How Soon? : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Dow Jones hit 9500 today. People are recommending internet stocks, which are going to go down a long way and go down hard.

How soon before it all falls apart??

-- Leo (, January 06, 1999



-- Mike (, January 06, 1999.

Please explain why they will go down. What are you basing this on? Why won't the market go up to 10,000+. If we keep looking back on historical data, so far the market has defied historical data. I need something concrete to base my next move.

-- gambler (, January 06, 1999.

*hits Gambler with a block of concrete* Wake up! ;)

-- Notagambler (, January 06, 1999.

I would like to hear an answer to gamblers question, too.

-- Linda A. (, January 06, 1999.

It is my understanding that (historically) upturns in the market after a major downside correction lasts 65 days. Today was the 65th day.

MoVe Immediate

-- MVI (, January 06, 1999.

Waiting for a Fall?

It falls when an "event," that cannot be hidden, happens that shocks the psyche of investors, and rattles their confidence. Then it will slide. What is a small "event" and what constitutes a big one?

Ideas? April in New York? Clinton removed from office?

If the EURO has major bug problems will the U.S. stock market climb higher?

So many possibilities to choose from.


-- Diane J. Squire (, January 06, 1999.

Thanks Diane. Nobody here then should say get out or get in the stock market. Clinton's impeachment trial could go on for a long time or for a short time. But look, he was impeached! And what does the stock market do? It goes up! We were bombing Iraq, and the stock market goes up! Japan stocks take a dive and the NYSE market goes up! Who is manipulating this market? Are things really that good? Are we in our own minds thinking and believing in something that may not even happen? Are we betting on that Y2K will be a disaster, only to see when it arrives it is nothing but a small puff of wind? We all have a big stake in this, we have thouusands of dollars invested in goods, real estate, personal manhours contributed to community awareness, and all the mental fatigue we have gone through. It's all a gamble, but aren't we taking one giant step into the unknown and who will the losers be?

-- gambler (, January 06, 1999. and wait for Andy for your answer. Mike

-- flierdude (, January 06, 1999.

Sorry, its

-- flierdude (, January 06, 1999.

Can't he answer it here for everyone to read?

-- gambler (, January 06, 1999.

Could it be that the market is being driven upwards because of foreign investors? I mean isn't America the only place left where you can make a strong return on your dollar or yen or what ever! This is only an opinion however I feel that once the world has enough statistical data on y2k ( April 1, 99) things will change. Only time will tell. I would love to be in the market because I have my retirement sitting in money market accounts making squat but at least its safe! I hope

-- Tman (, January 07, 1999.

At the site I go to everyday for economic statistics, there is an article called "The Stock Market Revisted". Here are two quotes:

"The S&P 500 rose more than 25% in 1998, its fourth straight over 20% annual gain. Each new high occurs despite the fact that the stock market is substantially overvalued according to virtually all historical standards."


"Most notable is that the S&P 500 is currently trading at over 32 times four quarter trailing corporate earnings. This is more than double the average price-earnings ratio (PE) experienced since World War II."

The name of this current economic statistics site is "The Dismal Scientist". It's at:

-- Kevin (, January 07, 1999.

Go back and look at the GRAPHS of the Dow in 1929, and the graphs now. You have scaling differences but slope and dserivatives look REAL SIMILAR!!


ps Can you say "BUBBLE"?

-- Chuck, night driver (, January 07, 1999.

I wonder if anyone KNOWS that the mainframes on WALLSTREET CANNOT accept more thatn 4 digits ' 9999 '. IF a ' rollover ' occurs the computers will CRASH - REMEMBER ! no one thought the stock market would even go as high as 5000 !!


-- sean (, January 07, 1999.


I saw discussions of Wall Street's "Dow 10k" problem in 1997, so Wall Street is aware. But its scope is miniscule compared to Y2k. Anyone who's used the Nikkei average has had to accommodate values over 10,000 for several years.

-- No Spam Please (, January 07, 1999.

How bout a lil bit of common sense...??????

WHAT GOES UP, MUST come down......soon....

-- consumer (, January 07, 1999.


-- Tim (, January 07, 1999.


I just got a spam from a stockbrocker, LOLOLOL!!

Apparently, some folks aren't good at sensing sarcasm...

-- Tim (, January 07, 1999.

I just got a spam from a stockbroker!

-- No Spam Please (, January 07, 1999.

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