You tell me if this is a major problem!

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

I was emailed this today - the original was much longer. This is a snippet from a Rick Cowles thing.

_____________________________________________________________________ A cursory inventory search at one electric utility turned up some interesting uses for programmable logic controllers:

An Allen-Bradley SLC100 being used on a 500KV (!) Line Carrier Checkback and Remote Trip logic circuit (for the non-technical, this is in a transmission and distribution facility) Five Allen-Bradley PLC 5/25's, model 1785LT being used as redundant controllers in a radioactive waste process in a nuclear power plant. A scan of theAllen-Bradley Corporation PLC Y2K Compliance information reveals that both of the above PLC models are, indeed, Y2K compliant. In fact, over 90 percent of A-B's embedded controls have been tested and determined to be unaffected. However, there's another 8 or 10 percent of A-B PLC's and support equipment that aren't compliant or that require a workaround. Now, this small percentage may not seem to be a lot to worry about, but let's put that percentage in a perspective of magnitude. Over the years, millions of A-B controls have been sold in the industrial world. 8 or 10 percent of a million is still a very large number. ______________________________________________________________________

http://domino.automation.rockwell.com/webstuff/y2k.nsf/Pages/Brands-Allen-Bradley-Known+Issues?OpenDocument

The above link is to AB's issues page. Issues 1 through 3 deal with the only Y2K issues in the entire AB PLC series. All the rest are control panels and such. You tell me if they are show stoppers!

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), January 22, 1999

Answers

Our shop uses Allen-Bradley in manufacturing. Most issues with AB (and you're correct, they're small) are that Feb 29, 2000, is not a recognized date.

I don't know much about you, Paul, but I do know that everyone regards you as pollyanna. For our shop - is this a show-stopper? No... we may forsake production on this one day as a contingency plan. In the meantime, congratulations - you may have found one item with no big problem. I'm sure like everyone who has their mind made up on this issue, you're going to seize things that cotton to your way of thinking. Personally, I've gone rural already and expect it to be nasty. The programmers I know in the (pop. 250,000) city's utilities have all bought their wood stoves in the last three months. I imagine it wasn't AB's minor issues that prompted this action.

-- Brett (savvydad@aol.com), January 22, 1999.


It appears - and I got to be a little reserved about even assuming this much - that the original embedded chip problem (1-2% failing times 10 billion) may be 0.5-0.2% failures times 100 milllion). Problem is, even at that much smaller number, I won't assume that the failures themselves are insignificant.

many fewe than originally projected, but one is enough to stop a production line or chemical refinery - until it is found, reset, or replaced. And each step takes time -- compounded by the probable "masking" of the real failure by dozens of conflicting symptoms from unrelated failures/alarms/shutdown signals.

Three Mile Island, for example, was caused by a stuck relief valve, venting plant water to an enclosed inner oom in the containment building. Easy to find, easy to isolate, easy to recover from. If the operators knew it was the one valve open. But the signal light showing possible flow though the valve was hidden, and dozens of other "more important" alarms were also blaring.

So the result was the core melted, instead of one valve being found and shut. Hundreds were killed in Bhopal India when a single valve was left open in a chemical plant.

Contributing to the delay and impact is that each chip (or board or assembly, or part) must be replaced with a exact matching replacement - so the piece will electrically "fit" into the current unit. So replacement parts - regardless of how many actually are required, may be very difficult to replace in time.

Example - if a GM Oxygen sensor were somehow Y2K incompliant - you could not replace it with a Ford O2 sensor - you'd have to wait until GM built enough new sensors to give you one. So even if you had 24 Toyota O2 sensors, all your GM cars and trucks would still be shutdown, or disabled.

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), January 22, 1999.


Well this is what is killing me here - it takes time to track these reports down to mfr web sites or primary sources. And after I spend the time - I find the problem either doesn't exist, has been fixed (like the famous Hawaii power problem), or is about 1% of the size being claimed. Which is why I posted this. If I start posting and debunking all the bad stories I get sent or see - my life is over as far as getting away from the web is concerned. I have about decided to try though - for a little while, anyway. Sometimes it seems like I am the only optimist left around here.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), January 22, 1999.

Paul, keep being optimistic. Your ability to maintain your "glass half full" position is needed to maintain some sense of balance.

I may not always agree with your position but I respect it and I am even thankful for your efforts in bringing forth such good news.

However, you might want to consider the big picture and how failures worldwide and here at home might affect us very soon.

Can I ask you if you have started any preparations?

Mike ====================================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), January 22, 1999.


The answer to preparations is both yes and no Mike. Yes because I am an old country boy, and am prepared by habit for times of not getting to grocery stores or power outages. No, because I really haven't put anything into special preps for Y2K to speak of - might buy a generator for the wifes freezer - but she has been after that anyhow as we are at the end of the power line here right now and have more outages than we would like already. Short one last night as a matter of fact - another for 6 hours the week before. Weather has been awful around here lately.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), January 22, 1999.


My husband admitted to me tonight, for the first time, that he is a 3-4 on the 1 to 10 scale. I looked at him and thought of Paul.

You're a lucky man Paul, for having a wife who nags you for a generator.

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), January 22, 1999.


Paul the one thing I think most people are looking for in this forum is information. Post it, prove it, and let them deal with it, thats all you can do! Paul as one geek to another you must realize that there are still alot of wild cards out there so keep an open mind. If someone could show me that the overall picture is not so bad I would back off! Right now we just don't have enough data or a good enough crystal ball. Tman :)--<

-- Tman (Tman@keepitup.com), January 23, 1999.

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