Over the last several days, it appears that emergency and stand-by generators are becoming scare in supply. Small generator suppliers have been backordered for several months. However, it now appears that some of the large suppliers are beginning to be backordered.

Honda makes one of the better line of portable generators. Honda dealers and retailers across the country are reporting backorders on generators. Unlike the past, these backorders are not from the distributor, but are reported as "the next ship-load will be here in June or July". I talked to a large Honda dealer in the mid-west on Friday and learned that the Honda diesel generators are backordered until at least May. Over the weekend, people from Kansas, Virginia, Georgia, New York, Indiana, Minnesota, and Texas have reported shortages of all types of generators at Lowes, Costco, Sams, and Home Depot.

Northern Tools and Equipment http://northern-online.com is a large distributor of generators. They are one of the largest Honda dealers in the US. This morning, I called and asked about generator availability. I was amazed! They normally stock about 50 models of generators from Honda, Generac, Homelite, Coleman, Onan, Dyna, and Northern (their in-house brand made by Gillette). The earilest that any Honda model will be available is the first part of March. They have no stock on any 5000 watt units. They have a few Colemans and Homelights and one Generac model. Their professional quality in-house brand (Northern Pro) is backordered until July. Their diesels are backordered until July.

This is the first widespread news of generator shortages from major suppliers. For now, I would call this shortage a trend, not a certainty. However, it certainty looks like a shortage in the making. I'm sure that these shortages will encourage the suppliers to ramp up production, but with these kinds of lead times for delivery, I doubt that they will catch up before the first of the year.

This shortage is a harbinger of things to come. Certain items will be in short supply because they *may* be needed if interruptions in service occur due to Y2K. Because Y2K hits everywhere (not just the Florida coast in the case of a hurricane), people everywhere (not just on the Florida coast) want emergency preparedness supplies. The system simply can not produce enough supplies to fill the demand. Prices will rise and many people will simply have to do without. I don't particularly like this trend, but individually I can not change it. If I fail to act early, I may not have the option to purchase certain items.

-- Anonymous, January 18, 1999

Answers

While I'm just another "Joe Smuckatelli" on this issue, it seems to me that some of the demand for generators FROM PRIVATE CITIZENS might slacken as the weather gets warmer.

However, I read some posts indicating that Federal Government groups have "first pick" of generators in the mid-west US, and that this is causing shortages. *IF* Federal/State/Local governments decide to stock-up, there will be NONE left for private individuals, IMHO...

-- Anonymous, January 18, 1999

This is from Y2k News Magazine

Delaware/New Jersey - Cape May, New Years 2000 celebrations cancelled due to "government Agencies" putting a hold on all, I'm presuming, large capacity generators.

http://www.newszap.com/118b.html

-- Anonymous, January 18, 1999

Generators are just one thing we can fully expect to have shortages of in the days to come. It's just not that easy to rapidly ramp up production of some things. (The Home Depot in my area, North Carolina, has been out of generators for a few weeks. They normally have six or seven on the floor. I thought they went where the bad weather was, and was expecting to see the shelves re-stocked within a few weeks. I'll keep my eyes open.)

I've chosen to do without a generator so I am focussing on non-electric methods of doing things. However; I expect shortages of hand cranked grain mills, (many pre-packed food storage programs include lots of whole grains that need to be milled), good lanterns, good camp stoves, and many other items by the end of the summer, if not sooner.

I'd be mildly surprised if generators were generally difficult to come by from this point on. If I don't see them re-stocked locally within a few weeks then I'll have to speed up my preparation schedule by a few months.

If I thought I needed a generator to get by I would have bought one by now.

-- Anonymous, January 18, 1999

I was just at the local Home Depot the other day and they had no fewer than 6 Generac XL4000s, 3 each Generac XL5500s and MC6500s, and 4 Coleman 5000s w/Vanguard engines....

-- Anonymous, January 19, 1999

Today's Denver Post has an article about generator shortages. (This was originally linked by G. North.) Snips follow:

Generators are going fast By Jim Hughes http://www.denverpost.com/news/y2k/y2k0118.htm

[Snip]

Jan. 18 - We may be only halfway into the first month of the last year before the much awaited dropping of our digital society's other shoe - size Y2K - but the rush on one contingency item has already begun.

Ladies and gentleman, start your engines.

[Snip]

Although some of the Colorado purchases may be unrelated to Y2K hype, which reached an all-time high in news outlets with the arrival of 1999 this month, the millennium bug is a hot topic in their stores, say generator retailers. And stock is running low, they say. Assurances by utility companies that 2000 will probably arrive without so much as the dimming of a lightbulb seem to have had little effect on the phenomenon.

"I'm sure it's because of the Y2K thing," said Tim Laing, a sales manager at Aurora Honda who said his store is almost out of generators and has little chance of getting more from Honda because of the spiraling demand for the portable machines nation wide. "That's what everybody's talking about."

Manufacturers are having trouble keeping up with the demand for generators, said Jeffrey Smith, a spokesman for American Honda Motor Co., but much of that demand is unrelated to Y2K concerns. Hurricane Georges and other severe weather events have created an increased need for generators, he said.

"The upward trend in sales existed before people started worrying about this issue," he said. "Honda is at full production, and we're making every effort to meet the increasing demand."

At Spitzer Industrial Products in Denver, salespeople are finding themselves more popular than ever, said parts manager Joyce Bauer. Stock at her store is also running low, she said. And some manufacturers are reporting they won't be able to restock the more popular models until July.

[snip]

... people nonetheless are buying up generators as they never have before ... And these new customers aren't all camouflage-wearing survivalists, Bauer said. "This is everybody," she said. "Your regular Joe Homeowner. A lot of them are concerned about the power, especially for their computers. Those are the two biggest things - heat and computers. They don't seem to worry about lights or anything else."

And while Laing said he would like nothing more than to stock up for what he thinks will be continuing demand for the devices, that might not be an option, he said. "We kind of missed out on the boat," he said. "Now that we see what's happening, we can't really get more units from Honda. Everything we wanted was back-ordered a couple weeks ago." Laing recently received a letter from Honda headquarters warning that generator stock is low across the country. "They're warning the dealers: "Get your money out of them,' " Laing said.

But Honda has no intention of marketing millennial fever, said Smith.

[Snip]

---------------------- end of article

-- Anonymous, January 19, 1999

On Jan.21st my husband ordered a 7500 watt generator from Sears. They were out of stock but assured us that another shipment was due in on Feb. 4th. We had problems finding anything in the OKC area in the hardware/lumber/Sam's type stores. Haven't heard anything about the reliability of these but we have many Sears appliances and have had no real problems. Maybe this source can work for you.

-- Anonymous, January 22, 1999

I work for the only generator manufacturer in the world who has generators in stock. I know this, because we have thoroughly researched the competition, and most of our generators are back- ordered for up to 18 months. Usually, with such high demand, manufacturers would buy more equipment to build a bigger manufacturing facility, but with the surge of orders before Y2K, and the potential of that surge greatly dissepating after Y2K, it just is not worth the $$$.

For anyone ordering a generator now, be wary of the time they say it will take to send you a generator. Many companies have offered false promises to our researchers. We know who has our generators and when they will receive stock, but they told our "spies" otherwise.

Feel free to email me if you would like information on a Coleman generator you can receive in two weeks.

-- Anonymous, March 23, 1999