Good Morning Squire,

According to an article in the January Issue of Vanity Fair only 13% of IT Executives have taken any personal precautions to prepare them or their families for post 1/1/00 Y2K shortages.

Have a Nice Day

-- Jimmy Bagga Doughnuts (jim1bets@worldnet.att.net), January 03, 1999

Answers

Opinion polls are certainly useful and interesting, but they don't necessarily indicate that the survey audience is right or wrong -- even if it's a supposedly knowledgeable audience of "subject matter experts."

It's worth keeping in mind that at a certain point in time, 99% of the human race was absolutely convinced that the earth was flat, and that the sun revolved around the earth. To suggest otherwise was an unpopular act, and even ran the risk of getting oneself burned at the stake.

The issue of whether Y2K is -- or could possibly be -- a phenomenon beyond the ability of optimistic managers and politicians to solve, may turn out to be one of those so-called "paradigm shifts." For a fascinating discussion of how paradigm shifts take place, take a look at Thomas Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. It was written back in the early 1970s, and is probably available from Amazon and other such places.

A more recent example: Peter Drucker likes to point out that his first published paper, which was widely lauded as being a brilliant piece of work, provided a long, detailed "proof" of why the stock market could not possibly crash. It was published on Oct 15, 1929.

None of this necessarily means that I'm right or wrong about my pessimistic assessment of Y2K. We'll know soon enough, and it will be interesting at that point to find out why the optimists were right or wrong, and why the pessimists were right or wrong.

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), January 04, 1999.

The 25 Rules of Disinformation

Rule number 13:

Alice in Wonderland Logic. Avoid discussion of the issues by reasoning backwards with an apparent deductive logic in a way that forbears any actual material fact.

MoVe Immediate

-- MVI (vtoc@aol.com), January 03, 1999.

>According to an article in the January Issue of Vanity Fair only 13% of IT Executives have taken any personal precautions to prepare them or their families for post 1/1/00 Y2K shortages.<

And your point is?

Cary

-- Cary Mc from Tx (Caretha@compuserve.com), January 03, 1999.

I didn't know you could read, Jimmy.

-- Dave (dave22@concentric.net), January 03, 1999.

::::Johnny Carson impersonation::::

"There's such a bigh hole in that argument that....."

-- Tim (pixmo@davenport.edu), January 03, 1999.

According to an article in the January Issue of Vanity Fair only 13% of IT Executives have [ADMITTED TO HAVING]taken any personal precautions to prepare them or their families for post 1/1/00 Y2K shortages.

That would have been a more accurate way of expressing that statement.

Hallyx

"Tell the truth and run."---George Seldes

-- Hallyx (Hallyx@aol.com), January 03, 1999.

Be sure to catch the next exciting installment in the Bagga Saga: The Milne Factor Strikes Back....Coming Soon to A Thread Near You.

-- INVAR (gundark@aol.com), January 03, 1999.

I got a different impression:

'Computer experts are also getting ready. A recent survey of technology executives found that 10 percent of them planned to stockpile canned goods, 11 percent were preparing to buy generators and woodstoves, and 13 percent were going to purchase "alarm Systems, fencing, and firearms."'

I have not seen the wording of the survey, but I suspect that the numbers are cumulative, i.e, 34% plus whatever percentage checked off other options listed in the survey. In other words, I would expect that someone who would include a generator in their preparations, would also include food, as would someone who whould include alarm systems. etc.

Jerry B

Life is short, eat desert first

-- Jerry Brennan (skeptic76@erols.com), January 03, 1999.

66% of IT executives think YourDoneIV is nuts

34% of IT executives are nuts

-- Jimmy Bagga Doughnuts (jim1bets@excite.com), January 03, 1999.

Have you managed to light one yet James or are you still trying?

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 03, 1999.

In a recent poll 61% of IT professionals are intending to pull their money out of banks before y2k hits.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 03, 1999.

Jimmy Fulla Cowbiscuits--

Whats your point?

-- c (c@c.c), January 03, 1999.

>66% of IT executives think YourDoneIV is nuts 34% of IT executives are nuts <

That's your point? And you have actual data to back this up? I don't think so, but I'd be willing to listen if you could post it. Oherwise, you're no better than your opinion....and you know what they say about opinions, everyone has one of those and an a**hole too.

Cary

-- Cary Mc from Tx (Caretha@compuserve.com), January 03, 1999.

Jimmy, truth remins truth regardless of the number of people who know or believe it. It is not destroyed by popular opinion. I really wish whoever hired you to "balance" this forum would at least select a more worthy opponent to the views presented here. Please, give us optimism based on solid evidence and well thought out arguments. Your most sensitive hot button seems to involve the banking system, so I presume you are funded by some entity connected to that enterprise.

-- Ann Fisher (zyax55b@prodigy.com), January 03, 1999.

Ann - right on - he is pretty lame you havta admit, maybe Walmart??? no - too upmarket - K-Tel???

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 04, 1999.

Well said Ann. Truth is truth no matter what people say it is; reality is (and "is" means "is") no matter what Clinton says about it; facts are real and exist, no matter what the media make them look to be; the sky is blue even if you wish it to be green.

The only way you'll ever find the truth is when you start thinking for yourself and not let others do the thinking for you. Thinking is hard work, it involves a lot of research and analysis on your part. Who is Vanity Fair to think for you? How did you come to think that only 13% of IT people were preparing? Why did you think that? What difference 13% of IT's preparing would make on the facts of Y2K consequences? Who is John Galt? ;-)

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), January 04, 1999.

Chris, just THINK about the survey. THINK about why you listen to EY who is supposedly a IT professional but doubt any other IT professional who doesn't agree. THINK about the fact that it is the majority who do not agree. You may want to THINK TWICE about knocking the Vanity Fair article. It's very pro doomsday. Selling a lot of Ed books.

Chris, do you THINK I'm too deep for this forum?

-- Jimmy Bagga Doughnuts (jim1bets@excite.com), January 04, 1999.

I just read this in a New Mexico newspaper online. The article said you are changing your tune about Y2K. Care to comment Ed/

"Even Taos resident Ed Yourdon, the computer guru and self-proclaimed pessimist who wrote Time Bomb 2000, says he doesn't believe the problem will trigger a descent into the Dark Ages. "It is going to be noticeable, but it's not going to be the end of Western civilization," he said."

-- Dave (dave22@concentric.net), January 04, 1999.

Jimmy, I don't know wether you're too deep for this forum ("deep" you certainly are, but in what sense and who's?), but I do know that you don't think the way I do. And because we don't think the same, we see reality differently. So, we could argue back and forth until the cows come home.

I'll attempt to reply to your post anyway, for my own benefit, as it forces me to sharpen my thinking.

"Chris, just THINK about the survey."

The VF survey to me represents only one poll, out of many on IT professionals who are preparing for Y2K in some way, at different levels. The different preparation levels among them reflect the similar differences among people in this forum; some are more optimistic than others, some are "doomsayer" or worse case scenario believers, some are Polyannas, bump in the road types. IT professionals are humans like non-IT's, they are not the final say, the last buck, the gods of all knowledge. They have same quirks in mental ability, philosophy of life, differences in amount of experience in their field, etc. Some have the ability to know that they can't know what the true consequences will be, but know that it will change the world and it will never be the same as we know it now .

THINK about why you listen to EY who is supposedly a IT professional but doubt any other IT professional who doesn't agree."

Ed Yourdon, as all other IT professionals, does not have the final answer. He is, on the other hand, a man who's thinking I respect, because he seems firmly planted in reality,my reality, and his thinking is logical to me. His input on Y2K is only one of many others I also respect and compare with. Because I've chosen his forum to post doesn't mean I am a mindless follower of his. It only means that I enjoy and respect the thinking of many other posters on this forum.

"THINK about the fact that it is the majority who do not agree."

This statement to me is illogical. As Ed just said above, the majority of people once thought the earth was flat, and those who thought otherwise were procecuted. Even closer to our time, 150 years ago the majority of doctors thought that "blood-letting" could cure many diseases, when in fact it speeded the death of the patient. Their failures were always attributed to the victim's own fault in one way or another. Until one doctor who didn't think like the majority came along and discovered penicilin.

"You may want to THINK TWICE about knocking the Vanity Fair article. It's very pro doomsday. Selling a lot of Ed books." I haven't read the VF article, only snipets posted by other forum members, and I didn't knock it down. I simply asked a simple question of you "who is Vanity Fair to do the thinking for you?". I could have said "who is Ed Yourdon to do the thinking for you?" and I would have meant the same thing. I asked that, because you seem to have accepted, even latched on, without thinking, that "only 13% of IT Executives have taken any personal precautions to prepare them or their families for post 1/1/00 Y2K shortages" as if this was the proof to yourself that there was nothing to worry about and the rest of us are idiots doomsayers.

That Ed is making money on selling his book means only one thing to me; that that is the natural consequences of writing a book and publishing it. School textbooks make a profit to the writers, don't they? Yet you still buy them? Why? I myself didn't buy Ed's book, because by the time I became aware of this book, I was already well aware of Y2K and deep into my own personal research. But I did, and will continue, recommend it to people not yet aware, because I've heard good reviews and recommendations from people on this and other forums who's thinking I respect. So I'm glad VF recommends it too.

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), January 04, 1999.

Jimmy, 92% of people on this forum think you are nuts.

Oh, and-- welcome back, Chris!

-- Leo (lchampion@ozemail.com.au), January 04, 1999.

Anybody notice EY comes off the mountain an awful lot for JBD as opposed to everyone else, especially the butt kissers. I think I'm selling books with my provocative prose. Somebody accused me of picking up a check from Wal-Mart for balancing this forum. Maybe I'm shilling for EY.

Have a Nice Day.

BTW jim1bets has Tennessee large so even Squire can't de-mello the doughnut dude. Only 2nd quartet though

-- Jimmy Bagga Doughnuts (jim1bets@excite.com), January 04, 1999.