Rick, please clarify your interpretation of utility situation in the CBN interview.

While it is nearly impossible to realistically forecast the impact on utilities of supply-chain disruptions to items on which they depend, it appears that your estimate of two-week disruptions followed by recovery and then later capacity issues does not factor in significant supply-chain exposure (fuel delivery, notably), with exception of possible nuke plant shutdowns.

However, you do not appear to declare yourself (wisely, since speculation would be without evidence) on the level of recovery that will follow likely disruption. Still, reading between the lines, you seem to expect a lengthy period (six months? that is, between 1/1 and summer) of confusion and disruption, varying by region.

Help, please.

-- Anonymous, January 06, 1999

Answers

BigDog, see my answer to the "Confused once again" question, on the subject of those "two weeks". My take is that the two weeks was not an estimation of how long an outage would last, but of how long after Jan.1, 2000 it might take for severe problems to develop.

-- Anonymous, January 06, 1999

It's impossible to speculate on how severe or how long any power problems could be. Take a look at the entire section of the interview titled:

The bottom line: how will Y2K play out for power?

A lot of any Y2k/power scenario depends largely on how long it will take for the "fault propogation" to go exponential (if, in fact, it does at all). The longer it takes for this to happen, the longer that there would be problems in providing continuous, reliable power.

My answer was more directed in how long it's going to take Y2k power scenarios to play out, rather than how long it's going to last and/or recovery times.

-- Anonymous, January 06, 1999

Thanks to you both but let me follow up just a bit more if I could.

Rick, while it is difficult to speculate, it isn't "impossible" because we're all doing it willy-nilly, of course. You and Drew were speculating up the wazoo. And I don't mean to pick on your use of that word, but rather encourage you to, um, speculate just a bit further.

Granting your comment about fault-propagation (certainly central to meaningful estimates), I still read your interview as suggesting, at a minimum, a seriously unpredictable power grid situation for six months or so. When I integrate your, to me, surprising interview comments about the difficulties of going manual (though this had been independently shared with me by an industry pro) and, again, the extra-industry specific exposures, it strengthens the uncertainties (er, dangers)of this six-month window, no?

I'm not trying to get you to sign up for some specific calendar period of trouble or a specific prediction of intensity during 'x' period, but to fill in a bit more of the blanks, since we're now getting close enough that final preparation questions assume real urgency.

To wit: I'm thinking that if I knew you "personally" or were a family member, you would darn well be encouraging me to prepare for six months of (potentially intense) disruptions, as compared to, say a week or a month. Yes? No? Can you say without compromising your need to be publicly, what, cautious?

Once again, we're all speculating because, in the end, people's lives, not just their piece/peace of mind, may be at risk. So, I repeat:

Help, please? Bonnie, your further thoughts? Others?

-- Anonymous, January 06, 1999

BigDog, do you like stories? I hope so, because I'm going to tell you one. *wink and a smile*

Once upon a time, on PoppySeed Street, there was a guy (I'll call him Ernie) who had worked in various aspects of the Special Sprocket industry area for many years. He had lots of friends, acquaintances, and co-workers throughout this industry. He was respected and "in the loop". Then one day, to his great concern, he foresaw that this industry might have a serious problem looming up in its future. What to do? Not many other people knew about this problem, or paid attention to his warnings, so he studied up just to make sure he did understand the possible consequences this problem could cause.

When he was convinced the problem did exist and was serious, he started talking about it not only to industry insiders, but to others, such as customers of this industry. Some of those customers caught on to the problem pretty fast. So did some of the insiders, but by then time was getting short to do what needed to be done to fix this problem.

There came a day when everyone was clamoring to know just how bad this problem would be and how it could affect those customers. Ernie just didn't know for sure, but he suspected it could be pretty serious. Then Ernie got another problem, and it wasn't because he'd lost his rubber ducky again. If he told those customers it was going to be really bad, then his friends and co-workers would take that as an insult to their professionalism and either be super pissed and stop talking to him about how they were trying to solve the problem, or they'd believe him, too, and figure they might as well not work so hard to get the fixes done if it was all going to fall apart anyway. Ernie figured the most important thing was that his friends and co-workers keep working to get those fixes done as fast and as much as they could before time ran out. And he wanted to be able to continue to talk to them and find out how they were doing, right up until close to the problem's arrival.

So Ernie figured that the best thing might be to give some warnings to those customers, but not come right out and give them predictions he just couldn't be sure of. Ernie hoped those customers would take the bits of information, put them together on their own, and figure it was smart to prepare in whatever ways they could. You see, even IF Ernie really thought it was going to be BAD, he couldn't absolutely know for SURE. If he came out and said, "This problem is going to be BAD" and he was wrong, then he might have started a panic, the investors in Special Sprockets would sell their stock, making the problem even worse, and all Ernie's friends would hate him. The customers would hate him too, for predicting something was absolute if it didn't turn out to be.

So Ernie told Bert about the Problem and said, "This is what might happen, Bert, and you'll have to decide for yourself if you think you should prepare to keep yourself and that bottle cap collection of yours safe and warm."

The moral of the story is that Bert, not being as confused a person as some thought he was, remembered being taught by a Large Bird that it's "better to be safe than sorry". He even decided to stock up on some extra cookies - because you never know who might not have enough. And if the Problem didn't turn out to be so bad, Bert would not be mad at Ernie because he also knew from the snuffling elephant that we all have to do the best we can and take responsibility for our own decisions, whatever they are.

Bert's friend Bonnie decided to read as much as she could about the Problem, and came to her own conclusions. She bought a wood stove, and made other preparations. She decided she would keep preparing as she was able, until she heard a LOT of good news about the fixes being done. Bonnie also doesn't hold anybody else responsible for what she's decided. Her other friend Henny Penny reminded her about "doing it all yourself" and not depending on what others may think or do. Bonnie also thinks BigDog is plenty smart enough to figure out the answers and act on them, and she sends him all best wishes.

-- Anonymous, January 06, 1999

Way to go, Bonnie. Yer quite a gal ;) Thanks for the parable.

Jim Rose

-- Anonymous, January 06, 1999

To put the message another way:

"Do not be satisfied with hearsay or with tradition or with legendary lore or with what has come down in scriptures or with conjectures or with logical inference or with weighing evidence or with liking for a view after pondering over it or with someone else's ability or with the thought "The monk is our teacher." When you know in yourselves: "These things are wholesome, blameless, commended by the wise, and being adopted and put into effect they lead to welfare and happiness," then you should practice and abide in them...."

From "Buddhism Without Beliefs," by Stephen Batchelor (quoting the Buddha, in translation from Kalama Sutra)

-- Anonymous, January 07, 1999

Gee, Bonnie, where is the Grouch in your story. Never mind, I can guess (Y2K pollyanna)? Hey, Rick, you can't blame a dog for trying!

In my case, frozen in the wilds of the Catskills on a wonderful, small farm, able to make my primary living (so far) as a computer consultant (and yeah, I've worked on some of those huge mainframe projects though not recently), we are blessed with gravity water, wood heat, lots of propane and other things (including chickens, cows and a willingness to work hard and use manure on the garden).

Though we could have bought a big generator, we have opted with a few nerves for the above plus lots of old-fashioned lamps, lamp oil and kero. And powerful UPS systems for my computers et al plus a little solar for the laptop.

I say this only because, unlike Rick, I don't have any consulting exposures on this one and figure I should come clean on my own 'call' as of now. Yes, Rick has allowed us to connect the dots (and am I ever grateful for his yeoman work on Y2K over the past years). I did come clean on my "call" in the way I chose to connect the dots, no?

Hey, Bonnie, you really need to stop winking at me. My wife might object :-)

-- Anonymous, January 07, 1999

BigDog, I'd say you've connected your own dots very efficiently! I can't let you assume the Grouch is among the uninformed, however. He may be an anti-social curmudgeon, but he does know all about making do with basics and saving stuff that other people throw away. Why, I bet he's got dozens of old oil lamps stashed in that trashcan! He wouldn't part with them, of course, but he might grudgingly tell anybody interested in finding such things to check out his antique and junk shop friends who all belong to the never-throw-it-away club. Why, I ran across a local dealer who had a whole bucket of oil lamp wicks she'd collected over the years. Longer, sturdier, and pennies on the dollar compared to new ones. The Salvation Army has Grouch treasures, too!

Sadly, I must admit that there is a cousin to the Grinch on PoppySeed Street. Most people have never heard of him and that's the way he likes it. He's called the Grindle and just as his cousin trys to steal Christmas, the Grindle trys to steal curiosity and common sense. He hates those old maxims like, "Save for a rainy day." and he despises those preparing ants and plays with the grasshoppers when he's not chortling with the Year 2000 bugs. Information is the Grindle's enemy, along with thinking about being ready for possible problems, whether they happen or not. So thanks BigDog for helping to combat him!

Thanks also to Rick for putting up with a flight of fancy even though it is only marginally related to electric utility issues. I'll get back to focusing on that now.

And BigDog - tell your wife she can wink at my husband in return. Fair enough? :)

-- Anonymous, January 07, 1999

You folks are the best. If I gotta take the "medicine",(the news about it all), I'll take it from you.

I'm prepping for basic y2k troubles. By the way, I wore my seat belt while driving today, I also carried car insurance and I pay for my son's and my own health insurance. I wasn't in any accidents, thank you very much. I haven't use the health insurance much either. I don't feel stupid or silly for those actions, no regrets at all.

Something neat; If I don't need my basic preps next January, (fuel, food, candles, etc.), I can still use them! I wish my other insurance programs worked that way.

-- Anonymous, January 12, 1999