I was wondering if anyone knowledgeable is willing to hazard a guess regarding the most likely failure scenario?

Specifically, if (in the event of Y2k power failure) systems are likely to

1) Fail all at once, immediately upon rollover, or

2) Fail in a delayed, piecemeal fashion, as the individual routines/clocks/chips in various systems get messed up.

I realize it's anybody's guess, but was interested those guesses.

Thanks in advance -

Roy

-- Anonymous, January 21, 1999

Answers

I read an interview with with Y2K power "expert" Rick Cowles that addressed this same question amound others. The introduction addresses Rick's qualifications with information such as:

The power industry itself obviously considers Cowles sufficiently authoritative; NERC (the North American Electric Reliability Council, the agency charged by the Department of Energy with handling Y2K and the electric utility industry) links to his Web site from their own. In addition, the President's Council On Year 2000 Conversion also links to his site.

You can find a transcript at:

http://www.cbn.org/y2k/cowles.htm

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, Paul Winter Electrical engineer and technical writer.

-- Anonymous, January 22, 1999

I suspect that a slowmotion (24-48 hour) cascade is the most likely scenario for a utility collapse. I believe Mills has published a scenario where the industry staggers along until the summer and then collapses. Distribution is the weak link for the utilities and distribution is dependent on two factors: the embedded controllers and telecomm. Of the two, my guess is that telecomm could be ultimately the weakest link. I think a simultaneous continental blackout is the least likely scenario.

-- Anonymous, January 22, 1999

Where is this scenario you reference?

I would like to see some detailed scenarios, and when I say detailed I would like to see something down to the system level like a SCADA (sp?) or EMS failure and the resulting (possible/hypothetical) domino effects.

What would happen if an EMS system failed (Y2K related failure) at a distribution center supplying large amounts of power to the grid and while it was down an ice storm caused a failure of a high voltage distribution line or substation......

What would happen if a major chunk of a high voltage distribution line got fried? (Could the above scenario cause this?) How long would it take to repair/replace it?

My desire is not to scare anyone, but I would like to see a scenario and then I would like some of the experts to tell us layman's why/how or if the section of the grid this hypothetically happened in would stay up.

What would happen if while fixing the above problems a major supplier of power to the grid decided to island it self and its service area do to say public/local-government pressure, maybe fuel supply chain problems or other Y2K problems (real or imagined)?

I know I have painted some pretty broad strokes here but I think it might help some of us laymen's struggling to understand the issues and why things happen and don't (will or won't) happen.

Thanks in advance Billh

-- Anonymous, January 23, 1999

Billh, Look at the Westergaard site where Mill's has commentary. If you read his column from beginning of 98 until now, I think you would agree his tone has become more negative. I regard him as an honorable spokesperson for the utilites. For the scenario, I mentioned regarding a summer (vs Jan) failure: see

Summer failure

My problem with Mill's 72 hour scenario(see 72 Hour ) is his assumption that the initial reason for the power loss will be easily found and corrected. If we have multiple embedded failures in a given transmission system, I think a quick fix is unlikely. We may stagger along for a couple days from serious (but not quite fatal) transmission problems and then have some final failure which brings the entire grid down. Remember, the consensus by virtually everyone is that there will be problems. We are now arguing extent. Compare that to the discussions one year ago when there were lots of proponents for no failures or very isolated failures. The current pollyannas now sound like the "alarmists" of a year ago,

-- Anonymous, January 23, 1999