If any of you have read my article at:

http://www.cbn.org/y2k/insights.asp?file=990114o.htm

about how NERC presented the statistics on their recent report, you'll know that I used this same data to better show where utilities are in their estimations of completion. In that article I dealt only with the stats for the Remediation/Testing phase. Some people have expressed interest in where utilities estimated they were for the Inventory and Assessment phases. Here's where the "racers" are for those two phases. Remember, these estimations are for Mission Critical systems only.

Inventory: 117 out the total 188 responding utilities (62%) say they have completely finished their inventory. Another 41 utilities (22%) estimate they are in the range of 91 to 99% done. In the 81 to 90% range, there are 20 utilities (11%). In the 71 to 80% range there are 6 utilities (3%). The remaining four responding utilities estimated their completion of inventory at: 67%, 50%, 50%, and 0%

Assessment: 61 out of the total 188 (32%) say they have completely finished their assessment. 27 utilities are in the 91 to 99% finished range. 32 utilities are in the 81 to 90% finished range. 28 are in the 71 to 80% range.

Only 4 utilities are in the 61 to 70% finished range of assessments. 8 are in the 51 to 60% range. 10 are in the 41 to 50% segment. 6 utilities are in both the 31 to 40% and 21 to 30% ranges. 2 utilities are between 11 and 20% finished, and 4 utilities reported they were at 0%.

I'm sorry I couldn't present this data in a nice chart, but I'm pressed for time and just trying to get the information out. The directions, for any readers who wish to access this data themselves, are given in the article at the above link.

I think you can see for yourselves that the "averages" NERC gave in their recent report of 96% of Inventory being complete and 82% of Assessment being complete do NOT indicate that all utilities are at those levels. Since NERC has itself admitted that "the strength of the overall system may only be as strong as the weakest link", I suggest they forget the "averages". We're watching you, NERC, and we've got YOUR numbers!

-- Anonymous, January 15, 1999

Answers

HI! I have read the article you wrote and think it was fabulous. I am not terribly versed in the industry language though, and I have a question. What exactly is the difference between the inventory and assessment phases? I realize that there are many steps that the individual companies must go through in order to ensure compliance, I just don't know what those steps are. For instance, if a company has completed their assessment phase, what do they have left to do?

It is probably a little late in the game to be asking these questions, but some of us are just starting to realize the potential problems. If this information is already given in another area, just point me in the right direction. Thanks for any help and thank you for your great articles. Keep them coming!

-- Anonymous, January 15, 1999

Melanie, sometimes those of us who are used to computer project "lingo" forget that many others are not familiar with it. Your question is a good one, and in answer I'll give you an excerpt from Part Two of my "Shining The Light On Utility 10Qs" article, which is awaiting Rick Cowles return to be posted. It addresses what you want to know.

"For those readers who do not have any experience with computer technology projects, and who might wish to read their local utility 10Q report, there are four relatively standard phases: Inventory, Assessment, Remediation and Testing. Allowing for individual terminology or wording differences, all utilities basically followed this pattern in their Y2K projects. Here is an ultra simple definition of each phase:

Inventory - What computer software, hardware, and systems have we got and where are they located?

Assessment - What parts of our inventory could have Year 2000 date problems and of those, what parts DO have date problems which could affect their proper functioning? (Note - "testing" is often used in reference to this phase, as in testing to determine if there are problems. This is not to be confused with the Testing phase.)

Remediation - Fixing the problems or replacing affected systems with new compliant systems. The word "modification" is sometimes used instead of remediation.

Testing - Determining if the fixes and installations of new products work and if they integrate (get along with) other systems they might be connected to. Computer professionals are in general agreement that there are always errors introduced when fixes or upgrades are performed. Testing helps to locate these other errors, which are then fixed themselves. Testing can be (and optimally should be) continued until the error level reaches a point where the proper functioning of the system is not affected."

All good wishes to you in your search for information!

-- Anonymous, January 15, 1999

Thanks for the explanation. I was exactly what I was looking for. As usual, I see you were one step ahead of the game. I can't wait to read the article when Rick gets back.

-- Anonymous, January 15, 1999

Thanks for the explanation. It was exactly what I was looking for. As usual, I see you were one step ahead of the game. I can't wait to read the entire article when Rick gets back.

Melanie

-- Anonymous, January 15, 1999

Inventory: 117 out the total 188 responding utilities (62%) say they have completely finished their inventory.

Doesn't it bother you that only 188 utilities have responded? Perhaps I'm wrong, but I think that represents something like 10% of the total NERC membership.

-- Anonymous, January 17, 1999

RD, that's a really good point you've brought up. I probably should have put more some more background info out on the NERC reporting. Since you've jogged my memory, I'll do that now. This is from page 7 of the recent NERC report to the DOE, under the "Readiness Assessment Process":

"The reporting process had been completed on a monthly basis since its inception in July 1998. The NERC questionnaire is targeted to the approximately 200 entities that own, operate, or monitor the bulk electric systems of North America."

In the following paragraphs we find, "A separate process to gather information from the 3,000 distribution systems is managed under NERC supervision by the American Public Power Association (APPA), the Canadian Electricity Association (CEA), the Edison Electric Institute (EEI), and the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA)." And, "NERC has enlisted the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) to provide assessment findings for nuclear facilities.."

So it appears that while NERC is overseeing the rest of these information gathering efforts, they themselves are concentrating on the biggest bulk generators of electricity. "Approximately 200" is also one of those ambiguous statements which doesn't let us know exactly how many non-responding members of the survey there were.

The other info gathering by APPA, etc. is "consolidated" in the NERC report around page 33. While it does mention that APPA had a very good response, it doesn't say if that response was overall for the last few months. (For instance, what if you heard from some companies in July 1998 and others in different months, but only half of them recently? Does this comprise a 100% response? Overall, yes, but it's not what we want to base present status on.) There are no numbers given about the response levels (compared to total) for the other agencies, either.

There's so much we don't know, all we can do is work with the data we do have available. Yes, it bothers me that there are undoubtedly some entities in the electric industry that are not responding with info at all. NERC has also mentioned the problem of how to achieve fuller participation in its reports, but since they don't have any enforcement power in this regard, even they are dealing with what info they can gain by cooperation. I don't think anybody has a definitive grasp of the *whole* status of the electric industry, or any other infrastructure segment for that matter.

That's one of the reasons I believe the wise thing to do is to prepare for Year 2000 disruptions; the lack of status information is difficult to come by even for overseeing agencies. There is nothing exact about any predictions because there is nothing exact about assessing Y2K status - much as we might wish otherwise!

-- Anonymous, January 18, 1999

Correction: Talk about switching thoughts in midstream - the first sentence, last paragraph above should have "the lack of" omitted. Status info is difficult to come by.

-- Anonymous, January 18, 1999