Dow Jones at a record 9643 -- Unemployment down to 4.3% : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

The good news about the economy just keeps on going...

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record 9643 today.

Unemployment dropped to 4.3% in December, down from 4.6% in September.

How long can this go on? The stock market must believe that the next four years will be just as fat and prosperous as the last four years. It can't continue like this.

Just a few more stats from today, just for the historical record:

New York light sweet crude for February delivery -- $13.02

February gold -- $292.00

Euro/dollar -- 1.16

Dollar/yen -- 111.09

I expect the whole economic situation to be different 7 to 8 months from now. In the meantime, I'll be shopping for more water, tuna and toilet paper...

-- Kevin (, January 08, 1999


hmmm...Japan in meltdown...Russia defaulting...Brazil in bailout...Indonesia rioting...Korea crumbling...Venezuela reeling... looks like everybody thinks the US is a safe haven. And y2k is approaching. This is gonna be *way* interesting...

-- Andy (, January 08, 1999.

"It is said that the market cannot discount more than 6 months out. By this theory, y2k cannot be an influence until July or so."

"Historically, market investors were savy, well informed people. Now the masses are investing. Taking into account how the "sheeple" feel about y2k, it could account for the current exuberance. That's the only reason I can think of, other than US markets being the "last global heaven".

-- Chris (, January 06, 1999.

-- Andy (, January 08, 1999.

and to recap just how stupid people can be, lets not forget the great tulip panic: (from another author)

Before closing, let me impart a few incredible facts about Tulipomania, for those who aren't too familiar with it. It occurred in the mid 1600s in, you guessed it -- Holland. Galbraith expresses some wonder that the speculation of the times didn't settle on real estate or magnificent Dutch paintings, but on tulips: "Nothing more improbable ever contributed so wonderfully to the mass delusion here examined." The story is pretty much the same one as I described in my fictitious feather fable above. By 1636, a tulip bulb originally worth very little would fetch "a new carriage, two grey horses and a complete harness." This wasn't even the peak. These bulbs often weren't even planted -- just exchanged for higher and higher prices. Galbraith retells a painful story of a foreign visitor in a Dutchman's house mistaking a tulip bulb worth $25,000 to $50,000 for an onion and eating it. Ouch.

Fools are hereby advised to stop and smell the flowers, but never to get caught up in reckless financial speculation about flowers, penny stocks, beany babies and other improbabilities.

-- a (a@a.a), January 08, 1999.

937,000,000 million shares traded on the NYSE, heavy volume. Dow up 105 points. MORE losers than winners on the NYSE. Buyer beware.

-- Ray (, January 08, 1999.

Don't leave out that company growth rates are at there lowest since 1970 and price to earnings ratio is at its highest since 1929. I am going to short to the tune of 500 shares very soon. This time period in my humble opinion is the best chance in my lifetime to make a killing shorting the market. Something for everyone to take a look at. Mike

-- flierdude (, January 08, 1999.

Im betting that what we are seeing is CHINOOK winds not a spring thaw. If you know what I mean. ww


Heh...lots of people have lost their shirts shorting high-flying stocks. Yeah, the price may be way high now, but that don't mean it won't go way higher before it collapses, by which time you've lost everything. Bear in mind that Amazon did a billion dollars in sales last year, so they're a little more substantial than tulip bulbs. Their stock is high because everyone know ecommerce is the wave of the future...I don't expect stocks to really collapse until Y2K panic kicks in for real. Just my opinion.

-- Shimrod. (, January 09, 1999.

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