story on failure % rates--nation by nation : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

ABC's web site just did a story on the GartnerGroup's estimates of mission-critical failures, by nation, in 2000. This article was covered a month or two ago in the computer industry press, but now the story has gone mainstream.

The GartnerGroup report divides countries into four catagories: a 15% expected mission-critical failure rate, a 33% failure rate, 50% failure rate and 66% failure rate.

"Gartner defines mission-critical failures as causing any of these unpleasantries: a shutdown of business, production or product delivery operations; health hazard to individuals; considerable revenue loss; a significant litigation expense or loss; and significant loss of customers or revenue."

Here's an abbreviated list of nations and their estimated mission-critical failure rates:

15% -- Australia, Canada, Israel, U.K., U.S.

33% -- Brazil, France, Mexico, New Zealand, South Korea

50% -- Germany, Japan, Kuwait, North Korea, Saudi Arabia

66% -- China, Russia

This is another article to show to DGI family and friends. This is in the mainstream press. Bookmark it.

"Y2K vs. the World"

-- Kevin (, December 29, 1998


Under the 50% did Puerto Rico become a country? Last I heard they were voting on statehood.


-- Rick Tansun (, December 29, 1998.

Aren't most of the 66% Scary countries also less technology dependant?


-- Diane J. Squire (, December 29, 1998.

Diane brings up a great point that has always bothered me about this kind of analysis.

The countries most dependent upon technology will suffer the most due to the disruptions which occur and hamper everyday, just in time delivery, manufacturing, etc. The countries which depend less on technology may see little difference in thier day to day existance.

Both China and Russia have populations where the majority are far less reliant on technology. Furthermore, China has the largest standing military that is much less reliant on technology.

We keep being handed a rose colored view of our own country which is really disturbing. WE are the most dependent upon exactly the kinds of systems that may cause the most disruptions. Put that together with the countries worldwide that do depend heavily on technology to produce oil, technology, etc. and the picture becomes even more frightening. We depend upon those countries which will suffer through disruptions. What might happen if oil production, shipping, manufacturing abroad slows or becomes impossible? Everything is interconnected and we're not immune.

We should be at 50% or more if you take into account all possible factors. But, just taking into account a "15% mission criticle failure rate" says nothing about ALL the other systems that had to put off as non-criticle and how they may impact operations.

Eh, I'm ranting...

Mike =====================================================

-- Michael Taylor (, December 29, 1998.

To see what a 15% breakdown rate would do to the USA's infrastructure, go to The Y2K Interactive "Circle of Dominoes" Engine and enter 15% for all the categories. It's pretty eye-opening.

-- Nabi Davidson (, December 29, 1998.

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