1999 FORECASTS - based on study of data, trends, news & geopolitical developments by Raymond Kwong (January,1999)

1. The DOW will reach another record but fall short of 10,000 points. There will be a major correction during the first half of the year, but the worst drop of the year will occur during the second half with the highest chance between September & December 31, 1999.

2. The Asian market will plunge again in '99 led by Japan. IMF bailout will prove to be insufficient. More of Japan's big banks & corporations will become bankrupt, resulting in possibly a run on their banks, especially April on. China will likely experience her own economic crisis, with a 40% chance having to devalue her currency. The U.S. & global stock markets will crash latest by February, 2000.

3. Having accurately predicted the impeachment of President Clinton by the end of '98, now I only see 30% chance he might be impeached by the U.S. Senate. But it all depends if the more serious evidence (Filegate, bloodbankgate, Chinagate) & more credible witnesses (such as Ms. Broadrick) will be allowed during the hearing. He will at least be censured & likely fined.(Update as of 2-9-99, NBC is still refusing to air Lisa Myers' explosive interview with Ms. Broaddrick's rape account even after thousands have called to demand release!)

4. More White House scandals will surface even after Clinton is censored. More facts will come out of Filegate. More White House officials/aides will be indicted.

5. How there is a 60% chance either the President or Vice-President will no longer be in office, resulting in someone like Sen. Jay Rockefeller being nominated as Vice-President (a replay of Nixon, Ford).

6. Saddam Hussein will not be toppled by the U.S. or U.N.

7. At least one or more major terrorist attack(s) on Western military/embassy targets. The highest chance that a major attack (biochemical or nuclear) will be launched against a U.S. major city will be between December, 1999 and March, 2000.

8. The Year 2000 Millennium Bug will bite with increasing frequency (more glitches & malfunctions) as '99 progresses, with a panic to withdraw cash, hoard food, essential items most likely September, '99 and peaking in December.

9. More & More companies, government agencies, utilities will come out with a little more admission that all is not well with their Y2K repair & testing timetable. Stocks of companies known not to be Y2K compliant may plunge.

10. The price of gold & silver will take off, especially after September '99 & into 2000.

11. The price of freeze dried, dehydrated foods, generators will skyrocket, especially after September '99.

12. There will be more vague inference & discussion by the President & Congress on the need of martial law just in case there will be social unrest. 70% chance the U.S. will have martial law during the first quarter of the year 2000 as a result of the President's declaration of a national state of emergency.

13. The U.S. & Latin American economies will continue to slow down & enter into a recession.

14. Russia will revert back to a hard-line, aggressive regime.

15. More talk on the need of a national I.D. card in the U.S. and then a one-world currency. More push towards a cashless & checkless society.

16. More turmoil & conflict in Israel with no solution in sight. My accuracy rate for my 1998 forecasts were about 92% . You may see it and much new Y2K material at http://www.geocities.com/hotsprings/villa/3388

-- Raymond (rayk22@juno.com), February 10, 1999

Answers

"14. Russia will revert back to a hard-line, aggressive regime. "

Already happening...

-- Anonymous99 (Anonymous99@anonymous.com), February 10, 1999.