Yesterday, Paul Milne noted that we have 8000 electric utilities and virtually none are compliant. He pointed out that for them all to be fixed by 31 Dec 1999, we would have to hear that an average of 20 a day had finished. If none are done by 5 Jan 1999 (today), that means 120 need to report being done tomorrow just to return to the 20 per day pace.

Today Mr. Milne looks at the typical business situation in one of the Asian countries. Pay attention pollyannas:

Got Y2K problems? Firms in Taiwan not ready either

REUTERS

TAIPEI -- Some 400,000 small and medium-sized companies in Taiwan are not yet prepared for the impact of the millennium bug, the economics ministry said Sunday.

A survey by the ministry's Y2K office showed that of the nation's 1 million small and medium-sized firms, 40% have taken no action to reprogram their computer data systems, which might trigger a crash by 2000.

==================

Let me get out my calculator. Ok, I'm ready.

400,000 business have taken NO action at all. Less than 250 working days to go. My calculator says that they have to average 16,000 business becoming compliant EACH AND EVERY working day until Jan 1 2000.

SIXTEEN THOUSAND PER W/DAY

Now, let's complicate this a bit. Of the rest of the 600,000 businesses , how many of them have yet to achieve compliance? I will be wildly gracious to you. WILDLY gracious, and let you count HALF of them as being already compliant which is a laugh riot joke.

They would still have an additional 300,000 to become compliant. That would be added to the other 400,000 who are DOING NOTHING. So you would have to have 28,000 business Per day for the next 250 working days, become compliant.

TWENTY EIGHT THOUSAND PER DAY.

Tra-la-la Tra-la-la Don't worry, Be happy. 28,000 Taiwanese businesses, the bulk of which have not even started will magically, delisciously, become compliant.

And this is just Taiwan. Japan is in Worse shape, germany is In worse shape. Russia is in worse shape, China is in worse shape. The list is endless. South Korea, Brazil, France, Malaysia.

And what do we get in today's news? Buttheads like Declan McCullagh singing 'Told ya so Told ya so. No JoAnne effect."

http://www.joc.com/issues/990105/t1rade/e28377.htm -- Paul Milne If you live within five miles of a 7-11, you're toast.

-- a (a@a.a), January 05, 1999

Answers

Regard the statement:

400,000 business have taken NO action at all. Less than 250 working days to go. My calculator says that they have to average 16,000 business becoming compliant EACH AND EVERY working day until Jan 1 2000.

Uh, I hate to be a nit-picker, but as long as we're doing some math let's at least get the simple stuff right. The last time I checked, 400,000 divided by 250 was 1,600, not 16,000. Also (from later on) 700,000 (300,000 + 400,000) divided by 250 is 2,800, not 28,000 But plugging in the correct math and reducing the numbers by an entire order of magnitude does not exactly give me comfort that things are really OK now.. *sigh*

-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), January 06, 1999.

If it was just 160 perday it would be a disaster.

I've been saying this for ages - think globally, America does not exist in a vacuum, we do have to trade internationally.

Things look pretty grim.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 06, 1999.

The SEC has given the power plants a deadline: end of March (moved from the end of January). My brother, who manages one of the things and has been putting in 70-hr. weeks, says that the end of March- at least in their case- is still an awfully tight schedule. But the aim iIS to have any old systems remediated, new systems installed and internal testing completed, leaving the rest of the year for testing external connections. Sure hope they make it! But the point I am actually trying to make is that whether they manage to complete their testing or not, reports to that effect will not be spread neatly over the course of the year. They will more likely come sparingly and apply to much of the entire system at once.

-- Maria (encelia@mailexcite.com), January 06, 1999.

This is meaningless throwing around of numbers.

Firstly, if a large number of businesses are attempting to do something by a particular date, then a fraction of these are going to report that they've done it by that date. If the number starting is a large number, the fraction will be a smaller number (but probably also a large one). The size of the number is quite irrelegant - it's the value of the fraction that counts!

Secondly, it matters little how many organisations claim compliance. My guess is that few will bother, because the lawyers will advise that the risks of doing do and being wrong are greater than the risks of not doing so even if they are. The closer it gets to 1/1/2000, the stronger this argument gets.

Thirdly, not being compliant is very different to being doomed to complete failure. An organisation that's done competent triage and made sure that it's mission-critical stuff will fly will be unable to claim compliance, but may still be able to operate quite adequately.

Also claimed compliance may be meaningless. Indeed, if a company *knew* that it was utterly, completely, hopeless, it would have little to lose by lying. Personally, I'd trust an organisation that says "100% done, no problem" a lot LESS than one that was willing to discuss what was fixed, what wasn't, and how badly this would affect things. (Unfortunately the lawyers make this latter virtually impossible, and instead seek to impose a complete information blackout!)

Finally, I've pointed out before that the numerical majority of businesses are small ones, and that many of these are not dependant to any great extent on their computer. In Asia where people come cheap, the ependance is probably less than in the USA. Y2K is a big- business problem. This is not to belittle it, just again to point out the meaningless of the numbers. I know one company that's doubtless in the statistics as "unprepared" for a very simple reason: they have no computers (and better things to do with their time than try to answer a survey that assumed they did).

In short, all this rant says is that it's a big problem: about the only thing that Paul and myself agree on!

-- Nigel Arnot (nra@maxwell.ph.kcl.ac.uk), January 06, 1999.

Well, so now Milne is trying to weasel out of "THE US IS DOOMED". Now it is dropping to - "well OK - the US will come through but we are going to have terrible trouble because ASIA IS DOOMED". I guess we are all supposed to forget what he was saying six months ago.

And just a BTW - small business mostly uses canned, off the shelf stuff. Quickbooks and so on. How long does it take to change over from one canned set to another? If you are careful and select a replacement that supports the older file format - no more than a day - and that is if you have some trouble. Without trouble - a couple of hours. So 16,000 per day. At least half will still be using an abacus (no fooling, if you know how to use it an abacus is pretty fast - at least as fast as a 1950's mechanical/electric calculator with an expert operator - by actual test). That leaves 8000 per day. If an operator can average one per day - then we only need 8000 operators in Asia to do the entire job on time. NEWS FLASH - there are a lot more than 8000 experienced computer jockeys in Taiwan.

Milne just likes to take numbers and make things look as bad as possible. Big deal. I can take the same numbers and make things look rosy. The truth is somewhere in between.

Oh and the working day thing. I happen to know a couple of facts about the Taiwan work ethic. The average person holds nearly two jobs (1.8 or thereabouts) and works about 15 hrs per day. The place never shuts down - 7 days a week. This kind of blows out some of Milnes 'working day' numbers, don't you think?

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), January 06, 1999.

Paul Davis as a passenger on the Titanic:

alarmed passenger: We've hit an iceberg!
Paul Davis: It's OK, the captain has radioed for help.

alarmed passenger: We're taking on water!
Paul Davis: It's OK, the captain has every available man battening down hatches.

alarmed passenger: We're sinking!
Paul Davis: It's OK, the captain says this ship is unsinkable.

alarmed passenger: We don't have enough lifeboats!
Paul Davis: Lifeboats? We don't need no stinking lifeboats!


-- a (a@a.a), January 06, 1999.

Apart from Milne's spurious mathematical calculatings, he's got another problem in the wings.

If things are as bad as he claims then the handful of people that survive will hardly have it good. It wouldn't be long before Gary North has them rounded up and held in his 'Psuedo-Christian Re- education facility' where he can chant mantras all day long such as "Thou shalt eat thine red spring wheat with a heart of gratitude and not blaspheme by thy evil desiring of sweets and condiments".

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), January 06, 1999.

"Oh and the working day thing. I happen to know a couple of facts about the Taiwan work ethic. The average person holds nearly two jobs (1.8 or thereabouts) and works about 15 hrs per day. The place never shuts down - 7 days a week. This kind of blows out some of Milnes 'working day' numbers, don't you think?"

Uh, not exactly. I work three 12 hour shifts, a total of typically 36-40 hours per week. By the end of that 3rd day, my brain is zonked, I am physically exhausted, and my ability to function efficiently is seriously reduced.

In Taiwan, people may work on average 15 hours per day, but I sincerely doubt that anybody is working two jobs repairing code "15 hours per day", "7 days per week". As amazing as the Taiwan population may be, they are not supermen.

And, if anybody actually is, their error-rate must be a sight to behold! Anita E.

-- Anita Evangelista (ale@townsqr.com), January 06, 1999.

Paul Davis sez:

"Well, so now Milne is trying to weasel out of "THE US IS DOOMED". Now it is dropping to - "well OK - the US will come through but we are going to have terrible trouble because ASIA IS DOOMED". I guess we are all supposed to forget what he was saying six months ago."

I don't see it, Paul. Where is Milne implying that "the US will come through...?" It looks to me as though he's simply taking a little vacation in Taiwan...

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), January 06, 1999.

uh, Paul, I think your presence is requested at

A Challenge - anyone care to take it up? John Howard, Paul Davis, anyone?

What's wrong? Cat got your tongue?

-- a (a@a.a), January 06, 1999.

Well, so now Milne is trying to weasel out of "THE US IS DOOMED". Now
it is dropping to - "well OK - the US will come through but we are
going to have terrible trouble because ASIA IS DOOMED". I guess we
are all supposed to forget what he was saying six months ago.

Paul, I think that you are really going off the deep end here. I don't see Milne's comments on Taiwan as in any way, shape, or form, somehow softening anything that he has ever said about the U.S. His recent comments on Taiwan come across to me more like "icing on the cake", if you will.

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), January 06, 1999.

The arithmetic being presented is about as reasonable as saying that there are 100,000,000 million people that need to file their income tax returns by April 15 - 100 days from now. That means that 1,000,000 people need to file today and each and every day forward or we'll never make it. Well, it so happens that we each set our own schedule to finish our tax returns before April 15 - most of them get delayed until close to the deadline.

Since all these utilities are independent, they could all finish in December and still make it.

Not that I don't think there could be some problems - just that that kind of math is illogical.

-- Dan Hunt (dhunt@hostscorp.com), January 06, 1999.

Dont be so simplistic Dan. Of course he doesn't mean there will be a uniform number of completions each day of this year. Its a device to get people like you to understand the numbers of non-compliant entities that exist today, 6 January, 1999. And that virtually none seem to be coming forward saying they are done.

Pretty soon now, people like Dan will begin to understand what Gary North meant a year ago when he said "y2k is systemic. It can't be fixed"

-- a (a@a.a), January 06, 1999.

a., I believe that if we didn't all jump so hard on people we think don't get it as quickly as we'd like but instead offered a more civilized explanation/clarification, they'd get it better and faster.

-- Just a thought (MissManners@net.com), January 06, 1999.

Yes, That is why Yourden got through to me and Milne never would have. Both give me facts, but Yourden allows me to come to my own conclusions, while Milne delivers what he feels are the obviously only possible conclusions with the facts. The facts may be equally valid, but that old stubborn streak resists having anything predigested shoved down my throat or being made to feel a fool for somehow missing the point.

-- Maria (encelia@mailexcite.com), January 07, 1999.

I think everyone is feeling the pressure of it now being 1999! I know that I am losing patience with DGIs, and I have always considered myself to be a very cool headed, patient person.

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), January 07, 1999.

a, I got it a long time ago. I've been programming since 1961. My family gets it. We are just in closing of our new acreage and about to sell our current home. I've led several discussion groups in various cities. I convinced my daughter's financial advisory company to prepare plans for their clients advising them to take appropriate actions with their investments. My son has ordered a diesel generator. I've remediated the programs in my company personally. We have taken various other preparatory steps. I've been so busy preparing recently that I haven't had time to be a regular contributor on this forum as I was for many months.

But I have found that there are some arguments that are convincing and others that sound like hysteria and don't do any good. And the way this one was presented I didn't think would help.

-- Dan Hunt (dhunt@hostscorp.com), January 07, 1999.

Dan: Ok, you have a point. And you are obviously well prepared. But, like Jack said, its really late in the game to be still having to butt heads with DGIs and pollyannas. None of the approaches to getting through to these people seems to work.

6 months ago I thought it would not be as bad as Milne was saying. Now my only doubt is if it will be worse.

-- a (a@a.a), January 07, 1999.