Declan McCullagh, Y2K reporter for Wired News

A year ago, I was much more pessimistic about Y2K than I am now. I did begin to think of preparing for infrastructure disruptions and subscribed to Home Power magazine.

Fortunately, I eventually realized that serious disruptions were unlikely, and I never did waste my money on that generator and solar array. Companies have moved reasonably speedily to fix their problems -- they have a market incentive to do so -- and the embedded system problem has turned out not to be the show-stopper that some predicted it would be.

Right now I'm much more optimistic about Y2K. I'm not sure whether I'll be with my family on 1-1-00, or at one of the many tech-themed parties that are sprouting around the Washington area.

-- Blue Himalayan (bh@k2.y), February 11, 1999

Answers

"Companies have moved reasonably speedily to fix their problems -- they have a market incentive to do so -- and the embedded system problem has turned out not to be the show-stopper that some predicted it would be."

While the general-purpose computers in some western nations do seem to be getting fixed pretty well (mainframes, servers, minis and Pee Cees), I have seen no positive news about embedded processors. Please share any that you might have!!! Ignore the gloom-n- doomers if they call you a Pollyana. Even Paul Milne will listen to *facts*.

My main worry is that the NWO global-economy is about ready to experience a debt-bubble burst, and Y2K might be enough to bring on a severe depression. In today's climate, that would lead to wars. Biological & chemical weapons are the most cost effective...

-- Anonymous99 (Anonymous99@anonymous.com), February 11, 1999.

Hey Declan, cognitive dissonance :)

Enjoy the party, bring your bug out bag with you :)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), February 11, 1999.

I haven't purchased those items either, for different reasons (not enuf sunlight where we are... and I don't want to fuss with stored petrol). Decided to go with a wood stove instead. Lots of trees nearby.

Pessimism/optimism isn't really the issue; I just want some insurance against what might be a very bumpy ride. No doubt you DO have similiar insurance yourself...?

However I sure don't plan to be ANYwhere near a major city, or near any god-awful cesspool like D.C. (shuddering in horror) when the rollover comes. Hope you're armed at least.

-- It (really@doesnt.matter), February 11, 1999.

Declan and the other propagandizers still want to view this whole thing in a vaccuum. They still won't acknowledge announcements from the rest of the world, the poor shape the global economy is in as it is, and the fragility and interconnectedness of EVERYTHING.

Even if "serious disruptions are unlikely" IN THIS COUNTRY there is still the rest of the world, and the fact that the US cannot continue at its current economic pace (or anything like it) if there are serious disruptions elsewhere...

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), February 11, 1999.

well, you know, Blue - hedonism is it's own reward...and I mean that *both* ways.

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), February 11, 1999.

I used to think that it wasn't much of a problem. Then I thought it was a big problem. Then I thought that it wasn't too bad of a problem. Then I thought that it is probably going to be a problem. Now I am seeking the facts. Let's try to get those, OK?

-- Reporter (foo@foo.bar), February 11, 1999.

(Who actually wrote this, Blue Him or Dec Mac?)

Whoever, he wrote: "Companies have moved reasonably speedily to fix their problems -- they have a market incentive to do so."

OK, valid point. But do they not also have a strong, strong, STRONG market incentive to say that everything's gonna be fine, regardless of whether it's true or not?

Three things would instantly happen to any major firm which admitted publicly that it's too far behind schedule to avoid major disruptions 10-plus months from now:

1.) The firm's stock price would plummet--I mean, free fall, like when the Road Runner finally realizes he's suspended out in space. Just a little POOF! when it hits the desert floor thousands of feet below.

2.) Customers would flock to competitors (you know, those firms saying, "Everything's fine").

3.) Lawyers would be lining up three abreast around the block to file lawsuits against the firm on behalf of stockholders, customers, etc.

In my book, these, too, are pretty powerful market incentives. Plus, they are a helluva lot easier to achieve today -- all you need are clever PR spin doctors rather than IT miracle workers.

-- rick blaine (y2kazoo@hotmail.com), February 11, 1999.

I just read the "Salon" piece where this Declan quote is from:

http://www.salonmagazine.com/21st/feature/1999/02/ 08feature.html

It's the "Lawyers, Guns and Money" thing that was discussed on another thread. Ed Yourdon talks about 1 year of disruptions and 10 of depression...

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), February 11, 1999.

Sorry, Declan really is just a very green little boy who wants to be part of everyone's in-crowd, beginning with the mainstream journalists (sic) and ending with GI people on this NG. Playing both ends constantly against the middle. Hedging everything. Zero integrity. Zero. Sorry, Declan, there are some things you can't hedge: if Y2K is > 8, you are dogmeat.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), February 11, 1999.

Go for it, cat, and as a fellow feline I wish you well. Hope you aren't on your 9th life like me...
Check six anyway, for predator sightings, such as uber-yuppie:

Scott Adams, creator of Dilbert
I've heard that many people are hoarding cash and food just in case civilization collapses. My strategy is to hoard guns and ammo so I can take the cash and food from the people who didn't do a good job thinking through the "collapse of society" concept.

-- Runway Cat (Runway_Cat@hotmail.com), February 11, 1999.

"Companies have moved reasonably speedily to fix their problems -- they have a market incentive to do so -- and the embedded system problem has turned out not to be the show-stopper that some predicted it would be."

I have read through the last 3 quarters worth of 10Q's of the Fortune 100. (Boring/repetitive) The few real details that emerge are:

1. deadlines slipping and missed milestones
2. budgets doubling and tripling over 9 months
3. the money spent/money budgeted ratio under 50%
4. the majority are not doing Time machine testing
5. most large companys still in remediation vs testing as of 1/99
6. no company wide coordinated plan for dealing with embedded issues
7. little attention to external communication problems
8. a "fix on failure" attitude at key suppliers to major corps
9. no attention to loss of key personnel due to "bugouts"
10. lip service only to contingency planning

Where does Declan get his optimism? Through the Looking Glass!!

-- RD. ->H (drherr@erols.com), February 11, 1999.

You forgot #11

11. Most Companys, to show progress are cutting their # of critical systems to the bone so they can show more progress than there really is,,,,just like the Government. TAZ

-- TAZ (taz@nobiz.yor), February 11, 1999.