PNG's latest essay paints a grim picture for Japangreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Synopsis: Japan is in very serious trouble.
-- a (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 27, 1998
Japan continues to be in very serious trouble. As an investor and market watcher, it still amazes me that the whole global house of debt cards still has not collapsed. The five points are well articulated, and I remember when PNG was discussing with us the idea of "Decession".
Keep in mind that the Western Bankers have made it clear that they expect Japan to lead the way out for Southeast Asian countries financial debacles. This is like several drunks trying to help each other walk down a street. Yes, they are the second largest economy on the planet, but they also are in so much trouble themselves that one questions how much longer they can put off the inevitable collapse of their own house, nevermind playing these money shuffle games (interest payments on yen denominated loans with the other SE Asian countries) that PNG writes about. Amazing... and all this without Y2K too.
Ed Yardeni said they are not worried about Y2K since they have a "right now" problem and are toast - and that in 2000 they will be "burnt toast ." I agree with his conclusion but not his timing... just don't see them getting to 2000 without the house of debt cards crumbling. I keep waiting and I keep being proven wrong since it still has not happened. This post by PNG only proves to me that I will, unfortunately, be correct eventually. Consider the global ramifications to the 'world economy', and 'world trade', etc.
-- Rob Michaels (email@example.com), December 27, 1998.
The dangerous economic milieu that Y2K will operate in leads me to believe that the economic repurcussions of Y2K will dwarf all other problems.A strong global economy could perhaps limit Y2K to a tough but manageable problem. The underlying economic weakness in the world that Newsweek highlighted a few months ago in a cover article remains.Many economists wonder how the deck of cards is still standing.Y2K could very well be the log that breaks the camels back.The economy is global.We do not live in a vacuum.Too many look only at the USA and conclude we will weather the storm.The storm will be global.Pivotal changes could occur that will be the big story of our millenium.
-- Dennis Chornomaz (Dchorno@aol.com), December 27, 1998.