I used to be a writer. Still am, in fact, although I haven't done anything major in a while.

Anyway, when I was writing, I used what I called "convergence". Simply put, I started four or five subplots off. They slowly merged together and caused a story to happen. At the point where they began to interconnect, the story began to write itself and it also gets a whole lot more interesting. Think of it as the climax, except that it tended to last between half and two-thirds of the story.

It feels like we're in that first third, right now.

Factors are building up simultaneously. The economy; it's on the point of collapse. Brazil has gone blooey; Asia has been in the hole for a long time. Meanwhile, the Dow is going crazy, jumping or falling 100-250 points every day. Stocks are overvalued at an absurd level.

Meanwhile,

Y2k is coming at us at the rate of 60 seconds a minute. When it happens, the West is going to be screwed. Our high-tech weapons systems, especially the ones that like the GPS, will stop working.

Meanwhile,

Russia, the old second empire, is a few inches from the precipice. Does anyone here NOT agree when I say I expect the country to collapse into revolution or civil war within a couple of years?

Meanwhile,

Russia's next door neighbour, China, has gained increased economic power but not such increased political freedom. The rise of a third empire?

Meanwhile,

Africa is in a situation very similar to Europe in July 1914. Hell, it's in a situation very similar to Europe in NOVEMBER 1914. Four major wars happening. AIDS has 25% of the population. The countries that aren't fighting, are about to.

Meanwhile,

Modern technology -the internet especially, and computer stuff; to a lesser extent, biotech- is going forwards at a rapid rate. We've achieved more in the last ten years than in any other 25-year period in history, in those fields. Dolly and the Pentium II.

Meanwhile,

The shit is about to hit the fan in Israel. We're LONG overdue for a war (1949, 1967, 1973, 1981...1999?), and the circumstances are going to be happening.

Meanwhile,

The American President is about to be impeached. The greatest nation in the world, the most super power, is facing a leadership crisis at the very top. An unprecedented historical event that is causing the US to lose BIG prestige across the world. Threatening the First Empire's leadership role.

What do you guys think? If I were writing a great historical epic..well, I wouldn't. I'd wait for it to write itself, because we have a important stuff about to happen NOW. If I wanted to read a great historical epic, I'd jump forwards 40 years in time and check out a history book.

If anyone's plotting the story of the human race, if we all exist on some God's word processor, then he's playing quite a nice story of convergence. Except that in this case, we're all "named" characters.

And we, as characters -not the writer- of this great world epic, don't know how it will end. It's going to be one BIG adventure finding out ;)

-- Leo (lchampion@ozemail.com.au), January 15, 1999

Answers

Yes, you still are a writer, Leo, a good one. Even without Y2K there's every reason to prepare for an emergency. One small example: now we have JIT (Just In Time ) delivery systems, a truckers' strike, for instance, could empty stores of many essential goods in less than two or three days. (Recall empty supermarket/hardware/lumber shelves half a day before an approaching hurricane.) I urge you all again, please go to The Atlantic Monthly article, The Coming Anarchy by Robert Kaplan (URL below), wade through it, and ponder the implications for continued easy availability of many raw materials and manufactured goods. http://www.theatlantic.com/atlantic/election/connection/foreign/anarch y.htm

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), January 15, 1999.

Typo in the URL.....space between "anarch" and "y". Try:

The Coming Anarchy

or:

http://www.theatlantic.com/atlantic/election/connection/foreign/ anarchy.htm

-- me (hope@thishelps.com), January 15, 1999.

Thank you for the correction, me--some of my synapses fell prey to the glories of a wonderfully misspent youth.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), January 15, 1999.

Excellent essay. And it's a nice contrast to the comment on the "deep end" tread about what a bore these y2k discussions occasionally are.

-- Entralled (not@aol.com), January 15, 1999.

Until Y2K researching, I knew it was all fragile, but I had NO idea how fragile!

Its just plain amazable! And mind boggling. Thats what.

How about writing us a good ending Leo. One where everyone wakes up in time and instead of creating the Great Crash of 1999 we all impact the Global Community of 2000.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), January 15, 1999.

Hi there Leo! Nice to see your writing again ;-) How are your for-the-rich bug-out plans going? What happened to that project you + Diane + Whitney were cooking up? What happened to Diane's response-to-Cory for WeatherReport thing? How's it going with your beautiful brainy DGI girlfriend, Leo? I need an update! Thanx :)

xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxx

-- Leska (allaha@earthlink.net), January 15, 1999.

Nice to see a response from you too, Leska ;) As you might have noticed, I haven't been around much..been trying to implement another idea of mine; when a top ad executive calls it "brilliant" without any personal motive, you know you've got something nice on your hands! (So I've been calling around the film/literary industries, trying to get information..speaking to a lot of people -who are all blissfully unaware that in a year their $100,000 lifestyles won't exist- about getting backing for it. Kinda stupid, when you consider the disaster coming down on us..)

That project, OTOH, is something that I *have* to get back on the boiler. I emailed Whit about it a few weeks ago, but never got around to following up on the page she referred me to. It's a very good idea, and we -note to Diane- have to get it going again. It could save a lot of lives.

As for my "fleece the rich" scheme ;), I'm about to start working on that again today. My fun experience on NYE `98-99 showed me that it would be NECCESSARY to get a good corridor scheme (preferably one involving tanks and attack helicopters!) if people want out on NYE. But right now I'm working on convincing people that S will HTF.

Because there's an immense amount of denial. "It won't affect us." "They'll fix it all in time". "Embedded chips- what are they?..Oh, they can't do much." I now understand the "wall of denial" thing; people just refuse to accept logic. Oh well; when I write up my collations, they should convince anyone intelligent. As for anyone else..well, I guess Darwinism has to have SOME good points.

Diane: Writing a new ending would be something that I would *love* to do.. and as (hopefully) a potential main character, maybe I can have some influence in that ;)

--Leo

-- Leo (lchampion@ozemail.com.au), January 15, 1999.

Thanks for the update, Leo! Some ppl need a personal bodyguard walking around with them; others a lawyer; you need a patent scribe ;-). Please take time to get yourself prepared in between your brainstorms. And come by more often!
Did you leave out the g/f update? Convinced her yet?

xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxx

-- Leska (allaha@earthlink.net), January 15, 1999.

Hey, Leo! Haven't seen you around these parts much lately.

I think you would enjoy a book called "The Fourth Turning." (If you haven't seen it already, and I'm sure other people would enjoy it also.) It presents an interesting view of history that I think may mesh well with your own. Check out the associated website:

http://www.fourthturning.com

Cheers!

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), January 15, 1999.

Leska,

Still contemplating the response for Cory. Gotta e him.

Been a little side-tracked on the government web-sites. Trying to see how their actions impact our community action plans. Did a really depressing search on local city and county web-sites for Y2K information. Talk about pathetic for Silicon Valley towns!

It appears that even the newly organizing grass-roots community groups are better informed about Y2K than our local governments. Izz sad!

Also need to follow up on the solar power field trip response, get ready for up-coming meetings, etc. Oh vey. Too much ta do!

Need a caffe latte big time.

Keep writing Leo.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), January 15, 1999.

For lurkers who might not know, Leo is 18. Scary huh? ;-)

Right on with Darwin Leo. You have to hang on to something to keep sane ;-)

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), January 15, 1999.

Diane, I concur. Last night went faaarrrrr far away to a little rural farming town for a Y2K Task Force meeting. Hhhhmmm. Grassroots knows lots more than most govt, but we on this Forum know so much mmmooooorrrreee than the meeting. Couldn't stand it, had to leave to stretch & pace. At the end, did talk to a 911 Dispatcher/appointed Emergency overseer type state govt guy, who had some peculiar tales to tell. Not encouraging. One thing: nobody in trooper-type positions has any intention of leaving their families/homesteads on 1/1/2000. Loyalty to wife, kids, themselves, their property/stuff.

No more crowd meetings for me. We're as prepared as suburbanly feasible, and the rest of my Y2K comradery I get here as a YourDoneEre. Govt orgs too ego/turf/ossified/slow-infested to interest me any more. I'm my own Y2K salvation, and looking to others is now a waste of time, precious OK-now enjoyable time.

Ashton came to this crossroads a long time ago; he's strong, mature, a doer, handy & hardworking and saintly. Finally I've become able to deal with Y2K scenarios emotionally so my interest is suddenly waning. Still gotta look at that Petromax ...

xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx

-- Leska (allaha@earthlink.net), January 15, 1999.