Cory Hamasaki: Re: Living in a science-fiction novelgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Ah but here's the difference.
On Tue, 19 Jan 1999 20:37:54, "John Galt"
> > Won't the science fiction of this era will likely be way off 50 years from > now?
> I can't help but wonder if the hyperdrive predictions are about as reliable > as the Infomagic / TEOTWAWKI type predictions. And certainly, the > speculation about the grandiose impact and effects the Y2K bug is really > nothing more than science fiction...
> Infomagic runs some numbers through his log graph spreadsheet and voila; > instead of hyperdrive, he gets TEOTWAWKI. > - JG
For G. Harry Stine's hyperdrive to become real, a couple fundamental scientific breakthroughs would have to be made. Something like the leap from a piston driven stick and fabric aircraft to a titanium alloy turbojet cruising at the edge of space but compressed into the period between 1965 and now. Start with the YF12A as the basis.
For Infomagic to come true, all it takes is a few more months of bozo's, horn-hair management, clueless pontificators, handwavers, "I've never seen a full-house 9672 Sysplex but I *know* that any software problem can be fixed in, oh, 3 or 4 hours.", wishing really, really hard, fraud in compliance statements, fakers, scammers, and denialists running amok.
We'd have to work hard and be lucky and brilliant (There's a Marilyn Monroe and Albert Einstein joke in here somewhere.) to make a G. Harry Stine hyperdrive.
If we allow ignorance and sloth to abound, the world will go Infomagic. It'll just happen and the dolts will be wandering the rubble, dazed, stupified, slack-jawed... I just pulled this rope and the roof fell in.
Lookit, I didn't follow the product-chain argument in Infomagic II but I do know that civilizations have collapsed, that events can go wacky, and that sometimes, times up.
Explain why there's fighting in Northern Ireland or on the Adriatic. Why there and not in Boston or Miami? Sometimes bad stuff happens. We're looking at a few more months of quiet and then, who knows?
cory hamasaki 348 Days, 8,358 Hours.
-- a (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 20, 1999
Why is y2k so crazy for so many of us?
We are now living in the sci-fi novels we used to read. Most people around us are alien (sorry) to the ways of thinking we're used to. And we, in contrast, already overdosed on it. (Hey -- didn't Arthur C. Clarke just chime in today on y2k? "Dave... Dave... you aren't thinking of unplugging me... are you?... Dave?")
And now we're living in a REAL sci-fi story. Sorry, I'm going to shout it. NOW WE ARE LIVING IN A REAL SCI-FI STORY! Complete with a runaway technological black box and a society in pre-panic stage. And we can't even peek at the last page to see what happens! It's like the movie where the kid reading a fantasy story finds himself in one for real. Or the husband who tries to tell his wife about the UFO he's just seen, and ends up on the road with thousands of others to a mountain in Wyoming.
These forums (fora, I know) give us our community to balance out the crazy gap between us and the DGIs (and the big chunk of DGI in each of us as we merely contemplate our known world going belly up). Denial at every level. And support, mutuality, caring shown here. Just being heard, and hearing your own thoughts echoed. Thank you, all! (And me, lucky with a supportive instant-GI wife, sorry if you're having to fight that battle domestically.)
Cory is one of my heroes. I know I will try to remain anonymous until I'm sure of the people around me. Because you can't "un-tell" someone your y2k concerns and preparations. But Cory, Paul, Gary, Rick, Ed & Ed, Jim Lord, Scott, Roleigh, zog, wildweasel, Infomagic, and maybe a dozen others you or I know are the publicly-visible Legion of Superheroes who are helping us write this comic book reality we're living in. Taking risks beyond just preparing privately. Thank you for, in large part, bringing this community together. Unselfishly. I acknowledge your thousands of hours of work -- for free -- which thereby increases your credibility in convincing others to prepare when they don't see your price tag on the information you contribute. (And if the big-shots pull off a remediation cliffhanger in '99, who helped light the fire under them more than Gary, Paul & Co.?) (Will 7-11 try to hire Paul as celebrity on commercials?)
Since the government and corporate world cannot and will not come out front on it -- they don't know what the computers will do and will always err on the side of calming the public anyway -- the function of informing ourselves has fallen to a handful of out-front communicators and thousands of concerned preparers/lurkers/fascinated studiers of a possible "civilization" breakdown. Even if it doesn't go that way, we know we are living a great final story to the century and don't want to miss a bit of it. It's exciting, gripping, addictive. Now to cut back my 3 hour a day obsession to one hour max!?! So I can do my preparation job. Denial/fear lurking at many levels in me. Never imagined I'd end up with someone as philosophically-opposite as Gary North being my daily reality coach/denial therapist going on 1.5 years now.
If we really want to probe y2k, we have to study our social, economic, and technical systems like we never had to before -- embedded systems, railroad switching and scheduling, oil refining, agriculture -- and make a judgment on their survival chances. A final exam on the 20th Century. Yet modest preparation, at least, is so cheap it is foolish to dwell obsessively on trying to nail down The Answer before taking the simpler actions.
We'll know more about the social environment (panic level) soon enough, if not significantly more about the computer systems. I find myself digging too long and late into the night in these forums for the tidbits that may move my education along. CAN SOMEONE PLEASE SET UP AN INTELLIGENTLY EDITED SITE OF THE MAJOR Y2K FORUMS and classify the good postings under the categories we really want to know about, minus the spam and personal duels. I won't have time much longer to keep up with it without that digest.
Cory, you just write so clearly. And Gary the Hammer of Logic. Am I just easily swayed when someone presents ideas clearly after years of reading bureaucratic bafflegab? Hmmm. Y2k is real, unknown in extent, capable of many outcomes foreseen. Read both sides, and hold them in your mind simultaneously? Feel crazy enough now? Time is passing -> events will arrive soon enough -> my 2-year old wakes me up at 7 a.m. -> off to bed. All I can and need to know right now.
I hope we all survive -- whatever outcome -- and there is a great Reunion somewhere so we can meet all of our Comic Book Heroes.
-- (Joremail@example.com), January 21, 1999.
Great post Jorel - lotsa visionary folks out there!
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 21, 1999.
Cory Hamasaki writes clearly!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That is the most incredible statement I have ever heard in my life! His style is worse that Joyce when he got into that crazy 'stream of conciousness' writing. Even worse is the fact that he talks down to his readers - I would cold cock any SOB that talked to me like that face to face. How on earth anyone can listen to such a nitwit is beyond me - in his last little exercise in demagogery he admitted he keeps 120 rounds of ammo for 'self protection' in his --- coat pocket? NO - his desk? NO - his bedside night stand? NO - in his office safe!!! What good can it do him there???? That alone is proof he is a complete twit! And just why, pray tell, does he keep his gun in the ceiling? I have had guns forever - I never even thought of putting one in the ceiling!! Why! for God's sake? He is so ignorant of any matter regarding common sense that I almost feel sorry for the idiot.
-- Paul Davis (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 21, 1999.
ahh..the voice of reason farts again...
-- a (email@example.com), January 21, 1999.
Paul Davis, I think you must be The Last Pollyanna. The last real one anyway, the rest seem to be trolls. (Except for Flint, I can't figure out what he is saying most of the time.) I know that I can count on your incredible posts. Like
Y2K is no big deal, we can get through it just fine; but relocate from the city to the country, why don't even try it, its impossible, you will starve or be victimized by your rural neighborhood ganglords! Progress on Y2K is going great, our electric utilities are only days away from being Y2K compliant; problems with PLCs are imaginary, since no one can supply me with the serial # of one that fails due to Y2K. Famine due to transportation problems -- nonsense, if anything there will be overabundant food supply. Just a matter of getting together some points on a circle, here. Oh, and I can assure you that Y2K will be ok, because of all my personal experience plus computer knowledge on everything, even though Y2K has never happened before.
I salute you for taking up "The Pollyannas Burden", and battling with Paul Milne et al, never yielding. Its sad to think of maybe how many people who otherwise would have prepared and taken steps are not because of your fluff, but hey thats life, and who knows, maybe you are right. Time will tell all of us I guess.
There have been many pollyannas, but there is only one "Paul-yanna". See you on the other side.
-- King of Spain (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 21, 1999.
I think the average 7+ y2k'er is living in a science fiction movie, Night of the Living Dead (starring DGI's as the 'Dead') seems to fit the images I sense in most 7+'ers' minds...
-- Blue Himalayan (email@example.com), January 21, 1999.
"Cory Hamasaki writes clearly!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That is the most incredible statement I have ever heard in my life! "
Well ofcourse. Anything I don't understand is garbledigook to me too.
-- Chris (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 21, 1999.
Hey -a... Paul is entitled to his opinion : )
Actually, the response Paul offers regarding CH is very telling and allows insight into his own thought process.
Paul, "creative" writing style is not bound by traditional laws thus the phrase "poetic license". Cory writes it like he thinks it. In essence, he offers a view of his world through his words. Sometimes it's tough to follow him however Cory puts his perspective into terms which are easier for the non-geek to understand. Perhaps that is the reason you have difficulty with him.
So, Paul, take a moment and relax and think a bit. Why would someone put an assault rifle in the ceiling? Why would someone take such drastic action to hide an assault weapon? Why doesn't he just display his weapon, locked and loaded, by placing it in a gun cabinet in full view of his neighbors and everyone who comes to his door? Gee... I wonder why? After all, there is such good hunting there in DeeCee.
Regarding keeping ammo for 'self-protection' in a safe and even an office safe. Where would you keep your ammo Paul? On the coffee table? If I had ammo, and I'm not saying I do, I would keep it locked and hidden away from the weapon. That way, if someone who just happened to come to my door and see my weapon on display in my gun cabinet decided to brake into my home and steal my assault weapon they would not walk away with a 120 rounds of ammo too. Or, if they brake into my home while I'm asleep they wont have 120 rounds of ammo to shoot up me or my neighbors. Hey, maybe that idiot who broke into my home will just leave with the weapon. Yeah, that 13 year old kid with mental problems will just take the weapon to school and kill his teacher and principal and his classmates. Nah, that never happens! Right Paul?
If you own a weapon the please don't display it in the open and don't keep your ammo in a desk or a night stand. Never point the weapon at anyone or any thing, loaded or unloaded, unless you plan on killing it. Get training and practice often. If you want to keep everything together then buy a gun safe. If you're worried about confiscation or theft and you want to keep everything out of sight, then try the attic. You know... up there... in the ceiling.
I really wonder why it is that Cory pushes your buttons Paul but it's obvious that he does.
-- Michael Taylor (email@example.com), January 21, 1999.
My first post to a NG! Ever! A certain synchrony emerges: I commented to a co-helot last month that considering Y2 is like living in a science fiction novel. Never cared much for the genre; 'Alas Babylon' is more like it: Or, more bleakly, 'On the Beach.' I have noticed how any mention of 'storing food' to my fellow propagandees hits a nerve: a nerve they probably didn't know they had. It is nothing less than the 'mortality' nerve: the one our entire century has worked feverishly to mask. The nerve that tells us, unarguably, that 'no one leaves here alive.' Americans, at least my generation (b. 59) have been sleepwalking through life trying to avoid that central fact of existence. A few woke up several decades ago (Edward Abbey and Wendell Berry and Gerry Mander come to mind). We have arrived at the End of History, but not the way Francis Fukuyama envisioned it: we in our arrogant pride will be humbled by two zeroes. Perfectly apt. As for the psychological difference between those who 'get it,' and those who don't, it seems obvious. We project our desires on our approach to the situation--if you are a Monkey Wrencher, a Luddite, an Arcadian, if you're fed up with our world with its 'dark satanic mills,' then you understand immediately that this is, in all likelihood, the perfect (and perfectly ironic) ending to an evil century. I will return to the other side of the mirror, but will watch with interest the last pages of our real-time 'Apocalypse Now.' It is fascinating simply as sociological phenomenon.
-- who doesn't (who firstname.lastname@example.org), January 21, 1999.
I agree with Paul Davis. Cory's writing is cynical at best. It sounds like he's sitting in a dark basement somewhere and battling with depression. And you people gobble it up without giving it much thought.
-- troll pollyanna (email@example.com), January 21, 1999.
Nice character assassination of Cory. Once again you prove Paul Milne correct in his assertion that pollyanna's always attack the messenger when they can't 'deal' with the information. You must like pulling down your pants in public and embarrassing yourself.
Since ignorance can be cured and stupidity can't, you had just as well give up.
-- c (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 21, 1999.
Paul, you seem to have lost a little patience today. I have watched from bleachers as you valiantly attempt to inject a little reason into the discussions on this forum. I hope you keep up the good work but be careful about attacking the high priests of the god TEOTWAWKI. At the rate your going the next thing you know you'll be dragging the "facts" out on all of the high priests' failed predictions to date. For example the Cory H. stockmarket crash of 1998 and the Cory H. predictions about mass shortages of COBOL programmers - I actually wasted the time on this forum many months ago explaining why extreme programmer shortages and extremely high salaries were not materializing and would not be materializing. If the so-called GI's are so well informed then perhaps they will review news archives from the first half of 1998 and tell us DGI's how their high priests could have been so wrong a year ago but should be believed today. Have a pleasant day.
-- Oscar Swischne (email@example.com), January 21, 1999.
The problem, Mr. firstname.lastname@example.org, is that Cory is putting out any information any longer. The WRPs have turned into total speculation.
-- have a nice day (email@example.com), January 21, 1999.
To be fair, you have to remember that both sides of the Y2K issue have been wrong. There's the "believers" who thought Y2K would have already crashed the stock market, and then there are those who asssured us that just about every business and government agency would have remediation completed by 31 December 1998.
Nothing can change the fact that many (including utilities) waited until 1998 to start Y2K repairs. They won't be finished in time.
BTW, if you've been disillusioned by Y2K predictions that didn't pan out, then why are you still calling these newsgroups?
-- Kevin (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 21, 1999.
We ARE living in a science fiction novel. In fact, we're in book four of that famous five part trilogy: The Hitchhiker's Guide To The Universe.
Perversely, Stine's Hyperdrive turns out to be the Interplanetary Improbability Drive. And somebody's dialed it up to Ludicrous Speed.
Pretty soon we'll be in part five, where the dolphins will say "So Long And Thanks For All The Fish!". Probably to occur somewhere on or about 01/01/2000.
And don't forget those most prophetic words that we'll be sure to hear as things gurgle 'round the bowl for the last time: "Sorry For The Inconvenience."
-- Wildweasel (email@example.com), January 21, 1999.
that's Guide to the Galaxy.
-- a (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 21, 1999.
"Computer...freeze program. Execute complete shutdown of the holodeck."
-- Kevin (email@example.com), January 22, 1999.
Comparison of Cory H. and Paul Milne makes Milne look real good.
Keep my ammo in my safe. "Cory - someone is coming through the window! Quick - get the safe combination". There are a hundred ways to store guns and ammo safely without keeping you from using them in an emergency. If you can't use it - why buy it?
I find his writing turgid, his 'facts' to be opinions, his attitude to be very bad, his constant references to the 'BARON' to be absolute fiction - if you like it then more power to you but I just can't stand it.
-- Paul Davis (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 22, 1999.
Paul, you're going to reach for a rifle and shoot someone coming through your window? Good luck... I wish you well... now, will you just spray the window or that general area when you fire or will you aim? Remember, this is an assault weapon. Take your time...
There are better arms to keep with you than sleeping with an assault rifle in your bed. Smaller, easier to point and shot and less likely to misfire. Also, the spent round is less likely to miss it's target and go through the car out by the curb, across the street, through your neighbors wall and right into their sleeping child.
There are better weapons to choose as sleeping partners.
Paul, I find your turn in attitude interesting. No longer are you speaking about specific facts and you've moved on to making attacks on the personal choices of others.
Are you getting to be a little nervous?
-- Michael Taylor (email@example.com), January 22, 1999.
No Mike, I just can't stand CH. I guess its like cats and dogs - we would never get along. I have read his stuff - but my jaws actually hurt from grinding my teeth every time - no fooling. BTW - I never said I would use a rifle for self defense - CH said that - I was mocking him.
Give me a short barrel shotgun every time - missing is hard if you have to use it - and that big old barrel pointing at someone is a potent arguement for them to move on and not have to use it - thereby saving you both ammo and trouble.
Now if I was expecting REAL trouble - I have this friend who has a Federal Automatic Weapons permit - BAR's, Thompson's, the original MG's off a Messerschmidt, (a collection to die for and a ton of ammo) - now he is loaded for bear and can't use them all at the same time if he needed to - so I might just offer a little help. ;)
-- Paul Davis (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 22, 1999.
Paulyanna. Well you certainly earned it. It's because you can't make a clear distinction between fact, fiction, and opinion. What we make of CH's references to The Baron don't mean jack. My guess(take it easy, this is only a guess) is it's supposed to be B.S. Hint: We're not suppose to care about his prep. anyway. His prediction about the stockmarket was his Opinion. Hint: It was his best assessment of the trend he was seeing.-------------------------I just went back over and looked at the thread "Did Janet Reno really say that?" to recall why I thought you were a Paulyanna back then, and it's because you are some one who doesn't know and doesn't want to know. You have a very biased way of thinking. Several people suggested that others see Waco; The Rules of Engagement, but you got all worked up and stated (facts? that had little to do with the incident. I really don't expect to change your mind, mostly because it's already made up; I just think you're arguments are junk.
-- Type r (Sortapreparin@polly.anna), January 23, 1999.
Sorry Paul, I was just jabbing at cha... I understand your frustration with CH. Oh, by the way... a Thompson? Wow! Now, that's fun stuff.
I second your "slightly shortened" shot-gun usage too. Take care.
-- Michael Taylor (email@example.com), January 25, 1999.
Didn't Cory say he keeps it "in the joists"? Aren't they in the floor?
How can anyone be wrong about something that hasn't happened yet?
-- Lewis (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 25, 1999.