Okay, now that I've done about three solid days worth of research and all of it was put to rest by thirty minutes of explanation from my father who has been in the COBOL game since 1970 I can almost certaintly say that set aside the few minor disruptions that are easily fixable the only thing to worry about is Public hysteria.

That means when one person hears a bad report, he/she tells another and that report got ten times worse. I.E.- Suzy- " The embedded chips in the Alaskan pipeline are at risk " Jon- " The chips in the Alaskan pipeline will fail " David- " The chips in the Alaskan pipleline will cause it to fail and freeze the oil and burst the line " Mary- " The chips in the Alaskan pipleline are going to fail, cause it to burst and the entire oil production from Alaska will stop indefinatley " Joey - " Alaska is FUBAR " Mike- " Everything connected to Alaksa is FUBAR "

That is a pretty far out scenario, but right now it's being acted out in a million ways from Sunday. Noteable people like Mychel Hyatt, Gary North, and Ed Yourdon are trying to make us beleive that there will be some pretty disasterous consequences from this whole mess. And why? Think about it... they say that there will be doom and gloom, and to sell your house and buy a bag of gold and silver coins and hide them under your ten year stockpile of food. That way if Y2K comes and goes, they are forgotten and nobody remembers their prochecies... but if they are right, then they are considered genius. It's a game folks. And the most important thing to remember is an old saying when it comes to someone, anyone who thinks they know whats going to happen: " Just because his mouth is opening and closing doesn't mean it's a prayer book ".

Yes, there is going to be some really hard core issues when it comes to the rest of the third world nations who can't make a certain part and then we can't get our toasters or new VCR's for a few weeks. But in the case of most large scale places like South America, Asia and Europe, they will have the mission critical systems fixed well ahead of schedule and then the rest shortly after. Just like the United States will.

Why do I feel this way? Well my father, a well respected programmer and consultant in his own right with 30+ years of COBOL under his belt, is currently working for a larger company here in Georgia NOT working on the Y2K problem. People all over the country are well aware of his expertise and nobody is banging on his door to get a little extra help for Y2K compliance. In fact, he says, he is a little disappointed because he thought it would be a good chance to make some real good money.

This isn't going to be as bad as everyone might be thinking. But if you gou and take your money from your local bank, then two other people see you do it and then they take theirs out, and then five people see them do it and act likewise. And so on and so on and so on. Same goes for the supermarket supplies and survival gear. And much like a game of gossip that you may have played in elementary school, the original sentence was " Y2K is going to be a nuisance ". But after being passed down the line twenty times, it comes out more like " Y2K is going to be the end of western civilaztion and this is the Armegeddon that we(christians) have all been waiting for".

Let's wait until September or October and then if there is some companies who say they won't be compliant, ask them what are the consequences if they don't? After all we still have a year before the next new years and if we start going into a tizzy now then the only ripple effect that we will have to deal with is the ripple effect from 200 million scared people who have started the largest. most dangerous game of gossip yet played.

-- Adam Schaeffer (Y2KSrvivor@aol.com), January 14, 1999

Answers

Yeah? I click through on Scary Gary and read the source documents, don't you? No reliance on gossip here. Personally I'm not reassured that your dad isn't getting called for Y2K work, it just means the work isn't getting done, not that it doesn't need to get done.

-- Shimrod (shimrod@lycosmail.com), January 14, 1999.

Even source documents get routinely mistaken and invalidated. Besides, who says you can trust the people who write the source documents? I think it's just a case of alot of people who like to hear themselves talk.

-- Adam Schaeffer (Y2KSrvivor@aol.com), January 14, 1999.

HA HA HEE HA HAHO HE HAHAHA STOP IT YOU'RE KILLING ME HA HA HE HO HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH ROTFLMAO AHAAHAHAHAHA

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), January 14, 1999.

Well Doomsday, I'm glad you have a sense of humor. You ought to try applying more often to the other side of the story.

-- Adam Schaeffer (U2KSrvivor@aol.com), January 14, 1999.

"I've done about three solid days worth of research and all of it was put to rest by thirty minutes of explanation from my father"

First of all, three days of "solid" research is good, but you are on this forum with people who have been studying the situation for months or years. Some are every bit as computer savvy as your dad. You make a good point that bad news can form a feedback loop, but then you go and jump to conclusions that the problem is not that bad, citing no EVIDENCE. You are not looking at the big picture, the economic, political, social, technological and environmental context in which this is occurring.

"But in the case of most large scale places like South America, Asia and Europe, they will have the mission critical systems fixed well ahead of schedule"

What planet are you on? Please send me URLs that confirm this.

"Let's wait until September or October..."

I got a better idea: YOU wait until then. And good luck getting your shit in one sock if all hell has broken loose.

-- a (a@a.a), January 14, 1999.

Shuffle, shuffle, click, scrape.

No, no, dear put mine over here where I can see the stern better. I just love to see that wake.

Oh, and by the way I was told by reliable sources that Mr. Astor will be taking a stroll down on this deck later today.

Oh, and be sure to move a couple more chairs over here for ..............

Greybear

-Got anything?

-- Greybear (greybear@home.com), January 14, 1999.

Adam,

I disagree with you totally. You have just done exactly what you accuse others of doing....ie: your father has not been recruited to do cobol remediation, therefore America is going to be just fine, the rest of the world will have not be able to supply toasters, but otherwise will be fine. WHERE is the logic in that????

Your MAIN concern seems to be people taking their money out of the banks. I wonder how much money YOU have in the bank? If it is your life savings, are YOU willing to gamble that it will still be there IF the power fails, the telecommunications around the world fail, and businesses fail?

If you have very little money in the bank, are you simply wanting everyone else to gamble theirs just so YOU won't be inconvienienced by the economic upheaval?

Isn't it fairer for the BANKS to gamble? If as you say, Y2K will be merely some minor problems......what is wrong with letting the BANKS "tread water" for a few months without OUR money? After 01/01/2000, if YOU are right, people will put their money back into the banks, and we'll all have a good laugh. If YOU are wrong, the banks will be GONE, but perhaps OUR money won't be.

Who are you to suggest anyone other than yourself take such a gamble?

Sheila

-- Sheila (sross@bconnex.net), January 14, 1999.

Sorry Adam, that was uncalled for. I'm in kind of a bittersweet mood this morning. My wife and I went to a popular local resturant for dinner yesterday and I was amazed at the number of young women with infants and small children there. I'm talking at least a couple of dozen, and about half had two children below the age of three. I kept getting these visions in my mind of these childrens bodies frozen in roadside ditches with their arms outstretched for the protection of their mothers......The horror of what is possibly going to happen is beyond comprehension and it is my belief that most people instinctively close their eyes to this and recoil from the hard truth which is so plainly seen. The American people are soft, spoiled, and comfortable, totally lacking in any reference point from which to put this situation into perspective. I suspect if you brought a few Bosnian Serbs over here and let them look at the available information you'd have to chase them down to get their opinions.

-- Nikoli Krushev (DOOMSDAY @Y2000.COM), January 14, 1999.

First of all, Nik, don't sweat it, I know I have had a few disturbing moments in the past month and thats why I was trying to calm some otherwise panicky people.

And sheila, I wasn't asking anyone to gamble. The hard fact is that if some people take their money out of the banks just for the sake of doing it for what might be a disaster then it will affect everyone else regardless of said disaster. Look at Brazil , it's already happening and it's still a year away from the 1/1/00 deadline. I can only imagine the horror of 200 million people doing the same in the USA just because they "heard some stuff ".

-- Adam (Y2KSrvivor@aol.com), January 14, 1999.

Adam,

Yes, there is going to be some really hard core issues when it comes to the rest of the third world nations who can't make a certain part and then we can't get our toasters or new VCR's for a few weeks.

And, what if those parts that we cant get are ball bearings needed for production in our own plants or for replacement of worn out parts in front line equipment?

This isn't going to be as bad as everyone might be thinking.

First, after studying the subject for 3 days do you really know what everyone is thinking? After studying for 3 days, do you really know anything about the subject. Youre the one who said, Just because the mouth is opening and closing doesnt mean its a prayer book. Take the cotton out of your ears and stuff it into your mouth for a while. Learn. Then, speak from a base of facts, not from supposition.

Second, your comments are just a statement. You offer no proof other than that no one beat your fathers door down, and that your father -- who admittedly hasnt tried Y2K remediation -- doesn t think the COBOL side of the problem would be too bad. These are opinions. Those who predict problems offer substantial evidence that refute these opinions.

Let's wait until September or October and then if there is some companies who say they won't be compliant, ask them what are the consequences if they don't? After all we still have a year before the next new years and if we start going into a tizzy now then the only ripple effect that we will have to deal with is the ripple effect from 200 million scared people who have started the largest. most dangerous game of gossip yet played.

This statement indicates total lack of knowledge of the real problems involved.

First, even in September or October companies might want to protect their stock price and not tell the truth about their progress. Or do you really believe that everything a company says is the whole, unvarnished truth?

Do you really suppose that asking companies what the consequence of their failure, 2 months before they fail, will have any value? Were supposed to ask the companies the consequences of their failure? LOL.

If there will be failures (there will) how do you propose the entire nation will be able to react in 2 months to prepare? The name of the game is contingency planning........planning to deal with the most likely problems that we are likely to face........potential power outages, potential water supply disruptions, potential food shortages, all induced by an infrastructure that relies heavily on embedded systems that are suceptible to failure.

It takes time to make preparations. Right now the supply chain is being heavily stressed -- there are shortages of some items that may be needed because these are not everyday items. Are you really proposing that we wait until October to begin to prepare? When FEMA and the Red Cross are urging preparation now?

 After all we still have a year before the next new years........

And after all, a lot of companies have been working on the problem for years. And, many on this forum have been preparing for over a year. Were supposed to get it done in two months -- because you dont understand the problem?

My suggestion is that you spend the next year studying the problem and come back and report to us next year at this time. Your post is laughable and sophomoric.

Yes, there is going to be some really hard core issues when it comes to the rest of the third world nations who can't make a certain part and then we can't get our toasters or new VCR's for a few weeks.

And, what if those parts that we cant get are ball bearings needed for production in our own plants or for replacement of worn out parts in front line equipment?

This isn't going to be as bad as everyone might be thinking.

First, after studying the subject for 3 days do you really know what everyone is thinking? After studying for 3 days, do you really know anything about the subject. Youre the one who said, Just because the mouth is opening and closing doesnt mean its a prayer book. Take the cotton out of your ears and stuff it into your mouth for a while. Learn. Then, speak from a base of facts, not from supposition.

Second, your comments are just a statement. You offer no proof other than that no one beat your fathers door down, and that your father -- who admittedly hasnt tried Y2K remediation -- doesn t think the COBOL side of the problem would be too bad. These are opinions. Those who predict problems offer substantial evidence that refute these opinions.

Let's wait until September or October and then if there is some companies who say they won't be compliant, ask them what are the consequences if they don't? After all we still have a year before the next new years and if we start going into a tizzy now then the only ripple effect that we will have to deal with is the ripple effect from 200 million scared people who have started the largest. most dangerous game of gossip yet played.

This statement indicates total lack of knowledge of the real problems involved.

First, even in September or October companies might want to protect their stock price and not tell the truth about their progress. Or do you really believe that everything a company says is the whole, unvarnished truth?

Do you really suppose that asking companies what the consequence of their failure, 2 months before they fail, will have any value? Were supposed to ask the companies the consequences of their failure? LOL.

If there will be failures (there will) how do you propose the entire nation will be able to react in 2 months to prepare? The name of the game is contingency planning........planning to deal with the most likely problems that we are likely to face........potential power outages, potential water supply disruptions, potential food shortages, all induced by an infrastructure that relies heavily on embedded systems that are suceptible to failure.

It takes time to make preparations. Right now the supply chain is being heavily stressed -- there are shortages of some items that may be needed because these are not everyday items. Are you really proposing that we wait until October to begin to prepare? When FEMA and the Red Cross are urging preparation now?

 After all we still have a year before the next new years........

And after all, a lot of companies have been working on the problem for years. And, many on this forum have been preparing for over a year. Were supposed to get it done in two months -- because you dont understand the problem?

My suggestion is that you spend the next year studying the problem and come back and report to us next year at this time. Your post is laughable and sophomoric.

Yes, there is going to be some really hard core issues when it comes to the rest of the third world nations who can't make a certain part and then we can't get our toasters or new VCR's for a few weeks.

And, what if those parts that we cant get are ball bearings needed for production in our own plants or for replacement of worn out parts in front line equipment?

This isn't going to be as bad as everyone might be thinking.

First, after studying the subject for 3 days do you really know what everyone is thinking? After studying for 3 days, do you really know anything about the subject. Youre the one who said, Just because the mouth is opening and closing doesnt mean its a prayer book. Take the cotton out of your ears and stuff it into your mouth for a while. Learn. Then, speak from a base of facts, not from supposition.

Second, your comments are just a statement. You offer no proof other than that no one beat your fathers door down, and that your father -- who admittedly hasnt tried Y2K remediation -- doesn t think the COBOL side of the problem would be too bad. These are opinions. Those who predict problems offer substantial evidence that refute these opinions.

Let's wait until September or October and then if there is some companies who say they won't be compliant, ask them what are the consequences if they don't? After all we still have a year before the next new years and if we start going into a tizzy now then the only ripple effect that we will have to deal with is the ripple effect from 200 million scared people who have started the largest. most dangerous game of gossip yet played.

This statement indicates total lack of knowledge of the real problems involved.

First, even in September or October companies might want to protect their stock price and not tell the truth about their progress. Or do you really believe that everything a company says is the whole, unvarnished truth?

Do you really suppose that asking companies what the consequence of their failure, 2 months before they fail, will have any value? Were supposed to ask the companies the consequences of their failure? LOL.

If there will be failures (there will) how do you propose the entire nation will be able to react in 2 months to prepare? The name of the game is contingency planning........planning to deal with the most likely problems that we are likely to face........potential power outages, potential water supply disruptions, potential food shortages, all induced by an infrastructure that relies heavily on embedded systems that are suceptible to failure.

It takes time to make preparations. Right now the supply chain is being heavily stressed -- there are shortages of some items that may be needed because these are not everyday items. Are you really proposing that we wait until October to begin to prepare? When FEMA and the Red Cross are urging preparation now?

 After all we still have a year before the next new years........

And after all, a lot of companies have been working on the problem for years. And, many on this forum have been preparing for over a year. Were supposed to get it done in two months -- because you dont understand the problem?

My suggestion is that you spend the next year studying the problem and come back and report to us next year at this time. Your post is laughable and sophomoric.

-- prepped (prepared@forproblems.com), January 14, 1999.

Agreeing with Adam. Good point! My dad's the same way. 30+ years in COBOL programming and analysis. I've got over 20 under my belt. Systems are being fixed everyday. Widespread panic about Y2K will be our downfall (if anything) but certainly not Y2K itself. Childrens' frozen bodies lying in ditches?!?!?! Some of yall read WAAAYYY too much fiction and could use professional counseling!! Get help QUICK before it's too late.......PLEASE!!!

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), January 14, 1999.

Adam, you'll find lots of people on this forum who don't agree with you. I happen to agree with you. Most of the people posting here believe TEOTWAWKI just because things are interconnected. They cite URLs as evidence. LOL The web is full of misinformation; any body can post any garbage and these people take it as the TRUTH. But most of those people have no real life experiences with computers. All they know is the one sitting in front of them. Forget Gary, he's a flake that's been preaching the end of the world for decades now. What he says can't be believed. Ed Yourdon knows computers and could be a credible source but IMO he's gone off the deep end. Panic will cause the failures that most of these people are talking about, not Y2K. My crystal ball is just as good as yours.

Troll Maria

-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), January 14, 1999.

Adam, As you know from my thread on the Venezuelan oil refineries, I am a layman and a skeptic. Still, I'm going to lay up some supplies. I'd be interested in the details of your father's explanation, but his reassurances about the simplicity of the problem contrast starkly with the Gartner Groups estimate of $1 to 3 trillion repair bill. Extracting a trillion from big business is an unimaginable feat which will stand proud as long as history exists. I have trouble being sanguine about any problem with such a price.

-- Puddintame (forgot@where.com), January 14, 1999.

I have been reviewing every fact that I could on this issue. I have read tens of thousands of pages of documents/reports/testimonies/articles/books from CREDIBLE sources. Not from wackos. Not from persons selling Y2K materials/services of any kind. Not from people who want/expect the world as we know it to end. Not from religious extremists. I carefully sifted through what I found and weighed the motives, credibility, expertise, political, world and religious views, and state and soundness of mind of those whose words I read.

When I started researching this I did so in the hopes of being able to tell MY father (who was constantly going on and on about how bad Y2K might be) to "CHILL OUT" I must admit it, I WAS WRONG. The best info I could gather lead me to conclude that there is a distinct possibility if not a probability that Y2K will cause major disruptions in this and other countries.

You are entitled to your opinion on this issue. However, I view your statements above to be insulting. I for one am attempting to get any credible data that I can find on this issue. I would love to be able to say with honesty that things are looking good. If you have the data to back up your suggestions, by all means, lay it on me. Otherwise.....

-- gossip (conibear@gateway.net), January 14, 1999.

When Clinton held his pre-inaugural economic conference, a woman (whose name I can't remember, wish I could) spoke of America's "undeveloped sense of consequence." Great phrase. Adam, didja hear about the Asian financial crisis? Didja hear the news about Brazil yesterday? Brazil has been begging for help from the US and the IMF since at least September, and the situation had to come to critical mass before anyone took any notice. Iraq had to invade Kuwait before anybody did anything (and it took six months to get ready for THAT). It's the way things are done in the US--wait till it goes up, then fix it. Y2K won't be any different.

So, anyway, this economic problem in Brazil means that lots of banks in the US and (especially) Europe are not going to be repaid for the loans they made to the Brazilian government. That means these banks won't have that money to loan out--like, for Y2K remediation maybe? Is that why nobody called your dad, no money available? Gosh, I hope your dad's IRA account isn't invested in any Brazilian companies shored up by the Brazilian government. For every action, there really IS a reaction--think ripples, dominoes, embedded chips. Your dad DID explain to you about embedded chips, didn't he?

As for all these preps, we're not buying anything we won't be able to use, even if by some miracle Y2K is only a polite burp. The worst that can happen is that we'll be eating several month's worth of food bought at 1998 prices, and saving the money to buy something really neat, and will endure hurricanes, ice storms and economic downturns with far more security and comfort than most. My husband's a consultant too and he does all those alphabet soup languages; he was in the Navy as well, flying multi-million dollar computers. He's a very low-key, laid-back, quiet kind of guy, very well-read, and when he says he's worried about something, I get VERY worried. He's worried about Y2K, Adam, based on what he's seen at the state agency he's currently helping and his extensive knowledge of current affairs. You and your dad are fully entitled to your opinions, just as we're fully entitled to ours. We're not better or worse than you, just different.

-- anon (anon@spamproblems.com), January 14, 1999.

Troll Maria - You're brilliant! Great minds think alike. I've said the same before about most of these folks not involved in any type of Y2K project yet wannabe experts. Quite ammusing at times actually. I say we take a poll of this forum and find out who EXACTLY is involved in a Y2K project and who ain't. Any takers??

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), January 14, 1999.

Well I'd like to say on my own behalf that the three days i was refering to meant 72 HOURS of research, not three days of off and on tiddlywinking.

I don't have prrof of success of Y2K , just as everyone doesn't have proof of failure.

My father doesn't say that the budget estimates are wrong, but he does feel that they are and will be used wisely and when you think about it, 600 billion dollars put into the economy is still 600 billion dollars put into the economy. It will ahve a positive effect.

My mouth isn't flapping, I'm speaking from COBOL prgramming experiance myself. I don't need URL's to back up what is obviously logic.

-- Adam (Y2KSrvivor@aol.com), January 14, 1999.

Thank you, Adam, for sharing your opinions based on that three days of solid research. I'm glad that you don't believe it will be too a big problem. I mean that.

I think it would be great if you would just forget about this whole stupid thing. Don't worry about it, man, really. I'm sure you've got a nice life, and you should just get back to it. We squirrels will just keep stashing away our nuts, like the nuts that we are. Don't worry about taking cash out of the bank, or stocking up more than a few days worth of food. Really! Societies and civilizations just keep rolling along, never a problem, never more than a glitch, you know, like the Aztecs.

I find your confidence inspiring, and I hope that you can inspire lots of other people like yourself to agree to just forget about the whole thing. That way, when the Great Culling of the 21st Century happens, those of us who actually have a will to survive, will have a better chance of doing so.

It's been nice knowing ya!

-- a (b@c.def), January 14, 1999.

Since no one really knows (this is the ONE thing everyone agrees upon)it is all speculation. From the speculation we take a gamble, either prepare or not prepare. The rest is all talk, talk, talk.....

-- Linda A. (adahi@muhlon.com), January 14, 1999.

A b@c

Nuts? Your the one who said it not me man. I happen to already have an emergancy stock in case of problmes from natural disasters. I live in tornado alley. ( Hence... Y2KSrvivor )

But it has been nice knowing you

-- Adam (Y2KSrvivor@aol.com), January 14, 1999.

Pascal's Wager

-- Puddintame (still@cantremember.com), January 14, 1999.

Someone asked about this from a programmers perspective, so here goes:

I have been working on a Y2K project for almost one year. As a programmer for over two decades, I have known about the problem for almost all of my programming career. A year ago though, when asked to look into this "year 2000 thing" by my employer, I found this and other sites and for the first time realized the extent of the problem. I never knew about the connection of Y2K to our electricity, water, etc. I was astounded at it, and walked around in a daze for several weeks. (not much different from my normal state). As the time has passed from when I first "got it", I have become more concerned, not less.

When I think back to the Big Iron days, and look at what has happened since, and where we are now, I am not encouraged. So much is still the same. Sure, the technology has grown, and continues to grow, and at a frenetic pace. But projects are almost invariably late, still, even with reduced functionality. Good people remain hard to find, still, and harder to keep. Code still breaks. Systems still crash. User is still a four-letter word. Programmers still do stupid things like leave documentation for last, that is, when they bother doing it at all. Even when they do, it quickly becomes out of date due to the ever present requirements changes. In many cases, programmers have been asked to do Y2K in addition to whatever they were doing before, as a result of budgetary constraints. So they are doing their "regular" work, and are working longer hours to do Y2K. Many feel overloaded, and they are.

Regardless of if it is panic or Y2K itself, failures we will have. Prepare to the maximum extent that you reasonably can.

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), January 14, 1999.

I am glad your dad, the COBAL expert, thinks everything is going to be fine. I'll even except that at face value just as I have the testimony of the dozen plus COBAL people I have spoken to who dissagree with your dad.

Can your dad help us out with info about the OTHER 400+ languages that are effected by Y2K problems? I am especially worried about the stuff the process control people write in. What those guys report is downright scary.

And the National guard, and the RCMP, those people scare me too. Buncha nuts they are, warning people to expect 'serious disruptions'.

The one and only thing that is absolutly 100% sure about the situation is we will all find out the truth in a little over 1 year.

Happy daze!

Art

-- Art Welling (artw@lancnews.infi.net), January 14, 1999.

Hey Adam,

Just remember that the information stream gets corrupted going the other way:

Geek to Supervisor -- I just don't see how we're going to finish this project on time. I can probably have the first pass of the code remediation done around Oct of 99, but that doesn't leave much time for testing the complete, integrated system. And I can't guarantee that I won't miss anything. Of course, that's just the critical systems; the rest will have to wait. We should have started working on this in 1996 instead of just reading about it in the industry rags.

Supervisor to Manager -- We're on track to complete the code remediation on our mission critical systems. There may be a few glitches but nothing we can't handle in short order. Then we can tackle the secondary systems. You remember that article that you read about this in 1996? We probably should have started then, huh?

Manager to V.P. -- Our Y2K preparations are coming along fine. Hey, we've known about this since 1996.

V.P. to PR flak -- Take care of this Y2K thing with the media, will you? The IT folks say it's no problem. They've been working on it since 1996.

P.R. to the public -- The Bizmo Company has been working on its Year 2000 compliance since 1996. We are making excellent progress and are on track to have our internal systems Y2K ready well before the turn of the century.

-- Franklin Journier (ready4y2k@yahoo.com), January 14, 1999.

Deano, Troll Maria and Adam,

First of all I respect your opinion and you make some good points with the knowledge and personal experience that *you* come from. Everyone is entitled to their opinion. *You* believe Y2K will not be a problem, it's just a bunch of people trying to extort money out of the clueless, etc...

That is fine. That is your *opinion*! And *opinions* are like a$$holes, everyone has one... (This is not meant as an insult, just a fact...) We all like to think that *we* are right. That *we* have all the answers or that *our* opinion counts. Well it does on only one level - Your own!!! Everyone else has to make their own decisions.

If you think that Y2K will not be a problem, why do you read this forum...? Why do you continue to try to *force* your opinion on others...? (This one actually is for most of the other Troll's here and not nessecarily for you). Y2k will not be a problem.. Fine... It won't be... Don't sweat it then.. Go catch a movie... Go on living as you have been... And have a wonderful time doing it. Enjoy life... I wish you all the best from the bottom of *my* heart. Watch beautiful sunsets, travel around the world... BUT live your life meaningful and fulfilled.

If *YOU* are right, I will have some extra food around that I can use, be able to respond to an emergency much better (It does get extremly cold around here and if a storm knocks the power out I will be ready.) and have not lost much except maybe some wasted time reading reports on the internet.

If *I* am right, you will try to do find out what and where to get food and how to survive. While I am planting a garden, read Shakespeare, eat another piece of chicken and have an otherwise outstanding day (You all know that's wrong.. I would be miserable and try to help others as much as I could)

So, it just depends on *your* opinion. If you are an adult you can make your own decision. YOU can deceide on how to life your life... What to do... When... Where ... How...

Now, why do I think Y2K will be bad...? What is my experience..? Not much actually, I work as a Networking Consultant for a consulting firm. Oh, we also build Databases so a major gov agency can go and assess their Y2K problems. (yes, that's right. This agency is just now assessing their problems, throwing lot's of manpower at it and giving it great priority. They have a deadline of July first. Finish assessment, remidiation and testing.) Having seen what is going on with this agency and being a acquaintence of the individual that leads this project and getting even more info during lunches with him, *I* have decided to take precautions. The things I hear make my hair stand up. They scare me to death and I pray they are not true. Again *I* have decided to take precautions. Serious precautions.

Yes, I know I am not giving the name of the agency or any other info *but* I do like *my* job enough to stay in it for a little while longer. There are people that *rely* on me bringing home a salary. If this sounds selfish so be it. And in a time where it is so easy to discredit someone I am NOT going to make waves.

People in power are afraid of a self fulfilling prophecy. So am I. Either way I win... I am not much of a gambler. I buy house insurance in case it burns down or floods. I buy car insurance in case of an accident. Do I plan for these things to happen..? Are they likely...? Not really. I am a safe and responsible driver and take care of the house. Why do I then spent *thousands* of dollars on them...? What is an extra couple thousand bucks for my *peace* of mind...?

What happens with brazils telecommunication system they just bought from At&T that was second hand...? How will you place a call...? How will this affect our economy..? Russia plans on fix on failure... Germany is just now figuring out that it *could* be a problem... What will happen if we can't buy parts from there...? The shipping industry has not addressed their problems for the most part... Did you know that 95% of all goods come by ship to the U.S...?

Enough of *my* opinions... Like I said... they are like a$$holes... everyone got one... So, laugh at me... ridicule me.. make fun of me and my *warped* logic... You are welcome too... It makes me *feel* better to prepare... (And how much do americans spent on therapists to make them *feel* better)...

Have a great day... And I hope *YOU* are right... STFrancis

-- STFrancis (STFrancis@heaven.com), January 14, 1999.

"Well I'd like to say on my own behalf that the three days i was refering to meant 72 HOURS of research, not three days of off and on tiddlywinking. "

Oh! Well hell, why didn't you say so! Tiddlywinking...that must be what Gary North, Paul Milne, Cory Hamasaki, Rick Cowles, Jim Lord, Ed Yourdon, Doug Carmicheal, Ivan Mingham, JoAnne Slaven, and most of us on this forum have been farting around doing. No wonder we're clueless!

" I don't have prrof of success of Y2K , just as everyone doesn't have proof of failure. "

Yes, that sounds like a good reason not to prepare. LOL

" My father doesn't say that the budget estimates are wrong, but he does feel that they are and will be used wisely and when you think about it, 600 billion dollars put into the economy is still 600 billion dollars put into the economy. It will ahve a positive effect. "

You just convinced me that your father is senile.

" My mouth isn't flapping, I'm speaking from COBOL prgramming experiance myself. I don't need URL's to back up what is obviously logic."

You just convinced me that you are a fool and that FACTS cannot compete with your defective "logic", which you do not share with us for obvious fear of ridicule and being proven wrong.

And for your information, I am a software engineer with y2k remediation experience.

-- a (a@a.a), January 14, 1999.

Adam, little one, you havent finished your homework ... D minus.

Your Dad didnt teach you to think critically or intelligently on your own ... F.

Hint: Study the way the CIA does (they wrote the book):

"We teach a concept called open source and public domain intelligence -- that is, taking what is in the public domain and creating new knowledge by analysis and interpretation," he said. "If you spend 20 percent of your intelligence budget on open source intelligence you'll be able to answer 70 percent of the boss's questions."

Diane, (a wavering 5 on the Y2K scale)

Information Navigator

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), January 14, 1999.

nobody remembers their prochecies... but if they are right, then they are considered genius. It's a game folks.

Formula to be known as a stock market genius: pick 1024 names at random. Send 512 (one half of them) a prediction that a given stock will rise in a certain time. Send the other half a prediction that it will fall. Wait. Cull names from wrong prediction from your list. Of the 512 who got 'correct' predictions, send 256 (one half) of them an up predition, the other half a down prediction. Wait, cull, repeat, etc. When pool is down to 16 people, they will all regard you as an infallible genuis. Recommend they sign over all their worldly goods to you, buy 5000 acres in Australian outback, abscond thereto, and wait out y2k in peace, comfort, and style.

-- Blue Himalayan (bh@k2.y), January 14, 1999.

Geez, Diane, I guess that's why the CIA did such a great job predicting the Indian nuke test, the fall of Ceaucescu, etc.

-- Blue Himalayan (bh@k2.y), January 14, 1999.

Adam,

Knowledge and/or expertise in COBOL in no way equates to posession of an understanding of the Y2K situation.

That's exactly like saying that because my father is an expert firefighter and has 30+ years of experience that he has current and accurate knowledge and understanding of every currently burning fire on the planet!

You need to rethink your position and gather a bit more information before you bet your life on it.

I helped build some of the hardware that your father probably learned to program on. In the course of my life I have been responsible for the maintenance and repair of big iron, mid-range machines and PCs. I have been responsible for the maintenance and repair of operating systems and application programs and have written (to the extent required by the maintenance function) software. I have designed and constructed, with my own hands, "embedded systems" and have written firmware for IBM and IBM compatible mainframes. I have done these things in places of business that had only a single keypunch machine and I have done these things in CIA computer rooms in Langley, Virginia. I have been in computer rooms that required a retinal scan prerequisite to entry and I have been in places that required me to have two armed escorts. I have done these things on every continent of this planet except Antartica and they have exposed me to all levels of commerce and government in western civilization.

As a result, I have an excellent understanding not only that everything IS interconnected, but how wide the data paths are, how fast they are driven, who pays for them, how much they cost, etc.

I know from first hand experience that managers are required by the position requirements to LIE when required to accomplish the primary function of a corporation which is to produce a dividend for the stockholders.

You might think that with all that said, that I was going to tell you how bad things are and that we are doomed, but I'm going to disappoint you if that is so.

The simple truth is that anyone who tells you what is going to happen in the future, even 5 minutes hence, is guessing. NO ONE knows for certain.

I would suggest that the wider your perspective is the more likely that your guesses will turn out to be close to the eventual reality.

FWIW, my guesses are in the direction of a major problem throughout western civilization, but they're only guesses after all.

Good luck.

-- Hardliner (searcher@internet.com), January 14, 1999.

"Cobol and Y2K" as of noon January 15th, 1999.

I wonder what happens if you just search on Y2K?

-- Critt Jarvis (Wilmington, NC) (critt@critt.com), January 14, 1999.

Blue Himalayan, the ambassador to Romania at the incredible, wild time of the Dictator's fall was our patient. We spent several days talking about the whole thing, and he showed me all his photos, diary, and communications with Bush. The CIA *did* know beforehand but underestimated the timing and made the April gal the fall person. There were distinct similarities to the Iraq-Kuwait incident. This ambassador did a slendid job representing the USA and keeping relative peace while all hell was breaking loose. Then the earthquake shook things up ... quite a tale, all true, a modern gruesome Grim's draculic ogre story for our age.

Ashton & Leska in Cascadia, who got the full scoop from the real source

xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx

-- Leska (allaha@earthlink.net), January 14, 1999.

Hi Adam, I follow your logic but at a respectable diistance. As a father , a husband and a family member I have to make sure of my family's security - making sure there is food, water and shelter. If I stuck my head in the sand and told myself that there will be no problem then I deserve sand up my nose. The word is out reguardless of it being 19th or 20th generation. I owe it to my family to make sure we are ready for a disaster. You are trying to tell me that to wait and see. This waiting game that your suggesting could mean a life or death outcome. No thank you but I will contiue my quest. You remind me of one of those individuals that tailgate me when I am driving slow on slippery roads. Now if I speed up to accommodate them and loose my car in the ditch I am sure they will stop and have me towed out - NOT! I simply push up my rear view mirror and they don't exist. Adam - my mirror is up to you!

-- Duane (Duane24062@aol.com), January 14, 1999.

This survey was in the paper today. http://www.jsonline.com/bym/tech/0114survey.asp

By the sound of this survey--Adams dad has a job waiting for him in Georgia.

-- maji (abc@prepared.com), January 14, 1999.

Hey, we never said Y2K (if it is represented by a single COBOL re-programming effort in a single company running with regular workers in a long enough time frame with enough budget and enough time left to test everything and refix what broke while all the regular support services (lights, power, cooling, HVAC, networks, other offices and programmers) - is hard to fix.

Your dad is absolutely right - but only under those exact circumstances of power, light, services, and funding with enough time to find all the problems.

What you (and your father) are failing to see is the interrelated systemic failures that will absolutely and flatout completely prevent you from doing something - like eating, heating your house, or getting water. Much less re-programming a company's inventory system.

Focus on power as a symptom, although the probable failures are multiple and simultaneous in EVERY distributed system to your house, business, food store, gas station, sewer plant, water plant, telephone switchroom, insurance carier, bank (none here have backup power), and police station.

For example - if there is no power, you - and nobody else in your neighborhood, regardless of what they may think or plan or want to do - nobody can "pump" gas from the nearby gas station. You have 12 gallons of gas in your car - how will you get more? Go elsewhere? Okay - what about the other ten thousand people also "going (looking aimlessly) elsewhere" for the same gas? You have four-five days to find some. They may have only 1-2 hours before they are empty.

Same with food - stores now completely shutdown if there is no power. Some stores, if their employees come in at all, can do some sales with cash, maybe checks, from a register - but nothing else. And no store can get deliveries from a distribution center that is itself unlit (how canyou safely see what your are doing?) and has no power to recharge its forklift trucks. Much less track what merchandise is going to what merchant in what truck at what time.

Doesn't matter? "Do it anyway? It's an emergency!" How will the company stay in business if it can't track sales, receipts, salaries, dispensing, and shipping?

You gonna nationalize it? Declare martial law and confescate ??? what? Rice? Water? Beans? Just how the H**L can the federal goverment do anything to get power back? And without power, you don't have banks, water, financial services, or insurance companies. Or a government to write welfare checks, or welfare credit cards, or anything else.

If this is a "bump" in the road, how much of a "bump" is it if there are widespread simultaneous power outages? 3 days lost production is 1% national productivity - 1 week is arecession - just from lost workdays. And no body else - regardless of whether they want to or not, regardless of whether their boss or CEO or stockholder can help the worker recover.

And until power, gas, heating, and water - and food, and firefighting, and gasoline, and transportation and shipping, and thouands of other services are recovered, the worker still isn't productive - if he or she can do anything at all.

You're hoping nothing goes wrong by noting nothing has gone wrong yet - without showing me that you've mentally even "walked through" one credible systemic (system in trouble -> system in trouble -> system in trouble -> system in trouble -> system in trouble scenario.

One power plant has completed enough repairs to begin testing an accelerated "clock" time in the 2000 year. No distribution system has - anywhere. Do you really think that several hundred thousand distribution systems - all relying on services from the others - will continue running without simultaneous irritating, minor, major, catastrophic failures?

Your dad's a programmer. Tell him to write a perfect, error-free program of at least 100,000 lines of coding (and completely documented user manual), then give it to me. Without testing.

I'll try to run it. Without power.

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), January 14, 1999.

lol... three days of research? Try months, years... sheesh...

y2k is a conspiracy of gossip now... maybe it'll make the E channel.

Mike ======================================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), January 14, 1999.

Adam, Dean,...

Everyone of us bases his/her own level of preparedness on his/her interpetation of the facts, stories, and yes, even rumours. This is true in everything you do in life.

I just hope for your sakes, that you are right (based, of course on your own conclusions). Just remember that whatever you decide to do, you will be betting your way of life and even your life and those of your family on this.

I've drawn my own conclusion and firmly believe that my family is important enough for me to buy a little "insurance". So what if I don't use some of what I purchase - this happens to me all the time with my auto insurance, homeowner's policy, etc... But IF something happens to me, I'M COVERED. That's the main thing. That's what is important.

Good Luck!

-- Russell

-- Russell (Oh Boy@y2k.com), January 14, 1999.

"Okay, now that I've done about three solid days worth of research and all of it was put to rest by thirty minutes of explanation from my father who has been in the COBOL game since 1970 I can almost certaintly say that set aside the few minor disruptions that are easily fixable the only thing to worry about is Public hysteria."

Like father like son. Simpletons beget simpletons.

-- . (.@...), January 14, 1999.

Adam,

Here's another mainframe COBOL programmer - 14 years into it. And an IT lead for a Y2K project.

You asked for my opinion (note: opinion), so here it is:

In the U.S. a rather small percentage of computer based systems will fail. Plus, a larger percentage of systems will not fail but will pass dirty data on to other systems, which will cause them to fail or miscalculate. Plus a smaller percentage of embedded chips will fail (that will have much consequence). Plus there will be some public hysteria (you're correct, there). Plus some other countries such as South America (esp. Brazil, the 8th largest economy in the world), Japan (yes, Japan), and former Soviet bloc countries will not fare as well as us (you and your dad are wrong on this one). Add all that up and what do you get?

Well, what do you get, Adam? Don't know? Neither does anyone else. But, if you think it through logically (you like logic, right?), and factor in the high degree of interdependency and just-in-time economies, the POTENTIAL for severe problems looks rather high.

What you do with that is up to you. But, ultimately all you (and Dad) are doing is betting your lives that you're right and others are wrong. You're not the first (nor the last) - you're also not the wisest.

Take care my friend...

COBOLMAN

-- COBOLMAN (whos@asking.com), January 14, 1999.

I've never said I didn't think there would be ANY problems. I think there will be a few. My problem with this was the comment about 'frozen childrens' bodies lying in a roadside ditch' and a few other times I've seen "millions will die'. And even more - 'if they come on my porch, I'm blowin'em away'. To me - this shit is insane! We're supposed to be human beings for Christ's sake, not friggin animals!! Makes me sick to my stomach everytime I read about some bozo buying guns and ammo. Like I said earlier - way too much fiction in the wrong hands can be very dangerous! Some folks (apparently) have a very hard time distinguishing between reality and some sick fantasy. Nuff said!

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), January 14, 1999.

Adam I once knew a guy that had 20+ years on the job,

and you know what ? He didnt know shit about his work !

Experience does not = knowledge :o(

-- Mike (mickle2@aol.com), January 14, 1999.

I find it quite astonishing that anyone who does not expect TEOTWAWKI is at once considered a pollyanna or an idiot. Personally, I expect some problems of greater or lessor degree, and your personal problems will depend largely on where you live and other factors ie. where you bank, who you work for etc.

Not everyone is lying or being misled about Y2K problems. The embedded controller problem has been closely examined by now - unless you want to call all the engineers on several big projects flat out liars they are finding a much smaller problem than at first projected.

It is really time to move past panic and rumour - and start basing your expectations of Y2K on fact, not someone's opinion, and esp. not on old data from 1997 or early 1998.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), January 14, 1999.

Right on Deano!

We're Human Beings and we need to learn the difference between reality and sick fantasy! Like those Jews in the ovens at Dachau! Sick Fantasy! 50,000 dead in a single battle in the Civil War. Impossible! Tutsis and Hutus slaughtering each other by the hundreds of thousands. Won't happen here! People tied up, drugged and thrown out of airplanes into the ocean during the "Dirty Little War." Good thing that was only SOUTH America! Stalinist Purges! DAMN COMMIES! Hiroshima and Nagasaki! We did that to SAVE lives!

You get the picture. Wake up and smell the blood.

-- a (b@c.def), January 14, 1999.

I've seen a number of repies that state "if it's not a problem and I've prepared, then no big deal... if it is a problem and I haven't prepared, then ... I'd rather prepare myself for the proability" I'm paraphrasing here. Well,let's take that thinking a little further. OK you're prepared. Now try to imagine 250 million people conducting the same kinds of preparation. I've seen reports of shortages now of certain kinds of Y2K survival "kits". What happens when the rest of the country tries to buy these items? Maybe some panic maybe not. Now let's further assume that everyone gets prepared and TEOTWAWKI arrives. Do you really think that your meager preparations will "keep" you? If all businesses fail including power, banks, grocery stores, then all the preparations you've made will eventually run out. You're now in the same boat as the non-preparer types. What do you do? Maybe you start roaming and scavinging. Maybe you start killing. I believe in ingenuity and the smart ones will be able to do things with what they have. I also fear the guys with guns and no brains. For when their supplies do run out, they will start looking for their next victim.

Troll Maria

-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), January 14, 1999.

T. Maria,

That's why YOU should be certain to include a few cyanide capsules in with your preps. So that those of us who intend on surviving will not have to deal with wishy-washers like you, no matter what history deals us next.

-- a (b@c.def), January 14, 1999.

Hey abcdef dude - Very good, that stuff did actually happen. Glad to see you paid attention in history class. Keyword 'HISTORY'. That stuff happened a long, long time ago in a galaxy far, far away. One thing that makes us different than most animals is we learn from our mistakes. Took us a while to catch on to Y2K, but we're fixing it. We broke it, we can fix it. Some of yall seem to think that our 'system' was left to us by some ancient alien civilization and we don't have a clue how it works. America (at least the part I was born and raised in) is not made up of a bunch of quitters/losers. If it were we'd be speaking German or Japanese now. Thank God there are still some educated/hard working individuals out there taking care of it instead of heading for the hills screaming "We're all doomed!". These are the type folks that will cause our downfall.

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), January 14, 1999.

Ancient history?!!?!??! Deano what galaxy far, far away do you live in? People are slaughtering each other daily on this planet. Right now, man! What have they learned? I don't get you at all.

Troll Maria -- This is a ridiculous argument. Let's play this out. We both agree that if it's a bump in the road then I'm really not worse off than you. But what if TEOTWAWKI happens. Your preparation amounts to...nothing. Mine amounts to living on 5.5 acres of productive land, wood heat and a three year supply of wood (enough to share with my neighbors too), a year's worth of food (and enough to share with my neighbors too), chickens, goats, rabbits, geese, and non-hybrid seeds to get more food (and enough to share with my neighbors too), a clean source of water that doesn't need electricity to get at (and enough to share with my neighbors too). Well yeah, I guess you're right -- we are in the same boat if TSHTF. I guess I just wasted my time and money. Wish I would have talked to you first.

-- Franklin Journier (ready4y2k@yahoo.com), January 14, 1999.

"One thing that makes us different than most animals is we learn from our mistakes. Took us a while to catch on to Y2K, but we're fixing it."

This is the difference between an optimist (Deano) and a realist (me). Humans DON'T ALWAYS learn from their mistakes. They become complacent for whatever reasons and repeat history. Why can't one nation learn from the mistakes of others? As a mass, humans repeat same mistakes a lot more than as individuals, and that's the crux of the problem. As for Y2K, much of the "fixing" work right now is exactly repeating the SAME mistake; windowing.

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), January 14, 1999.

Troll Maria,

It sounds like you stopped thinking when you figured out that you couldn't stash enough supplies to "keep" yourself forever.

The insurance analogy is a sound one. Unless you've been to the future and know that Y2K is a non-event, you're betting your life based on your, or more likely someone else's, guess about what is going to happen. I am on record in this forum as being a "stakes" gambler and not an "odds" gambler. It was, however, the last time I looked a somewhat "free" country (I'm assuming, based on your previous postings, that you're in the USA) and you're certainly at liberty to choose your own gambling criteria. What the situation will not allow you to do is abstain from the betting.

As to "running out" of my "supplies", I am as aware as you that they will not last forever. I never intended that they should. The maintenance of my current life-style looks to be a very poor bet by any criteria. For me, they are insurance against the worst possible case, the complete breakdown of society. As stated ad nauseaum, I can always do other things with them if the worst case does not come to pass. In the event that it does, however, they will (and have been intended to from the first) hopefully allow me to survive the transition from my current life-style to whatever may come next and also hopefully, ease that transition and make it less traumatic.

I am also concerned about, "guys with guns and no brains". I would suggest that you ask yourself whether you would rather face them with or without a gun of your own. Again, if that situation obtains, you will have some choices, but one of them will not be to abstain.

-- Hardliner (searcher@internet.com), January 14, 1999.

The facts remain unchallengable:

1. The world began fixing this too late to be compliant, even with the mission-critical systems that are only about 40% of all total systems.

2. We don't know how serious the consequences of that will be. It could range from minor to catastrophic.

3. We will find out the consequences for a certainty sometime between December 99 and December 2000.

4. Since the consequences can't be predicted, there can't be such a thing as "too much" preparation, though each individual must make their own judgment on what is appropriate.

5. While preparations won't save anyone per se in a worst-case result, they are the best way to help ourselves and others that we have.

Because facts 1. and 2. are unchallengeable, but you claim that fact 2. is known (minor disruptions) rather than unknowable at this stage, you and your father are fools.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), January 14, 1999.

And Deano, isn't putting all your assets/eggs in the same basket a mistake we've learned from history? Well we have, and in a big way. We've put our very existance (as a mass and as individuals)in the technology basket.

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), January 14, 1999.

Deano, my naive friend,

you do not seem to understand that there are people on this planet, RIGHT NOW, who would gladly strap a bomb to their chest and commit suicide AS LONG AS THEY TAKE YOU WITH THEM. In the name of glory for their "God".

you do not seem to understand that moderate disruptions caused by Y2K make the likelihood of that occuring GREATER.

This is just an example. And it's something that I'm frankly not the least bit concerned about.

you also do not seem to understand that YOU are currently living in history. Right now! History is not a stagnant thing. It flows, and it happens to us. Not just somebody else. We're all a part of it.Like it or not. I've come to the conclusion that the next period of history looks like a doozie, for a variety of reasons, and I intend to get through it.

And you?

-- a (b@c.def), January 14, 1999.

Adam,

I'm glad you posted today because I believe it brings some good issues to the forefront.

First, it is important for all of us to understand the backgrounds of the people responding and/or lurking on this site. The amount of gray matter tossing around this topic seems to be substantial. I am not a programmer or a computer expert by any stretch (I think I may be able to draw a line using a BASIC program, though :)). I am, however, a small business owner who is receiving patches from my software companies (Microsoft is a biggie; gotta love those cd-roms!) almost weekly at this point. They see a big problem.

Second, I am not a techie, as I said, I am a lawyer. I have been bombarded by this issue for the past year and a half through association magazines and trial updates. Failures are occuring, people are getting hurt, though it's mostly businesses at this point. That's what damages are all about. Cases are currently getting dismissed when based on a theoretical injury to occur in 2000 because they are not timely, no injury has occured, but some cases are timely and are coming to verdict/settlement. The real prep is for 2000; my industry anticipates major problems, especially in health care. If medical devices are failing, people will be seriously injured or die.

Third, my dh is the techie of the family, and works in the telecommunications industry. He has inside information on expected failures across the country; the reports we hear at the dinner table are hair-raising. His company has a 28 member team working on y2k. They do not expect a dial tone for much of the country in 2000. Oh, and stay out of elevators, too.

My dad's an expert on lots of stuff and I love him dearly, as I'm sure you feel about yours. But at least check out some of this a little further before discounting it as all balderdash because of your dad's experience. Read some more of Sen. Bob Bennett's concerns, read Ed Yardeni's book (known as an optimist). then go out and buy another bag of rice with the knowledge that you'll donate it to a food bank if everything is "business as usual" in 2000.

As for Nikolai and his concerns, did anyone catch the article about the American forensics specialist who is helping efforts in excavating one of the mass graves in Bosnia? As an American, the horrible cruelty and slaughter were hard for her to grasp. Those people had malls, nintendo, and suburbs, too, folks. You don't know much about history, or current events for that matter, if you don't think it can happen here.

Jeannie

-- jhollander (hollander@ij.net), January 14, 1999.

Franklin - Let's see......WWII, the Civil War, Stalin.....yep, learned about all that shit in 3rd grade. HISTORY! I don't know what part of this world you live in, but my little corner ain't going around killing everyone. There's ALWAYS been fighting/wars/hunger/riots/whatever going on. Doomers have ALWAYS been saying SOMETHING was going to be the end of us. Know what professor?? We're all still here and I, for one, am doing quite well. Some little fixable (and it most certainly is fixable) computer bug ain't gonna be it. I can't wait to see what the next opium induced prohet with a bunch of upside down 9's up his ass is gonna predict next!! Should prove entertaining........once again.

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), January 14, 1999.

Jeannie: an interesting post. That's the silver lining of threads like this, lurkers that would not post unless pushed to the edge by idiots like Adam and his old man.

Deano: You are showing your ignorance. You're going to feel pretty stupid if and when you wise up.

-- a (a@a.a), January 14, 1999.

Jeanie, your husband probably works at one of the Local carriers. He can't work at AT&T or MCI because their Y2K bugets are up around $300 million and 28 programmers would be paid big bucks. There are 1100 LECs around and I expect that nearly half of them will fail. These are the "baby" LECs who admittedly are not doing very much about the Y2K problem. They are small and if they do fail the impact will not be felt as much as some of you doomers think. It just means bigger business for the larger LECs that do survive. I work for one of the biggies. And I can assure you that our conversion effort is on track. How do I know? I am the project manager for one of six groups working on the problem. One group is completely finished with its conversion and test (future date testing). A few problems were uncovered but easily fixed. Now they are moving into integration testing. Our group will be done and move into integration testing in May. Look at the thread on the redundancy of telecommunications. Also look up some other threads on satellites to find some additional information. IMO, communications will stay up. There will be some isolated problems but nothing that can't be fixed within a couple of days at the outside. Sorry for any inconvenience. Talk to your LEC about getting dial tone.

Troll Maria

-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), January 14, 1999.

The code is broken. Read Cory amoung others. Adam, I am very glad that you know what will happen tomorrow. Got any stock tips?

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), January 14, 1999.

abcdef - 2 things - #1 we ain't friends and #2 naive (??) you're a hoot man!! Sure there are fanatics in this world, always has been always will be. I've seen evidence of that right here on this forum. And each comment I see about the end of the world only confirms it. And you wonder what I should be afraid of? Surely not some freak 15,000 miles away with some C2 strapped to his chest. I could care less about him. What freaks me out are the folks over here that are ARMING themselves because of a computer glitch that's getting fixed as we speak. THESE are the fanatics that worry me more than anything.

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), January 14, 1999.

Agree with Troll Maria bout comm IN THE US (see my post on Davis comm thread for more) but it doesn't change anything with respect to the idiocy of the opening post on this thread.

Awesome that Troll's group is doing their job. So are many others. Of course! There is a reason we are spending XXXB bucks on this and it will make a difference.

Unfortunately, it doesn't change today's facts at all.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), January 14, 1999.

Everyone:

Please do not make any further attempts to change "Deano's" mind.

Thank you,

E.

-- E. Coli (nunayo@beeswax.com), January 14, 1999.

Adam's take (to coin a phrase...!) on this is much the same as my wife's, last summer, when I first showed her some of the things I was finding on the possible consequences of the Y2K problem. She said, "Nonsense. They'll fix it. They always have. They can't afford not to."

I saw nothing then, and I've seen nothing since, that persuades me that everything will be fixed, or that only insignificant problems will remain. And a lot that suggest just the opposite.

BTW she doesn't say that any more.

Ashton & Leska-- you're probably referring to April Glaspie, the American ambassador to Iraq in 1990. See this page for an account of events (scroll down in the text to the first instance of "April Glaspie").

Deano -- " One thing that makes us different than most animals is we learn from our mistakes."

Some do. Some don't. Read European history. Read Russian history. Read African history. Read the papers. Watch CNN. Read about Bill Clinton. Read about Henry Hyde. Search the web on "Srebrenica".

I really appreciate the thoughtful responses here from those with hands-on IT experience in Y2K remediation. For the record, let it be known that I am not now, and never have beeninvolved with any IT project of any kind. (Not counting an occasional encounter with "A Fatal Exception Has Occurred" on my own PC.)

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), January 14, 1999.

Wow, what a fascinating thread. I couldn't put it down! Sometimes a thread like this comes along and BOOM! ignites like wildfire. Wish I'd gotten here earlier. Just to throw in my little US$.02...

Adam - your conclusions do not seem to be based on evidence, rather on speculation. There's a lot of reporting going on in this forum and other places, and that reporting generally seems to show that there will be a lot of disruptions. Beyond that, and to what degree is where the speculation comes in. I think for many of us it comes down to a simple case of "Better safe than sorry." We're not talking about toasters and VCRs here, where talking about electricity and money. And, of course, nobody knows. "Puddintame" mentioned Pascal's Wager.

Troll Maria said: " Adam, you'll find lots of people on this forum who don't agree with you. I happen to agree with you. Most of the people posting here believe TEOTWAWKI just because things are interconnected. They cite URLs as evidence. LOL The web is full of misinformation; any body can post any garbage and these people take it as the TRUTH. But most of those people have no real life experiences with computers."

I personally think this is a mischaracterization. I think most of the people posting here believe that we are in for major problems because there are ALREADY major problems in the world, and a breakdown of the information infrastructure will simply explode the powderkeg that is already too close to the fire. It's more than just computers. It's the entire makeup of society. The code is broken, but so are many of the assumptions under which we labor.

Of course, the WEB is full of misinformation. I don't know of any of the RESPONSIBLE reporters here, like Diane and Leska, who advocate anything less than getting as wide a picture as possible. Each little crumb is just that. A little crumb.

abcdef - "The Great Culling of the 21st Century?" Brrrrrr...

Jeannie - I do think it could happen here. There is a huge fundamentalist movement in this country, as in much of the world, and it's salivating at the prospect of chaos in order to take over chunks of this country. I live in New York City, and I've been told by people of that stripe that they can't wait for the Iraqis to bring a suitcase bomb into my city to get rid of all of us useless, neurotic bloodsuckers. Deanno, I think maybe you need to forget about those "history books" and study what's REALLY happened.

Anyway, all I know is that I don't know what's going to happen, but I also don't want to completly leave my fate in the hands of others. So, just like the insurance analogy, I'm going to take some precautions. IF the world as we know it ends, then I'm f**ked no matter what. I'll learn how to play that game at that time...

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), January 14, 1999.

Well People, thank you all for your contributions! In reality, I am somewhat of an alarmist and the info I gleaned from ym father was not by any means a settling story for me. I know it is all too unrealistic to accept my father's info as fact and then turn my nose to danger. I do love my father dearly and he opinion is very valuable to me. But it's also true that he himself is a little too easy to accept that we as a whole nation can fix this monumental problem and not expect disaster of some sort.

But why I wrote that apparently one sided essay was to generate a public response for myself. Which I did, and I am btter off knowing how a majority feels and not just a few scattered people interested enough in even thinking about Y2K. So... my preperartions will go on as a pace that is good for me, I will continue to spread the faith in the word of God, and I will absolutely not make any hardcore decisions one way or another until approximatley January 1, 2001. The start of the real millenium.

Again I wish to thank you all for your attention and input, it is highly regarded. (Even those of you who called me sophomoric, nuts and a fool) I will pray for you all.

-- Adam Schaeffer (Y2KSrvivor@aol.com), January 14, 1999.

No, Maria, my husband doesn't work for a local carrier. His company is anything but small, covering just about every continent. Not supposed to discuss his shop-talk though; as he says, "this is not for bulletin-board consumption..." I'm glad to hear your company is doing well. If you see so few problems, what's with AT&T *publicly* saying there may be disruptions in service? I also read the telecommunications thread, but it seems to be all based in theory. I'm making my decisions based on actual cases occuring and statements from people working in different industries (key here is plural -- TC, food industry, power, finance, and the rest of the dominos). It sounds as though your people are on top of things, but do you really trust the other groups throughout the whole industry chain? And what about embedded chips? It's the broad spectrum that shakes me up. What really are the chances, with all the dates rolling over at the same time on everything, including those 5% (theory) of non-compliant chips, and who knows what percent on mainframes and software and hardware, that everything is going to work just fine?

I must say, though I tend to disagree with you, Maria, your posts sure do lead to great discussions ...

Jeannie

-- jhollander (hollander@ij.net), January 14, 1999.

a - showing my ignorance?? You pompous ass...... The only thing I feel stupid about is defending myself to someone like you. How many of you are working on Y2K projects?? How many of you get certification letters from vendors all over this country?? Hundreds of them! They come in EVERYDAY to my office. I have a file cabinet FULL of them. If you're not involved, then you really don't have a clue.

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), January 14, 1999.

"Yes, there is going to be some really hard core issues when it comes to the rest of the third world nations who can't make a certain part and then we can't get our toasters or new VCR's for a few weeks. But in the case of most large scale places like South America, Asia and Europe, they will have the mission critical systems fixed well ahead of schedule and then the rest shortly after."

I've been waiting to see if anyone really took on this comment by Adam, in particular the notion that their problems will cause a minor inconvenience for us of only a few weeks. Brazil is trashing the stock market once again today. How can I realistically expect that they can *afford* to remediate their factories, the lucky ones that don't go bankrupt, I mean. The international maritime industry is presumably ranked very low in compliance, and the Coast Guard has announced that it won't let non-compliance ships into port, assuming they get that far.

I'm not especially concerned (for myself) about the possibility of an infrastructure blackout - I can and I am preparing for at least 2-3 months of really serious disruption. OTOH, I'm seriously concerned about the potential for a slowly building corrosion in the goods and services we receive from outside the United States and how that will affect the economy, my ability to get to work (assuming I still have a job), and a myriad of other thinhs I can't even guess how to prepare for. In particular, I don't see how we can avoid a major oil shortage lasting, in the best of circumstances, for several months.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), January 14, 1999.

Deano, Know you have done it... You have finally gotten my blood pressure up... (Taking some deep breaths... Feeling better.. okay.. let me respond to this nicely...)

You want to know what *I* think about your statement of history...??? Right now, the U.S. is running a great risk of a race war... We did not have any riots in L.A. did we...? When people get the chance and think they can get away with it they *WILL* take yours. Out of desperation at times.. Because they *think* they deserve it at others. Americans *used* to be strong. Currently Americans are incredibly soft... They live of the reputation of there Grandfathers. Talk to any guy over 60 and the way things were back then. Do you really think a guy like Clinton could have even gotten into office..? Do you know what Honor and your WORD really mean...? The people in Croatia had almost the same standard of living as the U.S. does. Remember the winter olympics...? And now they are living off of RATS. Ask these people that came over here running away from the horrors of war in a private minute what they *really* think of americans and their thoughness.... They will laugh into your face.

This is a country that riots over a decision a court and it's jurors made. It's a country that is deeply divided. Look at tonights news... It's the Christian Right Wing Republican... These people want to kill the old and infirm, take the food out of the mouths of our children... (that's what it sounds like)... Then there are the liberals that want to just smoke joints, do heavy drugs and listen to rock and roll and free all rapists and murderers.. (We all know it's not that way but that how the media potrays it...)...

This country is divided... Racially, politically... Let's hope they can pull together like during world war II... Let's hope we have not grown to soft... Can you imagine a lawsuit, about driving your bicycle at night, down a hill and you hit something - against the bicycle manufacturer for not stating to have your light on at night and winning in 1940..???

And you say things like what happened in the old times can't happen today...??? How many people can point out the U.S. on a map without labels...???? jeeez...

-- Saint Francis (STFrancis@heaven.com), January 14, 1999.

I gotta tell you folks, my BS detector is going beserk!

I know and I'm sure a lot of you know from personal, first hand experience than managers lie as a part of their job.

We've got one self proclaimed manager who works for the biggest mortgage something or other in the country and demonstrates his "professionalism" by saying, "I can't wait to see what the next opium induced prohet (sic) with a bunch of upside down 9's up his ass is gonna predict next!!"

If any manager who worked for me spoke like that outside of a barroom, I'd fire him! No wonder you don't like the idea of guns--you're too expert at shooting yourself in the foot! Deano, I'm pretty sure it doesn't make any difference to you, but for the benefit of those who may value my counsel, I'll go on the record as saying that I do not believe you in what you say regarding your company's readiness and I know that you haven't a clue what it's like to realize that the cloud of flies you find yourself in was caused by another American killing a lot of human beings.

We've got another "manager" (who's at least honest enough to proclaim herself a "Troll") who claims to manage a Y2K project for, ". . .one of the biggies." She tells us about multi-million dollar budgets ("up around $300 million") and then tells us, " A few problems were uncovered but easily fixed." And, "There will be some isolated problems but nothing that can't be fixed within a couple of days at the outside." HONK! HONK! What's wrong with this picture?

Would either of you two care to go on record in this forum as saying, "I would not lie, even to keep my job?"

And BTW, Adam, you want to watch yourself boy, about jerking people's chains to get a reaction. You're liable to get one that you don't like, AT ALL!

-- Hardliner (searcher@internet.com), January 14, 1999.

marie: "Look at the thread on the redundancy of telecommunications." Marie, outside of AT&T and MCI, there are no major telecommunications companies. All those "1-10-10-xxx" long distance services use the same trunk lines, with different business models. Each with a different version of y2k code problem. I used to program for the largest independent telephone company in the US. There were countless mainframe programs, all which used two digits for a date. How many are fixed and how many are unimportant I don't know, but the code was mess. And if the 45,000 people that are served by that one small company lose dial tone, they will beg to differ on your "no big deal" assessment.

Adam: I didn't call you sophomoric, nuts or a fool. I called you an idiot. Where's your reading comprehension man!

Deano: I had some choice words for you as well, but E. put out a restraining order a few posts up...sorry.

-- a (a@a.a), January 14, 1999.

Did I say Deano? I meant Beano.

-- a (a@a.a), January 14, 1999.

Blue Himalayan (way up this thread),

Not everybody bats a 1,000. I also bet we almost never hear about what they do, when its correct. Not that Im a CIA afficianado, by a long shot.

But, open source and public domain intelligence is also used extensively in the business sector for competitive intelligence research (a past skill of mine). Japan also mastered in the technique. They just forgot the open and long-term wisdom aspects of applying what they learned. Tunnel vision and myopic tendencies to see only ones corner of the globe, is the business gotcha equivalent of a near-sighted astigmatism.

The research technique has, some merit, IMHO. Better than making life and death decisions based on total disinformation, happy face or excessive gloom and doom opinions.

And Deano, a file cabinet full of happy letters, for your organization, doesnt mean everyone is receiving them.

I expect maybe 85% of the stuff in the U.S. to get done. It is that which remains undone, on a global scale, that could lead to an impressive unraveling of our fragile infrastructure. Even at partially functioning levels, we may well get a doozy of a depression!

As pshannon, pointed out, there is a lot more going on than just Y2K.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), January 14, 1999.

Normally I just lurk & learn from what everyone offers. But this thread is quite amazing. I do have one comment: If the people who say that they are responsible for doing Y2K work are being straight with us (Deano, Troll Maria), then just looking at the way they THINK (ie the LOGIC, or lack thereof, in what they say), makes me think that we are DOOMED!!!

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), January 14, 1999.

Hardliner - you need to get out more. I've heard much, MUCH worse from the Execs. And I don't lie (probably told a few as a kid) but even YOU must realize that a lie will ALWAYS come back to haunt you. Do you really think I care about what you think hardliner?? Get real man. BTW - it's a mortgage banking service bureau. Geez......

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), January 14, 1999.

Deano,

What the f* is a mortgage banking service bureau?? Go lope your mule somewhere else ya twit.

-- anonymous (anon@anon.com), January 14, 1999.

Question: "Have we gone off the deep end of the Y2K pool?"

Answer : Yes.

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), January 14, 1999.

Deano,

There have been times when I've wondered if Y2K was really going to cause all the problems being postulated on this forum and elsewhere. I have to confess, there are times when I've wavered in my assessment of the severity of Y2K and the problems it will cause, even with the multitude of facts available to the contrary. But then an imbecile such as yourself comes along spouting ignorance and attitude, and I regain my clarity on Y2K. So I want to thank you for serving such a vital purpose for me and I'm sure for others on this forum. Keep up the good work, Deano. You are doing more good than you can possibly imagine.

-- Nabi Davidson (nabi7@yahoo.com), January 14, 1999.

King of Spain - I'm wondering how you would feel if everytime you voiced your opinion on this forum, someone comes along and calls you ignorant or stupid or a liar?? After a while it begins to take it's toll. I admit, some of yall pissed me off today. Someone says we're OK, someone else says 'you're crazy we're doomed'. The line about the freezing children in ditches still bothers me. The only word I have to describe it is 'SICK'. If half this 'energy' was used fixing the problem, ther would be no problem. I just don't see the end of the world in any way, shape or form. Funny thing is, when you mention that on here anymore, you get flamed. Quite honestly, I'm tired of it. I've been working my ass off on this problem for over 2 years now and have grown weary of hearing how it's all being done in vain. And this comes from 'experts' in the hills. I'm supposed to respect that? How could anyone?? And yes Mr Hardliner, I am a Y2K project manager in the Program Management Office coordinating over 60 project teams, working on 5000+ programs, for one of the largest corporations in the world. We're done. We're done assessing, we're done inventorying, we're done remediating, we're done unit-testing, we're done time-machine testing. Most of our code was remediated and tested 2 years ago and has been in production for that long. The fact that your mortgage company can run an escrow analysis and send you a coupon book is testimony to thatsome of that effort (7 in 10 single family home mortgages are processed on our software). I'd be willing to bet that the majority of home owners on this forum have a mortgage processed by our software.

It's been a fun, FUN day folks!! Can't say I didn't enjoy it! A good debate will always get the blood flowin'!

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), January 14, 1999.

Deano: "I've heard much, MUCH worse from the Execs."

I guess your superiors are a real bunch of garbage mouths, eh?

I said, "Deano, I'm pretty sure it doesn't make any difference to you", and your response was, "Do you really think I care about what you think hardliner??"

If you manage and/or think as well as you read, your company is in real trouble no matter how Y2K turns out. . .

-- Hardliner (searcher@internet.com), January 14, 1999.

Great.....more name calling. Yall are quite the collection. Very impressive folks!!

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), January 14, 1999.

We're entering the deep cesspool of current events. Today, the Prez goes on impeachment trial, stocks plunge, Brazil in turmoil, nuclear plant was on fire, several earthquakes, erupting volcanos, a govt bombed a civilian hospital, another anthrax terrorism evacuation, famine deaths in Somalia, etc etc and the day is 1/2 thru on West Coast. I'm not as worried about the computer factor, which is serious, as I am about the humanimal factor. That's what makes Y2K terrifying. Lately we've had close encounters with DWGIs in positions of power and their smug closed territorialness does not bode well.
The true question: will humans overcome their animal nature enough to rise to Y2K with soul qualities predominant?

xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx

-- Leska (allaha@earthlink.net), January 14, 1999.

Leska: Not likely to happen. Search back from the beginning of recorded history and what do you find? I call them the three D's, disease, destruction and death. I think I'm looking forward to the death part if I can skate out of going through the disease and destruction. Which way is the best way to do it?

-- bummedout (bummedout@numb.com), January 14, 1999.

FWIW, the problem I see with DWGIs is that they see the world as being an extension of their own little sphere. I think Dan Rather said it best when he said that if his cameras show one city block on fire, people assume it's the whole city on fire. The inverse is true as well; if my family is healthy and all is well (subs. "my company"), the rest of the families should be fine, too. Thank you, Leska, for giving us the global report and reminding us that we should be concerned with the humanimal response to these issues, and not the issues themselves.

Jeannie

-- jhollander (hollander@ij.net), January 14, 1999.

Deano:

How is live at Fannie Mae...??? yeah, you are all in pretty good shape... But when did you all start..??? You have some people up top that are pretty knowledgable... and I dare you say that you hear that kind of lanuage from those guys...

-- STFrancis (STFrancis@heaven.com), January 14, 1999.

Deano -

You've said lots of good things on many threads, and it's sad to hear you being so shrill and defensive on this one. Over time it's been encouraging here to find out about the progress that you've made with your company. But I'm beginning to get the impression that maybe your success has lessened your objectivity in other areas. I don't need to get into the specifics, you know what to look for. Keep up the good work at work, and I hope you find yourself in Key West at rollover...

Leska - "The true question: will humans overcome their animal nature enough to rise to Y2K with soul qualities predominant?"

I hope so, luv, I hope so...

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), January 14, 1999.

Bummed Out, the best way to die is by sudden painless heart failure at the age of 103 after living a productive life of learning, loving, and helping others. Second to that -- could write a book!

But I will say here that suicide is frowned upon by all scriptures.
Why exactly not all say, but they do agree. There is a way to leave the body with God's blessings at any time of one's choosing, and to come and go as one wishes, but that practice is achived by only the most accomplished masters of discipline, compassion, love for Spirit, and the highest inner integrity.

Your question is important and worth consideration, and has led great spiritual seekers to God. I imagine more persons' thoughts will move in this direction as Y2K comes closer if all indications point to TEOTWAWKI.

Ashton & Leska, whose business is death

xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx

-- Leska (allaha@earthlink.net), January 14, 1999.

Deano -

So does BB ever get on here? I know she's "the world's busiest human", but I figure she'd want some firsthand view of the doings in Yourdonland...

You do need to be a little less sanguine about human behavior, my friend. I have good friends from Bosnia who tell some awful stories of the here-and-now of that poor country and I can assure you, Bosnians are no different in their hopes and dreams and abilities than Americans. Also watched the area near the LA Coliseum turn into a war zone within 10 minutes during the Rodney King riots. If we lose primary services in major cities for more than 24 hours (maybe less), parts of them will almost certainly burn to the ground. Longer outages = more destruction.

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.com), January 14, 1999.

Geez, Leska, I don't think animals do even half the bad things we homo saps do. At least they aren't raising us on steriods in cages to kill us for meat.

-- Blue Himalayan (bh@k2.y), January 14, 1999.

It's funny how a simple question that is answered before it was posed has become a forty page thread of rhetoric and what can only be described as "bi-partisan" Y2Kers. All the essay was meant to do is help ask ourselves... is it all that or is it maybe just a touch of paranoia in our soup? But what happens? Character assassinations, intelligence bashing, and steadfast illusions of grandeur from people I truly beleive are smart and business savy and probably just plain decent people. But it's a good testimony to the way we react to a crisis.

Do I think Y2K will hurt the global community? Yes, absolutely. Is there a way to fix it in time? Yes, maybe if we pull the plugs on our big screen TV's, Computers, and every other nonessential luxury item and start talking to each other once again. I mean after all, whatever happened to "Love Thy Neighbor"?

Let's put aside who is right and wrong about the future and concentrate on why things are so bad for us right now. Maybe the conclusion we come to might be the best remediation to the Y2K bug and any other future technological breakdown.

-- Adam (Y2KSrvivor@aol.com), January 14, 1999.

I haven't had such a good laugh for ages. Thanks Adam and Co., I needed that...

I preface the following with the proviso that I'm trying to be as polite as possible.

Adam - 3 days research eh?? Quite a feat. Had a word with Pops did we? Everythings gonna be OK. Cool. Both fully in agreement are we? Thanks for sharing that with us. Hope your Dad finds a job.

[Aside to audience - it's true what they say about Darwin after all...]

Deano - like the name! Expect you got it at the age of two or three and, of course you plan on sticking with it the rest of your life. Similar to your take on history, people, y2k, the world in general. Infantile. Lame. No wonder people complain about the standard of education in this country.

[Aside to audience - there is no hope for mankind at this rate..]

Troll Maria - what can I say other than I give thanks to God every night that you are not my boss. I have never heard such ignorant arrogance as I've heard from you since you've started posting on this forum - you are truly a piece of work. You have not got a dickey bird, not a sorry assed clue have you? But hey, you were in the Military, you had *clearances*, you were *important*, you are *in charge now*, you *know what you're doing*, that other carrier - inferior - more work for *us* to pick up in 2000 - yippee, etc.

So, so pathetic.

[Aside to audience - Basil Fawlty voice "thank you, God..."]

With folks like you in charge it's no wonder we're in such a mess and no wonder that things are gonna turn ugly.

Totally, totally beyond hope all of you.

Good luck - you'll need it.

Jeez!!! Oi Vey!!! Sacre Bleu!!! Bleedin' Hell!!!

Andy

"The conveniences and comforts of humanity in general will be linked up by one mechanism, which will produce comforts and conveniences beyond human imagination. But the smallest mistake will bring the whole mechanism to a certain collapse. In this way the end of the world will be brought about."

Pir-o-Murshid Inayat Khan, 1922 (Sufi Prophet)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 14, 1999.

Blue Himalayan, I'm sorry, I *was* being cruel to the animals comparing them to us ;-) Does anyone ever feel like a chicken in the crowded un-natural coop of city rat race? If there *are* the nasty variety of aliens, what easy pickins they'd have swooping down on us. Billions of Happy Meals on legs ...

One thing limiting Americans' grasp of Y2K possibilities is a relatively sheltered-from-history culture. One thing that predisposed me to open consideration of Y2K was reading Anne Rice novels.

From the cannibalism thread earlier today:
If Y2K is as bad as Infomagic et al anticipate, obviously human cuisine will be a rediscovered repast.

Ppl eat meat all the time. Billions on globe, many used to easy access food. In America the overweight are increasing. Translates into more & more people getting in habit of eating more than they need. When eating becomes a habitual addiction, the mind & body crave more & more.

When Y2K stops the easy greased food wheel, are these ppl going to settle for one thinned bowl of mush a day? I don't think it's such a far leap from the roasted chicken to the fire-spitted human thigh.

Ashton & I are vegetarians, and will not be sampling human rump roasts -- not because we won't be hungry, but because we'd rather slip away from this planet if the hordes turn to mobs, armed and hungry. Those with strong survival determination will not shy from sustaining human meat. The anarchic violence is what tips our decision.

This is not suicide, but event-forced starvation, a natural, sensible option to reject becoming a member of the roving ravaging rampaging rumbles. And not suicide by drugs, because the conscious exit is highly prized and desireable. Just fading away, if circumstances force it, and in an Infomagic or Milne etc. scenario, we will feel extremely blessed to be allowed to simply slip away without encountering far worse intrusions.

BTW, for an engrossing reading of cannibalism history and related ancient religious rituals, read Anne Rice's novels, which delve into alternative diets in a gripping manner ;-|_ Her chronicles/series also describe, in vivifying detail, the downfalls of past civilizations in such a way to make the reader immediately cognizant of future collapses and keenly thankful of the riches/conveniences we now enjoy.

Ashton & Leska in Cascadia, content with salads

xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xx

-- Leska (allaha@earthlink.net), January 14, 1999.

I think this should get the "Thread of the Week" Award.

Maybe the "Can't We Just Get Along?" Award.

Or possibly the "We Would Certainly All Kill Each Other For A Scrap Of Bread If It Came To That" Award.

Or how about the "People Seem To Be Inherently Incapable Of Listening To Each Other And Absorbing New Information Before Responding" Award.

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), January 14, 1999.

Adam, if you "set up" this thread as you imply without being honest in your first post, you are doubly a fool. And I say that as a fellow believer in the Lord Jesus. Scripture indeed exhorts us to use that word with fear and trembling but it is a word we find used by the wise and most often by God Himself about .... fools .... throughout the Book. By all means, pray, brother, but there is no need to patronize the rest of us on this thread.

There are not many thing (some, but not many) that should generate passion in this life. So happens Y2K is one of them. This subject, whether for pollyannas (who think we doombrooders are going to wreak avoidable havoc by our insanity) or doombrooders (well, we know we're right), this isn't a game.

Seems like it is a game for you, though, Adam.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), January 14, 1999.

And you can bugger off too pshannon :)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 14, 1999.

Huh? Why, Andy?

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), January 14, 1999.

Deano,

To my quite serious surprise, your last post has quieted my BS detector. I've been fooled before, and no doubt will be again, but you've convinced me of your sincerity.

You said, "The line about the freezing children in ditches still bothers me", and it bothers me too. I believe that it greatly bothers whoever it was that voiced it initially. I do think you're incorrect in your asessment that it's sick. Think about it for a minute. A lot of people have little or no clue how the grand machine that is western culture and that they depend on for life itself operates. They listen to those of us who have some part of the picture and realize that we are concerned, if not downright convinced, that it may all stop working. Those of us who do have a piece of the puzzle listen to others with another piece and find our concerns echoed. Freezing children in ditches is a frightening thing to contemplate, but I assure you that there are far more vile, mandatory memories one can be cursed with. No one here is sick, but a lot are scared of an uncertain future that they have no real way of dealing with except within their own minds.

Lest you think that I believe all managers to be liars, let me put it this way; there are about as many honest managers as there are honest cops. They are rare and as such, to be treasured. I am perfectly willing to take your word that you are not lying. I have nothing to lose by it and such information as you can contribute about Y2K is only a small part of the whole puzzle, whether true or false.

Your sincerity comes through in your comments about and obvious contempt of losers and quitters. When you speak of the job you've done, the pride shows.

On the other hand, as I said earlier, you're quite adept at shooting yourself in the foot. The folks on this forum are pretty sharp, irregardless of specific knowledge of computers and such, and when you say things like, "I've been working my ass off on this problem for over 2 years now. . ." and then a few sentences later say, "Most of our code was remediated and tested 2 years ago. . .", it sets off folks BS detectors (including mine--If the second statement is true, why has he been working his ass off? If the first one is true, what has he been working at?) and when you ask, "Do you really think I care about what you think hardliner??", and then respond with, "And yes Mr Hardliner, I am a Y2K project manager. . . processed by our software", it's painfully obvious that you do care what I think. Writing all that took a lot of effort to reply to someone who's opinion didn't matter.

What genuinely speaks volumes to me though, is when you say that you've, "grown weary of hearing how it's all being done in vain." If I were in your shoes and I knew that my part was finished and had enough rock solid, for sure, absolutely reliable information about everyone else's "piece of the pie" that I knew Y2K was going to be a "no big deal" event, I'd simply not listen. Lacking that assurance, I'd wonder if maybe it was being done in vain and that would not only get wearying, it would be painful.

Excepting "Trolls", I don't believe anyone comes to this forum with a bad intent. Folks simply want to find out all that they can about what has been honestly described as the biggest event in our lifetime (whether rightly or wrongly so described). I am personally convinced that the stakes are enormous, both individually and socially.

I also hope that you'll continue to contribute to this forum. Taking you at your word that you're not a quitter, I have every expectation that you will.

-- Hardliner (searcher@internet.com), January 14, 1999.

Well, friends, we've been had, (as I'm sure you've finally discovered) by another self-admitted troll. "But why I wrote that apparently one sided essay was to generate a public response for myself," admitted Adam Scheaffer. I guess the little guy was just looking for attention. "Again I wish to thank you all for your attention and input, it is highly regarded." At least he was polite about it. That's a lot more than can be said for some of the BaggaTrolls who have visited here.

Had I come in earlier, I would have posted this:

[AOL] Profile for:

Y2K Survivor

Member Name: Y2K Bug

Location: Global

Birthdate: the 70's

Hobbies: Ruining the lives of happy , modern man. And basically reaking havok on everything

Computers: I'll use them all for my own wicked scheme to end the world

Occupation: Mainframe Virus and part time PC Glitch

Personal Quote: This is the latest up to date comments/news site: http://www.greenspun.com/bb oard/q-and-a.tcl?topic=Time Bomb%202000%20%28Y2000%29

Ahh, these kids. Always showing off. I'm glad I didn't bust his cover; you guys seemed to be having such a good time. I don't have the patience to count the posts, but I think we may have set a record for a one-day thread. It certainly must be a record word-count for 12 hours.

My congratulations also on the high level of courtesy and consideration displayed throughout. At no time did the level of rancor rise above a 3 on the "Milne Invective" scale. Can you imagine the smoking monitors had dear Adam posted his bait to csy2k?

And, while I learned little new about Y2K, I did learn quite a bit about the people who hang out here at Ed's board. I am further confirmed in my estimation of your intelligence, acumen and sincerity. It is indeed a priviledge and a pleasure to know you.

Hallyx

"Invest yourself in the quality of the discourse, but not the outcome."---Richard Reese

-- Hallyx (Hallyx@aol.com), January 14, 1999.

Deano, Im sorry my frozen children bothered you, but if you would open your eyes and review history and current events around the world you would realize that the United States is a totally artificial construct on this planet. It exist in defiance of the basic laws of nature, and human nature. There is no person on this planet who is more than a week away from being a refugee under the right set of conditions. The collapse of the electrical grid in the dead of winter certainly could, and will if it occurs, lead to starving refugees some of whom will be children, freezing to death in snowbound ditches. That's the real world. Face it.

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), January 14, 1999.

Deano- You stated: "I've been working my ass off on this problem for over 2 years now..."

That means you started in 1996. It has taken your company two years? How would you feel if your company started in 1997, or 1998, or hadn't even started yet? Would your view of the world be different?

I think you and Troll Maria are relying too much on your own experience as a measure of other companies and government entities progress. And you may be putting too much faith in those compliance letters that are filling your filing cabinets. If your company started 6 months ago and you realized that you were not going to make it in time... your company would not send a letter that said: "We started too late and we will not be finished in time, but please continue to do business with us until the very last minute."

This is not directed at your area of responsibilty within your company, but as a comment about your company. Are you saying that over 5,000 programs are required for simple mortgage calculations? Amortization, escrow, and account maintenance are child's play in the world of calculations. The fact that 7 out of 10 mortgages in the U.S. are handled by one company reinforces my belief that centralization and dependance on sole-source providers is the business equivalence of centralized governance. The U.S. has spent many lives and a lot of money to fight centralized governments around the world in the last 50 years. But they collapsed on their own from the weight of their inefficiency.

To Adam: I think it's great that you trust your father's opinion and think so highly of him. I'm sure he's a smart man. But there are a lot of smart people on this forum and in the world. I think the old "feel, felt, found" saying is appropriate for you and your father:

I understand how you can feel the way you do. I've know many people who felt the same way. But, when they found out how many systems we depend on may not work. they decided that preparing is smarter than not preparing. I trust you will too.

There is more to this than toasters and VCR's. Make a list of everything in your house and driveway that was made outside the U.S. Then think of how many jobs and businesses in the U.S. depend on those products. If you do this, I hope you'll send the results to me. I'd like to know.

-- PNG (png@gol.com), January 14, 1999.

Troll Maria: ThePentagon called. They want to know if you took that 5000 dollar dust pan with you when you left.

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), January 14, 1999.

Adam: Great...now I see your last post. I liked you better as the simpleton with hope. Now you're just a fool.

-- PNG (png@gol.com), January 14, 1999.

Nikoli Krushev;

>>Troll Maria: ThePentagon called. They want to know if you took that 5000 dollar dust pan with you when you left.<<

No, she didn't take the dust pan. But she did fly off on one of those $3000.00 brooms.

-- Slick (DUnNow@heehee.comm), January 14, 1999.

I told you all, talk, talk, talk. l

-- Linda A. (adahi@muhlon.com), January 14, 1999.

This is for Adam, Deano, Troll Maria and other overly and dangerously hopeful people;

""We must not reject all serious consequences because we reject the most severe and improbable. Wishful disbelief and blind optimism won't shield us from the very real and likely consequences of Y2K." - Bruce F. Webster, Testimony before Congress, September 9, 1998."

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), January 14, 1999.

Adam,

If you live in tornado alley, if you have some supplies, and if you don't see serious disruptions from Y2K...

...then why are you calling this forum? I've already seen other threads you've started here. What value is this forum to you if you're prepared and you know enough about Y2K to say that it'll be a minor issue to the U.S.?

Not everyone who calls this forum believes that late 20th century Western Civilization is going to collapse. People who call here believe in many different shades of disruption and preparation.

You obviously haven't read Ed's book. If you had, you would know he doesn't advocate a particular degree of preparedness. Ed's book discusses how Y2K could affect different sectors of society, what the outcome would be if there were failures that lasted two days vs. one month vs. one year vs. ten years. Ed describes various scenarios and then lets you decide what's appropriate for yourself.

You assume that everyone who decides to make personal preparations because of what they know about Y2K is going to cash out their IRA or 401K plans, withdraw all their money from the bank, buy a large supply of items all at one time, and move to the country.

Too many assumptions on your part. Sure, a certain percentage of people on this forum are going to do just that. But some believe in preparation although not to that extent, and some of us like me aren't even in a financial position to do the big things you assume everyone on Ed's forum is planning to do.

I have never owned stock or mutual funds. I don't have an IRA or 401K plan to cash out of. I have very little money in my credit union, and it's always been this way for me.

I can't wait until September or October of this year to start preparing for Y2K, because I don't have the money to go out and buy everything at once. My preparation for Y2K is buying a few extra groceries each week, getting a kerosene heater and buying poor man's barter goods like matches and toilet paper--all a little bit at a time.

If this year goes on and news about Y2K gets better, then I can stop my slow and steady personal preparation. What I'm accumulating right now are things I should have always had. A tornado went through my city in April 1974, and we didn't have electricity for a week because of it. Did I learn from that? No. I'm getting wiser now.

About panic. The public is truly dense when it comes to Y2K. They cannot conceive that the next few years could be much different from the seven, fat, prosperous years that we've just had. They will not start preparing for Y2K until something major happens, like maybe big problems with IRS computers during tax season, or maybe hearing on the evening news about nuclear power plants whose Y2K compliance is in question.

There aren't enough people preparing for Y2K to cause shortages that would make new groups of people want to start hoarding. Only major Y2K problems or missed deadlines that make the evening news and the front page of the newspaper could set off a self-causing feedback loop of hoarding.

I can only prepare a little bit at a time. I need to get a feel for how Y2K remediation by the government, businesses and utilities is going, so that I can nudge my preparations in the direction of what I can discern is coming. I don't know what's going to be happen in early 2000, but I need to. I call here to gauge that.

Cold can kill in northern lattitudes. People can only live three or four days without water, and Chicago as one example, is concerned about the effect of embedded system failures will have on their water supply.

Don't play the disinformation game with us. We can't cause panic, but you can confuse people enough to stop them from making modest or more extensive preparations that could save their lives. Deadlines are being missed. The Red Cross, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and the National Guard take Y2K seriously. Who are you to say we shouldn't?

This forum has conseratives, moderates and liberals on it. It has people on it making slow, small preparations, and others making quicker, more extensive preparation. Some expect disruption for a few weeks, some a few months, and some think it could last longer.

Remember, three or four days without water will kill a person.

Do your soul a favor and stop this disinformation campaign against us.

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), January 14, 1999.

Adam,

I don't know how close you are to Atlanta, but I promise you that Atlanta Airport could use your dad's help!! They are hiring students from local technical schools (with NO computer experience) to work on their Y2K project.

Dian

-- Dian (worried@georgia.com), January 14, 1999.

Good job, Hallyx.

Theres another level of Y2K concern that is becoming readily apparent. As Ive explored the National Guard and related links, I realize the potential terrorism issue is partly what is driving the behind-the-scenes mobilization.

Adam or whoever you are, if interested, I suggest you read the following speech, illustrating how the National Guard is being used in U.S. terrorism response, by 2000:

Remarks by Hon. Charles L. Cragin, Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense (Reserve Affairs)

SAIC WMD Conference (Weapons Of Mass Destruction), 3 December 1998, Warrenton, VA

http://raweb.osd.mil/publications/speeches/saicwmdc.htm

Then mosey on over to this thread, for starters.

National Guard Y2K Report To The U.S. Senate (Nov. 1998) -- Preparing for Y2K-Related Problems in the U.S.

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id= 000NsF

Each day, I become more thoughtful, about all the upcoming issues.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), January 14, 1999.

A friend of mine sent me a note with the url of this thread. I don't know if he was trying to punish me or what, but I read through quite a bit of it. Here's the most interesting thing about it to me:

It's exactly the same as every other thread like this I've seen something like 5,000 times in the past 18 months.

Same ideas, same arguments, same words, same feel. Somewhere in it someone said something about how the problem could've been solved 20 years ago if the energy here was put into it. I don't know about that, but unless you're totally new to y2k, how in the world can you stand saying/thinking/typing the same things over and over and over and over and over and over and over again?

To me, this is one of the weirdest "sub-phenomenas" of y2k world. It's happening everywhere: People saying the same things over and over. It's almost worse than the news. I don't know, but I'd say this end of y2k is some kind of example of a massive, but pretty much equal, mix of angst and boredom manifested by the typists.

Nothing personal, and no offense, it's just that for the potentially biggest baddest thing since who knows what, y2k is also the most boring thing I've ever seen.

(And no need to tell me how it won't be boring pretty soon or anything else like anything else in this thread and its countless relatives. Somebody already did, at least a year and a half ago. Wasn't you, was it?)

Have fun,
Jim

-- Jim (antanko@leepo.com), January 15, 1999.

Thanks Jim.

And on that note pshannon

"And you can bugger off too pshannon :)"

it was a joke, hence the :), as is this thread, as is, of course y2k.

Goodnight all.

--

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 15, 1999.

Jim,

No, the most boring thing I've ever seen is the relentless press coverage of the President Clinton/Monika Lewinski affair. Too bad the press hasn't given that kind of attention to something more important like Y2K.

We have to be our own press on this forum.

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), January 15, 1999.

Nabi - you called me an imbecile for not agreeing with the EOTW theory. Says volumes about you.

StFrancis - Nice try but not FNMA. I've seen much worse language on this forum by several people. Please get over it.

Andy - Making fun of ones nickname. Very impressive. Actually my nickname was 'Lefty' as a kid. Deano came along later in life. I didn't choose it, it just happened.

Hardliner - I ain't going anywhere. Not one to run and hide from anything.

Later

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), January 15, 1999.

Troll Maria, would you please e-mail me? I would like to chat with you.

Don't worry, I'm friendly...

Julie

-- Julie (julierb@mindspring.com), January 15, 1999.

Well, quite a disscussion on y2k and preparations for it. I have been stocking up and rotating supplies for over ten years and not with y2k in mind but something far more important to the human race as an impetus. I have been curious about ancient prophecies for 30 years. Have studied Nostredamus, the Bible, ancient Catholic prophecies etc. An old Irish monk named Malachy predicted the succession of Popes that was discovered centuries ago in Vatican archives. We are now on the third from the last in his account. Anna Katharine Emerich who died in 1825 told of extensive visions she had that would culminate in a great upheaval in society in the late 20th century. Fatima in 1917 predicted the second and possibly third world wars. None however mention y2k. But all point to this time as one for being prudent and stockpiling supplies. There are some things that are more important than food. Seeds for future food are one item. Needles, thread, etc. June of 1999 is one date that comes to mind to be ready by. Y2k may be God's way of getting peoples attention. I know my thoughts may be disjointed but their is much to get ready for and little time to do it. Take time for self introspection and get your house in order. As for problems with y2k, my insurance agent said they are already happening. Supposedly their programs were ready. He is getting fixes now almost daily. Not very reassuring to me. God bless you all. Charlie

-- Charles Kuchar (ckuchar@swbell.net), January 18, 1999.

Jim, boring minds get bored quicker, because they can't find newness in old things. Perhaps yourself have rehashed everything over months until your fingers fell off, or your brain. Myself I haven't come to that point yet, but I'm sure it will come eventually. I have a bored threshold too.

In any case, you're right on one point, a lot of the same things are being said over and over ad nauseum, everywhere. I wish there was a FAQ on this forum, for newcomers. Even at that, we'd still ruminate same things, over and over, with new angles.

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), January 18, 1999.