try to maximize the positive.... and minimize the negative....

greenspun.com : LUSENET : Electric Utilities and Y2K : One Thread

Steve,

with respect to your question about the companies that are compliant (or almost) fully compliant, please take a look at this article regarding the year 2000 problem in Canada, it might cheer you up a little bit.

http://www.wired.com/news/news/politics/story/17467.html

I also would like to invite everybody following this forum with positive news to come out here and tell some optimism y2k stories, since everybody else seems to be so pessimistic.

Anyway, I will be collecting more information to support my opinions in the following days.

Sincerely

Carlos Fernandez

-- Anonymous, January 28, 1999

Answers

Carlos,

I've read the article and when I read "The findings are based on an ongoing survey of Canadian power utilities and their progress according to the readiness milestones laid out by the North American Electric Reliability Council, or NERC, in its own Y2K report, issued earlier this month." I decided to wait for you to send factual data from the trenches before getting too cheery.

Thanks Carlos but the validity of the NERC report has been brought into serious question. Some say the NERC report amounts to dis-information.

I'd rather hear how it really is from the technicians such as yourself. If it really is positive news then by all means, bring it on and let us dispell these pessimistic feelings. Good news, from you and everyone else would be a very welcome breath of fresh air.

I've said earlier I am a lay person with enough sense to be concerned about the situation but not enough industry knowledge to settle those concerns. I rely on people such as yourself to pass on the real information, not opinions.

Thanks for your input.

Steve

-- Anonymous, January 28, 1999


Hi Carlos,

The problem with only trying to look at the positive side of things is you get lulled very easily into the belief that everything is okay.

I like to use an analogy of a glass of water. If you need a full glass of water to survive, and the glass is only half full, whether you look on it as being half full or half empty doesn't change the fact that you're not going to make it. Each successful remediation is a single drop in the glass. The only real question is whether or not the glass will be full when the time comes...

Jon

-- Anonymous, January 28, 1999


With respect to the Canadian report:

I am a Canadian. I live in Alberta, and TransAlta is my power company. I believe TransAlta will almost certainly get their remediation done in plenty of time. They're one of the few utilities that's really on the ball with respect to Y2K.

Yet, I'm still preparing for a disaster. Why? It's fairly simple, actually. Even if the lights somehow manage to stay on in Alberta, do you honestly believe for a *second* that if the lights go out south of the border, they (the Canadian Utilities) will continue providing us with power as if nothing happened? And even if they do, how long will that last, with chaos and anarchy to our south?

I'm not saying that's going to happen, but people that look at isolated systems or isolated areas and say "we're okay" are kidding themselves. You need to look at the big picture, and that includes other countries, other industries, and how second-order, third-order, fourth-order, and so-on effects will affect you and the suppliers you depend on.

This isn't school, where 50% is the pass grade, and people who try real hard get an "A" for effort. Systems either work or they don't, and if our society's remediation level isn't very close to perfect, we're going to be in big trouble.

Jon

-- Anonymous, January 28, 1999


Jon, just a comment regarding TransAlta. You are right about them being on top of things. While attending EPRI and other "utility-get-togethers" I was impressed with the knowledge TransAlta personnel had on the subject. As an example, they were the first group to discuss the issue of over-generation with me (say the lights do go out south of the border but they were ok).

Now knowledge and action are different different items, but they sure talk a good game.

-- Anonymous, January 28, 1999


Hi Carlos,

I agree with Jon Hylands to face Y2K as it is, not to force it to the positive side. In this project you must have an attitude to look at the negative side: What can go wrong ? The most ugly question is: Are you sure that you didn't overlook something ? That is the reason why we do a shadow inventory in all our power plants. I will also thank you for taken us to the bright side of Y2K-projects.

-- Anonymous, January 29, 1999



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