Y2K may not have to be what cripples the planet...greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Greetings from the OddOne!
Polyannas and hardcore D&Gers notwithstanding, it may not entirely matter if/whether/how Y2K delivers the large-calibre shot to the collective planet's cranium. Brazil's real has slipped even with some measures to shore it up, Russia's economy is all but nonexistent anymore, Japan's seeing the possiblility of a downward spiral into a massive recession that they've had brewing for over a decade now, Asia's little economies are as a whole doing a cannonball dive into the shallow end. And then there's the fiscal motherlode: the American financial system, with its credit bubble and mass-investments in the stock market by the general populace, who unfortunately aren't savvy enough as a group to be swimming in those waters without some serious lifeguard action in place.
Y2K doesn't have to be/trigger TEOTWAWKI. It could easily be a major contributing cause, or simply a few minor nuisances piled on top of a system that in and of itself isn't going to hold its own much longer strictly because of too much shortsightedness being too tolerated for too long. Y2K is going to be bad, it's a forgone conclusion based on simple evidence coming from the people in the know that are willing to mention it.
But, Y2K is but one (albeit massive) piece of a contraption that is at best sadly unstable, and at worst critically at risk of self-destructing or simply collapsing under its own weight. It's a simple law of nature; if you don't have enough support to hold the thing together it won't stay together. Faith-driven systems abound in the financial sector planetwide and faith in these systems is eroding. When the faith is shattered by anything large or small (See Columbia and their infrastructure-eliminating earthquake; or Dade county, Florida, for the month of September after Andrew saw to it that little was left standing and what was didn't work well.) these systems collapse and start taking down interdependent systems as per the domino effect we're all expecting to see in some form or another.
Y2K might very well be the catalyst for Armageddon, or the Biblical Great Tribulation that leads to Armageddon, or it might be a really rough ride for most city-dwellers, or it might cripple lesser companies and countries, or it might be a series of incredibly annoying but fixable problems. Nobody knows, and it scares the hell outta a good number of folks. But, Y2K isn't the only beast poised to spring out at the unsuspecting...
Just my $0.02, feel free to add a few pennies to the till.
OddOne, who's seeing more and more might turn into less and less...
-- OddOne (firstname.lastname@example.org), February 01, 1999
Which will come first, economic collapse due to foreign countries economic situation and our own economic bubble, or Y2K the computer glitch? It will make a difference on how to react accordingly.
-- moonbeam (email@example.com), February 01, 1999.
Previously discussed previously and often in OTHER THREADS herein.
Check out political-economic analysis books by James Dale Davidson and Sir (Lord) William Rees-Mogg. ("The Great Reckoning" and possibly "The Sovereign Individual")
Also, check out some of the "gold bug" web sites.
-- A (A@AisA.com), February 01, 1999.
Boxers call it "the one, two punch".
-- Bill (firstname.lastname@example.org), February 01, 1999.
Oh darn. More stuff to worry about.
-- me (email@example.com), February 01, 1999.
If a collapse of foreign nations begins, there would be a massive flow of investment funds (from these countries) into our stock and bond markets. US currency would also start rolling in from these countries. This would slow down our own collapse.
-- Tomcat (firstname.lastname@example.org), February 01, 1999.
Tomcat - " If a collapse of foreign nations begins"
That's already happening! That's part of why our stock market is running up so high. The investment part anyway. I think the currency part is wrong, however. People in Russia, Indonesia, Japan, etc, who hold US currency would be more likely to hold onto it, rather than let it go. It is the reserve currency of choice, after all.
-- pshannon (email@example.com), February 01, 1999.
The U.S. Dollar is reserve currency of choice because it is backed by the power of the U.S. Government. It is however, just paper (or appropriately ordered magnetic domains on disc drives), with no intrinsic worth. If U.S. power and the ability to steal (tax) is diminished significantly, that currency (and bonds) will be dumped faster than a cup of McDonalds coffee in your lap.
-- A (A@AisA.com), February 01, 1999.
oddone: for insight into what is happening, what has happened, and what is going to happen, read Paul Milne's rants on c.s.y2k from the past year or so. His thought process roughly parallels yours, but with a lot of insults thrown in for those who can't follow the line of reasoning.
-- a (firstname.lastname@example.org), February 01, 1999.