Question re Paul Milne scenario : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

I would really appreciate it if someone could point me to a link describing Paul Milne's take on the situation. I see references to it all the time, but don't know where to search! Thank you!

-- sww (, January 18, 1999


You could do a net search on "Paul Milne"...or check the end of Mr. Milne's posts for the URL....

-- Donna Barthuley (, January 18, 1999.

Or you could just try this mental execise one day at the mall.

"He's dead, he's dead, he's dead, he's dead, he's dead, he might make it, she's a goner, he's toast, he's dead, she's dead, she may make it, she's dead, she might be okay, he's dead, etc. etc. etc...

That sums up his take nicely, I think. (Paul will correct me if I'm wrong, of course) ;)

-- Uncle Deedah (, January 18, 1999.

ROFLMAO,....Uncle!!!!!! You are the best!

-- Donna Barthuley (, January 18, 1999.

Ack...I forgot, and you did too, Uncle, forgot,...he's dead, BUTTHEAD! Can't leave out the "butthead". ROFL

-- Donna Barthuley (, January 18, 1999.

Pauls position in a nutshell:

The failures that will be caused by y2k in this country have been underestimated. They will be substantial, spread across all industries, and will result in almost total collapse of society in 2000. They will be exacerbated by

- government intervention
- a global economic disaster that has been brewing for at least 5 years
- catastrophic failures of our trading partners, such as Japan, Russia, South America, etc.
- and, most of all, millions of UNPREPARED PEOPLE.

This last concern is why the gist of his message is GET OUT OF THE CITIES. His views are similar to Gary North.

Paul visits here occasionally but his home is c.s.y2k:

Paul Milne posts on c.s.y2k

And BTW, he's only predicting a 7.5.

-- a (a@a.a), January 18, 1999.

Thank you Donna, so nice to see you back among the Y2Kooks. Don't be a stranger.

-- Uncle Deedah (, January 18, 1999.

From that description, you may as well put your head between your knees and kiss your @## goodbye. Life is so weird. In my family, I am currently being considered a "doom & gloomer". Here, I find myself appearing as an optimist.

-- Sue (, January 18, 1999.

That's the nice thing about Mr. Milne,...those of us with prozac-necessary Y2K depression appear optimistic....Thank you Paul.

-- Donna Barthuley (, January 18, 1999.

yada yada yada

Paul Milne

If you live within five miles of a 7-11, you're toast.

-- Brooks (, January 18, 1999.

But, say what you will about Mr. Milne's attitude, politics or religion--or his invective--he still posts more articles in support of his veiwpoint than anyone but Dianne Squire. In this he is doing the Y2K community a great service.


"The truth would become more popular if it were not always stating ugly facts." (Henry S. Haskins)

-- Hallyx (, January 18, 1999.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong...I think Paul Milne has been described as a Gary North's Gary North.

Paul's other famous quote is, describing his Y2K scenario: "I could be wrong. It could be worse."

-- Kevin (, January 18, 1999.

No, "I could be wrong. It could be worse" is Infomagic (a 10'er)

-- a (a@a.a), January 18, 1999.


Agreed. I always enjoy Paul's posts, if not always his invective.

And here's one just for you...

"Dad, dad, we're dead meat. We're dead meat!"

- The feral child, Mad Max II The Road Warrior

-- Uncle Deedah (, January 18, 1999.

It could be worse is an infomagic remark..I think

-- Ivan (, January 18, 1999.

Unfortunately or not..I CAN shoot the messenger. Abrasiveness and obnoxiousness and the telling of the "I'm gonna live, you're gonna die" epic gets old after about 24 hours. When did Milne receive his divine annointing? Those who claim to know it all need to prove it, and do it without calling everyone else in the world a butthead. period. Oh...I'm voting for a 7.5 minimum just like the god Milne...

-- Donna Barthuley (, January 18, 1999.

I've seen Road Warrior several times & Feral Kid doesn't talk at all, except for the adult narration. Maybe he does in Thunderdome, which I don't remember because it sucked.

-- whirley bird (, January 18, 1999.

Methinks you may be right, twas many moons and many beers ago, somewhat hazy now.

Thunderdome it is...Thanks

-- Uncle Deedah (, January 18, 1999.

First, Milne takes a story entitied like 'Bank says they're ready'

Then he says they're lying, because press releases are all lies.

Then he claims that no bank can possibly make it.

Then he claims that this is a fact.

Then he claims his position is supported by the FACTS!

Then he cites this story as one of those FACTS. Amazing.

I don't know how accurate his vision of the future may be, but I do know that his method of predicting it is fundamentally dishonest, and discredits those of us who are seriously trying to figure out what's happening.

-- Flint (, January 18, 1999.

Kevin, It was Gary Noth Himself who said that I was 'Gary north's gary North'.

Donna, It is not an annoiting. It is called study and research far far beyond what the average person has done. And probably a THOUSAND times beyond what you have done.

99.9% of the crapola that gets posted about me is third hand mischaracterization and straw men.


What Paul Milne says: I think that many many people will be killed as a direct result of the consequences of Y2K. There will be people who die from lack of food. The very largest part of these will be in third world countries where they are utterly dependent on outside shipments of food. But do not discount place like England and Japan who are NET importers of food. Disease and lack of medical attention. Wars will break out in the likely places, North Korea, Middle East. The Balkans will get worse and so will Africa. The failures of most of the world to come to grips with their IT systems will cause MASSIVE economic dislocation. Enough to cause social mayhem, even in the USA.

What the Mischaracterizers say:

"The world is going to end."

It is that simple. No matter what you have to say on usenet, some nut case will pcompletely pervert it out of context and spread that crapola all over. One can not avoid such nonsense in usenet.

The world is not going to end. It will for a lot of individuals, but for the rest it will go on, but in no way like it did previously. Unless you live in a mountain gorge in Tibet.

In short, if you want to know what I think, ask me. My e-mail address is available to you. Don't listen to the crap spewed out by others. You can search dejanews, if you like. I have made over 5500 posts there in the last year.

-- Paul Milne (, January 18, 1999.

You see Donna, flint has executed the 'perfect example' of what I tried to explain to you. Let's look at his blather line by line.

First, Milne takes a story entitied like 'Bank says they're ready' Then he says they're lying, because press releases are all lies.

(To begin with, this is manifestly untrue. I examine the FACTS in the story. Most stories like this one never mentiona single bank that is ready at all. They mangae to take 'assurances' from banks and then say that the banks 'say that they are ready'. 'Saying' that you are ready and being ready are two different things. As to the 'lies' part, when I catch them in a lie, I call them liars. Like when a bank says that it is ready and their SEC report shows that they have spend less than fifty percent of their proposed budget.)

Then he claims that no bank can possibly make it.

(I If this were so, then Flint can very easily cite the post where I said it. Mischaracterizations abound. And Flint is one of the masters. There most certainly will be banks that make it. However, banking is global. The rest of the world is in dismal shape. The CSC recently made another very serious warning that if even ONE foreign exchange bank fails, it can completely bollux up the system cosying ten BILLION dollars the first week alone. Dozens and dozens of foreign exchange banks will fail. The compliance of one or two, or even a dozen large Us banks is moot. So I do not have to make ridiculous statements like 'none will make' it. On the other hand Flint is so incredibly ingratious as to play ridiculous semantic games. I can say 'none will make it' and still realize that some might. But that 'some' is so insignifigant that 'none will make it' is about the right sense of things)

Then he claims that this is a fact.

(Since I did not make that claim it is not a fact, yet one more of Flint's straw men. And what if ONE idi make it? Or Two? Or a dozen? Does that actually make a difference. Ids Flint vindicated as ONE banks survives and the banking system collapses. Yes, he is vindicated in his mind, but in reality, when the majority of banks around the world fail, the REALITY is that the system collapses.)

Then he claims his position is supported by the FACTS!

(Again, lol)

Then he cites this story as one of those FACTS. Amazing.

I don't know how accurate his vision of the future may be, but I do know that his method of predicting it is fundamentally dishonest, and discredits those of us who are seriously trying to figure out what's happening.

(This is the whole point. HE does not know. I imagine that if he did enough research, one day he might know. Flint is not serious in the least. His starting point is that no matter what you find out, YOU CAN NEVER KNOW. He starts there and ends there, Dazed and confused.

He says that he is 'honest'. Then I suggest that you e-mail him and ask him why he apologized publically for treating me in a manifestly 'DISHONEST' way. I answered one of his posts, line by line, and point by point. Then, he took part of one line out of my response and used it out of context. he was called on it and he apologized for his dishonesty.

This is the essence of Flint. He mischaracterizes what I say, uses it out of context and then calls another a liar. )

-- Flint (, January 18, 1999

((Flint has been a ceasless defender of all those who give 'assurance' never backed up by ANY facts whatsoever. As long as someone 'assures' you they are on track, that is good enough for Flint. It has to be. He lives in a highly populated area and refuses to move out. He has to PRAY that he will, be safe because his actions will not assure it.

I have posted MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAINS of FACTS. Flint: ZERO,ZIP,NADA. He would not draw a conclusion if it bit him in the ass.

-- Paul Milne (, January 18, 1999.

There is a story which might apply to us and Mr. Milne.

There was a troop about 15 soldiers under the command of the meanest sob sargent you could imagine. He retrained every troop personally reminding them how bad it would be and how ill prepared they were. The hated him. Mocked him behind his back. They feared him.

They met the enemy and were severly outnumbered. They lost 5 men. Killed over 25.

The story has it that several of the 10 survivors only wanted one thing upon their return to camp. They wanted to see the sargent. When they met with him each said the same four words. "We made it, Sarg".

His response to each was complete silence and a sincere embrace.

On their way home one the the troops asked the sargent what was the first thing he planned on return home. He replied that he was going to visit the parents the five men who did'nt make it.

-- Tomcat (, January 18, 1999.

Tomcat: I have heard that story before. I think the shoe fits.

I follow the Flint/Milne debates on c.s.y2k. Flint is a juvenile who can't accept being wrong. He lied about something Milne had said then had to publicly apologized online. It was pretty embarrassing to read. Other pollyanna posters there have been caught lying about the facts, but Paul has not to my knowledge. I don't agree with his entire world view, but on y2k and the economy he is like a crystal ball.

-- a (a@a.a), January 18, 1999.

'a', I think you're out of line here, just my opinion. Yes, I did misrepresent Paul, and I apologized. You will notice that Paul lied about me in the da Jager thread. He was challenged by three different people, and he vanished.

If you think it is adult to run away when you've lied, and juvenile to apologize, you have a very strange viewpoint indeed. If you think someone didn't lie simply because they refuse to admit it, your admonishions ring a bit hollow at best. From my own reading here, I seem to be at least as willing as anyone to admit when I've misunderstood and change my opinion. Can you point to *any* case where you've changed your mind in the light of *any* information?

Paul Milne's crystal ball is as anyone might expect who reads actually reads what he says, instead of swallowing their hero's bilge at face value. He ran away from a meltdown 6 years ago that never happened. He predicted the DOW for end of Ocober and was the least accurate prediction made. He was frothing at the mouth almost a year ago about how New York was going to go south when they hit FY 99, but nothing happened. He was rubbing his hands togeter in delight at the JAE breakdowns he expected to be at least as bad as rollover itself. Didn't happen. If you can identify a *single* prediction Milne has made that wasn't essentially the opposite of what actually happened, I'd like to see it. Nobody else has found one yet. Where is this crystal ball.

What I tried to do earlier in this thread was to condense (as an illustration) the thinking process that has led Milne to be so ludicrously wrong in *every* prediction he's made. In a nutshell, this is caused by Milne's efforts to force all the information he chooses to examine to fit his preconceptions, and ignore the rest.

But if you *agree* that FY99 has devastated New York, OK, please support this position. If you disagree, please admit that Paul was wrong (even if you don't try to explain why).

Or you can vanish like Paul does, having made an untrue statement in the true, doomist hit-and-run tradition, cowardly to the core.

-- Flint (, January 19, 1999.

I always believe Flint, although I think that he is usually wrong. His posts always seem to me to reflect complete honesty, and I have no doubt that if indeed he misunderstood something, it was just an oversight.

It is getting to be late January 1999, there really is so little time left. Can we all just get along?

-- Jack (, January 19, 1999.

Flint: Your bias against Milne is unfounded. Here is what you said earlier:

First, Milne takes a story entitied like 'Bank says they're ready'
Then he says they're lying, because press releases are all lies.
Then he claims that no bank can possibly make it.
Then he claims that this is a fact.
Then he claims his position is supported by the FACTS!
Then he cites this story as one of those FACTS. Amazing.

You're full of shit. He points out the banks

- that have missed deadlines
- that have not finished assessments
- whose SEC reports indicate they don't have high enough burn rates
- that will forego testing

Flint, you are in denial. Greenspan is on record as saying 99% remediation of the world financial system is not good enough and that it will take 100% to avoid a crisis. Flint, I ask you, just on this **ONE** issue of banks, what percentage does your "crystal ball" tell you will be done?

You have done NOTHING for the cause, other than to harass an honest man. If you would like to point to any postings that might help vindicate you, please do. Just be sure not to use anyone's words out of context.

-- a (a@a.a), January 19, 1999.

'a', I replied in detail in a new thread. But I'll make another attempt at clarification. I think I see the problem here, (at least I hope I do),

I have no real argument with Milne's *position*. I, like you, think he may be a bit on the pessimistic side. I've repeatedly said that I think his future is unlikely but cannot be ruled out at present.

To me, there's a clear difference between the message and the messenger. I think Milne is a raving lunatic. You may know that a straw vote is taken each Presidential election in our mental institutions (whose inhabitants aren't permitted to vote). And the patients match the public vote within about a percentage point every time. They are *still* mental patients, and for good reasons. It's possible to be nutso and right at the same time. Crazy is *not* the same as stupid.

The progression I wrote and you quoted was in no way intended to argue that banks are in good shape. I will be astounded if the banking system doesn't go through a period of really serious screwups, with a notable economic impact at minimum.

I was trying to show how Milne turns good news into bad news, not because any particular bit of news is really bad, but because Milne *wants* it to be bad, and finds some way to *make* it bad. I was criticizing the thought process, which has a bad track record. I won't deny that some people *do* pin the tail on the donkey.

-- Flint (, January 19, 1999.

sww, I just have to share with you a quote of Paul's that just breaks me up. I'm paraphrasing, but it was something about if you decide to stay in the cities, you'll end up drinking dog pee out of a hubcap, and that's "not my cup of tea." ROTFLMAO I still laugh when I think of that.

I have no idea where that quote is from, but I remember it as Paul's, and if you're out there, Paul, you can probably verify it as yours.

I'm still laughing about that. Guess I have a REALLY weird sense of humor.


-- jhollander (, January 19, 1999.

Flint: OK, we're getting closer. You said

"I will be astounded if the banking system doesn't go through a period of really serious screwups, with a notable economic impact at minimum."

Milne and I believe that it will be much worse than that. A 1930's style depression except with more bloodshed and chaos. Best case. Are we pessimistic? Well hell yes. Do we deserve to be? At this late date, HELL YES. That is where we disconnect. You don't want to see the writing on the wall; Milne has already read it and corrected grammatical errors.

Jeannie: That's a rusty hubcap...

-- a (a@a.a), January 19, 1999.


It's killing me; I can't take too much of Paul empassioned.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think he's too far off, but he sure is funny when he gets going.

I'm still laughing. A RUSTY hubcap! ROTFLMAO.


-- jhollander (, January 19, 1999.

I think it was more like "If you stay in a city you will be fighting off "woolite drinking wino's" with one hand while trying to get a sip of stale dog urine out of a rusty hub cap."

Stay in a city. No skin off my nose.

-- Paul Milne (, January 19, 1999.

Does anyone remember Infomagic's great summary of the Y2K situation?
"The good news is that the U.S. is ahead of everybody else. The bad news is that the U.S. is ahead of everybody else."

And we're all tied together like the two dogs my mother wouldn't let me watch.

-- Tom Carey (, January 21, 1999.

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