems, probably big ones. Add to it the fact that there WILL BE some level of direct Y2K event, then KEEP PREPARING.

For those worshiping at the altar of technology i hope you make it through to the other side.

-- Archemedes (robin@icubed.com), February 14, 1999

Answers

Archie, I think there will be unavoidable effects. For instance, I believe that by July 4, 1999, 100 US Senators and their families will have done all of their grocery shopping for the next 18 months. Ditto King Clinton ("He can do no wrong") and his shameless pathetic band of lackeys. When Tom Daschle bugs out of the upper midwest he'll lose that gaunt hollow cheek/eyesocket thing after just a few weeks on a steady diet of Vienna Sausages and Dinty Moore beef stew. (That'll be from his private stash. I'm sure the Congressional Hidey Hole South has probably already spoken for the entire inventory of aged Omaha Steaks for the next 18 months, along with massive quantity of dry ice. I bet those old country Highland hicks are noticing quite a run on 12 year old single malt about now. Yep, right there in the Hidey Hole I'd bet.)

Much of big business is stocking inventory in a way not seen since just in time rose to prominence. I would not be surprised if an inventory recession were inevitable. I know my local grocer is not going to see much of me in 2000, come high water or whatever.

-- Puddintame (dit@dot.com), February 14, 1999.

Puddintame: "Much of big business is stocking inventory in a way not seen since just in time rose to prominence."

Can you cite sources for your quote above?

-- sam bell (sambell24@hotmail.com), February 14, 1999.

Sam,

My company went from an ending inventory projection in 99 from 40 million pounds to 72 million pounds. Last month to 84 million pounds. Won't reveal its name, but it's global, and I'm sure we're not alone.

-- margie mason (mar3mike@aol.com), February 15, 1999.

Sam,

My only source for that was the Wall Street Journal. The WSJ ran two articles on that. I'm pretty sure it was just last week ( Feb. 8-12). Frankly, I'm not willing to dig around in my recycling bin to come up with the precise cites.

The first article was about the trucking industry. I posted a thread on this article last week with more details. The gist was that a particular large trucking company plans continued healthy profit increases in 1999 in part because of inventory stocking by big business. The article stated that this would be a boon to trucking because instead of many goods going straight from production to customer, they would now have to be hauled twice. First to the warehouse, and then , later to a customer.

I've seen other references to big business stockpiling. The most prominent name coming to mind is Coca-Cola. I've never seen it mentioned what Coke is stockpiling.

Hope this helps.

-- Puddintame (dit@dot.com), February 15, 1999.

Puddintame, you probably also have some vague memory of references to companies stocking up on the thread from the Y2K Senate hearings on the food supply (see forum archives under "Food," Feb 5). As I recall, the commodities mentioned were fuel (coal, oil) and resins necessary to produce plastic. In fact, I remember something about one CEO stockpiling food and supplies for his employees.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), February 15, 1999.

Old Git, Your post brings to mind a bothersome point. Mr. Evans (of the Arizona Farm Bureau) in the Senate hearing did talk about stockpiling essentials. Then he mentioned the 3-day mantra like dozens of others we've heard in the past two months. There's a major disconnect there for me. Specifically, the words "stockpiling" and "3-day" in my mind have nothing to do with each other. Why stockpile for 3 days? I could live off the crumbs under my sofa cushions for three days.

It's like they're saying "You'd better get in tip-top physical condition because you might have to walk out to the end of your driveway and retrieve your newspaper from Jan 1 through 3."

I think that "stockpile" is the operative word; "3 day" is the meaningless modifier that allows the speaker to remain a member of polite society after uttering the "S" word.

-- Puddintame (dit@dot.com), February 15, 1999.

Wow, did Evans really talk about stockpiling for only three days? I guess he said it so softly or quickly my pencil didn't catch it. My impression is that he was very matter of fact about his stockpiling (fuel, food and generator for self and employees), as he was when he related a couple of bad screw-ups from Y2K tests of ag machinery and an overlooked firewall which resulted in a thousand cancelled insurance policies. With those examples he seemed to take Y2K VERY seriously.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), February 15, 1999.

OG, that's my point exactly. Evan's message was that this thing could be big, REALLY BIG. But I am almost positive that he did sneak the three days in there. That's why I think the 3-day stuff is meant to be disregarded.

-- Puddintame (dit@dot.com), February 15, 1999.

Companies are stockpiling as well as doing some other inventive things. My current employers is buying school buses and training employees to drive them. Why? It isn't part of our published business plan, I can tell you that. We make aircraft electronics, note one thing to do with school buses.

Could it be that in a possible time of fuel shortage they want to get their government contract workers to and from the plant? I'm waiting to see if there's going to be a designated pick-up point near me. And NO, this isn't part of some air quality improvement, reduced- emissions program, our area doesn't need that type of program.

At the same time, some interesting real estate listings have popped up. Like the six hundred acre "possible corporate retreat" with lodging for almost one hundred people and a chow hall that seats sixty. And don't forget the playing field/helicopter landing area.

Are companies preparing for Y2K under the table? You betcha! At least the smart ones.

WW

-- Wildweasel (vtmldm@epix.net), February 15, 1999.