Hi everyone,

I would like to cheer up all those catastrophists out there and let them know that the situation is not that bad; I am myself working on the year 2000 project for an electric utility and we are keeping our schedule alright and fixing most of our systems on time; besides, there are several companies throughout the world that have already finished the year 2000 work and are fully compliant, to the extent that they are actually working on that date already and didn4t experience ANY problem at all; being from Europe I can also tell you that we had a lot of pessimistic people talking about the adaptation of our systems to the new currency, the Euro, and our systems didn4t have any problem. I remember some website where I read that it was going to be a mess and stuff like that: it is working as smooth as a Harley Davidson. Maybe the situation in the US is more serious since you guys are more advanced in the automation than us here, but I think worrying about nuclear plants, railways, etc is maybe going overboard, I mean, those people out there in the nuclear plants know what they are doing, they have had contingency plans for everything earlier than computers were invented, after all it4s them who are risking their lifes everyday so they will make sure everything is safe; so I think people should calm down and not listen to those alarmist messages that after all are not based on any scientific or rational evidence, the point being that when you are facing an uncertain situation is always better to be optimistic than pessimistic if you want to come through it succesfully. Hope that helps.

Carlos Fernandez

-- Anonymous, January 28, 1999

Answers

I agree that this forum isn't turning up a whole of of positive indicators regarding the electric utilities. I'm glad you inserted one or two Carlos. Perhaps you could give us more information on the "several companies in the world that have already finished the year 2000 work and are fully compliant.... and didn't experience ANY problem at all".

If those companies have very complex systems perhaps you could walk us through the steps involved in discovering they had no problems. I think that would be very reassuring to all of us. How many embedded chips did they test? How many were in the entire system? How long does it take to fix a circuit once a bad chip is found? How much time did it take to do the whole thing?

One of the things we are finding so frustrating is to have this humongous number of potentially bad embedded chips and no one knows where they are. We get the idea they are sprinkled liberally throughout our systems and that they are difficult to find and fix.

Positive news would tell us some actual figures like; # chips found, # chips found defective, # time it takes to fix the defect in the system, etc...

Positive would also tell me if the chip/problem were not found in time and the system failed, how long it would take to have found and fixed it after system failure.

You see Carlos, we are somewhat distrustful of our "authorities", keep in mind our president is on trial for not telling the truth.

Please do contribute all positive news you can find to this forum. We definitely do want to know the reality of the situation. Another posting on this site says it comes down to trust. Reagan said trust but verify. Since you work on Y2K for an electric utility you are in perhaps the best position to tell it like it is. Please elaborate.

Steve

-- Anonymous, January 28, 1999

Carlos,

I like that song. It comes from the brilliant movie "Live of Brian". He lived Y2K ago. And now something completely different.. I am also working on the year 2000 project for a power generation company in Holland and we are almost done. We have found almost nothing in embedded systems. We have replaced a few, but mostly because the manufacturer or supplier dit not test old versions.

The bright side is that we have now updated our systems, so it should be better than before.

-- Anonymous, January 28, 1999

I have to admit you got me laughing a lot over the song, "Always look on the bright side of life". I remember the comedy movie it originated from and the scene where all the men crucified up on crosses are singing "look on the bright side" with gusto. It was a Monty Python film and the song was a parody on cockeyed optimism.

I agree with Carlos and Menno in that some of the concerns about Year 2000 problems are being overblown. There is one aspect being overlooked in the comparison between your countries and the U.S., however. As Carlos mentioned, we do use more automation and digital systems in every part of our infrastructure than most other countries, but we'll put that aside, because we also supposedly have more technical expertise in same.

The difference is size and integration. When you speak of your country's utilities doing well in Year 2000 progress, it's more equivalent to us looking at one of our 50 states. If I remember my geography lessons, you could take all of Europe and plunk it down in the U.S. and have lots and lots of room left. So the question becomes, would you be so confident about a no problem scenario if your countries were inextricably connected by electrical grid to ALL other European nations, plus some other areas like the Ukraine? (to make up the size factor)

Our Washington Post newspaper recently ran an intelligence assessment and this was mentioned: "There appears to be little cross-border cooperation and the Netherlands "has threatened to cut off its power grid from the rest of Europe in order to protect domestic power distribution from external problems," Gershwin said."

I don't think it's a stretch to assume that while some European utilities are progressing in their Year 2000 work, others might not be doing so well. It's the same for us here. Utilities in some areas are doing much better than others. But THEY ARE ALL CONNECTED. A problem in one place can create problems in another place. The evidence we have available here shows that there are still plenty of areas where problems exist. If what I've read about Germany buying power from Russian nuclear plants (which have stated they will fix on failure), and other European countries buying power from each other is true, then you also have problem areas regardless of how well the remediation is going in individual plants.

I am not personally concerned about the ability of U.S. nuclear plants to perform a safe shutdown if that became necessary. I do not have the same confidence about Russian nuclear plants, but that's another story. The reason it remains wise for individuals to prepare for possible power outages and other disruptions is that the interconnected network of systems in our country is too vast to expect everything to be fixed and perform perfectly. Knowing that the power is on 500 miles away won't help keep the family warm whose power is out in their area. There is not a single utility in this country which is not concerned about the possibility of problems from outside their own area of accountability.

Humans are not perfect. There will be things missed, or not fixed correctly, or time will run out before everything can be completed. Whether those things missed will create a major problem or just a slight one, we won't know until 2000. The way I "look on the bright side" is to know that I am prepared to withstand a possible power outage or other disruptions - whether they happen or not. I am not for panic. I am for calm preparation.

-- Anonymous, January 28, 1999

Bonnie,

You are welcome to visit our latest in technology power plant build by Alstom in Eems (NL)to compare the state of automation. In week 7 we are testing block 6 with the supplier. In this test we are setting the clock forward to 31 december 1999. When the system is synchronised, that takes hours, the block will be started and running for a couple of days.

Of course you have right that Europe is a little bit smaller than the U.S. but it is also connected. I think that the problems are the same, but the projects are different. We have no NERC, we have our national projects.

About the Gershwin report: I think there must be a misunderstanding that the Netherlands have threatened to cut off its power grid from the rest of Europe in order to protect domestic power distribution from external problems. We are concerned about other european countries but not that desperate. This action will weaken both grids.

How do you prepare to withstand a possible power outage or other disruptions ? Do you buy a survival kit ?

Do you want to know my preparations ? I will buy a lot of beer, food and fireworks.

-- Anonymous, January 29, 1999

Hi everybody, Nice to see some European input to the discussions, especially from Menno who seems to be in the front line. Personally i think its too late to try and try and do much about the European wide information blackout on Y2K. Trying to raise the information/discussion level across Europe is just about impossible - just think of the language barriers, the number of national regulatory authorities. I agree that the only thing to do now is to trust and think positive when it comes to verifying. My own most likely worst case scenario is no worse than I've experienced a couple of times before. We've had wars and economic crises going off all around us most of my life - people been dying violently in their hundreds of thousands only a couple of hours from my apartment over the last 5 years. We're still here. Life plods on. Chin up!

-- Anonymous, January 29, 1999

Lawrence Gershwin is the science & technology officer for the National Intelligence Council, which reports directly to the CIA. It's unlikely that there was any "misunderstanding" in his assessment of the power grid situation in Europe, especially since it tallies with recent news reports on studies done by Cambridge University (UK) and the CIA itself.

For those offering "good news" on power companies in the U.S. and Europe, please identify the power companies you work for. Also take note of the excellent post above, in which you are asked to give some concrete, substantiated report on which systems you have tested, which have been found noncompliant, how you remediated and tested them again, etc. Testing methodologies are particularly important here.

Also, please indicate to what extent, if any, you are relying on type testing and vendor compliance statements to assess your embedded systems; the excellent technical work by Dr. Frautschi and others indicates that type testing and vendor statements can often be unreliable in these matters. I'd be especially interested to know your answers on this issue with regard to your T&D (transmission and distribution) systems.

It's worth noting that about 60 pages or so into its latest report (issued Jan. 11th), even NERC warns that it cannot rule out a "catastrophe" (their word, not mine), though NERC thinks this is "highly unlikely." NERC also warns about the dangers of type testing and relying on vendor statements, especially for embedded components in distribution systems. Are you testing individually all possibly Y2K-vulnerable components in your transmission and distribution systems? Remember that it can take up to 40 tests to check all the logic pathways of the typical (40-pin) embedded chip. Also remember that just because the specific function being performed is, say, measurement of a cycle or interval, the embedded system may still have an internal calendar function, that is, be measuring "absolute time," though in many cases that internal calendar won't have been calibrated with the Gregorian calendar and failures may thus occur weeks, months, or even years after 1/1/2000. Again, see the technical work by Dr. Frautschi, available at www.tmn.com/~frautsch/y2k2.html

Finally, please go to www.nerc.com/y2k/ and download the list entitled "Generic Inventory of Components that may be Y2K Susceptible," compiled and presumably kept updated by NERC. This list, in very fine print, runs for 44 pages and lists over 3600 items, ranging from complex systems to individual components. Some of these items are now listed as having been found compliant, some as having been found noncompliant; alas, a great many are listed as "blank," meaning that NERC simply doesn't know whether they are compliant or not! This includes many systems and components actually involved in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity; NERC describes the specific function of each item. I realize that our European friends may be using fewer or different automated systems; nonetheless, I suggest that they scan this list with care and note the vendors of each item.

Best wishes on your work.

-- Anonymous, January 29, 1999

Menno, I'd love to come take a tour of your power plant! I don't think we can get there this year, but if my brother-in-law makes another trip to Holland anytime soon, I'll pass along your invitation. My husband's grandfather emigrated here from the Netherlands and we still have extended family members there. The original name was YsKamp.

I hope you did not think that when I mentioned automation in every part of U.S. infrastructure that I was implying your technology was not top of the line. I was only referring to the vast use of computers here which affects every aspect of our daily lives.

For example, there is a huge dairy farm near us which is completely automated. The family that owns it is very concerned about a possible power outage or brownout, and is arranging for extra fuel to power their backup generators. There is not enough people on the farm to milk the cows by hand, and even if there were, it's been discovered that the cows are so used to machine-milking they won't tolerate someone doing it by hand anymore. They have computer systems which keep track of daily production, measure the amount of milk fat, cool the milk, do the sales figures, etc. and there is even an automated system which takes care of the manure produced. They are trying to make sure their computer systems do not have any Year 2000 problems, but they don't know about the status of their suppliers and the milk delivery/transportation systems. Computer connections are everywhere and electric power is vital to all. That's the reason there is such concern about our electric utilities, and the gas, oil, and coal infrastructure which supplies the fuel for those utilities.

The utilities here which have mentioned "islanding" (disconnecting from the grid) as part of their contingency plans for the Year 2000, also recognize that it is a less than optimum solution, but still include it as part of their "worst case" scenario. Perhaps that is what the Gershwin report was referring to - contingency plans in case the concerns about other countries prove to have substance.

I prepare for a possible power outage and disruptions the same way many people who live in an earthquake prone area do, or who live in an area where hurricanes are frequent, or who have gone through ice storms in the cold northern area where I live. Arrange for an alternate (non-electric) source of heat and light, and have lots of extra food and supplies on hand. I'm sure my husband is also going to have a good supply of beer for New Years Eve 2000, too! Fireworks are illegal for individuals to have in the state we live in, so when you shoot one off in celebration, the best my husband and I will be able to do is give a toast to Menno and Carlos, and wish them and their families a happy, problem free New Year.

-- Anonymous, January 29, 1999