from c.s.y2k today:

On Wed, 3 Feb 1999 01:37:47, mshulman@ix.netcom.com(Moshe Shulman) wrote:

> >From: kiyoinc@ibm.XOUT.net (cory hamasaki) > >On Tue, 2 Feb 1999 02:52:17, "Paul Gooding" > wrote: > >> I can say without reservation > >> that in my experience, the more people know about the technology, > >> about software, software development, and the nature of sytems > >> especially in a business context -- the less alarmed they are. > >Huh? > >Bill Hoyt, SHMUEL, InfoMagic, Stormhound, TOAST, Frank, BarbKnox, > GregS? > >Not to mention Ed Yourdon, Ed "Yes, I used to program mainframes in > >Assembler" Yardeni. > > Cory, the writer is confusing 'alarmed' with predicting a 'societal > collapse'. > > -- > Moshe Shulman mshulman@ix.netcom.com 718-438-7340

Huh? Again.

You're saying that paul gooding is confused about what he is writing.

Contrary to the Polly's claims, the doomsters are generally not predicting a societal collapse. The doomster position is that there is a non-zero probability of a milne to an InfoMagic end game.

Both SHMUEL and I have maintained for years that the milne or worse scenario has a 10-20 (who the hell knows) percent probability.

Given that at my age, I have perhaps a 1 percent chance of expiring from donut inhalation, hey bub who do you think you're looking at, a drunk driver, influenza, house fire, what ever, I still buy auto insurance, fasten my three point inertial reel harness, don't wear a feather boa and make 'eyes' at strange men in redneck bars, do 1-2 miles/day, and carry life insurance.

If milne or worse has a ten to twenty times likelihood as a house fire, auto wreck, donut choking, then you betcha the smart money is prepping.

Please Polly's, don't run your keyboards here, you really need to straighten out the people who sell life insurance, go around passing seatbelt laws, and lord save us, show the evacuation video's on air planes. What Hype!

How many planes crash a day? Not very many. So next time the Stews tell you to fasten your belt, leap up and give em what fer. You just want me to sit here docily, I refuse. I'll stand when the plane lands, it's perfectly safe.

What? Tax the public for firehouses? What nerve, fire is an overrated danger. I have a brick house and a smoke detector. That's all I need at 3:00 AM.

Oh and as for washing your hands and public toilets? Have you ever seen a germ? That's a myth too.

Lung cancer? Hypertension? Poobah, more doomer mythology. Get a steak, wrap it in bacon then grill it over charcoal, try and stop me copper, you'll never take the kid.

10 to 20 percent chance of it going milne or worse. Only the most clueless, idiotic, pomposity bombing butthead would claim a specific outcome. Only a fool would bet their life against a thousand bucks in preparations. The odds aren't in their favor.

cory hamasaki 331 Days, 7,967 Hours, less than 11 months now. http://www.kiyoinc.com/current.html 

-- a (a@a.a), February 03, 1999

Answers

he is a bit far gone, isn't he?

-- didn't know (justhow@fargone.com), February 03, 1999.

Cory made some descriptive points :) Good job. Colorful writing engages the imagination. Things will not be 'normal' in one year.

xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx

-- Leska (allaha@earthlink.net), February 03, 1999.

there's also a non-zero probability that the world will explode today

cory's losing it

-- z (z@z.zzz), February 03, 1999.

Go back to sleep, z.

-- Vic (Roadrunner@compliant.com), February 03, 1999.

Common Z, you only say that because you know full well that IF the world did blow up today, nobody would be around to say to you, "See? We were right!" Cory's not lost it, if anything, he's got a better grip on the rampant nonsense those people are saying when giving a percentage spread for the the milne scenario. That's all. Perhaps development of your skills at interpretation would be in order

-- Jondolar (jhigley@foxinternet.net), February 03, 1999.

Quote from above:
I can say without reservation > >> that in my experience, the more people know about the technology, > >> about software, software development, and the nature of sytems > >> especially in a business context -- the less alarmed they are. >

I think, au contraire, that programmers, especially in a business context, are more alarmed.

-- vbProg (vbProg@MicrosoftSucks.com), February 03, 1999.

"Please Polly's, don't run your keyboards here, you really need to straighten out the people who sell life insurance, go around passing seatbelt laws, and lord save us, show the evacuation video's on air planes. What Hype!

How many planes crash a day? Not very many. So next time the Stews tell you to fasten your belt, leap up and give em what fer. You just want me to sit here docily, I refuse. I'll stand when the plane lands, it's perfectly safe.

What? Tax the public for firehouses? What nerve, fire is an overrated danger. I have a brick house and a smoke detector. That's all I need at 3:00 AM.

Oh and as for washing your hands and public toilets? Have you ever seen a germ? That's a myth too.

Lung cancer? Hypertension? Poobah, more doomer mythology. Get a steak, wrap it in bacon then grill it over charcoal, try and stop me copper, you'll never take the kid.

10 to 20 percent chance of it going milne or worse. Only the most clueless, idiotic, pomposity bombing butthead would claim a specific outcome. Only a fool would bet their life against a thousand bucks in preparations. The odds aren't in their favor. "

C'mon, comparing skepticism about Y2K scenarios to these idiotic examples means he's losing it. And where did he get that 10-20% probability from? His rear end?

-- z (z@z.z), February 03, 1999.

vb: the guy that said that (Moshe Shulman) is a diehard pollyana.

In my profession, I work closely with a group of 30 engineer/programmers, and the whole location has 100's, maybe 1000's of em. They by and large DGI. So, its hard to say if programming per se is the deciding factor to y2k enlightenment.

-- a (a@a.a), February 03, 1999.

z: let me just say that I posted Cory's remarks here for those of us that can understand his reasoning. Not his farcical wishful thinking, his reasoning. Now, obviously his message was lost on you. So if you wish to continue on this thread with your pants pulled down for all to enjoy, by all means continue.

-- a (a@a.a), February 03, 1999.

z: Go back up and read Leska's comment. It's the same thing a is talking about. Good writers utilize certain elements of the language to make their point and maintain interest. Some of us are able to understand that...

-- Vic (Roadrunner@compliant.com), February 03, 1999.

Cory knows code. Cory knows big-iron mainframes. Cory was pleasing to "z" prior to day 500, then he resigned himself to where it was heading.

-- James Chancellor (publicworks1@bluebonnet.net), February 03, 1999.

z., are you really claiming that the chance of a Y2K catastrophe is less than the chance of the airplane you're on going down? That's really low odds. Why do you bother hanging around here?

I'll bet the airplanes you fly on don't have any known malfunctions. Nobody says, "This plane is full of broken parts, but we are going to fly it in X days, so they better all get fixed in time." And yet in spite of all these advantages I'll bet you still fasten that seatbelt.

It's easy to react emotionally and say "he's losing it," it's a lot harder to actually counter an argument.

-- Shimrod (shimrod@lycosmail.com), February 03, 1999.