Yourdon: "My opinion is that we're going to suffer a year of technological disruptions, followed by a decade of depression"

New Yourdon essay

-- a (a@a.a), February 05, 1999

Answers

Another thread already running on Ed's essay is at...

http://www.yourdon.com/articles/y2koutlook.html

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), February 05, 1999.

Mr Yourdon presents a credible and measured prediction.I agree that there must come a time where we take our best guess as to the extent of disruption that lies ahead because of Y2K. The scenario Mr Yourdon paints sounds plausible and I respect the way he is willing to admit he might be wrong.The credibility of Mr Yourdon should make us think soberly about what the near future may hold.Economic disaster looms.We may escape it but be prepared as it is a real,possibility.

-- Dennis Chornomaz (Dchorno@aol.com), February 05, 1999.

Bravo-Yourdon Nailed it

-- Archimedes (robin@icubed.com), February 06, 1999.

Kevin,

I think you meant:

Another thread already running on Ed's essay, titled "Ed Yourdon On The Consequences Of Y2K", is at...

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000T6B

-- No Spam Please (anon@ymous.com), February 06, 1999.

No Spam,

You're right. Thanks for tipping everyone to the thread.

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), February 06, 1999.

This represents my own most likely scenario very well. We have all heard the phrase "bump in the road" many times. I think a more apt analogy for the American economy would be the following.

You are motoring along on the American Dream expressway at 75mph in your new SUV. A few friends told you not to come this way for what you thought were wacky reasons but you ignored them. A few work signs along the roadway appear and you are advised to slowdown to 45mph. You don't. As you come around a turn, the expressway ends and you are suddenly on a dirt and gravel detour that has a lot of potholes. Your SUV is going way too fast and the suspension is getting hammered. There are several foreign cars that have spun out and crashed along your path. You barely manage to maintain control and slowdown. However, a few warning lights on the dash are now alight and there is a strange sound from the right front. Looks like you aren't going to get to your destination anytime soon. In fact, there are some flashing lights ahead and the Authorities are stopping all traffic. The kids are whining, the trophy wife is looking at you strangely and your ulcer (hope its not an MI !) is twisting the knife. Gonna be a looonng weekend if we have to walk.

-- RD. ->H (drherr@erols.com), February 06, 1999.

This has been my best case senario for the last three months. The Depression II will be much different from the original. 70% of the population in urban areas, large government dependent groups (social security, food stamps,....), world economy colapse and the list goes on and on.

-- Bill (y2khippo@yahoo.com), February 06, 1999.

Hey, Bill. Your term "Depression II" is interesting. I've been wondering what to call it: The Great Depression, Part Two? Nope, too awkward. How about "America's Final Judgment"?

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), February 06, 1999.

Nah, it won't be just America. It will be a global depression.

-- Moore Dinty moore (not@thistime.com), February 06, 1999.

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-- Leska (allaha@earthlink.net), February 09, 1999.

The first thought that came to me after reading this essay was that had I, Flint, or several others posting more moderate views of Y2K consequences posted this it would have been blasted as a pollyanna scenario. I suspected Mr. Yourdon's views were along these lines. Bad yes, but TEOTWAWKI? Well that depends on what "as we know it" means.

-- Buddy (buddy@bellatlantic.net), February 09, 1999.