Does y2k start this April?!!!greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Does y2k start this April? Canada and Japan rollover on April 1, 1999. What does that mean to you and me? I think, as a result, that the banks will cease to function, as well as the government. Is that the case? Any mainframers out there, or people in the know who understand the ramifications of this?
-- samecase (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 11, 1999
samecase, there is no "official" start date for Y2K (though, until recently, the news media always claimed it was January 1, 2000). April 1, 1999, is when many governments and businesses roll over to fiscal year 2000 (such as New York State, and Canada). This is one of many Y2K so-called "spike dates". However, this one is conjectured to be the one that really gets the attention of John Q. Public, since it will provide many living, true blue examples of Y2K problems. ("Granny lives in New York, and she says she didn't get her check!")
The reaction of John Q. Public could easily be, for the first time, the realization that: 1) Y2K is real; and 2) it will affect everyone, its just a matter of time, but surely by Jan 1. The thought that everything John Q. has in the bank could turn to electronic mush could easily be enough to cause bank runs. Which could rightfully be considered the beginning of the most serious Y2K problems.
-- Jack (email@example.com), January 11, 1999.
My point exactly. The perception that Y2K is starting could facilitate bank runs. My question is, even though this is a rollover of spike date, will this have the same 'problematic' effect on the bank's mainframes etc. In short, when a fiscal year rolls over for a government, does it start becoming affected by the '00'. Does anyone know?
-- same (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 11, 1999.
What you asked about governments and fiscal-year roll-overs is a good question. A "00" will impact a government's accounting systems if they have not been remediated, but I don't know how that might impact the delivery of specific social services and the like.
Anyone on here able to answer this? I've asked this question before too, but never got an answer.
-- Kevin (email@example.com), January 11, 1999.
rollover in Japan will probably be *zero* effect - remember we're talking about a country where people are already paying the banks to keep their money - no kidding - it's refered to as "negative interest".
even if rollover in Canada does cause panic up there, it'll most likely not spread down here to any perceivable degree... The US media are DWGI and are intent on keeping as much of the American public in the dark for as long as possible.
-- Arlin H. Adams (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 11, 1999.
Remember though, all the banking systems are as integrated as the power grid. So if banks in Japan and Canada starting seizing up, then the US banks will pretty useless. This is what I believe will be a cascading effect, where the bank runs get out of control. I work for the Canadian government, and a few of our screens in the Pension plan area are having problems, but nothing too serious yet. However, when April 1 rolls around, I'll be surprised if we're still capable of issuing pension cheques. Funny though, how our department is working towards being fully compliant by Dec 31, 1999, as if the April 1 date didn't even exist. Talk about trying to keep us in the dark.
-- same (email@example.com), January 11, 1999.
same, I agree with your assessment regarding inconnectedness of banking around the world.
If there are problems overseas with banks and those banks try to interface with banking elsewhere or the can't interface at all then what will that do?
I've always believed that the "self-fulfilling prophecy" point was moot. It's goint to happen it's just a question of when and what will be the catalyst.
-- Michael Taylor (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 12, 1999.
A lot of people have some egg on their faces from predictions of major trouble on 1/1/99. There have also been predicted troubles as far back as last September. Needless to say, we are still trucking along. Some problems have occured, nothing yet that I would term 'major'. If the rollover for the early states goes well (it is scattered over several dates), it would seem likely that the major hurdles left will be the Federal rollover on Oct. 15, the GPS rollover the last week of August(of which I expect almost nothing), and the 12/31/1999 - 1/1/2000 rollover which tells the tale on PLC's and embedded control devices.
-- Paul Davis (email@example.com), January 12, 1999.
I'm starting to think of supposed "predictions of major trouble on 1/1/99" much like the highly touted "planes will fall from the sky" that one is always seeing. In spite of my near daily tracking of the Y2K issue, I have never actually seen any credible source actually claim either of these events! The most that I saw for the 1/1/1999 event was the "Jo Anne Effect", which clearly would only affect specific accounting software, and take some number of weeks to even be noticed. As far as the Planes Falling stuff, it would be an interesting Internet research project for a high school class to try to find when this actually first appeared, and from where.
-- Jack (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 12, 1999.
I think it was Gayla who started the planes falling out of the sky thingy ;-|
-- Craig (email@example.com), January 12, 1999.
Japan begins FY 1999 on April 1, 1999 - It does NOT begin FY 2000 on April 1, 1999.
Fiscal years have little to do with company or country operations. Producing products, providing services and distributing them are the elements that create commerce. Looking ahead in projections and deciding where and when you are going to post the results is keeping score...not producing, providing or distributing.
If an entity has system problems during a FY rollover, it certainly won't be the first time in their history. And neither will it be the last. Most will be transparent to the customer and even people outside the accounting or IT departments will not know that the problem is being worked.
System problems and failures happen every single day throughout the world. That's why companies hire people...people solve problems. If there were no problems, we wouldn't need any people. Sure, there may be an increase in problems, but when problems are reported, keep in mind that a lot more people are looking to report them now. Fiscal year roll-over problems did happen last year. And the year before. And the year before that. They were either transparent and/or not newsworthy.
If an unanticipated glitch (and aren't they all) does occur, they are learning opportunities that may be applicable to key operational systems later in the year.
If you want to put significance to April, 1999, it may be the juncture beyond which, we can do little more to increase the pace of remediation. You might say that we've turned onto final approach and are commited to land. Just like the Space Shuttle, there are no "go arounds."
The priorities beyond that point should be to recognize that indeed, we can become our own worst enemy by fulfilling our own prophecies. My views and fears are changing. I refuse to be trapped by a closed mind. How we conduct ourselves before and during the landing will have a greater impact on the result, than the impact from the technology.
Here is a bit of irony. The Gartner Group reports that the U.S. is the leader in y2k remediation and leads the top tier -15% of companies will be unable to produce or deliver their product. Japan is ranked in the third tier - 50% failure. I live in Japan.
I'm the one who feels sorry for you (if you're in America). I have no fear of my neighbors or strangers. My wife can walk on any street at 3 AM without fear.
Anacostia, Cabrini Green, East St. Louis, Watts, East L.A. - - - No thanks. I'll take third tier.
At first I thought y2k was a computer problem. Next I thought it was a management problem. Now I think it's a cultural problem.
Fiscal year roll overs don't seem so important anymore.
-- PNG (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 12, 1999.
PNG, I'm happy for your wife, but in fact there are numerous and frequent cases of rape in Japan - it is not nearly as uncommon as believed, though it is heavily under-reported. Knives are used to threaten, rather than guns. Doesn't happen to foreigners much however.
-- Blue Himalayan (email@example.com), January 12, 1999.
PNG, does this mean you are getting more attuned to the "Chittum" view, defined as follows:
(i) y2k is not a big deal, but
(ii) ethnically-based Civil War II is likely in America's near future ? -RC
-- Runway Cat (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 12, 1999.
PNG: I think those "semi-predictable shocks" have started to get to you...
-- a (email@example.com), January 12, 1999.
Blue Himalayan: -- Are you implying that reported and unreported rates of crime are comparable?
R.C. -- I don't know who "Chittum" is. However, if those two points are his beliefs, I ascribe to neither.
I think fiscal year changes will not stress a company or a country and should not be used as a gauge.
I don't know where the Civil War II part came from.
You must be in the mood to verbally spar today?? Now that I've taken a another look at the question. the vocabulary level and writing style doesn't match the level of the question....Did you post this, you dog?
-- PNG (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 12, 1999.
Thank you Jack! Who ever said that there are going to be "major" problems due to fiscal year roll-overs? These dates appear on peoples' timelines as "dates to watch for", often with little more expectation placed on them than that. And indeed, our first time crossing has yielded some very interesting results, including riots in France and some panicky business managers in the Senate offices. But I -- and, I expect, most Y2K GIs -- have never weighted the fiscal year rollovers very heavily. Mr. Davis is tilting at windmills, me thinks.
-- Franklin Journier (email@example.com), January 12, 1999.
Craig, ROFL! After all of the time I worked for Continental Airlines, I would really have been in trouble if I started THAT rumor! :-)
-- Gayla Dunbar (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 12, 1999.
No seriously, PNG, I'm not verbally sparring or flaming at all. While many on this forum are offended by Chittum, I have read his book, and I'm willing to at least consider his ideas. Of course, there is a fine line that could be interpreted as racist in this area, which I would never wish to have anything to do with whatsoever.
Anyway, Chittum has analyzed the "Reconquista" of the southwest (yes, there is such vocabulary among academics) as inevitably leading to an American Civil War II. He posits other similar splits involving other ethnic groups. He does NOT, however, believe that y2k will be anything but a minor bump. Pick your disaster! Your remarks hinting you've reconsidered the seriousness of y2k, coupled with your pointing out the unsafe areas of America reminded me of Chittum's analysis, that's all. Not meaning to insult anybody.
PS - Chittum's dismissal of y2k in favor of Civil War reminds me of the old MAD magazine cartoon, where they satirized Ripley's "Believe It or Not":
"On June 16, 1959, Mr. Bob Jones of Brooklyn stood out on a 10th floor ledge as a crowd gathered in the street below. Amazingly they DID NOT yell for him to jump ! BELIEVE IT OR NOT ! (they did however yell for him to set fire to himself)
-- runway cat (email@example.com), January 12, 1999.