I would like to wish you all a happy new year and the very best for 1999.

Many of us have been contributing to this forum for some time. Only six months ago there was much confusion. Many of us didn't even know if embedded systems were much of a problem and hardly any of us knew the status of the electric utilities.

Thanks to people like Rick and many others we know a lot more now. We now know as a group what Rick knew long ago. Many of us now know the degree of trouble that lies ahead.

Some questions, which concern 1999, are these:

1. Have we met some of our original objectives? 2. Where are we, as a group, headed? 3. What are our objectives? 4. Do we continue to analyze the status of utilities that we now know are in big trouble? Will this lead to analysis paralysis? 5. Have we arrived at a higher level of understanding only to become informed spectators to the drama about to unfold? Should we take more action? If so, how? 5. The postings on this forum are read by many people in industry and government. Should we take more of a stand on alerting the public to what lies ahead?

When this forum was started, some people in the electric utility industry mocked Rick for his foresight. Despite them, he couragously stood his ground. Despite them, he got us to help ourselves.

How do we proceed in this spirit and example that he has set?

The choices we make now can influence the future for many. I, for one, really look forward to hearing your suggestions.

Steve Tomczak

-- Anonymous, December 31, 1998

Answers

Wow, Steve, you should win a prize for packing so many serious questions into one post! (smile) It's likely that the answers will be as individually different as each reader of this forum is. However, I'll attempt to address your questions from my own perspective.

Have we met some of our original objectives? In my opinion, yes. Facts about the state of the electric industry are surfacing and awareness of the potential problems is rising.

Where are we as a group headed? Into the future, whatever it brings.

What are our goals? I think this has to be addressed on an individual level. My goals are to increase my own base of facts about potential Year 2000 problems, to hopefully increase the awareness of others by disseminating those things I do learn, and to continue to urge others to consider that personal preparation is a wise form of "insurance" to take out. As time has gone on, I also think many of us have discovered that another valid role we are taking on is to provide some consolation to others who are "Get Its" and depressed because of the apathy surrounding them. I've had e- mail from people saying things similar to, "I know I'm not crazy, but when the rest of my family is telling me I am, it helps to know I'm not alone in my concerns.."

Will continuing to analyze lead to "analysis paralysis"? If all an individual is doing is gathering facts, without being able to come to any decision on action (or inaction)regarding preparations, then the paralysis is already there. I think most of the contributors and readers of this forum do not fall into that category. The majority of those who are searching for facts, are also prepared to take action if they deem it warranted, or have already done so. For new readers, it's important that analysis continue. For those who have already reached at least a tentative conclusion, then it's a matter of monitoring any changes in the future which might make an alteration in those conclusions necessary. Do I prepare more? Is what I've done already enough? And the biggie: "Is good news going to surface this next year or more bad news?"

I'll combine your last questions by saying that again, this will be an individual decision. Some will choose to be "informed spectators", generally because they have already spent time and effort to alerting their families, neighborhood, and communities - to no avail. Beating your head against a wall of indifference is not an occupation of choice. It wears you out fast. I harbor no grudge against anyone who finds themselves in this position, nor do I think they are "copping out", as some awareness groups have disparagingly termed it.

That said, I personally think the time is approaching when many more people might start thinking about the Year 2000 and remembering information which was given to them earlier which they didn't pay any attention to then. As the media covers the potential problems in more depth, Uncle Harry will remember a family member talking about what he just saw in the paper or on the TV.

Today's USA Today, the national newspaper, has an article: "Y2K: Minor Glitch or Major Disaster?" This is an excerpt:

"A recently released pamphlet from the American Red Cross - not a group given to unfounded hysteria - recommends precautions, including stockpiling of essential food and drinking water, having 'some extra cash on hand,' keeping your car gas tank full, and being prepared to move to a shelter if the power fails."

With the increased public awareness, I think now is the time for those people who do want to take more of a stand to push forward. Preparing a one page document of basic preparations and making copies of it to have on hand to give anyone who expresses interest is one thing a person can do. Writing a letter to the Editor of your local paper with quotes such as the one from the Red Cross above, or any other credible agency, is also a suggestion. Putting those quotes along with a brief description of the Year 2000 problem together on a sheet of paper and making copies to place at the laundromat, or library, or church, or any other public place is also a possiblity. Those of us who use computers regularly tend to forget that most people do not have access to internet information. Printing out a sheet of Y2K links of all kinds, to give to those who do have a access is another option.

Stressing the overlooked global aspect of the Year 2000, and the impact failures abroad could have here, is also another area to be considered. The same USA Today article mentioned above also said this:

"A World Bank study released this summer found that just 18 of 127 countries (14%)had created a national Year 2000 Program. Only 28 countries (22%) reported working on the problem."

Yes, many countries are not technologically advanced, and the problems would be less with less computerized infrastructure. However, every country has some system of international banking transfers, and air and shipping transportation facilities.

In closing, I'm not out to inform or influence "many". One or two will be worth any effort I put out, because they will tell one or two more. For every small ripple towards awareness and preparation we each create, many others ripples will be created. I cannot make sure all the Y2K problems will be fixed, and I cannot make sure everyone will be prepared for any problems which happen - but my hairdresser saw my letter to the Editor and she "Got It". Any woman knows how news circulates at the hairdressers, right? Trying to create those ripples is the best any of us can do.

I'm off to celebrate the New Year with my husband. He just discovered a Latin phrase which gave him a chuckle. Since keeping a sense of humor is important when we tend to be immersed in unpleasant thoughts, I'll share it here (for those inclined to have a glass of champagne to see the New Year in):

"Nunc Est Bibendum" ("Now is the time to drink!")

Happy New Year to all.

-- Anonymous, December 31, 1998

>1. Have we met some of our original objectives? 

I believe so - when I started euy2k.com almost two years ago, there was very little being said about Y2k in the electric industry. It took 6 months for the first few thousand people to come through the website. Now the website gets nearly 20,000 individual page impressions per day, and nearly 300,000 have come through the front door on at least one occasion. I've never had the time to do a detailed analysis of visitor origin, but suffice it to say that many folks from the industry visit this page every day, to get the 'public pulse' from this forum, to contribute to the 'industry forum', or just to catch up on industry Y2k news.

Also, many of you have become engaged in the Y2k issue because of the euy2k.com website - and you've taken the message to your local officials, community groups, and electric companies. The Y2k issue has been absolutely unique in the history of the electric industry. The confluence of government, business, regulatory, and overwhelming public interest in topic caught the industry completely by surprise.

So, in this sense, I think we've all met at least some of our objectives. But the primary objective is still to 1) provide folks the information they need to make informed personal decisions relating to the risk of power loss as a result of Y2k (or any reason, for that matter, and 2) continue as an information conduit for industry.

> 2. Where are we, as a group, headed? 

Good question. I think, as a virtual community, we continue to keep each other informed as individual acts of the "Y2k play" unfold during 1999. It's vitally important to refine our collective risk analysis of potential post-Y2k impact to the electric industry during the coming 6 months. We're only 363 days away, and still don't have any kind of a firm handle on how soft or hard the landing is going to be. And I guess that's where the synergistic nature of a forum like this comes into play. I can give you my insight where appropriate, but I can't attend all of the local meetings, review 10Q's, catch all of the press reports, etc.etc. Everyone's input will be important during the course of the next few months in forming the previously mentioned "collective risk analysis", which will be the basis for many people, lurker and contributor alike, to make personal preparation decisions going forward.

>3. What are our objectives? 

I don't know what yours are - I think my answers to the previous two questions laid out my own personal objectives - and perhaps provided a bit of a roadmap for anyone reading this forum. Steve, if you would like to take a crack at developing a couple of bullet points for anyone visiting the euy2k.com forum (lurker and contributor alike)to view as objectives for the denizens of this forum, please take a whack. If we can come to a concensus on a couple of (and limit it to a couple) big picture objectives, it might help all of us focus on those goals a bit better.

>4. Do we continue to analyze the status of utilities that we now know 
>are in big trouble? Will this lead to analysis paralysis? 

I don't think the analysis of status (to this point) has led to any type of paralysis - in fact, from what I read, probably the contrary is true. I think that the knowledge gained from the ongoing analyses has led to action on the part of many folks in the forum, in either personal preparedness decisions or action within their environs (talking to neighbors, calling the local electric company, writing elected representatives or going to town hall meetings to express concerns).

>5. Have we arrived at a higher level of understanding only to become 
>informed spectators to the drama about to unfold? Should we take
>more action? If so, how? 

Yes. Yes. ;-) Hopefully, the previous answers kind of meld into an overall answer to this question.

>6. The postings on this forum are read by many people in industry and 
>government. Should we take more of a stand on alerting the public to 
>what lies ahead? 

Through our collective research and deliberation of the issue over the next few months, I think we'll be doing this as an extension of the debate in this forum. And that, ultimately, is the value of the forum.

Individually, the challenge is for each of us to use the knowledge and opinons we gain from the forum, and bring the information to the larger community - our neighborhoods, towns and churches. We each have to be careful of biting off more than we can chew.

Think about dealing with Y2k in terms of eating an elephant (I know; this is a pretty disgusting allegory, but appropriate for communicating size...) This Y2k elephant is bigger than any one of us could eat alone, and I promise you will overwhelm anyone trying to eat the whole thing by themselves. But if we each take small bites, and keep each other up to date on how we're progressing, we stand a much better chance of completing the task.

-- Anonymous, January 02, 1999