What do we do when the chips are down???- long...greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
325 DAYS!!![no, actually less than 180 working days left - Andy]
Part - I
As of February 8, 1999, there are 325 days until everyone will be asking, "What do we do when the 'Chips' are down?"
This article is written with the expectation that, considering the Y2K mess, it may be the most important I've written during the 41 years I've been in the investment business, when the safety of your family is taken into consideration.
In regard to Y2K, here is the text of a one minute TV ad which I recently filmed: "About 3 years ago, I decided that even though gold coins are important for our clients financial survival, food is imperative for their physical survival, so we added long-term storage food & are now the largest national distributor of this type of food. Because of the Y2K computer problem, there's a very good chance there will be no food on grocery shelves by this time next year. We're very concerned because no one knows how long this problem is going to last! It may only last a few weeks but probably several months no one knows! One thing we do know -- it's going to affect EVERYONE! This is a years worth of our all natural, dehydrated & freeze dried food. It's good tasting, nutritious, & as you can see, it takes very little storage space. Wouldn't it seem prudent to have a years worth on hand just in case? And, if it turns out that the Y2K problem only lasts a few weeks, simply eat any remaining food in your normal course of living. Call today to get a free, "peace-of-mind" packet, so you can make an intelligent decision for your family."
If this article ended with that commercial, it would contain all the information you should need to motivate you to get a store of food for next year. If it does motivate you to call now, great!! If not, please read on. (Are you absolutely certain that the Y2K computer problem won't make it impossible for you to get food in a few months?)
HERE IS SOME INFORMATION WHICH I TRUST WILL GET YOUR ATTENTION!
Y2K NEWS -- from England & Canada: And, since your government isn't giving you any information on this life/death matter, perhaps some from England and Canada will be helpful to you:
"Millennium bug panic warning Start storing now, government tells families. Britons have been warned to stock up with two weeks' emergency food rations in anticipation of millennium bug-related shortages. The statement by Gwynneth Flower, head of the Government's millennium bug task-force Action 2000, is certain to cause severe embarrassment to Labour, which has repeatedly assured the public that food and power supplies will not be affected by computer problems at the turn of the millennium. Action 2000 is advising every household to take sensible precautions by buying an extra supply of long-life foodstuffs in the direst warning yet of meltdown. Anyone sensible would plan for this." Why doesn't our government tell us these things?
"Army fears civil chaos from millennium bug. The Canadian Armed Forces have been ordered to spend the next 14 months preparing for what could be their biggest peacetime deployment tens of thousands of troops spread across the country and frigates standing by in major ports in case computer problems in 2000 bring civil chaos. Logistics officers are plotting where to position vehicles, fuel, tents, cots, ration packs and other supplies. Rules for the use of force are being drafted should soldiers have to make arrests or back up police dealing with riots and looting. As police, fire and other civilian emergency services make their own plans, military commanders have been told that meeting the threat of the Year 2000 bug is their highest priorityNavy captains have been told their ships may have to be docked to serve as garrisons power plants, field hospitals and soup kitchensRumours in reserve circles suggest the field force could reach more than 60,000, including many non-volunteersPolice have begun warning their staffs not to plan vacations around the turn of the year. The RCMP's 16,000 officers have been told to book no time off from Dec., 27, 1999 to March 15, 2000"
Y2K NEWS -- from a personal friend: A close personal friends who is a first generation computer programmer, set up the computer system for author Hal Lindsay about 25 years ago. Obviously, he is the most appropriate person to do this update, because he remembers how he did it back then, right? Wrong!! In order to make a long and complex story short for your reading, let me simply say that Paul told me there were only 2500 lines of code to fix, and it took him 100 hours of frustrating work to accomplish it. Now, relate that to just one similar government project, namely the Social Security System. It has been widely publicized that that agency has over 33 million lines of code to fix and test. Forgetting that none of the original writers of those codes are available today to work on them, it will take over 700 programmers working 8 hours/day without holidays or vacations the rest of this year to complete the task if they make no mistakes. It will also take an equal number of man hours to integrate the 50 states' 32 million lines of code. By now you may have grasped the fact that regardless of who tells you that they will be ready, it is impossible!! In fact, if you believe Social Security will be ready for Y2K, you also probably believe that Mr. Clinton is a faithful husband.
Y2K NEWS April 1: On April 1st (and this is no April Fool's joke), Canada, Mexico, Japan and New York begin their next fiscal year. Many experts suggest this date will Many experts suggest this date will tell us a great deal about which systems are really Y2K compliant. If you haven't made most of your preparations by that date, you may be buried in the stampede.
Doesn't it just make common sense to assume that people who have been computer programmers for 30 or 40 years, know at least a bit little about their profession? Well, if they do, doesn't it just make common sense to listen to them when they tell us that there is a major time of difficulty coming because of some deficiencies they caused in the systems which they designed? Well, if we do listen to their concerns about those systems which they say are going to cause some major problems throughout our economy, doesn't it just make common sense to take some precautionary steps so that we might avoid some major inconveniences just in case they might know what they are talking about? Since a large number of the folks (who have at least called for information) haven't taken any such precautionary steps, one can't help but conclude that common sense isn't very common anymore. I hope and pray that you will call soon to place your order for some of our common sense food.
Incidentally, if you have heard that the Y2K crisis has been caused by a very minor glitch, your information is correct. If you have heard that it will be a simple problem to remedy, your information is incorrect. A good illustration would be that if you asked me to clean a box full of marbles with a rag by the end of the day, I could do that. If you asked me to clean the Grand Canyon full of marbles with a rag by the end of this year, I would have a problem. Some government agencies started "cleaning marbles" five years ago and still aren't close to the bottom of the "canyon" yet -- regardless of what you hear.
In an eight page section regarding the Y2K problem in the Arizona Republic newspaper on January 24th, there was an interesting item quoted from a Gallup poll of 1,032 adults in a nationwide survey done last December, which I present for your consideration, namely: 34% of those polled stated that they believed that the Y2K problems will be "major," yet only 16% are "very concerned!" If only half of those who believe the problems are going to be "major" are "very concerned," then 84% are either still in denial or asleep! When this "self-deceived, sleeping giant" awakens, watch out!! Contrast those members of the public who are in denial with 130 attendees from different parts of the globe representing several different sectors including Banking, Finance, Real Estate, Consulting, Technology, Health Care, Insurance and 17 attendees from our own government, at "A Survival Guide For The Year 2000 Problem," held on 1/4/99 in DC: In a show of hands survey, about 60% of them felt Y2K will be a "very big deal," 35% voted for "a big deal," and 5% thought "just a blip." Quite a difference in the level of concern between the uninformed and the well informed!!
Y2K NEWS -- Shipping: Here's a real Y2K heartstopper: Paraphrasing, Dr. Gary North reports that the U.S. oil refining industry can't get Y2K compliant, ever, as refineries would have to be dismantled to uncover embedded systems. It would be financially better to build new ones, but that takes 3-5 years. This means oil/gas refineries will cease operations on 1/1/2000. Also, they have only small inventories 1 to 2 days! Dr. North went on to say, "On Jan. 5, 2000, there'll be no gasoline, diesel fuel, natural gas, heating oil or fuel oil products at all. Trains/ trucks/cars won't have fuel, so can't deliver food/supplies. No electricity. Dominoes will fall."
Dr. Harry Schultz, the world's highest paid financial consultant, said about Dr. Gary North's statements: "This will be a global situation & many will die from lack of heat/food/medication/water. It's too late to simply worry; one must now be a fatalist. It's coming!" In his annual predictions issue (Jan., '99), Dr. Schultz had these gems
The Y2K deadline can't be changed & no one knows how bad it will be. The unknown is a killer for markets. Many say they'll sell all/some of their stocks before Y2K just in case. That'll be a steady flow of selling, which begets more. Nobody is going to buy prior to Y2K, so it's a 1-way street and smart people won't leave this to the last minute/month.
A Boston think-tank just said that 25% of all Y2K problems will occur in 1999, 50% in 2000 & 25% in 2001, so this is going to be around a long time, starting now and running for 3 years.
What'll gold do? People are currently buying more gold coins from the US govt. than ever before!! (Sadly, vast majority know little or nothing of the probability of gold confiscation, which Schultz pegs at a 30% possibility). Oddly, this time people aren't buying to make a profit, but to protect their nest egg. Gold has less downside than stocks, etc.
Time was then TIME magazine had the best writers. Now they hire anyone. Their botchy, 10-page cover story on Y2K was amateurish, did as much harm as good, threw more mud than light. All it proved is that Y2K will be the main story for all of 1999. 50% are in denial, either because it doesn't seem logical, or because their job/lifestyle is threatened , so they can't bear the idea Y2K is valid.
A CNN/TIME poll reveals 33% will stockpile water and food. (i.e., 67% won't have water or food!!)
A surprising 47% will take cash out of banks! If they do, you can be 100% sure, banks will run out of cash. The extra $50 billion being printed will be gone in a few days if people put their paw where their mouth is I predict cash rationing & been recommending cash stockpiling for monthsIt can become too late any day. Or never. You want to throw the dice? Get a lot of small paper (cash).
Items like tinned tuna may become a currency, rarely eaten, mostly used to trade or make change. Its price in a food shortage could keep doubling.
Ed Yardeni, chief economist, Deutsche Bank Securities, says: keep 25% cash/coins/gold/money mkt., 40% government 1-10 year bonds, 15% stocks, 20% speculation banks must say they're compliant or they're subject to regulatory action, e.g., forced mergers or having their clearing bank rights cut off.
Let "Just In Case" (JIC) be your motto. If Y2K isn't a major calamity, so what? JIC preparations also protect against earthquakes, floods, riot, war, earth changes, & the stress you'd have if you felt unprotected at the 11th hour. One also has a responsibility to family to consider (I Timothy 5:8). Y2K denial is like refusing to buy home fire insurance. (Sounds like my newsletter of Sept. '98)
WATER is the most critical of all needs. Roof water is 1st choice (if you don't have a pool).
An AZ pastor says: "Small business owners who fear the banks may go down & that cash will thus increase in value, by 5 - 10 times, could deposit only half their usual cash. The more articles appear on how safe banks are, the more people smell a rat." (I'm dismayed at the "silent pulpits" in this country regarding the Y2K crisis!)
If only 5% of GM's suppliers aren't compliant, GM must shut. (because of "just-in-time" inventory)
It's not a case of possibly being wrong in planning for Y2K protection. After all, you don't tell a boy scout it's wrong to "be prepared"just in case!
This is a bombshell. It's also the Missing Link! John Hathaway has written most the important words about gold's price in decades. He exposes & proves bank/ government ongoing suppression of gold's price. And gives reason for its likely end. I paraphrase: Basis economics proves manipulating a commodity price must lead to supply/demand distortion. They're capping gold at $300/oz. At same time they're firing up anti-deflation policies. Price explosion is inevitable (emphasis added). "Gold price management has been practiced for years but the hand/intent of government policy has become more evident as global deflation turns unmanageable. Gold, once a passive indicator of market conditions, is now seen as a threat to financial market stability. World central banks are suppressing gold's price."
Half of all S&P 500 stocks fell in '98. 27 stocks attracting 42% of all stock buying.
DC in full-blown panic re Y2K. Know can't get Y2K job done. Know they're in trouble & don't know what to do. Fear public panic, bank runs & stock market collapse. We'll be fed the bad news a tiny spoonful at a time. There you have it 16 timely gems from the world's most highly paid financial consultant. I trust you will benefit from his sage insights & call me to get both financial & physical protection, namely gold & food!!
In an eight page section regarding the Y2K problem in the Arizona Republic newspaper on January 24th, there was an interesting item quoted from a Gallup poll of 1,032 adults in a nationwide survey done last December, which I present for your consideration, namely: 34% of those polled stated that they believed that the Y2K problems will be "major," yet only 16% are "very concerned!" If only half of those who believe the problems are going to be "major" are "very concerned," then 84% are either still in denial or asleep! When this "self-deceived, sleeping giant" awakens, watch out!! Contrast those members of the public who are in denial with 130 attendees from different parts of the globe representing several different sectors including Banking, Finance, Real Estate, Consulting, Technology, Health Care, Insurance and 17 attendees from our own government, at "A Survival Guide For The Year 2000 Problem," held on 1/4/99 in DC: In a show of hands survey, about 60% of them felt Y2K will be a "very big deal," 35% voted for "a big deal," and 5% thought "just a blip." Quite a difference in the level of concern between the uninformed and the well informed!
"SNOW JOB" from the BANKING INDUSTRY: When the Federal Reserve (Fed.) announced on 8/20/98 that they plan to add $50 billion to their "reserve" of $150 billion in currency, most people probably thought, "man alive, that's a lot of money," and forgot about the whole matter. As the announcement also stated, "The Fed. plans to stock up on cash in case nervous Americans want more of it in their pockets on the eve of the new millennium." And, so that you won't think such action will be inflationary, they added, "It just means we're printing the currency earlier than we normally would," because they will print less in 2000. Well, I certainly feel better now, don't you?
(Part - II next week)
Jack Weber - from Gold Eagle
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), February 07, 1999
Jeez - Just a couple months ago Harry Schultz offered to save me from y2k in return for a subscription for $250. I dont believe anyone can save me financially from the effects of y2k, and now I know Harry can't do it.
-- dave (email@example.com), February 07, 1999.
Andy----thanks for the great post. I'm surprised that more people didn't respond to it. I've followed Harry Schultz writings for a long time. It was interesting to read his take on y2k, his 16 points are worth noting, especially if your trying to come to grips with the problem.
-- thinkIcan (thinkIcan@make.it), February 09, 1999.