Since I view programmers as the real experts on Y2K, I'm very interested in comments on this.

Here's the link:

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_exnews/19990125_xex_group_downpl.shtml

Probably should have posted this in comp.software.year-2000, but since electricity is the big Kahuna, I'd love to hear what you guys think.

Thanks!

-- Anonymous, January 25, 1999

Answers

MB,

If you learned from Deming, how did you come by attributing the "real expertise" on Y2K to programmers?

Why don't you consider posting at TB2000 to find out what so-called "Yourdonites" think about your query?

We don't want to distract those working on the big Kahuna, do we?

Respectfully,

Critt Jarvis

277 Beasley Road

Wilmington, North Carolina 28409

910-790-5677

-- Anonymous, January 25, 1999

MB, I am not a programmer. However, my husband has worked with both government and manufacturing companies' computer systems for over two decades. Based on his experiences to date, and my own research, many computer systems *will* fail. The major cause of those failures will be ignorance about how "a little date problem" could have much effect. What someone doesn't understand or believe could be a problem, doesn't get addressed or fixed. (Also, the assumption that all those who program or work with computers recognize the date and interconnection problems is an erroneous one in our experience.) The tally among my husband and his contacts in the IT world now shows that only 20% (yep, 2 out of ten) of the manufacturing companies they have had contact with are even checking their PC's, let alone anything else. (And many of these have international subsidiaries.) This comes down to a believe it or not situation, since insiders can give no proof of what they are seeing. You'll have to delineate between truth and rumor yourself.

There appears to be debate about whether panic will exacerbate the problems, but in our minds it is outright idiocy to believe that panic is the ONLY problem, or even the major one.

In the article you were interested in, the focus of the concerns about "panic" seemed to be that it might cause a stock market crash or banking failures. This presupposes that Y2K is the only looming problem which might impact the banking system and that everything else in the global economy is just hunky-dory. The Coalition mentioned in the article also appears to believe that the 1929 crash only happened because people panicked. This is naive in the extreme.

I submit that the many concerns being touted in the media about Y2K, re panic and banking, are a misdirection (deliberate or not, I don't know) away from the underlying instability in the economic markets which is there *without* any Year 2000 influence. It might be very convenient to have Y2K panic to blame instead of prior lousy banking practices.

Another journalist, Edward Robb Ellis, lived through the depression years, kept a journal beginning in the years prior to 1929, and wrote a book which is still in print and considered one of the best narrative histories of that era. The book is titled, "A Nation In Torment".

There is a chapter in the book called, "What Caused The Crash?" Panic is NOT listed as one of the contributors. Panic was the natural response of investors who became aware that the banking system was in severe trouble to *begin* with. Here is an excerpt from Mr. Ellis' chapter on causes:

"..findings of the impartial Brookings Institution of Washinton, D.C., after its experts had studied conditions in twenty-seven nations, including the United States. According to their report, before prosperity ended in the United States, it had terminated in eight other nations - Canada, Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Finland, Poland, Australia and the Netherlands Indies."

The International Chamber of Commerce of that era concluded that the following were what the crises could be blamed on:

"(1) overproduction; (2) decline in commodity prices; (3) world agricultural crisis; (4) industrial unemployment; (5) political unrest; (6) partial closing of several world markets, notably China and India; (7) varied bases for monetary circulation; (8) disequilibrium between short- and long-term credits; (9) fall in silver prices; (10) dumping of goods by Soviet Russia; (11) unprecedented taxation to meet international indebtedness; (12) excessive state participation in private enterprises."

Some people in the thirties did submit that "mob psychology" caused the disaster. They were countered by people such as J.P. Morgan, who whenever he was asked what the market would do always replied, "It will fluctuate." Professor Irving Fisher said, "..the market went down because it went down." William Randolph Hearst said the Depression was caused by enormous overcapitalization which had stolen billions from small investors.

For those who believe Y2K is the only problem staring us in the face, read this summation by Mr. Ellis and ask yourself if it's possible Y2K will only be the straw which breaks an already sick camel's back:

"What caused the Crash? Greedy people wanted more than they needed. Foolish people thought they could get something for nothing. Impulsive people bought now in the hope of paying later. Income and wealth were distributed unfairly and dangerously. The rich regarded themselves as an all-knowing elite. The masses were not paid enough money to consume all the goods they produced. The economy was unsound. The corporate structure was sick. The banking system was weak. Foreign trade was out of balance. Business data were inadequate and often faulty."

With all due respect to President Franklin Roosevelt, the statement "We have nothing to fear but fear itself." was a calming balm for a citizenry which DID have plenty to be afraid of, and were being asked to PREPARE for hard times ahead.

In my opinion the myriad interconnection disruptions possible from the Year 2000 problem are as real as this keyboard I'm typing at. They are not the only problems facing the world, however, nor will Y2K be the *only* source from which possible woes might emanate. We can learn from history, but will we?

-- Anonymous, January 25, 1999

Thanks Bonnie.

Sorry Critt :(

-- Anonymous, January 25, 1999

Thanks :-)

~C~

-- Anonymous, January 25, 1999

Bonnie,

Your wealth of information continues to amaze me.

Were I nearly as well informed I'd pontificate for a line or two on fractional reserve banking, (who's fractions have indeed sunk incredibly low!), the current trend of dis-inflation threatening to become full fledged deflation, the ever rising disparity between the haves and the have nots... and generally back up your points about doubtful conditions in our systems, (computerized and other wise).

About the fractions of money held in reserve in our banks... I've been wondering if it was wise of the Red Cross to recommend each of us withdraw a weeks worth of cash. Talk about a shaky system not needing undue pressure put on it at this time.

-- Anonymous, January 25, 1999

Yo, Crit. Probably not worth wasting your time on, but what's a ~C~ ?

I know a :). I know a :(.

I am hopelessly ill-informed about many things. Maybe that's because we've all left the farm to become specialists. Who knows? (Dunno much about that either.)

Thanks.

-- Anonymous, January 25, 1999

Son of "Yo Crit."

I had a brain cramp. 'Should have said,

"I know AN :). I know AN :(."

Whoops.

Lead us on, troops.

-- Anonymous, January 25, 1999

My studies would fully support Bonnie's comments. Turns out that falling commodity prices have been the main harbinger of economic contraction for the last five centuries. When prices for raw goods fall in terms of constant dollars, a correction has always resulted - quite literally. If I remember correctly, economic growth returns when commodity prices have been rising for 5 quarters or more. This has repeated itself approximately every 60 years for 500 years. I should hasten to add that this trend is not necessarily causal, i.e. it didn't cause the contraction; it just happens to be a great indicator. (See James Davidson, Adam Smith, and others for a full treatment.)

Today, commodity prices have been falling and are still falling. A small Y2K push might just be the final causal action.

-- Anonymous, January 25, 1999

Back to your original question, what's worse:

1. Panic buying at the grocery store or the absence of something to buy at the store because of y2k disruptions? 2. Panic withdrawing of money at the bank or the inability to exchange currency electronically worldwide or to/from your account? 3. Panic filling of water containers for storage or the absence of water at the faucets nationwide since the electricity has been off for 7 days?

I'll take a little panic risk to inform the public any day. The more INDIVIDUALS make personal preparation, the better it will be for society as a whole.

-- Anonymous, January 27, 1999

Our "fearless" leaders in government seem unwilling to give us a choice on that. Evidently that absolutely plan to see there is no "panic". They must not care that many will go unprepared as long as there is no "panic". (They might lose "control"). Sheesh!

READ THIS ARTICLE http://www.wired.com/news/news/politics/story/17527.html

I rest my case.

LindaO

-- Anonymous, January 27, 1999

Panic is a very real and dangerous phenomenon. Underestimating the power of panic is no less a threat to your well being than underestimating the potential for crisis due to the Y2K bug.

Generally I think of panic as referring to an individual or maybe a handful of people but when a large group of people panic it is a riot.

I've survived several riots, they are very ugly. .

I hope I can diminish the likelyhood of a riot starting by not being in a position of wanting to fight for a can of beans at the last minute. At the same time I don't care to be denigrated for "stockpiling". It's not like the whole Y2K thing has been hidden from the public all this time.

Panic is a very real danger. We all have a responsibility to NOT participate in something like that, (unless you want to bash heads and have your head bashed in turn).

This forum isn't turning up a heck of a lot of positive news as we dig deeper into the issues. In fact, in addition to NOT being able to dismiss our fears we are finding the sort of half truths and outright dis-information that leads to the sort of social dissatisfaction with the status quo that breeds riots.

It's one thing to talk about or read about riots. It is quite another to live through them. Personally I'd rather read about something else and talk about brighter tomorrows to come.

In years to come some of us might be telling stories of being without for a little while. Some might tell of working together to get through it. Some might be hiding the fact they had far more than enough to get by on while refusing to assist a neighbor or stranger. Some might be telling of bashing heads and being bashed and telling it with relish!

The truth is panics and riots do happen. You and I do not need to be a part of them. Of course, if you do choose to participate in a riot then by all means bash with the best of them and keep it to yourselves.

-- Anonymous, January 27, 1999

I guess my problem is the issue of what will cause the panic. I think if the government tries this "spin"/"PR" approach it will almost certainly create panic at the last minute because they can only hide the truth so long.

I was in public school during President Kennedy's face-off with Khruschev...the missle crisis. We were told the truth. We could be bombed. We were drilled on what to do at school and at home. We were scared, no one panicked. We all worked together and made it.

Churchill in World War II kept England working together during very real bombing attacks and all kinds of horror. Few panicked and rioted. They trusted the leaders of the country and they worked together.

In this case none of the above is present. This is what will lead to panic....

Read the article...http://www.wired.com/news/news/politics/story/17527.html

Sorry that this thread is digressing off the topic of electric utilities. However, I think, knowing the utility crisis we must fight for the information and truth in order to "stay calm".

LindaO

-- Anonymous, January 27, 1999

I am doing the Dope Slap, as in How could I have been so Stupid? Everyone in this forum knows what it means, because they are aware of an historic cast of characters that includes, Moe, Larry and Curly.

At first blush this will seem off-the-thread. Its not. Here is the bottom line.

All of you who are attempting to remediate this problem are doing great work. I cheer you on in your efforts.

But, all of you who are posting in this forum need to be aware that you are being monitored. Why?

Because its the World Wide Web.

I repeat: World Wide Web.

Electricity is the big one in the potential scenario that may unfold in the United States. If the grid goes down, the United States tanks. Extremists groups want us to tank. Extremists groups want us to believe we have lost faith in our government. Hello? Anyone following this line of thinking?

How do I know you are being monitored? Because I have worked many sides of the public fence. News reporter, public relations practioner and high school teacher. I love history, because it teaches us about ourselves, as in, In times like these, remember there have always been times like these. I am also a mother and a devoted wife. Ive only been married one time. I will be married to my current husband until the day he dies. He is a pain in the ass. I am a pain in the ass. We will stay together until the day either one of us dies.

I first learned about the potential dangers of to our society (Bottom line: that means ME),my first thought was Oh My God! I started checking the Congressional testimony, etc., the major market newspapers etc. Over time, I realized, this thing could tank everything. It scared me because I understand systemic thinking. I learned systemic thinking from Dr.. W. Edwards Deming, the guy who taught the Japanese the importance of quality. I understand how that philosophy was not accepted in the United States until the US auto industry itself tanked in the 1970s.

More importantly, I understand Thomas Edison, because I have visited his replica laboratory (over and over again), at the Henry Ford Museum in Dearborn, Michigan. I understand the reasons Henry Ford and Thomas Edison were so closely connected--and believe me--between the two of them--they were the ones who revolutionized America and gave us the so-called middle class. (Heres a little unknown tidbit--ala maybe the Who cares? genre, but both of them believed in reincarnation. Thats a fact.)

So who were these broad thinkers who brought us to where we are right now?

They are the people who have led us to this problem.

I believe the public awareness on this issue is about to hit critical mass.

I say this for one reason. All of you who read or post in this forum need to realize that you are shaping public opinion, as in WORLD OPINION!

Keep that in mind as you read the next headline in your local newspaper, or here or anywhere. As you continue your work in the trenches, please understand that whatever you say will be read by key policy makers. Here, and EVERYWHERE!

My personal dope-slap enlightenment on this issue?

The absolute realization (duh) people will make money and/or advance their power based on every word you say. Not just people, but the wealthiest people in the world who have already set you up, and you dont even know how they did it. Thats why they are the wealthiest people in the world. You are posting. You are concerned. People are responding to your posts because they are concerned. Computer prices have fallen and more people will be posting, and reading and as they do--they may become more concerned.

Dope slap quote of the day: Follow the money.

Geez, Louise.

P.S. Im not posting anymore. Anywhere. Anytime. Never did it before this issue. I certainly wont do it from here on. I have finally gotten it. From now on, I will discuss this with the people that matter to me: face to face. Im off the Web. Why? Because if everything tanks these will be the only people who matter to me. Period. And there you have it. The American Red Cross has guidelines to help you protect your family. They are common sense guidelines. We should all be doing this anyway. Period.

I thank you all for helping me educate myself about this issue. And in the meantime, "Buy some beans!."

God bless all of you.

-- Anonymous, January 28, 1999