Predictions - what do you think of these possibilities?greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
I lifted this from csy2k and added a few of my own - Andy.
Unemployment reaches or nearly reaches 40% by the end of 2000.
GDP drops by 25% in real terms (adjusted).
Market (DOW) drops into the range of 2,000 to 4,000.
1 year old Lexus available for $5,000 (another reason to have cash).
I year old lexus available for $100,000.
10% of Fortune 500 bankrupt by the end of 2000; 20% by the end of 2001.
Rampant inflation (25%) or deflation (25%) of goods. (CPI might stay within these bounds due to averaging, e.g. gasoline $10.00/gallon; house $50K vs. $250K)
Bank holiday. Stock market closed for some number of days. 25% of banks close permanently.
Paper money worthless.
Paper money extremely valuable.
Gold coins worthless or seized.
Gold coins incredibly valuable.
Severe shortage of certain essential goods: including perhaps gasoline & other oil goods, processed foodstuffs, fresh fruits and vegetables in the off-season, clothing, automotive parts, & medications, and more. Rationing via either prices, programs, or (probably) both.
Civil unrest. (pick any 2) Riots in 'the usual places'. State of national emergency declared. Troops (or Nat'l Guard) in the streets at numerous locales.
Terrorist attacks. Bombings. Nerve-gas (counts as 2 if over 10,000 die). Other biological warfare: same as above). The dreaded 'cyber-terrorism' (money flows through 'trap doors at $1 billion per day+, majot IT systems brought down 'this way' (who could tell?) etc.). A nuclear explosion (counts as 2) - these are bombs, not reactors. Many nuclear explosions (also counts as 2).
2000 elections cancelled (delayed).
Federal, State and local governments 'fail to function' (o.k, that *is* the world we know, but it gets worse.) Looks like the 'Republican' gov't shutdown times 2-10.
Infrastructure breakdown. Electric blackouts, rolling blackouts, or rolling brownouts persistent over the course of entire year 2000. Alternatively, one big blackout for 2 weeks or longer. Several major urban areas without potable water or effective sewage treatment. Telephony services intermittant and unreliable nationwide.
In other words, life in the U.S. becomes more like life in the third world, perhaps plus some. This is not "the world that we know".
U.S. forces attacked with casualties of 10,000 or more.
Defense hamstrung by IT failures.
Several new wars break out (coming to mind: Bosnia (new?) South Korea, Taiwan, Middle East (again, the usual suspects). Chaos triggers these events, though they were 'likely' at some point anyway. Nonetheless, there coincidence makes everything worse.
The U.S. gets in a war. (I won't say "declares war", since it seems we have stopped doing that.)
Massive coordinated attack on the U.S. Or, just the top 20 cities go down. Who knows? Nasty stuff. More likely terrorist-style vs. frontal attack. ICBMs are always a possibility as well.
The third world 'drops off the map'. No phones, no water, no power (in other words, things there get a little worse).
Emerging markets simultaneously enter massive depression (Brazil and all of South & Central America & Mexico; SEA; Eastern Europe) 'Asian Flu' remembered as "good times".
These are just a few of the things that come to mind.
Obviously, it is impossible to say which, if any, occur. Things will happen that are not on the list. Not everything on the list will happen. It only takes a few, or even one of the above (e.g. multiple nuclear bombs) to create a 'unique' situation in the U.S.
Is this the world that you know?
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), February 13, 1999
I get konfused....don't know s-it from shinola...need more information...will increase my research time on the web.
-- Doubleduh (Jerk@web.com), February 13, 1999.
I'll only comment on the economics. The world has been in a strongly deflationary period. In an economic meltdown, this would worsen. Paper money might do very very well. I don't think history would support a case for skyrocketing gold prices in a depression, but I'd like to hear an expert on that.
If paper money becomes worthless because the United States cannot stand behind its full faith and credit obligations, then we will have gone "full Thunderdome" which is a fate not worth contemplating.
Having said the above, diversification is a worthy strategy at all times. The economic future simply cannot be predicted. If you can afford to hold some gold, why not do it. Hold some dollar bills. If you're in a position to hold some real estate, do it.
The average person should not be trying to figure out a way to get rich off of y2k. Your goal should be to come through it as healthy as possible regardless of what tribulations we go through.
Make whatever arrangements you feel you need to make in order to survive. If you have assets leftover after that, look at cash (US currency), gold, US Treasuries, EE savings Bonds, mortgage paydown on your house, etc. Check out the Yardeni site. He might even recommend some common stock holdings.
Be very hesitant to put all your eggs in one basket. That's normally in insider's game. You can't predict the future.
-- Puddintame (email@example.com), February 13, 1999.
Andy, normally great posts, but this didn't make much sense. For instance,on fundamentals, the market RIGHT NOW should be at 2000-4000. After y2k, we will probably not have a market. The DJIA will be 0. This country is 2 missed meals away from violent revolution. Y2k will be responsible for the missed meals. What kind of government will you have when D.C. is burnt to the ground by the raving hordes orphaned by the government? We're talking about cooking outside over a firepit. Do we all understand what that means?
-- James (firstname.lastname@example.org), February 14, 1999.
"For instance,on fundamentals, the market RIGHT NOW should be at 2000-4000."
I agree - can't understand how it's still so high other than the 401k factor...
"After y2k, we will probably not have a market. The DJIA will be 0. This country is 2 missed meals away from violent revolution. Y2k will be responsible for the missed meals. What kind of government will you have when D.C. is burnt to the ground by the raving hordes orphaned by the government? We're talking about cooking outside over a firepit. Do we all understand what that means?"
Not really - it's hard to grasp the Infomagic scenario by the balls and run with it. There are days when I can see this and days when I can't...
Yep a lousy post - wanted to see what predictions others might have - too much s/n ratio on the threads now and it's only going to get worse :)
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), February 14, 1999.
market at 2000-4000? sounds like good buy opportunities. lexus at 5000? sounds like a good buy opportunities.
-- Sharon Schultz (email@example.com), February 14, 1999.