A number of you are posting messages insisting that the electric companies tell you if they are going to be down and if so, how long the outage will be so that you can prepare for that length of time. You are never going to get that information. Why? Because there are too many dots that have to connect correctly before the system works. 1. Fuel Importation of oil from middle east and South America. It is pretty much determined that this sector won't work. The foreign field's pipelines aren't ready, tankers aren't ready, ports aren't ready. US refineries are not ready. 2. Trains are the largest user of diesel oil in the country. See No. 1. Factor the above core fuel problems into the non-assurances of information coming and not coming from utility companies. What have you got? You will never know FOR SURE what is going to happen. You will never know. You will never know. I believe you must accept this and get your contingency plans under way rapidly. If you over prepare that is wonderful. If you under prepare you will forever regret it. Absolutely no one can tell you now or later what is going to happen. Do you really want to base your preparation on what a utility company says? The company telling you now to worry can later say, "We were wrong." It will be you and your family without the basics to sustain life. We can't afford to give 2.

-- Anonymous, February 13, 1999

Answers

For those desiring further elaboration of Marcella's point, I recommend Sanger's paper entitled "Philosophy and Y2K: Is It Rational To Prepare for Y2K?" at http://www.y2kreview.com/ed2.htm

-- Anonymous, February 13, 1999

Thanks for the link Bill, it's pretty good.

I wonder what the math for such an equation would be for the insurance industry?

Steve

-- Anonymous, February 13, 1999

Marcelle - You left out the pipeline system, which is as fragile a link as any. Otherwise you covered it pretty well, except for the desalinization plants in Saudi Arabia, which are riddled with embedded chips.

-- Anonymous, February 14, 1999

Marcella - Ps I forgot to say that I like your expression 'connected the dots'. I wonder why oil is such a neglected subject in this whole y2k thing.

-- Anonymous, February 14, 1999