I am in the Military and I am leaving for Korea in March 99 and returning Feb 2000 (I hope)! I am sure the US Government has a plan, but what about Korea? Will they be without power? I am not even sure if the airlines will be safe. I just need to know if I will be able to return to America to my wife, daughter and son on time or not? Does anyone know what my chances are? Thanks, Frank.

-- Anonymous, January 30, 1999

Answers

Hi Frank, since I spent 22 years of my life as a military wife, and know all about PCS's and family separations, I figured you deserved the best answer I could give you.

The Gartner organization has rated various countries in a 4 tier system with Level 1 being the more prepared and Level 4 indicating the least prepared, with the possible level of mission critical disruptions from 15% (best) to 66% (Level 4). Here is part of one of their assessments:

"Among Asian countries, only Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore feature in Gartner's Level 2 readiness list (see below), and none made it to Level 1, Duggan said. Level 2 readiness indicates a predicted Y2K-related mission-critical failure among 33% of a country's companies, while Level 1 finds that 15% of a nation's companies are expected to suffer a Y2K-related mission-critical failure.

Gartner also predicted corporate failure rates by Industry:

Level 1 (15%): Insurance, Investment services, Banking, Pharmaceuticals, Computer Manufacturing

Level 2 (33%): Heavy Equipment, Aerospace, Medical Equipment, Software, Semiconductors, Telecom, Retail, Discrete Manufacturing, Publishing, Biotechnology, Consulting

Level 3 (50%): Chemical Processing, Transportation, Power, Natural Gas, Water, Oil, Law Practices, Medical Practices, Construction, Transportation, Pulp & Paper, Ocean Shipping, Hospitality, Broadcast News, Television, Law Enforcement

Level 4 (66%): Education, Health care, Government Agencies, Farming & Agriculture, Food processing, Construction, City & Town Municipal Services.

As you can see, the good news is that South Korea as a country is at Level 2. The not so good news is that the power industry as a whole is at Level 3. I wish I could give you a guarantee there will be no disruptions, but we don't have that guarantee even in the U.S.

I do not think you're going to be abandoned in any way by the U.S. military, however. And I do have some good tips for you, so listen up soldier.

Make *sure* you always put a copy of your travel orders right inside your duffle and each and every piece of luggage you take. I personally know several soldiers whose luggage was rerouted to them quickly instead of being lost for weeks just because they followed that simple instruction.

Save *every* piece of paper the military gives you. Save issue receipts, save turn-in receipts, save pay slips, save it ALL. If you're not the organized type, just get a box and throw it all in there. But keep that paperwork! Even without Y2K possibly messing up computer personnel systems, keeping paperwork has kept a lot of military butts out of trouble, believe me. Keeping paperwork applies to your wife, too, so be sure she knows.

You should make copies of your military records and make sure your wife has a copy, as well as yourself. You each should also have a copy of your own birth certificate and your children's, and your marriage certificate. Pay attention to details and keep an eye out for any errors on monthly pay slips, etc. Make sure your wife's ID card is up to date. Make sure she knows someone who can direct her to the appropriate military help if she has any problems.

Then stand easy, go do what you've got to do, and think positively. Remember "Adapt. Improvise. Overcome."

All best wishes to you!

-- Anonymous, January 30, 1999

Bonnie: Great advice. But shouln't we also be thinking of how to make sure that all military, State Dept, AID consultants, etc. get warned about going to e.g., Poland, for next two years? A friend of mine just got such orders to leave Feb 1, and his company gave him no advice about whether it was a good idea to take his family...Seems unconscionable...

-- Anonymous, January 31, 1999

Fred, you've given a good example of a duality I find in dealing with the Y2K problem. I think at this point, anyone who has at least heard of the Year 2000 computer date problem also admits that there *could* be disruptions in various places. Our government admits that. Our government had stated through various spokespersons that there are serious concerns about disruptions in other countries around the globe. NERC admits there are no guarantees there won't be regional power outages. Certainly by now corporations have evidenced plenty of awareness.

Yet there is still a "business as usual" mindset which is very prevalent in public and corporate life. I see companies who spend lots of money every year paying for expert prognostications about the political status of various countries they have subsidiaries in, or the economic outlook, or the available labor force, or the agricultural productivity predicted for the next year. All so they can get a possible advantage in the direction their business should go to maximize profits. But in most cases the public has to guess whether they've done enough to fix their computer systems so they'll function properly next year. (Or this year, for that matter.)

Last week when I read about the earthquake in Columbia, I was rather sickened, to tell the truth, that after one article spoke of possible thousands of people dead, it also mentioned that the coffee crop appeared to be undamaged so prices would not go up for U.S. consumers. Dear God, what has happened to us if the media thinks the public only cares about the price of coffee? Or does the media have the correct take on the concerns of the average American?

We have the media and business worrying about coffee prices after a catastrophe has happened, but hardly anyone appears to be factoring in the possible consequences of Y2K failures around the globe. We can read about hog futures, and coffee futures, and grain futures every day of the week, but any risk factors for individuals - such as the one you mentioned - are not even thought about for the most part.

Yet, when those who are aware of all the vast interconnective problems which might occur because of Y2K *dare* to try to warn others that some prudent preparation would be a beneficial thing to do in view of the risks and unknown factors, then they get vilified as alarmists. It's an incredibly sad state of affairs, in my opinion, when those who are focusing on individual and community safety factors, like heat in the winter and an available water supply, somehow become the bad guys and those who worry about coffee prices and and productivity and tax bases have the *high* ground in corporate morality.

I am not against free markets or capitalism, but to my mind the pendulum has swung so far towards money being some kind of god which takes precedence over all other aspects of life, that there is no longer any balance left and rationality is taking a back seat to that "business as usual" mentality. I try to only cuss inside my own head, and keep my rants to myself, but you hit on something which really gets my goat.

Sometimes I wonder if I'm going to read or hear something next year about a business who lays off all their employees and the focus of the article will be on the drop in stock price. Or will I read about a town whose population is desperate to find enough clean drinking water and the focus will be on who's going to sue whom for not making sure the purification plant would function properly after 2000? And those are likely the least of the possible consequences. I've already read about how "well" the southern ice storm electrical outages were handled and how quickly things were repaired. (Under a month.) But there were people who still DIED in that outage. We can't know when an act of nature will strike, but we can and do know that Year 2000 problems will occur.

The Y2K "alarmists" that the media pokes fun at are thinking about PEOPLE and basic safety. For crying out loud, WHAT IS SO WRONG ABOUT THAT? !@#$%^&*

-- Anonymous, January 31, 1999

Bonnie,

Attention is the grand currency of the media. The people who run the media want only to capture and hold your attention. As long as they have your attention they can sell it to advertisers. Without your attention they have nothing to sell.

I think most of us are concerned about the people in Columbia. I think some people, upon hearing the news, would switch channels to find out about the coffee crop if they didn't hear about it right away, commodity traders for example.

I don't believe the media has the correct take on the concerns of the average American. I believe the media has the correct take on what will get and hold the attention of the largest number of Americans, (or at least those of their target audience).

Sometimes it seems the whole world is competing for my attention but I only have so much to go around! If attention were money you can call me broke! It doesn't surprise me there is such an epidemic of so- called attention deficit disorder. (speaking of A.D.D., brings to mind thoughts of a bajillion people going without their prozac or ridlin or other "stay calm" drugs this time next year.).

I do believe the media in general is very irresponsible. Wasn't it William Randolph Hearst who instigated our entering the Spanish American war just to have something to write about, so he could sell newspapers?

A piece of good news here; I've heard that television audience is shrinking as internet useage goes up. More folks communicating with one another. More independence of thought, (even if it's to pursue a chosen hobby or hang with some special interest group).

I agree with you that things are out of balance. I also believe nature has some sort of "divine" tendency to put things into balance one way or another. Nature isn't out of balance, we are.

Many of us are not going about our lives with a "business as usual" mentality. There are very many very good people doing what they can to "make it better". I believe you are one of those people. I can tell by the things you write about and what you have to say.

Intenionally or not, I guess the media does poke fun at me, although I don't consider myself an alarmist. (Truth be told, no matter how calmly and serenely I try to speak to others about y2k, it must sound alarming anyway.) But like you mention, my concern is for people and basic safety and there is nothing wrong with that.

I feel a sense of scorn at times when I mention y2k. I'm not sure why. Maybe the person thinks I'm one of the ones who has lots of guns and ammo? Probably got a radiation suit stashed in the basement too? Whatever it is it is there. It's like a wall you don't get through and you aren't welcome to lean against.

Consider the Special Interest Group; "People concerned about Y2K". Some of them have run for the hills and are telling others to do the same. Of course that gets much more attention than those of us who quietly research the issues and methodically prepare to weather a coming storm of unknown magnitude. Not much "value" in that. At least not for the media.

Combine A.D.D. with the competition for the leftover attention we have in our lives and Joe Average keeps up with the world through what amounts to an intravenous drip of soundbites.

That goes for the people running the media too! Probably doubly so. Who has the time to evaluate the importance of the information they're taking in? "Y2K? Oh, computer stuff. Not my domain. Next..."

I asked the CFO of a billion dollar public company if she had any concerns about the Y2K bug and her reply was; "I'll take care of my job and let them take care of theirs." About a month later the SEC forced her to make a Y2K preparedness statement on her 10Q. She said she used boiler plate and plagiarized off another companies 10Q. She makes a six figure income, she takes work home, she's a single mother, feeds her kid raviolis from a can. She just ain't got time for no Y2K stuff. (I'll put a bag of dried beans aside for her and hope her kid can stomach such food if it comes to that.)

I think we all get angry with the current state of affairs. Everyone of us can agree with your outrage. Remember Steve Martin in Roxanne? When he picked up the newspaper from the vending machine and the news was so bad he paid another quarter just to put the paper back in the machine? I loved that scene. It reminded me I don't have to buy it.

Steve

-- Anonymous, February 01, 1999

By now it is almost old news, but there have been a couple of reports that the US State Department has published a generic caution about potential Y2K problems with year end travel with indications that more specific statements will published later in the year.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/tc/story.html?s=v/nm/1999 0130/tc/millennium_2.html

points to a Reuters version of the story. If you have not already seen it, it might be worth a read.

Jerry

-- Anonymous, February 02, 1999