Just the facts, ma'am:

1. The world isn't going to be Y2K compliant by a long shot. 2. We don't know how serious the consequences will be. .... lead to this action ----> Hope for a bump (duh) but PREPARE unceasingly for TEOTWAWKI.

This NG is a floating simulation tank and set of Y2K war games (not literally, you CIA listeners, just symbolically). Threads on chicken brooders, radios and lanterns are critical; so are the threads on Russia, financial markets, ammunition, pollyannas and handling unwelcome visitors.

And it all feeds back into the bottom line: right preparation, mental as well as physical and the mental more than the physical. If I have to scram, post Y2K, I'll leave all the in-place preparations behind on a moment's notice. Remember Lot's wife.

Simulations, to be useful, must simulate all realistic possibilities. Since Y2K < 7, minimally, is unrealistic, of course we focus instinctively in this NG on 7.5 to 10.

Paul likes to challenge us about facts. Let any pollyanna show a compelling fact (just one will do) that explains why we shouldn't prepare unceasingly for TEOTWAWKI. Ain't one.

As I've said before, I'm not really a Big Dog, just a guy with a wife, five kids and a small farm that might, if we're extremely lucky, see us through. Yeah, big/mid and small systems computer dude for 20 years, published books and articles (former Computerworld columnist long-ago, ouch), current Internet business, PhD studies in theology too, so what? Experience helps but as another thread made clear yesterday, the GIs get it in 5 seconds, whether they're geeks or mom's. I pay attention to this NG to the facts as I smell them out, not who said them or what their background was/is. Got that, mom?

There is lots of junk-noise on this NG, just like the rest of life. But this is where the Y2K leaders are hammering out 2000 and beyond. This is the real "World Y2K Council". Keep it coming. It's all part of the simulation.

And one last time, do the actual PREPARATION. Pull the trigger on everything you need now, because you'll think of 10 more things next week. Now, I said. Now. Not next week, now. Did I say now? Especially those of you just tuning in who are new GIs: it often takes 3-6 months to move from GI to actual purchases. That was okay in 97 and 98. Won't work this year, bub. NOW. AND THAT'S AN ORDER.

Most of all, stay focused on this: if Y2K turns out to be < 7, this NG absolutely did its job anyway. Let the sheeple mock. The system IS fragile. Y2K is just the biggest elephant in the room. You're not wasting a single second this year when you prepare AND take your role in the simulation tank here.

I stayed off NGs until a few months ago to focus on the physical preparation but I came to believe that preparation PLUS simulation with others is crucial.

Now, let the games continue. Heck, let them intensify. They will, you know, as the year goes on. Let's continue to beat the Christmas shopping rush.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), January 21, 1999

Answers

"Christmas shopping rush" probably ought to read the "Fourth shopping rush" don't you think, or do you actually believe the emperor will continue to be clothed for longer than 7/4??

cr

"Gotta call on the wheat!"

-- Chuck, night driver (rienzoo@en.com), January 21, 1999.

My two-cents is that the sheeple and even the markets will discount all Y2K news and failures in 99 into Christmas, based in part on the Fed doing whatever it needs to do to put a credit floor under the bubble. Greenspan hates the bubble but I think the decision has been taken that preventing Y2K panic takes precedence over anything.

This doesn't mean I'm right and you'd have to be a bozo to (not)prepare based on that flimsy reed. Not to mention, if we had a good old-fashioned panic BEFORE Y2K, it would, IMHO, lessen the chances of TEOTWAWKI afterwards.

I believe the markets, which are almost entirely in denial (hey, not just about Y2K, guys), are taking the sucker's bet that Y2K will be a bump. Will some money get out? Only the money managed by already-GIs.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), January 21, 1999.

Canus Maximus,

You are exactly right.

Remember: the bigger the bubble the louder the pop when it does go.

Greybear

- Got soap?

-- Greybear (greybear@home.com), January 21, 1999.

Thanks for the essay, Big Dog, and the bit of background on yourself. I believe posts such as yours really help the new GIs, of which we seem to be attracting scores as the days tick-tock down.

I'd like to make a suggestion, as a source to the new GIs. I've spoken with new GIs who are completely overwhelmed by the potential for destruction by y2k, and I believe your statement of "3 to 6 months to move from GI to actual purchases" is conservative; it took us about 8 months until actual purchases, and we are by no means thick-headed. My suggestion is that we, as humble Veteran GIs (anyone who "got it" before Koskinen), give some suggestions for items that should be purchased now that may be unavailable next year or prohibitively expensive. I realize most of the items will be obvious to the VGIs, but new GIs, who haven't yet reached the inner skins of the onion in their analysis, may need extra help due to time constraints.

New GIs, consider the area of the country in which you live. I live in Florida; I know I don't need to stock up on dried fruit or fruit preserves, since they are available locally from nearby farms (as well as in my backyard - the fruit, that is). I am, however, very concerned about wheat, since we rely heavily on the Northwest to provide us with our grains, and gasoline is going to go through the roof, IMHO. Also, consider items that you use that are imported, especially replacement parts (on a personal note: should I replace my trusty '91 Volvo 940 for a newer model, since we may not be able to buy imports for awhile, or import replacement parts? I've never had a problem with it up to now, my vote is no. I will, however, be sure it has all of check-ups this year and is in tip-top shape), and stock up before a problem occurs. These are just a few examples.

By helping new GIs, we can maybe head off a fraction of the problems that we're all going to face a year from now.

Jeannie Jeannie

-- jhollander (hollander@ij.net), January 21, 1999.

Well, my goodness, aren't computers interesting. My name isn't "Jeannie Jeannie." Just plain Jeannie, thank you.

-- jhollander (hollander@ij.net), January 21, 1999.

You want war games? You got it. :-) Since you don't know me let me first say I've only been a GI for like a week. Hubby has been a GI for less than a week. (Thank God in heaven he's an ally not an adversary)....when he started mocking my preperations I jokingly started singing, "You're not gettin' any wa-ter...." (Eddie Murpy--'You ain't got no ice cream' style) You should have seen the look on his face...it was the moment he GI.

Anyway here's the 'war game'. y2k comes. The jig is up. GI's have been pissed off at the negligent fiasco of Government preperation (or lack there of)for quite a while. GI's know it could have been avoided. GI's are smarter than your average bear.

Some DGI's now are GI's caught with their pants down. They are pissed off too. Among other things.

Then there are the SDGI's (still don't get its) who are pissed off because Big Brother has not sent them any money.

Do you see a pattern? Everyone will be pissed off & or terrified. Who will take care of us now? I hear alot of venom spewed at Govt. here. I totally understand. I certainly did NOT vote for Bubba myself. I have been watching our independence erode for years helped along by the propaganda & borderline mind control of our media from local news to television sitcoms. The point is;I am afraid people will want a Savior (and not the spiritual kind). Then what? Dictatorship? Smooth lies to comfort away our fears? Civl war? History supports these probable eventualities.

We must keep in mind...flawed though it is we have the greatest government on the face of this earth. Rather than start from scratch we need to be vigilent to protect our original rights the Constitution was given to ensure. We cannot abandon what countless men & women have died to protect. It would be the greatest tragedy in human history (at least one of them).

In our eagerness to "clean house" we CANNOT throw out the proverbial baby with the bathwater.

According to AleksandrI. Solzhenitsyn in his Nobel winning book The Gulag Archipelago the reason the people of Russia were so badly abused is that they didn't RESIST.

Give me Liberty or give me death.

God in Heaven please save us from promises of (any)Govt.(or person) to rescue us.

So in this war game our own family, maybe spouses, fellow GI's, may unwittingly be willing to believe any lie for the promise of order and return to our former lifesyle and services. Can we be discerning? Who will be the greatest enemy? Ourselves? Will we stand united or fall in division?

God save us from ourselves.

Deborah the Prophetess

-- Deborah the Prophetess (lwhitlat@ix.netcom.com), January 21, 1999.

Hi gang. I'm a new GI (since November)and a bit embarrassed about that. I guess I had reasons for living in a cave though. 'Was preoccupied with helping my husband start a new business and successfully battling his former employer in court at the same time.

Anyway, I "got it" immediately and my husband still doesn't. Makes things a little worrisome for me.

For those of you who are veteran GI's, have you run across anyone from Michigan who takes this whole thing seriously? For some reason, there seems to be an apathy in this state about the whole thing. Example: I spoke with a news producer recently who interviewed our Governor about the fact that a local Rabbi was encouraging his congregation to make preparations. Quoth the producer, "The Governor just laughed."

I really don't understand, especially since Detroit Edison, in its latest SEC filing, has stated it anticipates "abnormal operating conditions and service disruptions." Publicly, however (through its PR department) the utility is saying "No problem." I've yet to see a newspaper pick up on what was said in the SEC filing.

Again, I don't understand. Maybe people from this state perceive themselves to more powerful, because this is the heart of the auto industry, and if you can build a car, you can do just about anything. Maybe the newspapers don't want people to start selling their auto company stocks. Who knows?

Any UAW guys out there with concerns? Comments?

Thanks!

Former news reporter

(ask me sometime about why I'm a former. . .)

-- former news reporter (onthelakes@aol.com), January 21, 1999.

Re preparing, see my post a couple of days ago: Prepare: Doing It On 1K.

Better, start rooting through the sites that Ed Yourdon himself links to. Explore Ed's home page links to get to them. These include a bunch that talk about how best to prepare.

This isn't rocket science. Don't panic. Just get going. You need water, heat (probably), food, etc. Start with what you need for a month, not a year AND GET IT. Etc.

Get going, keep moving, get going. A little at a time, but now. And remember, we actually don't know Y2K is going to be awful, we're just preparing because it could (well) be.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), January 21, 1999.

Dear Debroh One of the greatest tragedy in history has happened !

The constitution of YOUR great goverment has been Ripped asunder !

You get Death ! Your liberty has been taken years ago .:o( Good luck in your future . Restore the constitution !

-- Mike (mickle2@aol.com), January 22, 1999.

Mike,

I just meant, the original basis of our govt. Constitution. I realize we're pretty far from that. (for those who don't reading The Stealing of America by: John W. Whitehead /Crossway Books 1983 might be a good place to start). I just can see the possibility of people accepting somthing even worse than what we have now with promises of being taken care of.

The dog hasn't been fed in years It's even worse than it appears. -Grateful Dead

I don't think the war is over yet we see it with the impeachment trial, people fighting for the rule of law vs. relativism (it depends what the definition of the word is, is.) Although if one can believe polls we may have lost and are only now suffering the final finality of the last nails in the coffin.

I guess I just don't have it all figured out just yet.

These are the things of Civil wars.

People don't care when their bellies are full, but will they when they are hungry? Hmmmmmm

eventually Truth will rein forever & ever,

Deborah

-- Deborah the Prophetess (backto@1776.usa), January 22, 1999.

Former News Reporter,

I live around the tri-county area. I work in the golf bis. The people I deal with, yuppies and b. boomers, have not got a clue and could care less about Klinton or the loss of Freedom and Liberty, and much less y2k. The most common responses are, "I would have lied to.", "world government is fine, we are already in a global economy", "I've got investments, they would never do anything like that.", "y2k will be fixed, I know, because they would never let that happen.". And it goes on and on. The UAW guys are just as brain washed. I had one tell me that if it wasn't for Klintoon I would living in a cardboard box.

There is very little hope around here for these people. Fine with me, the store shelves will be full for awhile longer in Detroit. Generators are still readily avaiable I am buying lots and lots of reach out and touch someone greeting cards for the comming holiday.

-- golfer (tri-county@doomed.com), January 22, 1999.