The Gallup Poll folks did a survey on the public's opinion of Y2K in December. I found a link to the poll, and there are quite a few questions that were asked (plus the results, of course) that you don't see when news organizations summarize the findings.

There may be clues here as to how the public will react later in 1999. For example, it's always been my observation that taking money out of the bank is what JGI's (Just Getting It's) consider personal preparation to be.

The complete poll results are at:

http://www.gallup.com/POLL_ARCHIVES/9812y2k.htm

"Americans and the Y2K Millennium Computer Bug" Dec. 19-20, 1998

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), January 05, 1999

Answers

Thanks for the poll. To say I was amazed is an understatement. It's almost enough to make me worry.

-- gilda jessie (jess@listbot.com), January 05, 1999.

If 16% plan to withdraw ALL their money from the bank, and 31% plan to withdraw a large amount of cash... obviously there isn't enough cash for this. This makes bank runs as close to a certainty as you can get. Any guesses on when they'll start?

-- Ned (entaylor@cloudnet.com), January 05, 1999.

The confidence in government, both at local and federal levels, is mind-boggling. It is truly a case of people lined up ready to follow the lead sheep off the cliff.

-- Sara Nealy (saran@ptd.net), January 05, 1999.

These less than highly publicized stats might explain why we are suddenly seeing more Y2K press of a unfoundedly optimistic tone.

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), January 05, 1999.

Kevin,

Good find!! You da hotlinks man! Was wondering what questions were being asked in those statistically accurate polls. Maybe theyll be doing this on a monthly basis. Aprils poll should be informative.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), January 05, 1999.

What people say they will do, and what they will do, are worlds apart. I taught martial arts for 8 years. Students would come up to me on the first night and say, "I want to be a 'black belt'". Meaning they wanted to be of a black belt rank. They had NO intention of earning one. After the first class, I would never see them again. Talk is cheap, these kind of polls are worthless.

-- curtis schalek (schale1@ibm.net), January 05, 1999.

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."

- Benjamin Disraeli

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-- Hardliner (searcher@internet.com), January 05, 1999.

Look again at the answers - but add together the "major impact" + "minor impact/inconveniences" for each question.

Notice that 80% think there will be "at least" some sort of significant impact - personally, socially, and economically - from year 2000 problems. If a recession is (I think) a 0-2% loss in economic strength (no growth, or very small loss), and a depression is a 3% drop, then losing "several weeks" (80 % think this much - or more - will be affected) will be a 5-10% loss in productive time.

Ouch. Some "minor impact."

It's important to keep in mind that "minor problems" are in the mind of the reporter: and the editor who writes the headline saying "Only 16% think Y2K will be a major impact" would be better saying: "Only 10% think Y2K will have no impact."

Also: it doesn't matter what people think - failures will happen unless computers are re-programmed, regardless of people think, or what politicians say.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), January 05, 1999.

Here's an article in USA Today I find interesting regarding their polls and that it seems to show that people's confidence that things will be fixed in time is rising, "even as they continue to prepare for the worse." Note especially Koskinen's comment.

Y2K bug fears subsiding, poll shows Fears of the Year 2000 computer bug have eased among the American public even as many say they will prepare for the worst. A USA TODAY/National Science Foundation poll finds that 34% expect ''major problems'' in 2000, when many computers may be unable to interpret a date ending in two zeroes. But that number is down from 48% in June who anticipated major problems. ''It reflects some underlying confidence that we are working the problem,'' says John Koskinen, who chairs the federal Council on Year 2000 Conversion. ''But we need to get hard information out there so people can get a handle on where the real risks are.'' Although fears of a calamity have subsided, a full 85% anticipate at least ''minor problems.'' In fact, 26% say they intend to stockpile food and water; 31% intend to set aside a large amount of cash. And almost half say they wouldn't fly on or around Jan. 1, 2000. Experts say reservations and flight schedules may be chaotic at that time. But with 79% saying they have heard ''some or a great deal'' about Y2K, some complacency is evident: 54% agree with the statement, ''Y2K will cause only minor disruptions and inconveniences.'' 61% say they expect either no problems or only minor problems, up from 48% in June. 30% expect ''no problems at all'' will affect them ''personally,'' up from 4% in June. ''I don't think they know enough about it to make that judgment,'' says Rep. Steve Horn, R-Calif., who has issued quarterly report cards on the federal government's Y2K progress. ''What worries us most is the power grid. . . . A power blackout (in some areas) is entirely possible.'' The nationwide poll of 1,032 adults by the Gallup Organization Dec. 9-13 has a margin of error of 3 percentage points. ''I'm not encouraged by this polling result,'' says Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., co-chair of the Senate Special Committee on Year 2000. ''You can't tell this story in a sound bite, and unless I say a plane is going to crash . . . (Y2K) kind of glazes the eyes.''

http://www.usatoday.c om/news/ndswed10.htm

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), January 05, 1999.

Ouch, sorry for the bunched-up article, this forum is so quirky in the way it accepts html :-( I'll let you click on the hotlink instead of redoing it.

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), January 05, 1999.

If truth were subject to majority vote, then the earth would still be flat.

-- dave (wootendave@hotmail.com), January 05, 1999.

Robert A. Cooke, PE!!!

Welcome back!!!

-- margie mason (mar3mike@aol.com), January 05, 1999.