Here in the Dee Cee area, about 400K people had trouble with electricity for a few WHOLE DAYS! Actually, it was about 400K at first, now about 23K on the 4th day.

The folks who don't have power are getting *angry* because they see folks who do.

Interesting implications for Y2K...

-- Anonymous99 (Anonymous99@Anonymous.com), January 18, 1999

Answers

Good point Anonymous...

One more reason to cook your food indoors if you can during the expected power outages. Wouldn't want to draw the attention of some hungry mob to your humble little abode. If people get *angry* when they see the others with power, what do you call it when the starving masses see the prepared people just as happy as clams BECAUSE they prepared. Hmmm, so called civilized society huh?

One of my preparations is going to be to make my house impenatrable short of a bulldozer... or a really hungry Rush Limbaugh. Sounds kooky? Maybe, but I'm not taking the chances of having everything I worked for overrun. Call it Home/Life Insurance.

-- (Smoke@Fire.com), January 18, 1999.

Suppose I was a bad guy. Your house would be no problem at all. If I find that I can not get in, then I simply burn it down. That's how a bad guy wil behave. You can have ten years worth of food and a hundred guns, but if you are in a populated area, surrounded by thousands of unprepared people, your preparations are moot. The only real solution is to get out.

Now, I know that most will not be able to get out. But, staying is not an option that will prove to be anything other than lethal. And I understand what a dilemma it must be for a lot of folks. But that does NOT change the situation. Remaining in a poplated area, surrounded by thousands, if not tens or hundreds of thousands of unprepared people, no matter how well prepared you are, is virtually futile.

I am sorry if the conclusion is unpleasant. You preferred a lie, perhaps?

-- Paul Milne (fedinfo@halifax.com), January 18, 1999.

***"Suppose I was a bad guy. Your house would be no problem at all. If I find that I can not get in, then I simply burn it down. That's how a bad guy wil behave. You can have ten years worth of food and a hundred guns, but if you are in a populated area, surrounded by thousands of unprepared people, your preparations are moot. The only real solution is to get out. "*****

Does 'bad guy' equal 'hungry guy'? Explain why, short of many IQ points, bad/hungry guy would chose to burn down a source of food rather than attempt to get inside, immobilize resident, and get that food? Then, too, if said resident was in possession of shotgun capable of firing, would not said bad/hungry guy think more than once about getting close enough to light a fire which would burn up his/her potential dinner? And maybe there's something I'm overlooking....

-- Donna Barthuley (moment@pacbell.net), January 18, 1999.

Good point Donna,

Impenetrable doesn't mean inaccesible in or out for me. I'm not about to lock myself in a cage and hope the rest of the world passes me by. But as far as lighting fires to my house is concerned, you'd have to build a pretty hot inferno to melt the exterior brickwork. Either way you'd have to be pretty crazy to try when like you say, said resident has tactical advantage having had the time to "dig in".

-- (Smoke@Fire.com), January 18, 1999.

I like Paul Milne.

I like Infomagic.

But according to their scenarios, I'm dead. I can't afford to move. I can barely afford the rent. I am a small (2 people) business owner and I'm just beginning to show a profit.

My plan, if things get real bad, is to squirrel away, like in Tom's Take. I live in a town with too many people and not the nicest people either. I don't know hardly any of my neighbors and getting to know them is not an option. I don't want to know them and they don't want to know me. You get a dirty look around here for leaving your clothes in the dryer for too long...!

So, I just keep living. Day to day. Hoping and searching for news that tells me it won't be that bad. It won't be a 10. It *will* be a 1. A house of cards will fall, but the exact right cards will stay up.

Hrumph, what an optimist...huh?

Well, I have no choice.

-- Sub-Mitt (lurking@ofcourse.com), January 18, 1999.

O.K., so we have made the move to the boonies. The solar, fuel tanks etc. are all in place. If y2k happened today we would be preety well set (this job will never be finished, it's infinate.) Even with large dogs and larger guns, we may not be safe. There is a y2k meeting five miles down the road tonight. Do we go, and let others know we are preparing? What if they ask questions? Do we say non of your business buddy, back off? Will these well meaning folks come looking for what they don't have? We will have a large family of dis-believers to take care of. This jealously thing is pretty scarey. Try a propane stove indoors (get two five-hundred pound tanks, and yes. they are ugly, got prettier in the last icestorm) Put a nice old fashion wood stove in your kitchen. All they will see is smoke. They won't burn you out unless their parents met at a family reunion... Abigayle

dogs and larger guns, we may not be safe.

-- James Greenleaf (jgreenleaf@townsqr.com), January 18, 1999.

I think I'd appreciate Mr. Milne's approach better if he said something like: "You in the cities are dead, and heck, I'm probably dead too 'cos there are so many bad guys out there..." Instead he does the 'neener-neener' think, and in such fine fashion, as he has practiced it for a while...

My visions of any optimism include many people surviving, in many pockets of sanity. They also include definitions of human beings broad enough to go beyond the hungry guy = bad guy laborious rant. As many of us have said over and over...we are as safe as the preparations of our neighbors. Perhaps there are still some folks reading who appreciate the "you're all gonna die" song,...I am not among them. I could die in the next few moments from an aneurism blown in my brain. As long as I am breathing and moving and thinking, I think I'll continue to work on creative survival/thrival options.

-- Donna Barthuley (moment@pacbell.net), January 18, 1999.

Donna,

I was afraid maybe you'd given up on us. Good to know that you're still here!

"Smoke",

I'm afraid Mr. Milne is right. You've read the story of The Three Little Pigs once too many times. Unless your "brickwork" is structural brick (extremely rare in America) it won't even slow a serious rifle bullet down. Nor would it stop an automobile with the throttle wired open. Nor would it protect you from the thick, choking smoke from a pile of burning tires properly placed, or from what the attackers might be doing behind that smoke. The big, bad "Y2K Wolf" will have less trouble getting someone out of their hidey hole than that "someone" will have in "holding out", unless the "wolf" is a total moron. Hungry people tend to acquire craftiness, even if they didn't have much before they got hungry.

A cursory study of the techniques of siege will quickly convince you that you want to be on the outside rather than the inside. Just ask any military tank crewman. Why do you suppose tanks always have infantry to protect them?

As for the shotgun, you'd better make each shot count, because once you use it the first time, it's a matter of blood, and again, being on the inside is the wrong place to be. Kill one of the attackers or even wound one (which in that scenario would probably amount to the same thing, just slower) and it gets personal and the attackers will burn you out and move on to another, "softer" target for food.

The single best way to survive armed combat is to avoid it.

Oh, and as far as ammo goes, be sure to save the last few rounds for yourself and your family if you try to defend your urban homestead. It will be far more merciful than those that you've just been shooting at will be.

-- Hardliner (searcher@internet.com), January 18, 1999.

Hardliner:

Your so right about the inside being the danger zone thing. I guess the more preparations I make my hosue impenetrable the more it makes it a target. And I guess that I would be abhorred at the idea of shooting a man or a dozen others because they are hungry. I'll rethink the "dig in" attitude and start planning a "bug out" theory instead. I guess trying to balance the best theoretical lan with the fact that there may be thousands of dying people around me is more than a one man sized project. I'll look into a community safe haven and maybe I can be more of a contribution there than I could ever be alone in my Three Little Pigs house. Maybe I ought to brush up on my military theory whuile I'm at it before I make another critical blunder. Thanks for the opposing criticsm, and your always welcome at my postY2K house for a bowl of cold rice...lol

-- (Smoke@Fire.com), January 18, 1999.

If a dog thinks you are afraid of him he will bite you. So if your enemy thinks you are not afraid you may bluff your way out. You can also act crazy...most people are afraid of crazies..I am.....I am going to stay where I am cause I can run but I can"t hide! They may "eat my lunch" but I'm going to get a sandwich. I have no problem with those that "head for the sticks" but for many (myself included) it just will not work. So it is fight or flight and I will fight. Win some, lose some, and some are rained out! I'm in a big city and I have learned some survival skills reading these forums...and having spent many valuable hours in a lot of redneck bars.

-- red (okie-redneck@webtv.net), January 18, 1999.

"Smoke",

I sincerely hope that you will devise another strategy, because re-enacting the siege of the Alamo will just turn out the same way.

There's an excellent essay called something like Tom's Take II or something close on the 'net (can someone give "Smoke" the URL?) and there used to be a few threads on Gary North's home preparation forum about useful things to do to "harden" your house. If you have no option, don't go down for free, but the best strategy is to not be where TSHTF when it does. Think in terms of caches of survival goods where "bad guys" won't find them or won't look. Remember the old Russion riddle; Why do Russians oil their gardens? (answer: So their guns don't rust) Don't appear prosperous and do everything you can to make your home appear uninviting to "hostiles". A shotgun or other firearm is simply an "I/O device" controlled by the real weapon--your mind. Most importantly, keep your priorities straight. Consider how you'd feel if not "taking the chances of having everything I worked for overrun", cost you your wife or one of your children. Think how much value all that "stuff" would have for them if you were the one who was lost. I think I read you correctly that you wouldn't make the trade, and it IS your choice, but only if you make it in advance.

You've got the community idea right, and if you happen on the small one that I'm a part of, you'd find yourself welcome. I suspect that honest people with goodness in their hearts will find themselves not only welcome, but in demand in communities where numbers and skills and positive moral values will have survival value far exceeding today's.

I certainly wish you all the best.

-- Hardliner (searcher@internet.com), January 18, 1999.

****" A shotgun or other firearm is simply an "I/O device" controlled by the real weapon--your mind. Most importantly, keep your priorities straight. Consider how you'd feel if not "taking the chances of having everything I worked for overrun", cost you your wife or one of your children. Think how much value all that "stuff" would have for them if you were the one who was lost. I think I read you correctly that you wouldn't make the trade, and it IS your choice, but only if you make it in advance. "******

Damn,....Hardliner...I wish I'd said this....Bravo!

-- Donna Barthuley (moment@pacbell.net), January 18, 1999.

If it gets to the point where a small (10,000 People) Midwestern town sees massive rioting and violence, then no one is safe. Even you, Mr. Milne will be screwed just like the rest of us, especially considering how vocal you are. If Y2K is a ten then no amount of preparation is enough to guarantee your safety. You may be less likely to be kissed by a .45, but you're far from being in the green. Those of us who haven't moved to the sticks by now probably can't. It does absolutely no good to tell us that we're going to die. Also, by portraying our situation as hopeless, you're making a convincing argument to do nothing. I hope that you haven't convinced any people that are new to the issue to give up and go unprepared.

-- d (d@dgi.com), January 18, 1999.

I believe that, though riots will destroy the cities, rural "farmers" like Mr. Milne will be left alive to provide food for the military government and troops, through forced labor and "nationalization" of all food sources and supplies.

-RC

-- Runway Cat (runway_cat@hotmail.com), January 18, 1999.

There's survival groups around that will survive. They are well stocked, armed, and wouldn't hesitate to shoot you between the eyes. Paul Milne has it right. The more I visualize the scenes in my head, and the more information I gather, the more ruthless the ideas are becoming in my head. If you arm yourself but your afraid to use the gun, then you are doomed. If you have stocked your pantry but your resolved to the fact that your going to hand it over, then you are doomed. And as for my stuff being of value for someone else, there will be a few cases tainted with stuff they will never forget. It will be dog eat dog.

-- readyandwaiting (readyandwaiting@bang.com), January 18, 1999.

And yes, Paul, be sure to feed the troops oatmeal laced with D-Con. Gee, Sarg, I don't know what happened to your troops, they were just fine a minute ago.

-- GeeSarg (GeeSarg@oops.com), January 18, 1999.

I'm not saying that Milne is wrong. I hope he is but things just aren't getting better. Every time I squeeze off a round at the range, it just hurts a little bit more. Everyone sounds so cold blooded here, so ready to kill... I'm not so sure that I'd want to be in a survival group that, "wouldn't hesitate to shoot you between the eyes." How much of our humanity are we willing to sacrifice? In the situation we're talking about, some of the looters are probably going to be people that you know (especially in a very small town). I'm not terribly excited about shooting someone that I went to highschool with. I'd do it, but damn. Are you folks really taking the idea of killing so lightly, or is this your way of coping with the situation? No judgement here, I just want to know.

-- d (d@dgi.com), January 19, 1999.

OK.. one more time.....everyone can not move to the countryside.....some of us plan to stay in the city. I plan to be one tough SOB and if I must pick up a weapon I will damn sure use it! I know my neighbors and my area of the city. Many who attempt to scare and belittle those of us who will stay put are in the small towns or back country now and seem to be getting their kicks with their descriptions of the horrors of Y2k city life. If it is hell for me I don't think it will be a day at the beach for you.

-- yourworstnightmare (feelingputdown@city.com), January 19, 1999.

Yourworstnightmare: You have to do what you have to do. It is true that it's not a good idea to be in the city when hell breaks loose. If you choose to stay that's your business and you'll probably be a tougher hombre than some who choose to live in the city. You'll definately have more people to shoot, and the constant stress of wondering if someone is going to kick your door in or set your house on fire. Stock up on plywood and board those windows up. Hell of a way to live, but that's what survival means. You do what you got to do. And d--: There's nothing cold bloody about protecting your own turf and family. No one has a right to cause harm to you. It will be tit for tat as far as I am concerned. Who knows what any one of us will do in a time of stress? Will we become one of them? Let's put the shoe on the other foot now. None of us like to think that we could become a looter or a beggar, but hunger only knows that it needs to be fed. If the government comes and confiscates your food and supplies and divey's them up, that mean's everyone is the same then doesn't it? It all becomes a fair playing field. What will you do then? Will you become a looter, a beggar, or a bullet to the head? Just be careful about any oatmeal the government gives you to eat, it may be D-Con.

-- GeeSarg (GeeSarg@OOPS.com), January 19, 1999.

Good points on this thread. Any possible 'home court advantage' of having the energy lines and stores is balanced out by the disadvantage of being a sitting target.

In addition to the advantages of avoiding escalating to armed engagement with the adversary, by using proper 'social engineering,' more efficient resolution may be found by negotiation.

A central concern in home security is that the attacker can have the element of surprise as the various lines of defense are surreptitiously crossed and you wake up on the wrong end of the barrel, or you hear a family member getting taken hostage down the hall (rendering the on-site ordnance a negative value). If you hear a rock coming through a first floor window you do have a window of opportunity to stop the crime, but the response needs to be systematic to allow for the countless possible scenarios.

To improve the odds on defending a home, plan for intruder detection and early warning of perimeter violation, then locate, track, identify, and if necessary acquire the target. If building violation is detected, have a lockdown alert system or better, use remote control deadbolts and locking door handles that can be activated with a pocket remote. With remote power deadbolts you could trap the intruder. See smarthome.com, they also have remote motion detectors and related security products. Much of it (but not all) runs on 120vac, so failover power system is needed.

-- Jon (jonmiles@pacbell.net), January 19, 1999.

I guess I shouldn't have been working so hard to find new cures for cancer in the past 3 years. I should have instead been working at a real, high-paying job--but living humble, saving and scrounging. I should have learned how to shoot a gun and I should have moved to the countryside to hang out with all you party animals! Boy oh boy. You guys really scare me. You really do.

I have prepared somewhat...I have a whole cuppboard full of dry food and canned goods to save for 00. I have a coleman stove and about 12 cans of white gas. I have storage cans designed to fit 18 gallons of gas in case I have to bug out and travel half-way across the country for greener pastures.

If I am to believe some of the people on this thread, this level of preparation is not even close to being enough, since I suppose I'll need LAND (acres and acres)on which to grow food, my own WELL, my own MACHINE GUN, my own M-1 TANK, and my own pack of semi-wild Rotts who are trained to lunge for the jugular on command. While I'm at it, I guess I should have had a special flag with a giant Skull and Crossbones on it and a solar-operated, flashing sign saying "Get the F*** off my property or your pathetic hide will be full of bullets (and promptly turned into protein-rich jerky!)"

On second thoughts, when or if TSHTF, when you see me wandering in a daze near your sandbagged compound, PLEASE shoot me right away. I hope you and your dogs find me tasty.

-- Harrison Bergeron (coprolith@rocketship.com), January 19, 1999.

This may sound a bit off the wall, esp. to the doomsters here. But -- within limits -- each of us can affect his or her personal outcome. Keep on with your preparations, but focus your intention on the way you really want things to work out. Even if you think it's a waste of time.

Focus -- really focus, not just fiddle around -- on a well-intentioned, viable local community, and your chances of meeting like-minded people will increase. Focus -- as many seem to be doing -- on how you'll stand off the ravening hordes, and you will also increase your chances of meeting like-minded people.

In either case you and those you meet will reinforce each other and your mutual energy and effort will be moving toward whichever situation you have elected.

Feel free to ignore this as flaky, shaky, tree-hugging babyfood.

But that's the way things work. We're all doing this now anyhow, each in our own way. Our intentions shape our lives. Always have, always will. Thing to remember is, we're not legacy .exe programs. We can change what we're looking for.

We're all coming up to a cusp of the world here. It's a rare opportunity.

Boswell, in his Life, quotes Samuel Johnson (who definitely had an attitude!):

"I have found you an argument; I am not obliged to find you an understanding."

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), January 21, 1999.

I second that Tom. I remember reading an essay by a guy who'd walked, I mean completely on foot, all the way down Africa across the Sahara down to South Africa. He said he'd learned one main thing as he walked across the entire continent:

you meet your mood

-- runway cat (runway_cat@hotmail.com), January 21, 1999.

Harrison...I like the idea of a "get off my property" sign. Thanks to all for any ideas on how to survive in the city. I am not planning to "hunker in the bunker" just to save money or be Mr. Macho. If this thing I am preparing for should happen to escalate to a "8-10" then my behavior protecting my family and food will be at least equal to the behavior of the pathetic bastards attempting forced entry into my home. BTW it anyone real sure where the mobs/gangs are going to be spending their time? Are they going to pass up the food warehouses etc etc etc to find my one home in the midst of thousands of homes (both occupied and unoccupied). I will do nothing to attract them but If I know they are attracted then I will make sure they know my attitude. In this nightmare scenerio when do they decide the "pickens" are better outside of town? I think I can make my house just as safe here in the city as anyone can out in the country. There are positives and negatives to either position. I just don't feel I gain enough to make up for what I lose. Uncle Sam gave me some free training and a part of my nature would be stimulated by acting out this ugly fantasy. So I guess its just going to be different strokes for different folks. I wish everyone the very best luck with their preparations wherever they may be in 344 days 22 hours 2 minutes and 20 seconds from now.

-- yourworstnightmare (feelingputdown@city.com), January 21, 1999.

A bit of advice to "yourworstnightmare" --

As I've said before -- in the bunker scenario--

The more bodies you leave hanging on the razor wire, the more convinced the rest of the pack will be that you've got something they want. Sooner or later somebody will remember fire arrows, and toast happens. While waiting for that, how can you be sure that your supply of bullets exceeds the number of people heading your way?

Sorry about that.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), January 21, 1999.

You have to make yourself invisible. You build, locate, a safe place on your property, where you can hide. You leave the house open. No food inside. No reason for them to stay. You have to have your food, etc hidden around the property, but don't do what Paul Milne does and let the whole world know you've got tons of food buried. This mind set is only if you think this thing is going to get ugly. I'm planning for the worst, that does'nt mean I believe the worst is going to happen

-- thinkIcan (thinkIcan@make.it), January 21, 1999.