I really would like some serious input here. What is a Y2K Expert?

-- Other Lisa (LisaWard2@aol.com), February 01, 1999

Answers

Anyone who get's it. And I am serious.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), February 01, 1999.

I think Paul Milne pretty much has the infrastructure part nailed. the political aspects of recovery are another matter.

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), February 01, 1999.

We were just talking about this very question at another site. Here's an excerpt from my post there:

No one is an expert in every field involved. That is why the so- called experts are usually people who have strong IT backgrounds, have inside contacts in many industries and spend all their time evaluating information from all sectors of the infrastructure. People and organizations like Yourdon, Yardeni, Jagear, Wheatly, Rogers, Cowles, Gartner Group and Cap Gemini are often the best sources of over all where do we stand?" Yet, these are mostly second hand sources. They accumulate and assimilate all the first hand information in order to provide comprehensive infrastructure reports The government uses these sources themselves; you can find their URLs listed at many national and international government sites.

There is nothing wrong with second hand information as long as the first hand information it came from was accurate. That is why reports like the NRCs, 10Q's and congressional hearings are so important. They represent an aggregation of (as close as we can get) to first hand information. Unfortuneatly, these sources tend to accentuate the postive and play down the negative in order to preserve public confidence and an over inflated DOW Jones average.

I think too many people look at there own areas, even just their own companies and say we are OK, so Y2K is not going to have a large impact on us. This is a very narrow view that could prove detrimental to the preparedness process that the communities should be undertaking RIGHT NOW.

-- Meg Davis (Meg90999@aol.com), February 02, 1999.

At Last! someone is thinking!

What is a Y2K expert? someone who has dealt with the IS/IT end of the problem AND understands the workings of the macro-economic system; and does not stand to profit from releasing this information!

Some questions to ask yourself when considering this:

1. Does this person stand to gain, monetarily or otherwise, from 'selling me' on Y2K? (books, tapes, seminar circuit, software sales for remediation, etc.; does one website lead to another for 'profit'; does a y2k e-news letter lead back to a supply site...)

2. Does this person have the qualifications to draw valid conclusions from technical data? (does a Ph D in history, for example, qualify someone to comment on the California white papers? does 30-some years of programming knowledge count towards understanding banking economics? etc.)

3. Am I in a vunerable 'fear' state right now, because I just heard about this Y2K thing and don't understand it all?

4. Is what I am being told NEW information, or recycled old news? (if a book was written in say, '96 it may have been acurate then...but in a second edition, is all CURRENT remediation disclosed?)

5. Are sources ambiguous, or clearly defined? ("my sister's uncle's next-door-neighbor knew a guy who..." probably isn't a good source of info!)

6. A) Is this 'expert' or 'reliable source' trying to re-define standards or definitions? (things like "y2k ready does not mean compliant" or "get a compliancy statement on company letterhead that reads 'we guarantee 100% compliancy'; not enough time to test, missed a deadline...)

B) Are they demanding unreasonable guarantees from companies that have historically NEVER offered them? (demanding power companies 'guarantee' you will have power on Jan. 1, 2000 for example...no power company can EVER make such a claim FOR ANY DAY, NOT EVEN TOMORROW)

7. A) am I confusing QUANTITY of material with QUALITY of material?

B) am I willing to drop a preconcieved view in light of new info? (do I downplay positive information as 'pollyanna' or 'cover-up' even if I've trusted the source in the past)

8. am I being asked to grant questionable starting assumptions, to follow a line of reasoning?(interdependancy is a weakness; "it can't be done in time"; not enough programers; etc.)

I have found several links (that most won't read) which expose many false (or at least irresponsible) "experts" on Y2K...

here they are:

anonymous source

More from an expert

warning to those who think research on the 'net qualifies them as "experts"

multiple de-bunks and exposures, all in one place!

The experts are out there...you just have to know who to listen to. common sense and critical thinking go along way...if not put on hold by fear.

(Milne? infrastructure nailed down? LOL! He needs his tongue 'nailed down' to the floor...maybe then he would shut his cake-hole and let someone that HASN'T been brainwashed by North address real facts on this forum.)

The truth about Paul Milne

-- Mutha Nachu (---@fire.com), February 02, 1999.

Here's a news item on two people who could rightfully be called Y2K experts:

http://nt.excite.com/news/bw/990129/va-itaa

ARLINGTON, Va. (BUSINESS WIRE) - The Information Technology Association of America (ITAA) announced today that software guru and consultant Edward Yourdon and CIO Magazine Publisher Gary Beach are among the keynote speakers to address the International Software Assurance Certification Conference, March 1-2 at Northern Virginia's Westfields Marriot.

[snip]

Greater focus is being trained on critical systems security protection and reliability as Year 2000 approaches and governments begin to develop policies to ensure economic and infrastructure security.

[snip]

ITAA consists of 11,000 direct and affiliate members throughout the U.S., which produce products amd services in the IT industry.

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), February 02, 1999.

Here are links to recent comments by some Y2K experts:

Senator Bob Bennett, Chairman of the Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem...

http://www.y2ktoday.com/modules/home/default.asp?feature=time&id=736

Peter de Jager's "Open Letter to President Clinton"...

http://www.year2000.com/archive/y2kclinton.html

Dr. Ed Yardeni's Y2K Reporter...

http://www.yardeni.com/y2kreporter.html

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), February 02, 1999.

My dictionary says an expert is someone with special skill or knowledge or experience (in this case, of Y2K).

The self professed brand of them that inhabit the GNBFI forum appear to be terrified; first that someone would consider listening to anyone but them and second that in some way that they don't understand Y2K will live up to its most negative potential.

Anyone who says, "Listen to me! I don't need to cite any references or sources because I AM a reference and a source!", has at the same time a serious case of egomania and a glaring lack of understanding of how to communicate with people.

Simple examination would seem to indicate that Y2K was at one time a simple software design flaw. Neglect, lack of recognition, greed, or whatever you choose to see as the cause for failing to deal with it when it was small notwithstanding, history and present circumstance clearly show that it is no longer just a simple software problem nor even just a business problem as some would have us believe.

You are here, presumably in an effort to deal with Y2K. Are you here in a software remediation capacity? You should not be. The forum objective clearly states that this forum is for people to deal with Y2K on a personal level. Are you here in a business capacity? See the above. Are massive amounts of money and effort being expended to solve the Y2K problem in government? Are legislatures spending time and effort in an attempt to deal with Y2K? Are the military establishments of numerous countries grappling with the problem? Are the clergy of major, mainstream religions attempting to make sense of Y2K? Is the financial community making any effort to deal with Y2K? How about the media? Have they paid any attention to it? All the survival foods, Aladdin lamps, oxygen absorbers, etc. are selling to someone, aren't they? What do any of those items have to do with software or business (other than the one that sells them)?

Just a software and business problem, eh?

Here's a NEWS FLASH for you fools at the GNBFI forum: GN may be an enemy of the US Consitution (and it seems clear that he is) but that does not translate into proof that he's wrong about the systemic nature of Y2K. GN is hardly clueless about the financial world either. If you'd done your homework before you shot your mouths off, you'd know that. He's probably forgotten more inside information about the financial world than you'll ever know. I've never seen him in person, but in none of the photographs I've seen of him was he fat and to label him an idiot is to expose your own lack of knowledge of just what an idiot is. BTW, I personally wouldn't trust GN any farther than I could throw him and I'd certainly never leave my child alone with him. But, to asess his abilities and conclusions in any less than a completely objective and accurate way is not to my advantage.

Experts? There are certainly people who are in the process of developing expertise and there may even be some of those who are far enough along to qualify as such by now, but I certainly didn't find any of them at the GNBFI site.

-- Hardliner (searcher@internet.com), February 02, 1999.

There are computer experts.

There are systems experts.

There are experts in history, finance, government, etc.

There are NO Y2K EXPERTS, we are learning as we go.

-- Uncle Deedah (oncebitten@twiceshy.com), February 02, 1999.

My two cents:

From a short survey then, I suppose there are different categories of experts:

-Programmer Techie Types (Ed & Cory) -Public at large GIs or DGIs who after doing their homework on programming, embedded chips/systems, reading reports, SEC disclosures, calling or writing their utilities & government officials, talking to their employers or evaluating their own business, see the macro aspect of this problem (although I haven't yet run across a DGI who sees the macro - not saying they aren't out there, but I haven't met one yet) -Academia folks like North (I think a Ph.D. in History qualifies him to be a valid source for opinions of the potential impact of Y2K in the future be it gloom or glee)

Where do I put Peter de Jager (bite your tongues)? Is he a programmer?

-- Other Lisa (LisaWard2@aol.com), February 02, 1999.

When I am among friends who are only slightly aware of Y2K, the moment they show the least interest in the subject I reveal myself to be a Y2K expert. Compared to them I am an expert, and I have enough knowledge to tell them everything they need to know to either Get It or develop enough interest to search for more info. Most of the people on this forum are the same type of expert, and we will do more to help our friends and relatives than any government spokesperson. We are the experts!

-- Pearlie Sweetcake (storestuff@home.now), February 02, 1999.

Hardliner said:

The self professed brand of them that inhabit the GNBFI forum appear to be terrified(???); first that someone would consider listening to anyone but them and second that in some way that they don't understand Y2K will live up to its most negative potential.(double ???)

Anyone who says, "Listen to me! I don't need to cite any references or sources because I AM a reference and a source!", has at the same time a serious case of egomania and a glaring lack of understanding of how to communicate with people.

whatever...North and Yourdon (among others) do it all the time...North is better at the propoganda end of it, because he has polished up for decades.(You have no clue who you're talking about, do you?)

You are here, presumably in an effort to deal with Y2K.

Nope. to deal with newbies fear about Y2K. Folks like you are just to far gone...bought the 'insurance' sales pitch, or just can't get out of the conspiracy mindset. Oh well, have a nice life with your fears!

Just a software and business problem, eh?

Yep. but the "millennial madness" had to creep in, and then the religious nuts had to bring in 'prophecies', then the greed factor of those who smelled a big cash cow kicked in. those types know that the vast majority of people are tech-illiterate. What easier way to scare them into forking over cash than to use...the very technology they are afraid of?

"...Yes, being a programmer for X amount of years certainly qualifies me to address the end of the world. If you will only buy my new book, I'm right and everbody else is wrong because circular reasoning is king., you will see that thru faulty logic and bad use of math (along with with several unproven ASSumptions, that you must grant me), I just have to be right...after all, you paid for my advice, didn't you? - ad infin. ad nauseum

Here's a NEWS FLASH for you fools at the GNBFI forum: GN may be an enemy of the US Consitution (and it seems clear that he is) but that does not translate into proof that he's wrong about the systemic nature of Y2K.

Assumption: there really is a 'systemic' nature to Y2K. Why? because North says so? North also said the Euro Had to fail...it was systemic...he also said there would be a banking failure in the 80's...it had to fail...because it was systemic. The 'charlotte's web' theory is only good on paper. If it were true, Iraq would have ceased to exist when ALL points of the 'whole cloth' system were bombed (power, transportation, military, etc. etc.) at once.

GN is hardly clueless about the financial world either.

THIS one is partially true. Herr North as been grifting people for alot of years... gotten good at it, too.

If you'd done your homework before you shot your mouths off, you'd know that. uhhhh...you might want to take your own advice on this one. Name one thing North has predicted that has come about.

I've never seen him in person, but in none of the photographs I've seen of him was he fat and to label him an idiot is to expose your own lack of knowledge of just what an idiot is.

touche`! he is actually a small physical specimen; but it has been determined that the 'big, fat, & idiot' statements came about as a measure of the inside of his head! (and the committee thought that "Gary North is a Large, Obese, Moron" just didn't have the right 'ring' to it!

Experts? There are certainly people who are in the process of developing expertise and there may even be some of those who are far enough along to qualify as such by now, but I certainly didn't find any of them at the GNBFI site.

You just ain't lookin' hard enough, boy!

There are several there. But there are many more that cannot be bothered with educating the masses...they are far too busy with business, all over the world.

it brings a smile to my face when I think of the 'TEOTWAWKI' mindset waking up in 2000 to the reality that many business' (under no obligation to disclose status to the public) will spring up to eat the competition in true big business fashion. Maybe...just maybe... the doomers will realise that big business is not as stupid as the masses think they are...

OtherLisa, Pearlie:

Thanks for proving my point.

ta-ta!

-- Mutha Nachu (---@mountains.com), February 03, 1999.

Mother Nature,

Your approach might have swayed a few people in October 1998, but it's now February 1999. The business community missed its December 31, 1998 deadline. FEMA and the American Red Cross are advising people to prepare for Y2K.

You said, "Assumption: there really *is* a 'systemic' nature to Y2K. Why? because North says so?"

No, Mother Nature, because people more expert than you believe it to be true, such as Senator Bob Bennett of Utah in this video on the Federal Reserve Board's site...

http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/y2k/CSPAN/19980715/Bennett.ram

...or this page from the National Guard on interconnectedness and the embedded systems problem...

http://www.ngb.dtic.mil/y2k/closer.htm

"Mother Nature," it's not nice to fool brother and sister preparers...

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), February 03, 1999.

My favourite expert is Cory Hamasaki. Intelligent guy, works in the field, nothing to gain from a crash, clearly knows a hell of a lot.

Then Milne. He's got opinions, loud ones, but he still knows something.

deJager is *not* an expert. He is a Pollyannaish traitor.

-- Leo (lchampion@ozemail.com.au), February 03, 1999.

Well, I have no intention of feeding trolls, but for the sake of accuracy, "Mutha Nachu" is a VOLE .

And, as much as I consider GN a mortal enemy of the Constitution (and thus of mine), I am compelled to point out that he has, in addition to a doctorate in history, a considerable formal education in economics (University of California, Davis, I believe), was employed by a US Congressman in a financial policy capacity (for whatever that's worth) which exposed him to international banking at a level you and I will never see and made a whopping lot of boodle on his own by successfully foreseeing the technological revolution in cellular telephones. None of this makes him a prophet, but I submit that it removes him unquestionably from the "idiot" category.

-- Hardliner (searcher@internet.com), February 04, 1999.