slope of failuregreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Just a few thoughts about the "slope of failure" theory:
Winds at Seventy MPH in Gusts are not as bad as Winds at Fourty MPH for 2 days straight.
7 children under 5 years of age in your well kept house for 1 hour is not as bad as 2 children 5 years of age in same house for 10 hours.
The longer problems associated with Y2K lasts, the deeper the impact and the farther slide down the ye olde proverbial hillside. ww
-- WAYNE WITCHER (WWITCHER@MVTEL.NET), December 26, 1998
Your point is exactly correct - but I do question - h**l quibble is the right word - about the two examples, having studied building designs and small kids in large bunches over short periods of time.
A steady wind at "low" speed - that is 40-60 mph - is easily designed for and resisted by "normal forces". This is after all the counter-point of DWGI's who argue that there are computer and computer program failures going on all the time now. Y2K will be like the hurricane striking from all four directions at once with irregular gusts from 75-150 mph winds. Any single occurrance would cause problems, but would be recoverable. The multiple impacts from unexxpected directions is the threat.
As witness a birthday party or Cub Scout pack meeting - the more the merrier? The difference is self-discipline. The same number of adults in a choir rehearsal is sedate and easily managed by a single voice. Ten or hundred times the number of adults in an Army dress parade requires a coherent well-managed organization just to get one single command out to the whole group at the same time.
To manage 1,000,000 adults in a crisis across a wide area requires exceptional planning and coordination. And a dedicated staff of thousands. Etc.
-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw GA) (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 27, 1998.