The biggest issue if y2k is just a bump will be credibility of warnings .

Suppose in 2004 a new strain of Ebola comes up that is air-spread and truly contagious, but works like AIDS in not showing immediate symptoms. This is a good and plausible viral strategy, because it allows for widespread infection before the vector is killed by the viral predator. Further, suppose that only certain Draconian public health and personal measures, if applied early enough, could stop it. After this y2k thing, nobody'll believe it.

Y2K, in a weird reverse way, will have taken out the human race after all.

-RC

-- Run Way Cat (Runway_Cat@hotmail.com), January 12, 1999

Answers

Remember that avian flu in Asia a couple years ago, when they slaughtered twenty million birds to keep it from spreading? The reason they did that was that eighteen humans had been infected. About a third died.

Some varieties of avian flu attack all body tissues, even the brain. There was a similar slaughter in the U.S. a while back. Birds were hemorrhaging just as if they had Ebola.

Recent (possibly the current) issues of Scientific American and one of the popular science-type magazines reported on this. Researchers in the field are terrified by it, and some are getting cabins in the woods for that reason alone. The estimates quoted in the article are that one third to one half of the world's population would die if this flu ever seriously crossed over to humans. If not for that 20-million-bird slaughter, it could easily have happened already.

Just thought I'd brighten your day.

-- Shimrod (shimrod@lycosmail.com), January 12, 1999.

Why do you keep elbowing me this way, RC ;-}

Some of my friends who are familiar with the elements of Earthcrisis (climate change, soil/water depletion, oil production peak--you know the litany) agree that a relatively light Y2K tap could very well desensitize people to impending environmental crises. It could be one reason you hear so little about Y2K from environmental sources.

I'm ashamed to infer that their strategy may be to "hope for the worst." But that may just be a reflection of my own cynicism. Any other environmentally-aware respondents see it this way?

Hallyx

"What if from the beginning of life, nature were perceived as teacher, guide, source; as important to us as our families? How differently would we live?"---Anita Barrows

-- Hallyx (Hallyx@aol.com), January 12, 1999.

It doesn't have to be a virus, Cat, it could be anything that potentially has the same "wipe us out" affect. Look at history for the precedents, from the glaciers to the bubonic plauge to asteroids. Also consider the many times where it turned out to be crying wolf. Several times, when telling foks about Y2K, their reaction was to bring up something that was warned against but never happened - a failed prediction (nuclear war in the '50sor' 60s for example) and by illogical extension therefore they determine that Y2K is also crap. So to some extent, some people already are reacting to Y2K in this "nobody will believe it" way.

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), January 12, 1999.

One is more likely to surive Y2K than a deadly virus. The plague wiped out 1/3 of Europe and they had no idea what caused it. Many believed that by wiping themselves with human waste it would ward off the plague. Ignorance? It's the same ignorance that will plague the DGIs.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), January 12, 1999.

The flu virus is a major concern. They doing alot of research on it right now. They killed most of the chickens in Japan that were carrying the virus..which is similar to Ebola...but we had a few cases crop up not to long ago. The center for disease is just holding their breath there won't be a break out but feel it is just a matter of time. The only way people escaped a similar fate years ago was to quarantine themselves in the country. NO one was allowed in or out.

-- Moore Dinty moore (not@thistime.com), January 12, 1999.

If anybody is concerned about virusses, parasites, bacteria, germs, etc, look into Colloidal Silver and Blood Electrification. Both will kill any of these critters immediately. For more info simply put these two names in your search engines including Bob Beck, who invented the blood electrification. When I feel a sore throat or cold coming on, I use both and the next day the symptoms are totally gone!!! Never again do I need to see a doctor for any antibiotic!!! You can buy your own colloidal silver maker and it costs only pennies to make. You can buy the units off the internet.

-- Eddie Pons (ponski@soft-link.com), January 12, 1999.

Both colloidal silver and blood electrification gives you good protection against germ and biological warfare in case "Saddam Insane" gets any funny ideas!

-- Eddie Pons (ponski@soft-link.com), January 12, 1999.

Okay Eddie...next time there's an Ebola breakout, why don't you volunteer to go down and help out. Don't bother with protective gloves or anything, you've got colloidal silver. Share needles with some HIV-pos junkies while you're at it. You're immune.

Dinty M., what were the recent cases??

-- Shimrod (shimrod@lycosmail.com), January 12, 1999.

Eddie: So how much are you invested into Bob Beck? Go to your local health food store and get collodial silver, etc. But be careful with this stuff! Can you say "GULLIBLE?" Read everything you can on the subject before leaping!

-- Whoa (Whoa@careful.com), January 12, 1999.

As if this idea isn't scary enough, there are now five known strains of Ebola, four of which are burly to the human set. (Ebola Zaire and Ebola Sudan, the first two known strains; Ebola Gibon; Ebola Reston, the one named from its first found origin point, Reston, VA, where it torched a few hundred monkeys and is the only strain that doesn't work nasty deeds to humans; and Ebola Ivory Coast.)

If any strain decides to go airborne instead of requiring fluid or aerosol transportation, Y2K will be a non-issue as there'll be nobody left that would care.

OddOne, who has been a sort of a fan of Ebola...

-- OddOne (mocklamer@geocities.com), January 12, 1999.

As an added interesting note re. ebola-There is already an airborne strain. Ebola Reston, is both air and blood borne. Luckily, reston isn't transmissable to humans, but the Zaire and Reston strains are so closely related that it is indistinguishable even to microscopic examination. I've heard it said that they're not even sure what makes it different. Now, if those 2 got together and decided to marry:)...

Damian, who is also a bit of an admirer of ebola, in a wierd sort of way.

-- Damian Solorzano (oggy1@webtv.net), January 13, 1999.

Don't exaggerate. I have not heard of any species having been wiped out purely as the result of a viral infection. This would NOT be good evolutionary strategy because the virus would die out along with its host!

Of course, a 90% wipeout would be a non-event in evolutionary terms but definitely TEOTWAWKI for us -- so don't be complacent either. Mother nature can be a real bitch at times.

-- Nigel Arnot (nra@maxwell.ph.kcl.ac.uk), January 13, 1999.

Indeed Nigel, selective mutation would make a small percentage of the population acquire an immunity to the virus. An obvious example is with AIDS, which some people have an immunity to. But the war between host and virus keeps going on, as the humans acquire immunity, the virus in turn mutate itself.

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), January 13, 1999.

Nigel, I don't think you are knowledgeable about Ebola. It can run wild in a population from one species (say, humans), killing many, maybe someday all, and then "retreat" to a basically dormant state, living in bats or other creatures until better food comes along again.

-- runway cat (Runway_Cat@hotmail.com), January 13, 1999.

Just an observation.

During the bubonic black plague days, the only ones who tended NOT to get it, were the perfumers. Why? They were daily handling the natural botanical distillations. Most essential oils or aromatherapy as they are now called is anti-bacterial, anti-fungicidal, anti-viral, etc.

Also, many of the natives around the world learned that when you have a dangerous critter, say a rattlesnake, that usually common plants growing in the same area provided an antidote of sorts to all kinds of bites and stings. A natural back-up system.

Suggestion, for all strange and bizarre illnesses post Y2K: Learn to grow and use medicinal herbal plants and to also recognize the wild healers in your area. Use them daily.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), January 13, 1999.

With all due respect, why do you think that dosing yourself with "colloidal silver" would be much different from chugging down arsenic, mercury, lead, or some other toxic heavy metal? What is the biological mechanism behind this stuff? What makes you think that this just isn't like snake oil?

-- Django Reinhardt (coprolith@rocketship.com), January 13, 1999.

Diane - plague was spread by fleas which were spread by rats. It's quite probable that perfumers maintained better hygeine standards than most (so as better to demonstrate their wares!), also quite possible that some of those essential oils discouraged fleas (maybe had mild insecticidal properties: many plants try to poison the insects that eat them).

Cat - if emergent plagues could wipe out an entire species in months, don't you think we'd have seen it happen to some species or other by now? And Ebola isn't a 100% killer - there are a few who've survived it, and many more who were living in native villages where it broke out who did not become ill. Either they are resistant to it, or its transmissibility is low. From what I know of it, the first.

-- Nigel Arnot (nra@maxwell.ph.kcl.ac.uk), January 14, 1999.