from c.s.y2k 1/27:

On 27 Jan 1999 00:54:38 GMT, mshulman@ix.netcom.com(Moshe Shulman) wrote:

>Where is the wave Info? Please forgive me as I do not mean this >personnaly. There is a certain respect that fellow geeks have for one >another, and you (and Cory) certainly desire that respect. But Geeks >are notoriously out of touch with the real world. We are nearing the >end of January and not one show stopper. The question you should ask >youself is why?

The failure rate _did_ increase at the beginning of January, and some of the failures were serious enough to put the affected systems out of business for an extended period of time and requiring temporary manual replacements. This includes the unemployment systems of some states and, IIRC, a couple of medical insurance systems.

I have never said that the January failures would cause the big collapse, I said they would lead toward it with an ever increasing rate of failure as we get closer to Y2K itself. I still stand by that. In fact, I predict another increase of failures in the next few days as the first month end processing of 1999 is performed and there will be another peak at the end of the first quarter.

The point is that as more and more systems fail completely, in the sense of requiring the long term fix of actual remediation (e.g. the unemployment systems), the failures themselves will consume more and more of the increasingly scarce resources available to deal with the failures and the ongoing process of Y2K itself. These resources include programmers, temporary manual workers and money.

I am convinced that at some point the rate of failures will be so high that there will not be enough resources to deal with the problems. At this point the web will collapse and so will the structure of society. I think it entirely possible that this will occur _this_ year, before the rollover itself. Not because the rate of failures will be extremely high, but rather through the concomitant effect of a collapse of the global economy, a process which I believe is already underway. When the economy tanks, there won't be enough cash available to finish the ongoing remediation projects and they will add to the huge number of systems which will fail _after_ the rollover.

If it were just Y2K I would still be concerned, but not quite so much. But "it's the economy, stupid!" (nothing personal). The two together will feed on each other -- the economic collapse will cause Y2K failures to be worse and the Y2K failures will make an economic recovery impossible, leading eventually to the devolutionary spiral I have predicted. In many ways I am _more_ concerned about the economy, which I see as in _much_ worse shape than in 1929, just before the Great Depression. And this time I see no way out.

===================================== y 2 0 0 0 @ i n f o m a g i c . c o m =====================================

For this reason God sends them a powerful delusion so that they will believe the lie and so that all will be condemned who have not believed the truth but have delighted in wickedness.

(2Th 2:11-12)

================

hmmm...maybe Info needs to have dinner with Peterhead deJager.

-- a (a@a.a), January 28, 1999

Answers

Thanks, Info. I guess we can discontinue the forum now.

-- dave (wootendave@hotmail.com), January 28, 1999.

Thanks a,

Andy

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 29, 1999.

Sounds like some folks are getting desparate for bad news. And April 1 just a few weeks away.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), January 29, 1999.

50 of the largest companies in the country change to fiscal year 2000 on Feb. 1st. This also will not cause collapse however, it will cause turmoil wihtin these companies.

-- Steve Watson (swatson1@gte.net), January 29, 1999.

too true Paul D.!

You know what I find ironic? the term "dwgi". I guess it's supposed to mean "doesn't want to get it"...and the pollygertrudes try to use that term on non-gloomers? Aren't they the ones who 'don't want to get it'? (I personally like the term 'dwgi'... to me it reads "don't want garbage input"!)

Why in the world anybody would believe infomercial in the first place is beyond me... I guess that's just what happens when people do research on the 'net and become self-appointed 'experts'

-- Knothead Ken (woodywoodbutcher@hotmail.com), January 29, 1999.

How do your comments help me prepare?

-- Butt Nugget (likeyou@care.com), January 29, 1999.

Buttnugget,

exactly what is it that you are preparing for?!?

-- Knothead Ken (woodywoodbutcher@hotmail.com), January 29, 1999.

Whatever the IT gurus state consists of their expertise. I, a simple factory worker, await the eventual collapse of the Japanese economy. This will be the last straw which will collapse the firmest firewall buffering these United States. I think Y2K might be the trigger which will make Japan falter and pull other nations into a total global collapse. There are many fearful Earthlings in the Asian nations who have no hope. Are you near a fresh spring of water?

-- dinosaur (bumblepuff@hotmail.com), January 29, 1999.