I have read that the electical power generating plants in Nova Scotia are currently operating as though it were already April, 2000.

Is this possible??

-- Anonymous, January 30, 1999

Answers

Yes it is possible. I believe that approx. 40 gen. units in US have done on-line integrated roll-over tests. I seem to recall hearing a utility in US has 2 units operating continuously in Y2K right now. (memory fuzzy on this one)

-- Anonymous, February 01, 1999

Re operating with systems set beyond rollover date; Isn't it true that many, if not most of the embedded chips cannot be "reset by advancing the clock on the "system""?

My understanding is while many components of an integrated computerized system are connected to a main CPU, many components operate independently of the "integrated system time". Changing the date on the main system does nothing to the parts not directly connected to the system including many if not most of the embedded chips.

Please correct me if I'm wrong here. While it is good news that some systems within a particular electric utility have been rolled over past 12/31/99, it doesn't preclude parts of the over-all system from the possibility of having problems on that date or on successive and random dates.

Thanks for the input.

Steve

-- Anonymous, February 01, 1999

Rick, I would like to know that as well. Also, this story was reported in 2/1/99 in the Wall St. Journal. The systems that were rolled over appear to be new Y2K compliant systems recently installed according to the report. The fact that these systems didn't crash is hardly surprising then. The utility indicated it had at least 3,700 different systems with thousands of embedded chips. That translates to at least 3,700,000 chips, right. 10% (not 1% as is generally thought) had calendar date issues. That translates to 370,000 chips that if the above comment is correct are not affected by this date roll-over testing and are still vulnerable to failure. And what is the size of this utility as compared with domestic utilities. Is Nova Scotia considered a small or medium sized utility? If so, then multiply the problem for the large utilities, right?

-- Anonymous, February 01, 1999

I have been researching as best I can on the above.

I just received the following email from jill.lawrence@nspower.ca:

QUOTE:

Carol,

Thank you very much for your interest in what we, as a company, have been doing to prepare for Y2K.

In response to your e-mail, while we cannot, obviously, guarantee no power interruptions, we can tell you that based on our industry- leading efforts, we have every confidence that things will proceed as normal. We do not expect our operations on January 1, 2000 to be any different than they are today.

Why are we so confident? We've been preparing our business for the year 2000 for more than two years now. To date:

98% of our critical computer systems are Year 2000 ready now; all will be ready by June 1999. Half of our generating units are already operating in the Year 2000. We've conducted extensive testing of all of our systems and made upgrades where necessary We've rolled our systems forward into Y2K where it is practical and are pleased to report that none of the generating facilities involved have experienced any problems We're working with utilities in North America to ensure the security if (as typed in the e-mail - I guess she meant of) the electrical grid in northeastern North America. We are communicating with our suppliers and key customers as part of our efforts

I hope this information has answered your questions to your satisfaction. If you have further questions don't hesitate to e-mail me or phone us at (902) 428-6578.

Jill Laing-Lawrence UNQUOTE.

-- Anonymous, February 01, 1999

This is a quote from a source that Rick respects:

Embedded Systems and the year 2000 Problem (The OTHER Year 2000 Problem)

In it Dr. Frautschi states:

"In the case where no external agent sets the date... The inability to access and therefore to roll forward the dates of these internally date sensitive chips is an impediment to testing for compliance..."

This might make it not "practical" to roll the date forward in these special cases. Also it would be technically incorrect to say that they are operating as though it were 2000 when, in fact, some systems could not be tested and continue to operatate in the current millennium.

Dr. Frautschi also states:

"Internally date sensitive systems observed to be functioning normally after 1/1/2000 are not guaranteed to be compliant."

Dr. Frautschi explains that, dending on when they were produced, chips may exibit defective behavior well into the future.

-- Anonymous, February 01, 1999

Troy,

Thanks for the info. I thought that was the case. I wonder how many of those boogers are gonna give us fits?

I believe Frautschi and IEE agree those chips will be failing randomly on into the future after the century mark passes. If the whole situation wasn't so threatening it might be funny.

Was there ever any agreement among reliable sources as to how many of those potentially buggy microchips might be currently in service?

I've heard 1% of either 25 or 50 billion of them could possibly go bad due to date problems. I've also heard other numbers. What's the latest reliable figures we get a consensus on? Anyone know?

Steve

P.S. Did you ever notice how much a micro-chip resembles a bug? Sort of a "Transformer" cockroach. That's transformer as in "Robots in disguise" (they were an eighties thing for kids).

-- Anonymous, February 01, 1999

I checked their web site http://www.nspower.ca Nova Scotia Power has a long way before they can declare their systems compliant. They only began their phase two remediation and testing efforts beginning with the third quarter of 1998 and have 70+ people dedicated to the problem. That means that each person has to find, test, fix and re-test approximately 16 embedded chips per day every day until the end of the year or 2 every hour on a typical 8 hour work shift assuming no weekends off, holidays or sick days, of course. The reality is that many of these embedded chips cannot even be readily located in the labyrinthine plant enterprise. The bigger threat as with all coal fired power plants is the collateral disruption in their fuel supply. Nova Scotia relies on a government owned rail system that was the result of an Amtrak like bankruptcy for delivery of its coal supply. Here is what their third quarter 1998 report had to say about their fuel supplier: "Recent production interruptions at CBDC have meant that they are unable to fulfil the terms of their long-term contract with us. A Coal Inventory Management Plan has been developed jointly with CBDC in order to ensure a secure supply of coal for the reliable generation of electricity." And these disruptions are before Y2K is even a factor for the rail carrier. The bottom line is that articles that claim victory over the dreaded Y2K problem must be read with the same degree of skepticism as you would an Armageddon type article.

-- Anonymous, February 02, 1999

Troy, it is not the date when the chip was produced that determines when an internally date-sensitive embedded controller will fail.

Dr. Frautschi states, "These systems "wake up" (power on) with some predetermined, epoch date. Depending on the application, the explicit form of the non-compliance and the difference between the default time and actual time, these systems will fail at some other time determined by the interval between the epoch date and 1/1/2000".

Note that every time the device is powered down and back up, the internal date is re-initialized to to an arbitrary "epoch" date, from ROM. Then it begins to increment.

If such embedded systems have been running ok since installation, and have been powered up and down for maintenance operations, etc. (re-initializing their clocks to the epoch date), then I can't see a reason to fear them. If the date in a system is next-to-impossible to change, then it can't be too important to its operation. Just power it down during maintenance, and it will default to a safe date. That's why there's no reason to fear the controllers in your microwave and toaster.

-- Anonymous, February 08, 1999