Why no insider stock selling frenzy; why no skyrocketing gold prices?

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Not everyone is clueless or in denial!

Make me feel more certain as to what's going on. Tell me why?

-- fly . (.@...), January 20, 1999


personal opinion: greed, stupidity, manipulation by the Powers that Be. In other words, the same things that have allowed complacency in the midst of almost every other monetary collapse.

-- a (a@a.a), January 20, 1999.


A stock selling frenzy would be more likely in July when a company such as GM or Sears & Roebuck start shifting their business from non- compliant vendors to compliant vendors. Also it is said that the stock market only factors in events that will happen as far ahead as six months.

Junk silver prices have taken a sharp jump in the past month or so due to Y2K. Sales of gold coins are way up--coins that could be negotiated without too much trouble.

The price of gold overall is staying low--partly because the price is heavily determined by people whose investment in it doesn't extend to actually taking physical possession of it--and partly because gold doesn't typically doesn't appreciate in dollar value in deflationary times such as we're having right now.

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), January 20, 1999.

Fly, the gold market is subject to the whims of central banks all over the world and the 5+ billion subjects of those banks. So there are a few thousand or a maybe even a few hundred thousand people in the United States who are truly concerned about y2k; they're irrelevant in the gold market. But the answer to your question about gold is that it's demand is largely central banks and they've been unloading for a few years now. Ex. Russia to buy wheat.

As for stock sales. We are not to worry our little heads about that. As you well know, you can lock in a profit without selling stock just by taking a hedge position in the options market. Also, many insider shares, especially in new "internet" companies are still in a "lock-up" during which time it is illegal to sell shares until they've been publicly traded for a prescribed period of time. This is sort of an anti-dumping rule. Finally, the most valuable asset in any modern economy is confidence. As Milne or someone else posted below, one run on a bank in East Egypt,Missouri, and the whole game is over, kaput, done. Similarly, if insiders dumped all of their shares tomorrow, they'd only have about 12 hours to enjoy their gains because the confidence would be destroyed.

-- Puddintame (dit@dot.com), January 20, 1999.

"Don't look (at Y2K). Don't tell (anyone that things might get bad)."

Never overestimate intelligence. Brokers and buyers are minting money in a bull market just because .... it's going up. I did an early Internet project working on Morgan Stanley's trading floor. Fascinating. The traders are nearly totally technology-illiterate. So are the analysts, even some of the so-called technology analysts, in the sense that what the "Hamasaki's" know never escapes the vapor barrier of management to reach analysts anyway.

This is as true for Y2K as for everything else. You know tons more about Y2K than they do. Fact.

Also, the evidence so far is that the Fed is going to establish a credit floor under the world economy no matter what. Of course, this won't work after 'x' date (October 99? I think the market will test the Fed and then shrug all Y2K anxieties off as the Fed falls on its sword to protect Santa Claus), but people smarter than you/me (though far less intelligent) are betting on Y2K as a controllable bump.

You see, if they don't, there is no other game in town. Here's a secret, don't tell anyone: THEY'RE IN DENIAL TOO.

The market (heck, your DGI neighbors) have already priced in (they imagine) everything short of what they believe TEOTWAWKI is (SECOND NEWS FLASH: WE ARE NOT THE ONLY ONES FANTASIZING ABOUT Y2K EFFECTS). "Oh, the world didn't end: buy more Internet stocks, Mabel."

OF COURSE, their world WILL end when Y2K smacks us. I just think there is way-more to be swept under the rug throughout 99, including JAE and even FY2000 stuff before the bell curve breaks through Wall Street's what-a-day-for-a-daydream.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), January 20, 1999.


Also take a look at this article from The Denver Business Journal:


"Mint Cashes in on Millennium"

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), January 20, 1999.

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