Speaking with a friend recently on the Russia/China connection, their military stability and mindset, and their possible response to Y2K confusion in world politics. I conjectured that: "Japan's military is not even defense-worthy. We've taken over that responsibility. They couldn't "take" a bone from a dog."

My friend reasoned thusly: "Really? What about all those stats that say the japan spends more on defence than Russia and China. I don't think they will take on a major power like those two, but couldn't they take some food from the philipines or indonesia if push came to shove?"

That got me thinking. What do you think?

Hallyx

"It does not do to leave a dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him."---Tolkein

-- Hallyx (Hallyx@aol.com), February 12, 1999

Answers

Hal,

they'd have to be able to finesse at least a limited, temporary invasion of sorts, in order to do so...don't see the force structure there to accomplish it, especially not the logistics structure.

just thinkin' out loud here, Arlin

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), February 12, 1999.

In answer to your question, one only needs to review history. Japan very successfully controlled about 1/3 of China, all of Vietnam and colonized about half of the pacific basin in 1942-43. If it had not been for the might of the US, it would still be Japanese owned. Do not underestimate those folks. The Japanese (for all their politeness) are essentially a very violent society. To illustrate, just read some of T. Clancy's "The Sum of All Fears". The man knows of what he speaks.

-- Lobo (hiding@woods.com), February 12, 1999.

Japan must deal with the truth that nearly all their energy needs are dependant upon oil tankers, Mid-East oil, and the relatively calm world necessary for that floating pipeline to continue functioning.

Hawaii is in a similar situation, just different players.

-- Mitchell Barnes (spanda@inreach.com), February 12, 1999.

Lobo,

Did you mean Clancy's "Debt of Honor"? "Sum of All Fears" is about the Middle East.

-- No Spam Please (anon@ymous.com), February 12, 1999.

Re: Japan's defense budget. It's really a matter of scale. The budget for the city of Tokyo is larger than the entire budget of China. The Japanese defense budget sustains the U.S. military presence. The U.S. could not afford to be in Japan without it. The bases and facilities used by the U.S. are constructed and maintained with yen, not American tax dollars.

The 'defense' of Japan is like a business. Both countries profit from it. All the U.S.military people (and suppporting civilians) would be considered excess and cut from the U.S. government budget (lost jobs). The Japanese construction industry gets work and the Japanese can 'rent' their defense and have a greater portion of their population involved in income-generating businesses in lieu of expense-generating government employees. Trade deficits and defense issues are separate. One is good for the U.S. and one is bad...and vice versa for Japan. On balance, defense of Japan helps the U.S. more than trade deficits hurt the U.S.

Re: Food. Japanese are buyers of goods they need. The systems to purchase globally are in place and entrenched, a system to forcebly take is no longer in place. Japan of today is not the Japan of 60 years ago, as the world is not the same as the world was 60 years ago.

-- PNG (png@gol.com), February 12, 1999.

With regards to Lobo's statement, Japan was light years ahead of the rest of East Asia when it took over those lands in WWII. They had been planning imperialistic expansion for many years and had the military capability to do that to technologically inferior nations.

I seriously doubt they could solve their problems militarily

-- Joe O (ozarkjoe@yahoo.com), February 12, 1999.

OOPS. Yes it was "Debt of Honor". I apologize. Late hours and all that.

-- Lobo (hiding@woods.com), February 12, 1999.

Joe, I didn't mean that the Japanese would rule the earth. What I meant to imply was that the neighbors of the Japanese have no more resistence to them now than in 1939-40. Japan still could go into Vietnam, Phillipines, various island countries, Indonesia etc and take over control of the country. Could they get as far south as Port Moresby--no, probable not. Could they take over Hawaii? no probably not. Could they exert control (maybe financially as opposed to militarily) over the smaller nations of the Pacific Rim? Yep, sure could. Remember, the Japanese gave up militant expansion in 1945--then just changed the playing field to retail and financial. And they are VERY good at it. Lobo

-- Lobo (hiding@woods.com), February 14, 1999.

I find Lobo's idea of a current-day Japanese invasion of Indonesia to be most amusing. Logistics would ne nightmarish, especially post--y2k, plus the Indonesian Army are the nastiest of MoFo's, had plenty of recent killing practise with the locals, plus home-ground advantage would be huge, plus Indonesia is an absolute basket case - how could the whole Jap army subdue a country of 200+ million people that are already going ape-excrement? Plus, there's not enough food there anyhow, thats why the place is so highly strung. Plus, if food is the issue, Indonesia is quite a long way to go for it. Plus, japan and Indonesia are both client/servant protectorates of the US military and its international hegemony. For the most part such states don't go attacking each other, at least not without Uncle's permission.

Now if official Japanese government emergency food supply policy is to eat people (!!?) then maybe making moves on Indonesia would make a little sense, there ain't much else to eat there. (It's actually really tragic , I probably shouldn't make light of it...but)

And, uh, yeah , the question of this thread remains distressing and unanswered, how will Japan get (enough) food????

-- humptydumpty (no.6@thevillage.com.au), February 14, 1999.

Humpty-Dumpty. Yes, I agree. The idea of Japan expanding again militarily in the Pacific is most likely out of the question--if the purpose is actual physical conquest and occupation for ever and ever. Ain't gonna happen. (Remember, I didn't start this question). I'm sure that this question and it's labyrinthe of potential answers are keepng some folks awake at the 5 sided palace. At any rate, let's try again. Japan could possibly exert enough political and financial pressure to cause some 5th level countries to knuckle under and ship food. Remember, about this time, the US will have enough problems of it's own that rescuing some poor country that 50-60% of the US sheeple never heard of willbe far down on the list. It doesn't hae to be Indonesia, it could be the Vietnams, Thailand etc. I'm sure that they will be knocked down enough that promises from Japan will probably even be able to buy the Prime Mnister's rice. Lobo

-- Lobo (Hiding@woods.com), February 16, 1999.

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Thursday February 18, 11:00 pm Eastern Time

Anchorage plans to send food to Russian city

By Yereth Rosen

ANCHORAGE, Alaska, Feb 18 (Reuters) - The mayor of Anchorage asked residents of Alaska's biggest city on Thursday to contribute food to help hungry people living in Magadan, the closest major city in the Russian Far East.

Mayor Rick Mystrom and a local relief committee kicked off a campaign to collect more than 600,000 pounds (272,160 kg) of food staples, including sugar, flour, noodles, powered milk and tea, to be sent to families in Magadan, a city of 350,000.

Residents of Magadan are suffering from dire shortages of food, money and heating fuel due to the Russian economic collapse, Mystrom said.

``Daily life in Magadan is, at the very best, dreary, and at the very worst, nearing disaster,'' Mystrom said during a news conference.

The relief campaign stems from Anchorage's official ``sister city'' relationship with Magadan. The Russian city is similar in size to Anchorage and located at the same latitude. Magadan is located across the Bering Sea, about 2,000 miles (3,200 km) west of Anchorage.

Mystrom said there is some food in Magadan stores, but the city's residents have no money to buy it. The local electrical plant, low on fuel, is operating at half capacity, meaning that homes are heated to only about 40 degrees Fahrenheit (4.4 degrees Celsius), he said.

``Some families can't feed their children, and the only way they can get them fed is to send them to orphanages,'' he said.

Mystrom and relief committee members urged Anchorage residents to buy aid packages in the next two weeks at local grocery stores. Each package holds more than 30 pounds (13.6 kg) of food. The campaign's goal is to deliver 20,000 boxes to Magadan by late March.

Anchorage residents earlier this winter donated 30,000 pounds (13,600 kg) of winter clothing for use by residents of Magadan. Some Alaska businessmen also provided a shipment of coal to the Russian city.

Similar committees in other Alaska cities, such as Kotzebue and Nome on the state's west coast, have organized aid drives for residents of nearby settlements in the Russian Far East region of Chukotka.

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-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), February 19, 1999.

Good for Anchorage. I hope they still have food to spare this time next year.

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