International Association of Emergency Managers January 1999 Newsletter. Study, then post. : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

I provide this link with one caveat: I urge you go there, print it out, go somewhere quiet, and read it. Twice. After doing so, please do not criticize or otherwise alienate these folks. We need them, and they need GI's like us. These are the folks who train very hard to be professional disaster handlers. Lots of them are unpaid. A lot depends on them. Most are coming to the game late, but they seem to be quick learners. There are several fascinating articles and links. in particular, an interview with a FEMA higher-up which shows me that THEY don't know what will happen any more than we do. The difference is that it's their responsibility to handle it on a national scale. We just have to store beans and postulate. They have to be right.


I look forward to reading your assessments.

-- Lewis (, January 22, 1999



Is there a non-Adobe acrobat version?


-- Diane J. Squire (, January 22, 1999.

My aplogies for an incomplete posting.

I should have mentioned that the newsletter is in Adobe Acrobat format, and requires you to download their free reader applet. It is available at

This is worth doing if you haven't already. It's becoming a standard method of distributing formatted publications. It installs painlessly and works well.

Diane, (welcome home, BTW:-),they do not have the entire newsletter online as HTML, but they do have three articles (Y2K Session, 7 Steps and Preparedness) from it available at

And Diane and all, I stumbled over the full text of Larrry Gershwin's 1/20/1999 intelligence briefing to Horn's subcommittee (with Kosky) on

-- Lewis (, January 22, 1999.

Thanks Lewis,

Cant get the right Adobe Acrobat download for my ancient Mackie puter. -- Diane

Lewiss hotlinks:


International Association of Emergency Managers: iaem_bulletin.html

Larrry Gershwin's 1/20/1999 intelligence briefing: hornY2K2.htm

-- Diane J. Squire (, January 22, 1999.

Diane , I knew you were smart. If mac had won the marketing war, I'd be out doing honest work instead of application development...;-)

Hmmm - just had a thought about another possibility I should try.

You like Steven Wright?: (to a hitchhiker he picked up): fasten your seatbelt, I want to try something. I saw it in a cartoon once, but I think I can do it.

-- Lewis (, January 22, 1999.

Diane, I just eMailed it to you. Gotta get you an iMac! Had to copy that thing page-by-page, hope ya get a lot outta it. :)

xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx

-- Leska (, January 22, 1999.

Looks like a bunch of bureaucratic buffoons that bow to Koskinen to me. This is their idea of a "BAD" scenario (as opposed to the pollyanic "GOOD" scenario):

"The "Bad" Scenario

The second scenario is the antithesis to the first. Things are bad. There are multiple disruptions in the essential services, but the community is not in chaos. Instead, they are working together as a community to deal with the problem. I have seen this situation once, following Hurricane An-drew when the community came together to work through their problems. One resource that was available to us following the hurricane, which will not be available in a Y2K event, is the thousands of other communities who lent a hand. In this situation we will need to be self-sufficient, as every community is likely to have some degree of disruptions and different levels of chaos. We want our activities to be directed towards minimizing chaos.

In a nutshell, all Y2K compliance activities are being under-taken to reduce the potential for major disruptions. All emergency management planning activities will be directed towards minimizing chaos and moving the public to coherence. Success of compliance activities and in public coherence will move us to an area where Y2K will have the least effect on the community."

Hell, Flint's version of events is BADDER than that..

-- a (a@a.a), January 22, 1999.

Lewis & Leska,

Thanks. Felt the info was well worth reading and had great leads.

a, unfortunately most Emergency Managers don't know, what it is they don't know, about Y2K. I suggest you high-tail it on down to your local Emergency Management & Response team offices and "help" them. At this point, at certain levels, they're like kids playing blind man's bluff.

If they are totally unresponsive, then get with a local Y2K community group and focus your "spare" time there.


-- Diane J. Squire (, January 22, 1999.

I have not read it yet, but I am going ahead posting anyway because I don't like being told what to do.

-- Uncle Deedah (, January 22, 1999.

OK, it's printing now.

First take -- the lead article: Frankenstein, Dracula & Y2K: Just Another Scary Monster by Michael Martinet, Area Coordinator, Los Angeles County, California.

He writes; "Today, however, in 20 minutes on the Internet, I can know more than my father, grandfather and great grandfather combined."

This is worrisome. There is a profound distinction between knowledge and understanding.

He writes: "Our biggest job may be to instill confidence in our employees, co-workers, and citizens. This isnt something we have had to do before a disaster in the past."

His entire piece seems to be working on doing just that. This bulletin is directed to Emergency Managers, not to the general populace -- you won't find it on the newstands next to USA Today.

He writes: "Our financial systems will work. Expect to still be able to trade stocks on the major US exchanges. Dont expect to trade stocks on most other foreign exchanges, but our domestic exchanges will probably work."


"Our banking systems will work. ATMs will work. There is a high probability that some individual banks and credit unions may go bankrupt. Expect banks to honor their credit cards and checks. I wouldnt expect to do business with a bank outside the U.S. But the banking system as a whole will probably work."

He has yet to realize the global connectivity of financial systems, telecommunications, and U.S. industry. I can't imagine the consequences if next January Wall Street is up and running, but foreign exchanges are not. Interruptions in international funds transfers can shut down U.S. factories, idle workers, set off a depression. If other countries are far less prepared than ours, this seems a likely outcome.

Still -- it's a start. Way to go, guys.

-- Tom Carey (, January 23, 1999.

Uncle Deedah, drop and give me twenty ;-)

Thanks for your observations, guys. I plan to watch this publication carefully over the next year...

-- Lewis (, January 24, 1999.

Moderation questions? read the FAQ