The unrealistic 30 day scenariogreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
I would like to talk about preparedness. I'm a newbie to this list but not the y2k issue. I'm surfing different list to find one to join. Anyway one of the thing I've found on this list is the talk about preparing for over thirty(30) days. This is ludicrous if power goes out for over thirty days SOCIETY WILL COLLAPSE TOTALLY, and will not come back. Those Safeway stores will NEVER reopen. After a couple of weeks gangs will start roaming the streets of our major cities. In another week they will start spreading to the country side. With a pair of binoculars from a high point they will be able to spot anyone with a cooking of heating fire. They will then attack and rob and rape. Those in the campsite may stop the first attack, but the second or third or fourth etc will get to them. Society will never come back from a 30 day blackout, not as we know it. Plus there is no way anyone can really prepare for something over thirty days. There are just too many tools and objects needed that we cannot think of now, or simply do not exist. If you manage to live for a couple of months, you will find the need for objects that you never thought of. Some of you are talking about seeds. Do you have any idea how difficult it is to break grounds by hand for planting. It can be done but it takes a lot of time. Some of you may have horses, where are you going to get the feed for them. The harnesses to use those horses don't exist anymore. Folks to prepare for anything past thirty (30) days is a pure wast of time. It is a much better use of your time and money to make sure as possible that the y2k event doesn't last that long.
-- J. Bert Labbi (email@example.com), December 27, 1998
# # # 19981227
J. Bert Labbi:
At this point in time, the duration of the "Year 2000 Techno-Ambush" is beyond the control/remediation/intervention realm of action in politics, economics, social/cultural infrastructures of computer- dependent societies.
Preparations are irreducibly relegated to the "KISS" ( Keep It Simple, Stupid ) principle by virtue of all the reasons you cite.
Do the best that you are able, and hope--beyond hope--that you and yours are fortunate to make due for survival.
Regards, Bob Mangus # # #
-- Robert Mangus (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 27, 1998.
Welcome, JBL. For a newbie, you have the picture pretty well! It's the very things you mention that we fear most. That's why you will find that people preparing well are also preparing to be out of the cities and stocked up for 6 months to a year or more.
Yes,subsistence farming is hard but not impossible and the alternative is starving.Which would you choose? There are work-arounds for the problems you mention and those in the country already can prepare for them.
If you feel that it will last long (as most of us do) and you don't feel you have these skills, then join up with someone or some group that can use your labor and you will learn and survive, But don't give up!
The rallying cry of the preparers has become"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst!"
-- Sue (email@example.com), December 27, 1998.
I basically agree that past 30 days, the scenarios get very dark. But I don't believe you have given sufficient thought to some areas.
First, even in the worst grid crash, there will be islands of electric power. Distribution, not generation, is likely to be the biggest problem. Second, remember, tractors (big and small) aren't going to disappear. Many on this list will store gasoline or diesel solely to be used for powering these machines. I can plow 20 acres in one day with the right tractor on 10 gallons of fuel. Not that hard to store 10 gallons. Lastly, any raiders are going to find a lot of well armed, ex-miltary types in my area. We will have food, water, weapons, experience and prepared positions that the raiders won't have. Yes, they will be a short term problem and then their own lack of preparation will do them in (or we will, especially if its a harsh winter).
Folks to prepare for anything past thirty (30) days is a pure wast of time. It is a much better use of your time and money to make sure as possible that the y2k event doesn't last that long.
Wrong. Dead wrong. Its the long term preparations that make sense. You can wear the clothes, use the propane, eat the food and sell the guns if it turns out to be a bump in the road. If its Scenario 8+, I live and you die. If its Scenario 1, I live and you live. Your choice.
-- RD. ->H (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 27, 1998.
Be careful J , there is an initiation for rookies. :-)
What most here on this list offer is exceptional insights. I usually lurk and find what I would say has already been said.
I see y2k as striking in '99. An article by an awareness group in Brittain states that 60% of y2k problems will occur next year, starting in just five days. It will be mostly software problems affecting businesses and corporations. As a result I see major recession and then depression as the markets start to realize y2k is bigger than the economists are predicting. So 99 failures, imho will result in financial problems, layoffs, and closedowns until things get fixed and tested. And remember, testing has to happen this year producing another source of failures.
This article I mentioned stated that ten precent of y2k problems have already occurred, 60 percent next year, and only 20 percent on next January first, with the remaining ten percent happening throughout 2000. Of course, that twenty percent on one day will be devastating. It will mostly be embedded chip rollovers. And that is the beginning of the thirty day war...with water, sewage, heat, food, and social unrest.
My guess is that if it goes down for several days we are in for a long long seige. Yes, someone may find me and kill me and take my extra food and live in my house. But what choice do I have? I have a gun and I'll use it if I have to. What choice do I have? It is like Hiroshima. Those people that survived had to clean up and rebuild. What choice do the living have but to survive to the best of their ability? Preparing for thirty days is silly to me. No preparation is really necessary for that. I am preparing for six months to a year and even then I can here laughter. But what choice do I have? I will not be alone. I plan to group together with others to survive. Isolation will get you killed in 2000.
-- BBrown (email@example.com), December 27, 1998.
Y2K is an entirely local issue with respect to services and infrastructure - some places will be much more ready than others.
The basic programming errors can be found and corrected - if enough time and money are spent early enough. Only a few areas of the country (an estimated 1/3 of the counties) are spending money early enough to do some good. If you are not in one of those areas - be more careful.
Therefore - study your local situation and plan according to what they have already fixed, what they (the local city and county services districts (water, electricity, natural gas, sewage, 911, phone - nobody else matters). Based on what you find out about what they say - and when they will test - decide on what you think is prudent.
That may be six months (until mid-summer), 12 weeks, six weeks, or 3 weeks. It may even be three days. (Not recommended!)
-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw GA) (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 27, 1998.
Yes, Robert. Study your local situation, and help the investigative journalists to study it too, and plan individually and in community.
"You are where you are, and not anywhere else."
-- Diane J. Squire (email@example.com), December 27, 1998.
It's really not that hard if you make it a lifestyle change. Look at the Amish etc. They do it. Horses are the easy part. Hay stays good for a long long time. All you need is alot of it put back. Feed bins are available for storing 1500 + lbs of feed. Fuel is easy to get, now. Just contact a local Farm Bureau. Roter Tillers don't take much gas. Wood heat is fairly easy to come by. Fence your house, have some big nasty dogs.... PS You can do alot of the vet stuff yourself...
-- Moore Dinty moore (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 27, 1998.