Russia: Face the FACTSgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Russian integrator inks pact to use U.S. Y2K software
Most remediation now done manually
By Thomas Hoffman 01/18/99 Relativity Technologies Inc., a Cary, N.C.-based software developer, last week announced a multimillion-dollar contract with a Russian systems integrator to provide year 2000 fixes to Russian agencies and businesses, such as Aeroflot.
The contract is believed to be the first between a U.S. vendor and Russia for year 2000 work, said William McHenry, an expert on Russian computing at Georgetown University in Washington. McHenry, who was in St. Petersburg, Russia, during the holidays, said most year 2000 remediation there is being done manually.
Lanit Holding, a Moscow-based integrator that last month was certified as the first year 2000 competency center by the Russian government, plans to use Relativity's RescueWare software to fix and modernize date-sensitive systems in Russia.
The systems integrator has preliminary deals to perform year 2000 inventory assessments at Aeroflot, Russia's largest air-transport firm, and Gazprom, which produces 95% of Russia's natural gas.
Assess Aeroflot. Assess. 11 months to go, and they 'plan to assess' Aeroflot. How many time s did we hear in september of 1999 that if you had not begun you had no chance of making it. Same in October, November and December of 1997. Then ALL of 1998 passed by. Now there are 11 months left and Aeroflot is going to do an assessment.
So, how does one accurately assess Aeroflot's chances of success. Well, you can say that they still have time and they might muddle through. Is that reasonable? I do not believe so. It is manifestly unreasonable by any understanding of Y2K remediation.
And Gazprom? They will muddle through too?
Any 'optimistic' sentiment ought to be based upon the facts. Like they started on time, had an appropriate budget, had the programmers are WELL into it by this stage of the game. If those things were the case, then one 'might' have caused to form an optimistic opinion. It would be based upon facts.
The FACTS here are that both off these entities have not yet performed an assessment. 11 months to go. Think about this. if it 'could' be done in 11 months, then we would have already seen companies of that size who HAVE spent 11 months on it done. Done coding and done testing.
How long will an assessment take? Let's be absolutely ridiculous and say that it takes ONE DAY. That leaves them 11 months for coding and testing. testing is at LEAST half the job. So they would have 5 1/2 months for coding. Have we seen any company of comparable size finish coding in five and a half months? The answer is no.
It is not doomsaying to say that they can not finish. It is reality. It is not black hearted pessimism bent on a pernicious agenda to say that they can not finish in time. It is reality.
When any Pollya.... optimistic fellow can show us evidence of a comparable sized firm that has finished coding in 11 months , yet alone 5 and a half months that they actually have if they are going to test properly, then you might have something.
Of course, I am just an idiot who can not see how highly motivated and well trained people who are serious and committed can fix this in time. I just have a pernicious agenda of doom and gloom to set forth.
Oh, and let's not forget Italy who only this week publically woke up to the situation. But, they, too, will be OK because they announced that they were serious and going to make up for lost time.
If you look at the facts, the evidence, it is clear that Russia is not going to make it. No agenda, no preconceived notions. Just the facts.
-- Paul Milne (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 20, 1999
Paul, the point is the Planet is not going to make. There is no way the US will not be devestated, and that's just from the global failures in SA, Eur, Asia, Japan, let alone Russia. We don't even need to factor in our own y2k disasters. When I start thinking of contries, other than the old USA, I shudder. Hell, even here in Alabama, I scared. I am starting to feel sorry for all the people out there that don't understand. I've been a GI for close to 2 years, gotten it all along, but never thought it would go Infomagic...Just recently changed my mind. Thanks,
Rusty2k in Birmingham, anyone else from around here?
-- Rusty2k Ford (email@example.com), January 20, 1999.
Actually, Paul, For me it's kind of funny that you mention Russia today. (BTW - it's pretty clear Russia will be toast 'cause they already ARE toast)
I say this because somebody I work with today asked me if I saw the SotU... bla,bla,bla ..."Clinton mentioned your favorite subject " ...bla,bla,bla...yea, let's have a laugh at my expense... bla, bla,bla... "So, what do you think this country is gonna look like in a couple of years?"
Russia on bad day.
That's what I said. They didn't particularly like that one. Think about it though. I don't really have time to go into it right now. But I think that in the MIDDLE OF THE ROAD scenario, this country will look like Russia does today. Of course Russia will probably look like ... god, I hate to even imagine it...
-- pshannon (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 20, 1999.
I'm under the impression that many of the computers used in countries behind the old Iron Curtain, are computers that have been "ripped off" from American companies and it is impossible for them to go to these companies and ask them to help them with the Y2K problems these computers have.
-- thinkIcan (thinkIcan@make.it), January 20, 1999.
Now there have been about five response to my post.
Notice. Did even so much as ONE pollya... optimistic fellow come out of the woodwork and REFUTE the facts? NOT ONE. Where is Paul Davis the big mouth asshole? Where is the equally big mouthed asshole flint?
Nowhere to be found. Will they pop up now? They might. But this is standard for them. They can not refute the evidence. They only attack motives or the person. Flint is the fallacy king.
If you watch this thread you will find NO ONE who can refute the evidence. But, watch for the Pollya... optimistist who DO answer. They will not be able to address the facts. But, if they do respond, watch the attacks.
And I will be willing ready and able to respond back. But again, I seriously doubt that they will respond if they stick to the FACTS and the EVIDENCE. Watch.
-- Paul Milne (email@example.com), January 20, 1999.
Paul, what you post here is the best information I have, and the only bright light I see is itself negative -- Russia can hardly be in worse shape, but they'll find a way.
The quotes from that Italian minister were enough to make you cry: We'll get started real soon, I admit we got started late, we were busy, see? We'll roll up our sleeves and work really really hard as soon as we get started. We sure are starting late. We'll make it, don't worry...
At best, this may reduce the corruption in Italian government, since the corruption is probably pretty automated by now. Italy is hosed. When there's no hope, there's no hope. We can debate the impact of remediation efforts; we can't debate the impact of no effort at all.
-- Flint (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 20, 1999.
You know I've been a fan of yours ever since I got into this Y2K discussion. I've praised your contributions and, beause I identify with your motivation, have even defended your attitude and your invective.
Excuse me, sir, but this is the forum I let my kids read, the one I recommend to my friends who are new to this issue and/or to usenet. I've noticed that you generally tone down your language and flames when posting here as opposed to "anything goes" csy2k. I thank you for that and, knowing you'll understand what I'm implying, encourage to continue posting with that in mind.
"Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so." --- Douglas Adams
-- Hallyx (Hallyx@aol.com), January 20, 1999.
How long will assessment take? about this long:
"electricity is out, aircraft can't fly anyway, and all that kerosene based jet fuel will burn just fine in our kerosene stoves."
"ever since that pumping station blew up the pipeline has been empty and, you know, I bet a hunk of that would go a long way toward making our improvised irrigation system reach the garden."
"those old trucks never were worth much anyway, but the professor sure was able to turn those leaf springs into some nice arbalasts."
-- Arlin H. Adams (email@example.com), January 20, 1999.
Paul, Have you actually *FLOWN* on Aeroflot ?
My sister did when she toured with Dance Theatre of Harlem just before the wall came down.
There was times when the passengers were loading the cargo bays. No computers at many terminals.
I'll e-mail her to verify some things, but I think that here's one case where "going to manual" won't really be noticed, at least for most of the internal traffic.
I also think you missed the scaryist part of the story: >>RescueWare is a tool for converting Cobol, Fortran and other legacy applications into modern languages such as Java, C++ and Visual Basic.
cool! they can convert the Y2K bugs into VB bugs, Java Date bugs, and subtle C++ memory bugs! will the software run on all those surplus pentium 90's that Intel had to recall?
(btw, if I cover my head with butter, will I allways land on my feet after Jan 1st?)
-- Jay Kusnetz (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 21, 1999.
Mr. Milne, you siad:
"If you look at the facts, the evidence, it is clear that Russia is not going to make it. No agenda, no preconceived notions. Just the facts." There was more about Italy.
1. Gee, you base this on one entire data point, Aeroflot, an airline that barely stayed in the air under the best of circumstances? (C'mon, the damn things is often referred to as "Aeroflop.") Hardly rigorous research.
2. Have you been paying attention lately, say for the last three years? Russia is toast NOW, and it hasn't the least little thing to do with Y2K. Their entire infrastucture only works sporadically and their government almost not at all. It presents an absolutely lousy argument about how things are going to hell next year as things may go to hell there anyway, and before January.
3. The Italian government just started making noise about Y2K. Don't confuse the government with the businesses and populace of a country. I doubt if every single Italian citizen was waiting for the government to tell them what to do and what to worry about. Remeber, Italy has "Government du Jour." Also, you will note that this forum, cs.y2k, DeJager's forum and many companies were all actively discussing and working on Y2K long before the governments of the U.S. and Canada started talking publicly about Y2K. Heck, there was a lot of Y2K work being carried on inside the government before Clinton ever even seems to have heard of the problem, much less appointed his figurehead "Y2K" czar. Writing off all of italy based on one comment by some government mouthpiece is simplistic to say the least.
4. You later post something along the lines of "Gee, nobody has responded. Wimps. See I was right. Nyaa, nyaa." As I said on another thread, some of us have real lives outside this forum and other Y2K areas. Also, some of us believe in examining more than a single data point beofre leaping to conclusions, and that takes time. Careful study isn't for the impatient.
5. You again repeat an assertion that "people are going to begin dying soon." I ask you an eighth time: "Where's your proof of that?" Hey, you brought up the proof issue this time, not me!
-- Paul Neuhardt (email@example.com), January 21, 1999.
Just saw a report on CNN about Novogrod in Russia - abolutely heartbraking.
The whole place is starving. There was only one factory, which shut down 5 years ago. No jobs at all. Only food is potatoes, bread, water - and the first two are hard to get.
One young single (unemployed) mum gave 2 infant daughters to the orphanage after they got sick living on bread and water only.
A single father (not worked for 3 years - driver) - gave his 5 kids to the same orphanage.
They interviewed a woman, whose job was in the orphanage (yee ha!) earning a measly $20 a month. The kids live on potatoes and canned jam. As do her own kids at home.
Jesus H. Christ - it sickens me what is going on over there.
And people say that Russian Nukes are not a threat? I for one see past that one - it's only a matter of time before something gives - Civil War, who knows???
Two digits. One mechanism. The smallest mistake.
"The conveniences and comforts of humanity in general will be linked up by one mechanism, which will produce comforts and conveniences beyond human imagination. But the smallest mistake will bring the whole mechanism to a certain collapse. In this way the end of the world will be brought about."
Pir-o-Murshid Inayat Khan, 1922 (Sufi Prophet)
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 21, 1999.
Gee, it's nice to know, that Russia and Italy are waking up to Y2K. But what about the other 160 countries?
-- Obin (Obin@fla.net), January 21, 1999.
Excellent answer, Paul Neuhardt! Not to mention the precarious position of Chernobyl!! If that doesn't make you throw more dirt over the root cellar I don't know what would.Let's say everything goes well for the Y2K fix in Russia (ha ha heehee). The country is toast anyhow . At this point, 90% of the teenagers are mentally handicapped due to malnourishment. This won't change or go away. How very sad! Remember the Russia many of us feared as young children? How far away from this current scenario could the United States be if we aren't very careful? Store more non-hybrid seed, learn how to save it. Most of all, continue to store up on knowledge, knowledge, knowledge. Best regards, Abigayle
-- Abigayle Greenleaf (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 21, 1999.
"How far away from this current scenario could the United States be if we aren't very careful?"
Slicks in charge - no problem...
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 21, 1999.
If Russia's nukes cross the date barrier in operational form and
If US can still project sufficient power overseas
I look for US and allies to bring Russia into a post-Y2K alliance to buy off nuke threat (never forget: it's Russia's only int'l asset) and allow us to assume visible policeman status across entire Middle East. It's still about oil, boys and girls.
Apart from nukes issue, IMHO, Russia not hurt too badly by Y2K because is already TEOTWAWKI. If we don't think the generals are war-planning their post Y2K leverage, we're worse than pollyannas. And don't think they're as stupid as they look, they're as smart as our own military. Hmmmm. Okay, stupid.
-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), January 21, 1999.
way off subject, sorry, but I've got to correct my 2:30am mistake: (btw, if I cover my head with butter, will I allways land on my feet after Jan 1st?) should have been toes, not head, referring to the cliche that toast always falls butter side down. (tho I get the feeling Paul will think I was right the first time ;-)
-- Jay Kusnetz (email@example.com), January 21, 1999.