Just read the thread about Yardeni and Koskenian intereview and got the feeling Yardeni was saying we are in the middle of the bump in the road and we might feel a slight recession. Of course, Kosky said everything is ok. Not too long ago de Jaguar backed off from his previous outlook on Y2k. In fact, I have not read anything from him in a while. Question is this, with the Red Cross, FEMA and the National Guard gearing up...why are these guys backing off. Question 2, why are we the only ones that know about Red Cross, FEMA, etc? Appears this stuff should be BIG NEWS but have yet to see it in my local rag. Sometimes I feel this is a big hoax and I am going to wake up being the goof. How many of you are really in the position to KNOW what is happening. We are just reading artilces and making assuptions and interpetions. The article about the Federated Department Store for example. The CEO might be a drunk and can't do his job. His resignation might not have anything to do with Y2k but yet someone took the time to do reseach on this store and link it with Y2k. On some days I beleive, but today I question those beleifs. I think it is just too much for the human mind to preceive. Boy, am I depressed.

-- Linda A. (adahi@muhlon.com), January 10, 1999

Answers

Cheer up, Linda. Welcome to the Human Condition!

None of us knows. We're all just taking the snippets that we find and putting it together like a jigsaw puzzle. We come to the conclusions that make the most sense to us individually, and act accordingly (or not). Maybe the big kids you mentioned really do believe it won't be so bad, maybe they have an agenda to lie.

As far as BIG MEDIA, or advertising driven media, anyway, it's not in their best interest to report news like this in any meaningful and consistent way. It would radically alter "consumers" relationship with and approach to the "marketplace." They ain't gonna let that happen, at least not by their own hand. YOU know where to find other sources of information and you know how to relate that information to this issue.

As far as this being a hoax, or at least GREATLY overblown, I hope and pray that that's the case. I will have no problem whatsoever in say, April or May of 2000 having all my friends laugh at me for being such a nut. In fact, I look forward to that day...

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), January 10, 1999.

If you want my opinion on y2k (possibilties, 'cause I do not know). If this is the thing I have been reading about for the last 25 years then it will only be poetic justice for the System to end this way. Again I am only going on the Programers prognostication (prophecy) that the System will die. I do know that it will die someday so...go to Pastor Chris' forum and look under "Zions Fire" if you want my input. http://greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a.tcl?topic=Y2K%20Forum

-- Mark Hillyard (foster@inreach.com), January 10, 1999.

Linda,

What alters my thinking is watching how "they" alter theirs, at least publicly.

Yet, when we dig, we just have too many hidden indications that it aint so. The American Red Cross would NOT risk their fine world- wide reputation by endorsing preparation of a non-event. Then again, reading the back-channel documents, we see FEMA taking on powers that appear to be not part of their original mandate. Remember, the EM in FEMA stands for Emergency Management. To most of us, it looks like they are seriously getting ready to manage a nation-wide emergency.

Link both their actions to those of simple local community preparations, like the Y2K information on the Los Angeles Fire Departments web-site. A fire department? Endorsing Y2K preparation? Most unexpected! Unless, of course, they are expecting some real problems in the home town arena that brought us all, the global coverage of the Los Angeles Riots and the Northridge earthquake. Coincidence? Doubt it.

There theres all the Federal stuff. Any time I see up-front happy faces backed up a by hidden flurry of activity, I question it. What about the actions over at the United Nations? What about the open Y2K preparation actions by the Canadian government? The quieter actions by the British government? Way too many puzzle pieces for a non- problem. The list goes on and on, everywhere you look these days. Then theres the computers themsleves, the embeddeded chips and the little glitches surfacing daily. Trend indicator? Are we looking at a potential trickle or a gusher? Time will tell. But I dont count on our government to tell. At least, directly. Too many special vested interests.

As to John Koskinen, hes sitting at Y2K government-hub central. What are you going to do if it is your mandate NOT to tank the economy. To be certain the economy keeps running smoothly so everybody has more preparation and fix-it and contingency planning time available, for as long as possible. Are you going to tell the truth? Supposing, he doesnt even KNOW what the truth is? No one knows, but the smoke signals are pretty ominous.

They, and we, are ALL walking a tightrope with this one. Its in the global, economic and personal interests of all of us to not snap the rope. All the while, we need to get ready for the biggest uncertainty to hit the planet in millennia. What a hire wire act! For people who prefer to walk with both feet on the ground.

The mission impossible objective, should we choose to accept the assignment, is how do you prepare a worlds people without collapsing a worlds economy? Dicey. To say the least.

Seemingly off topic, but Y2K pertinent, I found this interesting article on tightrope walking, called slack liners, and the incredible balance it takes to get to the other side.

URL: http://www.sfgate.com/ cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/1999/01/05/MN25395.DTL

Balance anyone?

Diane, wishing Y2K wasnt so, but all signs are a go.

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), January 10, 1999.

Sorry didnt link,

A Spiritual Journey on a Rope Slack liners balance atop line stretched high over Yosemite Valley

Nora Zamichow Tuesday, January 5, 1999 )1998 San Francisco Chronicle

URL: http://www.sfgate.com/ cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/1999/01/05/MN25395.DTL

Hate it when the newsmedia doesn't keep the same links working!!!

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), January 10, 1999.

Sheesh!! One more time. I CAN pull it up over there!!

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/ article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/1999/01/05/MN25395.DTL

If that still doesnt work go to S.F. Gate search and enter tightrope:

http://www.sfgate.com/search/< /a>

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), January 10, 1999.

Linda,

I've been reading about this stuff for about six months. I mean reading massive quantities.

The happy-face the government puts on compared to the doomsday others are talking about creates a real cognitive dissonance. I certainly had a hard time getting a handle on (perhaps still do). My psychology does not allow me to think the world is ending, so there you go, I'm biased, I admit it, I might pay for it, I'm just telling it like it is. But my brain does not allow me, based on what I've found in massive reading on the topic, to think it is NOT going to be a big deal, either.

The Governor of the State of Texas has a report online. It says in no uncertain terms that they cannot guarantee that utilities will be functional after Y2K, and outlines planning ideas for local government. There are notes and quotes from people in other organizations, including the CIA, worth thinking about. There are other countries which have been more forthright -- Great Britain and Canada for example.

If you read the executive orders that president Clinton has signed in the last two years -- many specifically dealing with emergency, martial law, and FEMA having control of everything (which he in turn would command) -- you would be even more depressed.

I'm not at all religious, but there's a great New Testament quote where Jesus, asked how something bad could be recognized if it was going to come looking good "in sheep's clothing," replied, "Ye shall know the tree by its fruit." It's good advice even in business or psychology. When you turn off the sound of what people SAY and you watch what people DO, you learn a lot more about them. In this case, if you watch what the government and big corps and utilities are doing and not doing, it becomes clear that something pretty serious is expected.

Linda, if you try to think about the whole world, reality, society, the government, people trapped in cities (I think, "New mothers with infants in downtown FW/Dallas, with nothing. Oh my God! I must go SAVE them!" Yeah, sure...), you will just freak out. You'll be angry, depressed, scared, and you'll get nothing done on behalf of yourself or YOUR loved ones. I know, I've been there.

Forget the big picture. You don't live in the big picture. You live in your little corner of the world. Just pick up and start learning about and doing anything you can to make your little corner a decent place to live for decent human beings. If Y2K isn't a disaster, you'll have a great garden, save tons on food, have plenty of water, and will be well prepared for storms or any other emergency. If it does, you'll get to live. It's one of those things that it's just not worth risking ignoring it and being wrong.

Once you get constructive plans going, you'll feel better. Depression is anger turned inward. Direct it outward toward action.

PJ Gaenir

-- PJ Gaenir (fire@zmatrix.com), January 10, 1999.

Welcome to the Twillight Zone, Linda.

This is exactly my Polyanna arguement (although officially I'm an Infomagic-type loony): I'm totally crazy and imagining everything, I will wake up from this nightmare in 2000, and my husband will pat me on the back and say "see honey? all's fine...there there...you'll come back to your senses very soon and be the wife I married."

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), January 10, 1999.

Such nice answers. At least I know I am not alone in the way I feel. From the other posts of today (other threads) I am picking up that a lot of us have doubts. The whole idea is just so hard to comprehend at times. I start thinking about those things I may not have this time next year and I realize I am so Grateful for them. We are not owed an easy comfortable life but yet we enjoy one. Sometimes when I think of all those starving in other countries or the people that are fighting for a way of life, I feel both fortunate and afraid. Who are we to be allowed such wealth that we can sit here and discuss storing food when others do not have enough right now. Sorry just rambling.

-- Linda A. (adahi@muhlon.com), January 10, 1999.

Actually, funny that Chris should say that. I was thinking the other day, you know how sometimes you wake up right after a dream, and you think about what the plot of the dream was, and you say, "That was so ludicrous! I can't believe that I could have even had a dream like that, since the whole premise on which it was based was so ludicrous!" Now, suppose that in 1990, you dreamed that it was 1999, and you were doing all kinds of stuff to prepare for when the electricity goes off, food and water get scarce, the banks fail, etc., etc. -- all because computer programmers used 2 digits rather than 4 to represent the year, and they never saw 2000 coming. Now, that would have been a wacky dream....

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), January 10, 1999.

Whenever I start to think, "Y2K can't be too bad, otherwise more 'authorities' would be sounding the alarm," I remind myself about comments made by one of our local TV meteorologists a few years ago. There was a hurricane in the Atlantic and the weather guy said something about, "You might want to change your beach plans for the weekend. . ." As it turned out, the hurricane changed course and there was no problem for the state. However, the weather guy apologized profusely for being wrong, making it plain that he had been flamed by advertisers because business was down and they blamed his warning. Since then, unless there're tidal waves demolishing beach cottages, there have been no negative weather forecasts for the beach--or the mountains, or the golf resorts, etc. It never rains at resorts any more, except for, "oh, perhaps a brief, light, refreshing shower." I had to forcibly restrain myself from calling this weather guy to get him to come and shovel his predicted "few flakes" off our driveway the last time we had snowfall.

Think about it--do the local banks, stockbrokers and real estate and mortage companies want the local media to spend much time deploring the shaky economy? Do the local power companies need the local media to cast aspersions on their ability to deliver post-Y2K, so that thousands of people tie up their phone lines, demanding an assurances? Do the local travel agencies want people to be advised to put their savings into Y2K supplies rather than a cruise? And so it goes. . .

-- anon (anon@spamproblem.com), January 11, 1999.

Your post anon, is an example of the reality I seek and get from this forum.

"I had to forcibly restrain myself from calling this weather guy to get him to come and shovel his predicted "few flakes" off our driveway the last time we had snowfall. "

Call him next time. The act of calling and venting off to him will reinforce your convictions of what is real.

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), January 11, 1999.

At the risk of alienating all the non-Christians, I did think that some folks might want to see that "tree and its fruit" image in its context:

"Watch out for false prophets. They come to you in sheep's clothing, but inwardly they are ferocious wolves. By their fruit you will recognize them. Do people pick grapes from thornbushes, or figs from thistles? Likewise every good tree bears good fruit, but a bad tree bears bad fruit. A good tree cannot bear bad fruit, and a bad tree cannot bear good fruit. Every tree that does not bear good fruit is cut down and thrown into the fire. Thus, by their fruit you will recognize them." -- Matthew 7:16-20 (NIV)

Jesus reuses the image a bit later (Matthew 12) in telling folks to watch how they talk to others, as words are like a tree's fruit and we'll be held accountable for "bad fruit."

Oh dear, now I've probably set off another "Fruitcake" thread. *sigh*

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.com), January 11, 1999.

Naw. Y2K Modern version...

Just spit out the bad seeds (terminator and hybridized) and plant the non-hybrid kind that give you good heirloom, edible plant growth, year after year.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), January 11, 1999.