"Bad news, BAD. Bad things not happen. This America. Bad things not happen in America. "greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
From csy2k - a dose of reality, folks....... . . . .
From GN's site:
Comment: People reject bad news. They assume that bad events are abnormal and good events are normal. They think they deserve good news. So, they reject bad news. They put it out of their minds. They get angry at anyone who sells warnings of bad times ahead. As the prime law of infomercials says: "You can't sell prevention. You can only sell cures."
For three decades, 1965 to 1995, senior men in the IT deparments feared telling senior management that a disaster was coming in 2000. They knew what the reactions would be. "That's crazy." "We'll wait until 1998 to fix it." "You're fired."
A few companies got started in 1995. Citibank did. Chase Manhattan Bank did. Neither is compliant today. 1995 was too late.
If it was too late for the banking system, it's too late for everything else.
If the phone companies go down, the banks go down, and so do the power companies. The phone companies are far behind the banks, according to this report.
Most companies have deferrred implementing a multimillion dollar repair.
Now, having waited, it's too late. Corporate officers are now admitting that some processes won't be compliant. Which ones, they refuse to say. Later this year, insider selling of corporate shares will begin. That will be the sign that the end of an era is upon us.
You have a head start. Don't lose it. It's almost gone.
This is from FOX MARKET WIRE (Jan. 2).
* * * * * * * * * *
The new millennium and its much-anticipated computer bug is still a year away but many U.S. companies are already throwing in the towel.
They admit they won't be ready.
Companies are beginning to make such frank statements on Y2K risks to cover themselves against possible securities litigation, analysts said. The statements also provide ammunition for their own suits.
Companies such as Chevron Corp. and AT&T Corp. say their systems may be vulnerable to significant failures as they grapple with the Year 2000 date change. McDonald's Corp. and DuPont Co. are more confident their machines can handle the date change. They are less sure about those of suppliers and local governments. . . .
"The fundamental cost of Y2K is the risk of business interruption,'' said Jeff Ray, a vice president at Compuware Corp., a leading software testing company.
Companies have still not done most of the tedious and costly work to fix Year 2000 computer bugs.
"It appears that over half the work will be crammed into 1999,'' said Steven Hock, chief executive of research company Triaxsys Research LLC. . . .
As companies realize they and their partners may not achieve full compliance, they are planning back-up systems and looking for alternate vendors. . . .
The technologically complex telecoms sector ranks dead last among all other industries in progress toward completion of Y2K projects, according to Triaxsys. Also behind are the utilities industry and the energy sector. . . .
Industries leading the race are banking, securities and insurance, all of which began looking at Y2K up to 10 years ago largely because of regulatory requirements. Most telecom companies only began looking at the issue two to three years ago. . . .
From the above article , you can see that the work is not getting done, it has not been done and it will not be done, in time.
However, we have relative newcomers like Preston Crawford and Reg Smith and ZB who have read, oh, I'd say about one one thousandth as much about Y2K as some of us. Are they entitled to their opinions, yes. We are not discussing that 'entitlement'. We are discussing the veracity of the opinions. They can not discuss the issues, because the conclusion is bad news. In their neanderthal minds they say, "Good news GOOD, Bad news, BAD. Bad things not happen. This America. Bad things not happen in America. People who say bad things happen, "BAD" people!"
I understand their 'anger and their hatred and their intolerance' of the truth.
More than a year and a half ago, I said that they were not moving fast enough. They said they were 'serious'. Yet the bulk of the Fortune 500 had not even finished assesments until THIS year. The federal government had a budget of $1 billion dollars. I laughed at that. Yet these were seasoned proffessionals. EXPERIENCED and COMPETENT professionals. They budgeted $1 billion for 75,000 systems. Do the math. I sat down with a piece of paper with my nine year old sona nd we went through it so that he would understand. He laughed and said that there was not even close to enough money to do even a quarter of the systems . Boy, was he right. A nine year old kid. Who was I to suggest that they were so wildly off base? Now, they have budgeted $6.5 Billion for only ten percent of the original number of sytems. In other words, the original budget should have been about 65 times bigger. They are off by a magnitude of 65+ . These allegedly competent and responsible and serious people were off by a factor of 65. Imagine how competent you would think your mechanic was if he told you your transmission would cost you $32,500 dollars instead of the original $500, because that is the degree of their error in real world terms. Mind boggling isn't it? But the pollyannas do not care. They march on. Bad things Not happen in America. The one profession with about the WORST track record of performance and they under budget by a factor of 65, they start years too late, don't staff up, miss schedules, slip milestones, fake SEC reports, lie to customers/vendors, but everything will muddle through.
A year ago they all swore they would be done by December 31 1998. They had a whole year and they ridiculed anyone who said otherwise. "Who are you to say that we can not get the coding done in a whole year? Why you intolerat 'hater'. You just 'want' us to fail, don't you?" No, it is just plain common sense in an industry that can never ever meet its schedules and obligations on an historical basis, to believe they will this time either. And they have not. Over half of all small and medium sized business has not yet begun. Over 40% of big business has not yet spent half their proposed budgets, and 30% of them hald spent less than 25% of their budgets. This is not getting the job done. This is MANIFEST failure in an industry that can not pull from behind at this late date. Throwing money at it does not help. Adding people makes it worse.
All of these companies that a year ago scoff at the notion that they wouldn't be done by the ned of '98 are NOWHERE in sight. Where are they all? Supposedly thousands of them. Where are all the announcements? None to be heard. Pollyannas just roll along. "No bad thing happen here."
We all know that testing is the most time consuming, costly and single most important part of the job. As a whole, that point has not yet been even close to reached. But, pollyannas who ought to know better, ignore this. At very best errors wil be introduced as coding proceeds and not even close to all the bugs will be found. Even AFTER code remediation, the code is NOT remediated. It is only half done. It is still broken. Right now, better than 90% of all the systems and code in the world are still broken. Do you realize that?
Embedded systems. A problem equal to or greater than mainstream It problems. Yet, overall, less than 2% of all It money has gone to it. 1/50th of the money for a problem of equal or greater magnitude. Do you see a problem there? Not if you are a pollyanna, you don't.
But, the pollyannas blithely ignore this chanting their "This not happen here," mantra. We're American! We'll fix it in time. But there is one thing that they forget. If we fix these thing by virtue of our being 'Americans' then how does the rest of the world do it, not being Americans? Do the Pakistanis have an equivalent of the "Seventh Cavalry"? Is there a Zimbabwaian John Wayne? Nope. Most of the code is out there in the rest of the world and it is not getting fixed. Just because you are sitting in a diner in Terra Haute drinking a cup of coffee, do not think for a minute that you would be drinking it if it were not for the technology to get it here from Columbia and to have it processed and marketed and delivered to you.
Japan is more than TWO YEARS behind us in remediation. Please say that to yourself OUT LOUD. Go ahead, say it. No. I didn't hear you. TWO YEARS! That's better. Japan, net impoter of food. Japan imports 100% percent of its energy, Coal, Oil etc etc. Germany gets forty percent of its power from Russia. Russia has ZERO Y2K budget. China BEGAN electric utility remediation a month and a half ago. A problem that NOT ONE U.S. utility has acomplished in YEARS. And we have over 8,000 of them. Brazil? Any south American or Central American country? All toast. Everyone of them. OPEC nations? All have their heads in the sand. Literally. All the eastern European countries, Balkan states etc.., Gone. France has not even passed the awareness stage yet.
You see, none of the code in this country makes a whole lot of difference as far as the world's economy goes. Our economic well being is inextricably linked, now, with the rest of the world. We used to be an industrial power. Now, we are a 'service' based economy. We do not manufacture what we use. We import it. Not for much longer.
But, it is more comfortable for the pollyannas to ignore all this and rely on their standard childishness. If you point out 'bad' consequences, then you 'must' have a malevolent intent. No one would talk about bad things that could happen unless they 'wanted' those things to happen. They must be prejudiced or intolerant or haters of all that is good and noble and clean or thrifty, brave and reverent.
Yes sir, if you think that not enough has been done to avoid catastrophe,why, you are nothing more than a bigotted narrow minded damnable misanthrope. Why we oughtta string 'em up!!!!! Don't hey know that chuildren will get hurt and that old ladies in nursing homes will be caught without help and that there are hundreds of millions of people that can not do anything to prepare??? Why those narrow minded haters of innocent Americans!!!
This is all just pure bullcrap and nonsense, because the Pollyannas can not answer the issues. The FACTS and EVIDENCE are on the table. Not even a tiny portion of the big companies, the Fortune 1000 companies have gotten even close to finnishing thier code yet alone started full integrated test. And the majority of small to medium sized companies have not yet started. And the situation with the 75% of the code outside this country is even worse.
Nothing that is presented to the pollyannas will cause them to reconsider. they will not do anything to substantially prepare. They will not get their families out of cities surrounded by thousands if not hundreds of thousands of people who are not prepared. They rely on the fact that EVEN if it gets bad, people will come out smiling, hold hands and help each other through a time of trouble.
While some folks do help others on a very minimum and highly localized scale, historically, this has never happened over countries and continents. One people wars against another. When they do not have what they want or need, to live, one group attacks another.
Not even fractionally enough to complete remediation has been accomplished. The remediation has already failed. It failed when they did not start early enough, budget enough and assign enough competent people. It was over when they said they would be done coding and beginning testing as of yesterday. They failed every milestone along the way. Now they are all saying that they will meet the march deadline. Some will. The overall majority will not. The same thing will happen as March turns into June and june turns into december. The very same way that pollyannas looked forward to Dec 31 1998 when it was Jan 1998, is the same way that they will look forward to Dec 31 1999 wnen it is Dec 30 1999. They will still believe there is enough time.
And on that day, they will still have no evidence of any substantial amount being done. On Dec 1 1999, Triaxsys will put out a study showing that less than half of all firms have finished coding, much less testing, and the pollyannas will STILL think it will be OK. Peter de Jager will come out and say that while it is not common knowledge, testing *CAN* be done properly by competent people in less than thirty days. There *is* still enough time, contrary to what the doom and gloomers say. And Ed Yardeni will again give us the grim news that we might *Choke* have as much as .05% shaved off the GDP based upon absolutely no econometric model of which *he* is aware.
These are the pollyannas. No bad thing will happen. 'disruption', possible. 'dislocation' possible. 'Temporary glitch', yessir. But, no bad thing will happen. Brown out, yup, rolling blackout, yup. Nothing worse than that.
None of the code worth mentioning is ready, but nothing bad will happen. just remember the secret pollyanna response. That way you will not have to waste time thinking up response to the issues.
"You are intolerant and you hate other people. You are obviously predjudiced and a bigot. You hate society and all people."
See how easy that was. Now you don't have to know any more. Just copy that to your clip-board so that you can paste it for further use when you resond to the evidence and the facts.
We will always have the prestons, and the reg's and the other Pollyannas. Peoplewho have done no research at all. People in possession of few of the facts. And they will snip out the whole of this post and childishly harrague on and on about one line out of context.
And if you are the average newsgroup reader, then you will believe them. Because the average reader is an ignorant rube who could not think their way out of a wet paper bag.
No skin off my nose. I'm ready.
-- Paul Milne
If you live within five miles of a 7-11, you're toast.
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 03, 1999
My coworker was talking to a builder here in Northern Arizonia about a house he had built for some "computer nut" way out in the toolies. When asked why the guy was a "nut" the builder responded, "the guy quit a job making over $120K per year and moved his wife and three kids up here because of some y2k thing" My buddy asked,"Well whats your take on this y2k thing?" The builder responded, "I live in America, I don't have to worry about that kinda sh*t!" My buddy laughed inside and said, "You know something, your'e right." God bless America.
We are trying to track down the "computer nut", so we can talk with him.
-- Bill (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 03, 1999.
Andy, thanks for sharing Milne's thoughts.
Milne, good job. Powerful, yet not a single butthead uttered!
-- MVI (email@example.com), January 03, 1999.
From the Washington Post dated 01/01/99:
"AT&T Corp., the nation's largest long-distance carrier, says that by today it will have fixed and tested all of its systems that handle phone calls and data transmissions. The company plans to spend this year conducting additional tests with local phone companies, such as Bell Atlantic Corp., which provides service in the Washington area."
"Even if unforeseen glitches pop up next year, A. John Pasqua, AT&T's Y2K czar, predicts that disruptions likely will be limited to billing foul-ups and network-management problems, but won't affect consumers' ability to receive or make phone calls. "Our basic telephone systems don't need to know the year to operate properly," Pasqua said."
* * * * * * * * * *
From the Fox market wire site dated 01/02/99:
"Companies such as Chevron Corp. and AT&T Corp. say their systems may be vulnerable to significant failures as they grapple with the Year 2000 date change. McDonald's Corp. and DuPont Co. are more confident their machines can handle the date change. They are less sure about those of suppliers and local governments"
"AT&T has acknowledged the potential for failure across its systems and has cranked up Year 2000 spending by more than 50 percent."
"While disclosing such problems in SEC filings may protect them from lawsuits, it won't keep the business running if the computers operated by the companies and their vendors don't work."
* * * * * * * *
-- MVI (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 03, 1999.
I hate to harp but,
"There doesn't seem to be anything out there that's going to scare the consumer in 1999," says DANIEL LAUFENBERG at AMERICAN EXPRESS FINANCIAL ADVISERS in Minneapolis. (NYT, 12/31)
This article, this so called expert (or skilled liar
) is the a real case in point in the ultimate Pollyanna. NOTHING OUT THERE. Wow. I think he speak with forked lips.
Come close said the spider to the fly, closer, closer, clossser.
The PNG links are a must read. Japan is toast, They also suffer from a cultural "dont talk about it and everything will be fine" thingy. Saw on CNN (sheeple only please) that PNG was right about the bullying that goes on in the Japanese society. BUT never complain, its taboo.
Denial is the result of the Verbal Opium mainlined to the sheeple. Baaaahaa Baaahaa. Sheep to the slaughter. Baaaha Baaaahaa.
Why am I cynical? I will feed you if your hungry, no matter who you are. I will clothe you if you are naked no matter who you are. I will give you drink if you are thirsty no matter who you are. But I am watching others allow our God given freedoms to evaporate. Where is my childrens future. My hope is in God.
The only bright spot is that every crisis presents opportunity.
-- WAYNE WITCHER (WWITCHER@MVTEL.NET), January 03, 1999.
-- WAYNE WITCHER (WWITCHER@MVTEL.NET), January 03, 1999.
Yes wayne, the japs are definitely a class act these days. When I was in Youkoska a few years back, I remember seeing mens magazines in convenience stores that had pictures of what looked like preteen girls bound and gagged and looking all dirty like they had been tortured. Their genitals were airbrushed out, like it was OK to show this kind of stuff as long as nobody got a peep at little Betty's privates. At the time, people I talked with thought little of it and told me it was because the country had been in a big identity crisis every since WWII.
PNGs article on how the Japanese families are now prostituting their daughters in a last ditch attempt to dig themselves out of their economic plight really hit home for me after what I saw over there.
-- a (email@example.com), January 03, 1999.
Paul: You said it all! Thanks for the excellent response! It's not often that I print out responses, but yours was worth it. Did you read the article Diane Squire? Best quote: "Nothing that is presented to the pollyannas will cause them to reconsider, they will not do anything to substantially prepare. They will not get their families out of cities surrounded by thousands if not hundreds of thousands of people who are not prepared. They rely on the fact that EVEN if it gets bad, people will come out smiling, hold hands and help each other through a time of trouble. While some folks do help others on a VERY MINIMUM and lightly localized scale, historically this has never happened over countries and continents. One people wars against another. When they do not have what they want or need, to live, one group attacks another." Thanks again Paul!
-- bardou (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 03, 1999.
Yes bardou, I read the article. You are well aware of my opinion of Paul Milne, as well.
I still think it CAN be a "5" in most areas. I'll reserve judgement until April 1999. Awaiting "events" that touch people in their daily lives, then we'll see if they "get it." Creating community and preparing locally is still the better choice -- at the moment -- and is probably the wisest short and long-term strategy. One year and counting down.
BTW, I consider Jimmy Bagga a pollyanna. Me, more of a Pocahontas, thank you.
-- Diane J. Squire (email@example.com), January 03, 1999.
Thanks Paul. People seem to have a harder time these days thinking
for themselves. Most don't anymore and it will cost them dearly.
-- Mike Lang (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 03, 1999.
I have to agree with you, Diane. People are social beings, and today's society has made us even more interdependent. I believe this y2k thing is going to be BAD with a capital B, but the only thing that's going to pull us out of it is if everyone works together. I have no doubt we'll have the idiots and the opportunists, but we also have the weak, elderly, and disabled who are going to need help. We can't turn our backs on those just because they voted in the clown that we have in the White House or got comfortable on their disability/welfare/social security (= dependence on gov't). For every 25 pound bag of rice I store, I'm storing with the thought that I may need to share it with people who have nothing. Oh, and, folks, the point was made above -- STOCKPILE COFFEE!! (decaf for me)
-- jhollander (email@example.com), January 03, 1999.
Jeannie: Ever been to the super market and the person with the cart in front of you is loaded down with Cocoa Puffs, boxed macaroni and cheese, cakes from the bakery, Mrs. Paul's Apple Pie, hot chocolate, case of Top Ramen Soup, 5 liters of Coca Cola, New York steaks, and a box of cigarettes and they whip out their food stamps and some cash to pay for the cigs? You think those people give a rats ass where their next meal comes from because they are so use to not earning it but it's given to them for free? Like we owe it to them? These people are smarter than you. They know how to work the system, and they will work you when they can't get their Coca Puff fix for the day. Yes I'm "intolerant and I hate other people. I am obviously prejudiced and a bigot. I hate society and all people." Paul Milne. Yes Paul, that was easy for me to say because it is the truth. People who leech off others are really the intolerant ones. They have no self worth or dignity. As a matter of fact, I know someone personally who bragged to me the other day that they get $300 in food stamps a they eat very well. Not like us, where we have to skimp, clip coupons, watch for ads and compare prices so we can get the most for our money and storage. What right does anyone who is "comfortable on their disability/welfare/social security (dependence on government) have to my property or goods? What have they done to deserve it? There's a certain race of people near my town who came to this country and haven't worked a day since they got here. They collect welfare, food stamps and social security. We harmed them instead of helping them, that's a trajedy. Thanks again Paul!
-- Bardou (Bardou@baloney.com), January 03, 1999.