How long will it take to reveal the fact that many utilities aren't going to make it?

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I have been thinking more and more about Bonnies' review of the the SEC 10Qs. These 10Q reports, when taken as a whole, show that many utilities are very far behind schedule; especially regarding embedded systems. They are far behind and many negative factors have not yet been taken into account: For example:

1. The last 20% of the of remediation will be on the toughest problems. 2. When testing starts this summer they will find a need for replacement parts that are in short supply due to many utilities ordering at the same time. 3. The utilities are not testing all of the embedded systems but all need to be tested.

Soon, the utilities will either have to admit the truth or information will leak out by whistleblowers. 1998 has been a year of analysis. 1999 will become a year of exposure?

I see that this exposure is inevitable. What I don't see is when. My feel is that this exposure will start to happen soon. New SEC 10Qs will start coming out and unless a lot of coverup is done, I predict our nation will start to get the message.

I'd like to hear your opinions on this? When is this country going to find out what many of us have already read in the 10s?

-- Anonymous, January 11, 1999

Answers

Though a computer professional, I'm just a consumer with respect to energy ("take, take, take" is my motto). But my prediction is that we will see exactly the same information pattern as today throughout nearly all of 1999, barring something highly unexpected happening. Even if some nukes are shut down, this will exert a calming effect on media exposure (evidence that the feds have things under control), not alarming. I'm not saying it should, I'm saying it will.

Even from within utility shops (if they remotely resemble ones I know from other industries) the honest uncertainty about the range of the dangers leads to caution in communicating exposures publicly *either way*. This creates all the statements that read, "we are very confident blah blah blah but can't guarantee blah blah blah."

Now, this doesn't mean that Rick, Bonnie and the other Sherlocks won't be able to elicit a tapestry pattern of great value to those of us who are preparing (okay, worrying). But that is a different animal than widespread, national press.

From a national/international point of view, Y2K is going to be an "after the fact" feast for the media, but we aren't going to get, broadly speaking, reliable info because ... there .... isn't .... much.

Elimination of panic is the non-conspiratorial but universally "understood" order of the day. This will hold everywhere but, probably, with banking and even that may hold until October or so.

-- Anonymous, January 11, 1999


Perhaps your are right. My point above was that to cover up the truth about dozens or even hundreds of utilities is going to be a very tough job. At some point the truth is going to start leaking through. Most of the engineers working on embedded systems are people of high integrity and I don't believe they will join together to withhold vital information from the public.

The reason I am bringing this topic up is that if the truth is revealed the public is going to demand action and get it.

An embedded system team might have 50 or 100 engineers on it. Team size could be doubled or tripled immediately by local firms donating engineers to work on utility embedded systems. Doubling IT team size might not help at all. Doubling embedded systems team size could almost double the speed of the remediation (not testing).

What most people don't realize is that embedded systems teams are quite small and the fate of our nation could be improved with an emergency program that starts soon. However, to do this, the truth about the embedded system status at utilities needs to be revealed on a national level.

Just one honest and couragous utility CEO could set an example by requesting help from his local industrial customers. His own customers have the expertise to save the utility.

I just found out that the quarterly y2k readines report from the North American Electric Reliability Council will be presented at the National Press Club (http://www.press.org/) today at 1:30 PM EST.

-- Anonymous, January 11, 1999


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