The Significance of April (from PNG's site)greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Here's just a tidbit of what's here lately PNG's Site in Japan .
"If you want to put significance to April, 1999, it may be the juncture beyond which, we can do little more to increase the pace of remediation. You might say that we've turned onto final approach and are commited to land. Just like the Space Shuttle, there are no 'go arounds.'"
-- Hardliner (email@example.com), January 18, 1999
This is a very important article. It's important because a lot of us are expecting noticeable business computer problems with some companies on February 1, and noticeable government computer problems with New York state and Canada on April 1.
These dates could come and go without the public noticing a thing. Here's a quote from the article Hardliner has linked above:
"Japan begins FY 1999 on April 1, 1999 - it does NOT begin FY 2000 on April 1, 1999.
"Fiscal years have little to do with company or country operations. Producing products, providing services and distributing them are the elements that create commerce. Looking ahead in projections and deciding where and when you are going to post the results is keeping score...not producing, providing or distributing.
"If an entity has system problems during a FY rollover, it certainly won't be the first time in their history. And neither will it be the last. Most will be transparent to the customer and even people outside the accounting or IT departments will not know that the problem is being worked."
-- Kevin (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 18, 1999.
Who's the guy that wrote this article? He doesn't put his name or his occupation.
"Here is a bit of irony. The Gartner Group reports that the U.S. is the leader in y2k remediation and leads the top tier -15% of companies will be unable to produce or deliver their product. Japan is ranked in the third tier - 50% failure. I live in Japan.
I'm the one who feels sorry for you (if you're in America). I have no fear of my neighbors or strangers. My wife can walk on any street at 3 AM without fear.
Anacostia, Cabrini Green, East St. Louis, Watts, East L.A. - - - No thanks. I'll take third tier."
My response to this is:
With apples at $3 a piece, he had better get his ass in gear and make some money. When 50% of their businesses fail, it won't get any prettier! No thanks, I'll stay in the good ole U S of A., where I might still have a job and apples cost a hell of a lot less.
-- (@@@.@), January 18, 1999.
From a National Public Radio, January 18, 1999 6:00 PM newscast...
"It is widely reported that many Japanese companies will be swimming in red ink at the close of the fiscal year on March 31st".
-- Dan (DanTCC@Yahoo.com), January 18, 1999.
"and apples cost a hell of a lot less"
For how long? If we import 57% of our oil, and all of the other countries are behind us in remediation, how much oil will we be able to import in 2000? Less gasoline=shortages=higher prices=less trucks on the highway=less food in the stores=$3 apples.
-- Gayla Dunbar (email@example.com), January 18, 1999.
Dan and @@@@,
PNG is on our side. He's made many insightful comments on this forum in the past on global economics and on Y2K. He's not a Pollyanna (and neither am I).
Japan's fiscal year does end on March 31, 1999--Fiscal Year 1998. When Japan closes the books on their Fiscal Year 1998 and makes a report, the news will be bad. Japan is going through a situation similar to the Savings & Loan crisis the U.S. did in the 1980's, but many times worse. Company pension funds there are underfunded by $700 billion.
PNG has reported to us on this forum many times on the dire condition of the Japanese economy.
What's important here is that we don't carried away with the idea that we will have proof of Y2K failures on February 1 when some Fortune 500 companies enter their Fiscal Year 2000, or that we will have proof of Y2K failures on April 1 when Canada and New York state enter their Fiscal Year 2000.
It looks to me at this point that the first Y2K problems to be noticed could either be problems with the IRS during tax season, or when nuclear power plants that are supposed to be compliant by July 1 aren't.
-- Kevin (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 18, 1999.
Dan and @@@@:
Take care how you rap someone. PNG has been around a long time and his credentials are impecable. (lots better than my spelling. lol) he is a very reliable observer of the Japanese scene and is willing to spend about $1 per minute for online time, when he graces us with his presence.
-- Chuck, night driver (email@example.com), January 18, 1999.
Post something that will convince me you're fit to shine PNG's shoes, then we'll talk.
-- Uncle Deedah (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 18, 1999.
The fact that PNG's wife can CURRENTLY walk the streets at 3 AM bears absolutely no relationship to conditions that will ensue if the Japanese electrical grid collapses for a month or two. Hungry humanity is, or can be, as 'red in tooth and claw' as any part of the animal kingdom, and their location on the globe is irrelevant.
As a sidenote, I find the cult of personality that has apparently been built up around several contributors to this forum to be quite amusing, but far from productive.
-- Wakeup (email@example.com), January 18, 1999.
PNG's article is about the significance of April. We could get too worked up about possible government glitches on April 1 that may not be visible.
There was some media criticism of Y2K concern when there weren't as many bugs as we thought there might be on January 1 (1999). And some of us use these "trigger dates" to figure out how thorough our preparations need to be.
Would anyone care to discuss whether fiscal-year rollovers will be visible to the public?
-- Kevin (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 19, 1999.
Kevin, Chuck, et al:
"corroboration": to support with evidence or authority : make more certain.
My post was in support of PNG's position. Sorry if that wasn't clear.
I have read past posts from PNG and found them to be factual and of merit.
Please don't shoot the messenger. I'm on your side. :)
-- Dan (DanTCC@Yahoo.com), January 19, 1999.
"Hungry humanity is, or can be, as 'red in tooth and claw' as any part of the animal kingdom, and their location on the globe is irrelevant."--Wakeup
Couldn't be further from the truth.
Starving people during the depression and the war did not pillage in Canada, nor in Germany. I have first hand account from my parents about Canada, and perhaps one of our Yourdonites here could share with you his own starving experience in Germany. In both country, the culture was very cohesive, and social values simply made it so no crime happened as they were starving.
According to PNG, Japan is such a culture.
-- Chris (email@example.com), January 19, 1999.
Chris wrote: "Starving people during the depression and the war did not pillage in Canada, nor in Germany"
Define starving. In the cases you describe, food was difficult to come by, or not of high quality perhaps when available, but these cases do not represent *famine* conditions. While many people did perish from malnutrition or outright starvation, there was no mass die-off of people that is typical of famines. When there is *no food* available, at any price, no matter what your position in society (which, given Japan's dependence on imported foodstuffs, may indeed be the case, post Y2K), I submit that the thin veneer of civilized behavior will peel away to a great or lesser extent.
Granted, in cultures where the societal pressures are very strong, there will doubtless be less strife in event of a famine compared to cultures with 'devil-take-the-hindmost' mindset. However, I still think that PNG's wife would be extremely ill-advised to take that stroll...
-- Wakeup (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 19, 1999.
Anyone care to discuss the significance of April FY rollovers?
-- Kevin (email@example.com), January 19, 1999.
Because FY roll-over problems are masked from public view, a false sense of complacency and "I told you so..." by media people who don't have the technical or practical business experience to draw from, will probably continue through June of 1999.
My contention is that July will be the starting point for the economic downturn. The stock market looks ahead only 6 months. July is the deadline many major companies have set for vendor compliance. An example is GM. They have emphatically stated that noncompliant vendors will be dropped after July. It remains to be seen if they stick to their guns. If GM and others follow through on their committment, management of noncompliant vendors will go running to their customers to ask for more time...and NOW they will promise to get serious about this "y2k thing." Money has been spent as a necessary evil but, revenues have yet to be affected by y2k. Nothing gets a CEO's, and stock analysts' attention faster than the loss of a major customer's money.
To @@@@ et al: Who is this guy? No name or occupation? I understand why people use an alias at this site. However, my e-mail addresss has always been my real address and I have always tried to answer messages sent to me. Some people have revealed their true identity and they come from very influential companies and organizations. I have never violated their request for anonymity and I have always used my real name in my responses. There is enough information at my site about my background.
There are good and bad points about every country. I've tried to provide a productive insight into Japan from 7 years of life here. I walk the halls and factories of companies. I'm not a tourist. I have obligations here. My wife does not speak English, her grandfather and mother are ill and in Japan, the younger generation take care of the older generations as the need arises. Japanese hospital care is inexpensive (as is insurance) because there is no tort law, no contigency fee based malpractice lawsuits and very few lawyers.
An OB/GYN in the U.S. pays approximately $100,000 per year for malpractice insurance. No so in Japan. The bad part is that the family is expected to provide assistance to the patient in the hospital. Family members help bathe, feed and provide nonmedical care to the patient.
If I wanted to go back to the U.S., getting a geen card for my wife could take 1-2 years. My choice is to stay and help my wife's family prepare for a situation they no little about because of the lack of media attention to y2k here in Japan.
And BTW, Japanese people were starving at the end and after the war. The people didn't kill each other for food. Your image of a thin veneer is incorrect. The "wa" of Japanese culture runs deep. But that's just my perspective... if you don't agree, that's your choice.
-- PNG (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 19, 1999.
You say that there will be enough disruption in the U.S. to drive apples to $3 each. If that's the case, what do you think will happen in Japan? Duuuuhh! Apples there are $3 now, so that would raise them to about $30 each. Either way, as I said I'll be much better off here than in Japan.
Blow me. I don't shine nobody's fuckin shoes, but you can kiss my ass. I did not insult PNG, I merely wondered what his background is that gives him the right to say that he's better off in Japan. It doesn't say on his site, and I still don't have the answer to that question.
If you don't like the U.S., good! ... Don't bad mouth our country and don't come back!
-- (@@@.@), January 22, 1999.
I tend to agree with PNG's idea of cultural differences leading to differences in relative calm and safety. Though Japan is not as safe for women as usually supposed, it's not bad.
Lately for some reason I've been thinking about Finland. Imagine a large country of only a few million people. Plenty of water (snow, lakes), timber, tough people, cohesive culture, isolated location. Unless the Russians try to gobble 'em again, I'll bet they come through Y2K better than most parts of the US.
Well "hei hei" for now!
-- Runway Cat (Runway_Cat@hotmail.com), January 22, 1999.