NRC July '99 Mandate. Summer: A BUNCH OF QUESTIONS.

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1) WILL the ~timing~ of the NRC's July 1st Mandate (just before/during the highest peak of USA summer electrical demands) highly *BIAS* the NRC's decisions whether to close (or leave open) many specific nuclear plants in certain regions?

2) Would it ~maybe~ be really helpful if the Government were to impose severe restrictions on air conditioning usage, this Summer?? Along with enforced "staggered hours" for businesses??

3) [So as to *both* keep the Grid secure thru the summer - -(lower specific regional electrical demands?) AND totally satisfy the safety of shutting down the nukes that aren't going to *really* make total compliance...in safe time?]

4) [Isn't air conditioning basically the #1 Reason that we need the nukes? For the extreme peaks of summer draw? Wherein some regions might be very vulnerable?]

5) To wit: especially important/longterm via the NE/Mid-Atlantic region...PLEASE correct/educate me??

{*I apologize if these questions are childish...but...I am just so very confused & CANNOT answer them despite so much research.*} Endless Thanks/&\gd blss, Diane

-- Anonymous, February 05, 1999

Answers

Dear Diane,

Please rest easy and do not fret too much over this Y2K stuff. While I am not directly involved, I know folks working on Y2K in Nuclear Plants. They are working very dilligently, and have not reported any problems of significance in any meetings I am aware of. Nuclear people have a culture where prompt and accurate disclosure is recognized as the best approach to any problems - it saves money, time, and enhances safety. Remember - these folks work at the the site every day - they are even encouraged to call the NRC to report any funny stuff on the part of their employer. They work hard because their livelihood and their very lives depend on the safe and efficient operation of their plants.

Don't lose sleep or health/peace of mind over all this. Take prudent precautions you think are necessary and are within your budget. Please do not spend more than what you can afford or sacrifice necessities out of fear.

Maybe you would take heart to reflect on the people on the east coast who were hit with ice storms this winter. No civil unrest, all employees reported for duty even if their homes/families were without power. NE states saw linemen from as far away as Virginia, North Carolina volunteer to come help. On Christmas eve, linemen in West Virginia and Maryland got in trucks on Christmas eve to go DC, Virginia and North Carolina. People mainly survived, and communities came together in charity to serve those among them most in need.

Summer of 1999 will be no more or less reliable than 1998. Same issues as always, every-year. Did you worry about the summer of 1995 or 1997? The utility dispatchers did. They served you well without your worry, and will in 1999. Shutting down nukes and load curtailment will not be (and should not be) considered any more this year than any other.

God bless you.

-- Anonymous, February 06, 1999


"CL" needs to conduct a reality check in regards to the potential problems of nuclear power plants. I'm not concerned about the attitude of employees involved, on that note, I tend to agree with this person. I have grave reservations about those with the power to close these facilities as I believe they fear creating panic in doing so.

-- Anonymous, February 07, 1999

Thanks so much. The Aug. 22 problem with GPS (telecommunications) effecting utilities & nukes; and also the 9/9/99 date rollover, is the pressing summertime problem. (thank you for the clarifications) So my questions were actually not so stupid afterall. Drats. [this is from that NRC document that's soliciting {valentine) opinions:]

Power Production

As discussed previously, power plants (including fossil and nuclear) must be able to stay online during the Y2K transition period to avoid major grid disturbances or outages. Newer plants with digital control systems may be the most vulnerable. The control and protection functions that the digital control systems perform often utilize time-dependent algorithms, which can, if uncorrected, lead to unintentional generator trips.

Energy Management Systems

Electric utility control centers monitor power system operations (including generating plants, transmission and distribution systems, and customer loads), retain historical data, and allow for the manual and automatic control of field equipment. The control center's energy management system includes supervisory control and data acquisition systems, automatic generation control systems, energy management applications and databases, and graphical user interfaces. Uncorrected Y2K issues in these systems could result in the loss of monitoring, dispatching, and control functions. In addition, many energy management systems rely on precise time signals that may be provided by global positioning system (GPS) technology. GPS has a unique and pressing problem: the clock used by this system will turn over to 0000 on August 22, 1999.

Telecommunications

As shown in Figure 2, the transmission and distribution of electrical power is highly dependent on microwave, telephone, and VHF radio communications. Telecommunications systems, in turn, are highly dependent on the availability of electrical power. Section D.2 contains a discussion of how Y2K issues are being addressed by the telecommunications industry.

Protection Systems

Many newer relay protection devices are digital and are vulnerable to Y2K issues. The concern raised by NERC was the possibility of a common-mode failure in which all relays of a particular model fail at once, causing a large number of coincident outages in transmission facilities.

///{{{dbeatty note: more data\status\inter-relations about telecommunications efforts & so on...}}}\\\

August 22, 1999, GPS Rollover

The Global Positioning System (GPS) is a constellation of 24 low-orbiting satellites that continuously signal data that can be used to determine the exact location of any receiver on the surface of the earth. The data are also used by some systems to establish the exact time of day for transaction logging. The clocks on this system report the time as the number of weeks since the launch of the system in 1980. On August 22, 1999, this counter will overflow and return to 0000 (as would happen on the odometer of a car that traveled 1 million miles). At that point some systems, or equipment, that use the GPS signals may malfunction. Among the vulnerable devices are some cellular telephones, devices that track the location of freight shipments, and some navigational equipment. However, many manufacturers of such devices have built their products to handle the rollover period correctly.

September 9, 1999 (9/9/99)

A common programming device was to enter 9999 as a signal that a stack of data had reached its end. This signal may sometimes have been programmed on date fields, with the result that the date 9/9/99 will have a special and unintended meaning in a program. Although the incidence of 1/1/2000 problems appears to be much greater than that of 9/9/99 problems, systems should be checked for each.

[end quotes]

So, we are to assume - that the most immediate problem (this summer) is whether or not the telecommunications +grid+ {of inter-dependancies} will ~definitely~ be corrected in time, so as to not endanger the smooth nuke/&\utilities functionings? And that, if everyone involved can absolutely guarantee the same?

Which would further reiterate my befiefs, that IF there is any doubt in this matter, the safest course of action will be a government enforced mandate to severely restrict airconditioning, AND business operations of ALL non-essentials, in order to unburden the electrical grid of unecessary excess power demands, during that time period??

(That way - if a bunch of problems DO arise... there will be enough juice available from the utilities that ARE working...in the same sectors, to correct all the related/resultant problems, safely?)

[ It boggles my mind to consider all the possible repercutions. (And overall inter-workings, that must be maintained in order to guarantee secure daily life operationals.) I mean: It seems like such *vast* variables of uncertainty and inter-connectedness must be considered, in order to make the most responsible decisions. Keeping in mind so very many complexities, of diverse inter-dependancies. Highest of Priorities must be addressed.]

Thanks & gd bls, Diane Beatty

-- Anonymous, February 09, 1999


Diane,

I understand your concern for the repurcussions ARE immense. In fact, (for the sake of arguement) if the electric utility industry is totally compliant the rest of the Y2K problem is minimized or perhaps even eliminated.

HOWEVER, the consequence of error is totally unrelated to the PROBABILITY of error. Example: Nuclear war has devastating impacts. The impacts are just as devastating as they were during the Cuban missle crisis. The likelihood of nuclear war is greatly reduced relative to the 60's - 70's. This reduced risk is independent of the consequences.

-- Anonymous, February 09, 1999


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