Bedtime reading from csy2k.......! : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

What country has 1000's of nukes aimed at us?

What country has millions of Y2K non compliant embedded CPU's integral to their nuclear missile launch systems?

What country can't even pay their nuclear missile control officers, nevermind have any worthless currency for "remediation"?

What country is so enraged by Clinton's "Monica Missles" attack on Iraq that they will not ratify Start II?

What country is planning on fix on failure?

"Use 'em or lose em?" "If you live within 250 miles of a major city, military base, or command center, you probably will be toast"

-- Andy (, December 23, 1998


Isn't launching of nuclear missals in error pretty far-fetched? A Chernobyl-type disaster seems more likely. IOW, the Russians will probably be their own victims, as usual, shooting themselves in the foot as they frequently do.

As for the U.S., I'd be more concerned about our OWN nuclear sites.

-- Ben Dair (, December 23, 1998.

This is an issue where I think most of us are DWGIs. Fact is, we've been close to the brink more than once. There is a serious concern of early warning screens going blank, and if things are already tense that's not a good thing.

From what I've read, nuclear war is survivable. Chances are military targets will be hit, not necessarily civilian cities. Major airports, maybe, in the second round. You have to take precautions against fallout, according to FEMA five bucks worth of potassium iodide per person will take care of 99%.

I recently read that high-level nuclear waste sites could have serious problems in event of prolonged power failure, but I haven't found sources I really trust on that.

-- Shimrod (, December 23, 1998.

What have you been reading? Nuclear war is NOT survivable, no way, no how. Even if cities are not targets (and they are), the nuclear fallout will get every one. I worked in the Air Force on simulations of radiation fallout, I know. Our bodies can't take many rads.

But the good news is that nuclear war (involving Russia) will never happen. OK, the probability is .00000001. The Soviet Union couldn't afford it, and now with the breakout, Russia can't afford it. Do any of you know how many "eyes" are watching for missile launches? I do. And the possiblity of not knowing of a missile launch is nile. OK, the probability is .0000001. There are just too many variables in that equation and all would have to fail, highly unlikely. Get a grip.

Troll Maria

-- Maria (, December 23, 1998.

Anger. Fear. Distrust. Uneasy de' tante'.

System failure. Confusion. More fear. Greed.

"Accidents" happen.

-- INVAR (, December 23, 1998.

It's that 12 hour stretch where Moscow doesn't work, but it knows NORAD still does that worries me.

Beyond that, Y2K may be the ultimate "Entropy Generator'.

Sleep tight.

-- Lewis (, December 23, 1998.


they've had no maintenance in several years - zip - couldn't afford it.

rough estimates (troll m. isn't the only one with background on this issue):

minimal 50-75 percent failure on launch - either it goes phut, and goes nowhere, or the rocket motors misfire (it blows (nonnuclear)/burns up), or the structural integrity of the missile gives way (it blows(nonnuclear)/burns up) or the internal gyrostabilization fails (it wanders a bit then tips over and rams itself into the ground) or something similar.

even the ones that do manage to make it up okay will most likely have serious glitches ongoing - in other words just 'cause it gets up doesn't mean it's gonna go anywhere near where it was supposed to, nor is/are the payload(s) going to arrive where THEY were supposed to, NOR are any of the payloads guaranteed to be functional when they do arrive.

In other words, it don't matter if you live near a target, 'cause if you're playing the percentages, a target is one of the few places you can be relatively certain has a low chance of actually being hit.

on the upside: it's more likely that the missiles will fall short, rather than long. On the downside: most of the posters on this board live in the northern hemisphere.

oh and a point for Troll Maria - never EVER EVER expect rational decisions from power mongers who believe that they are about to lose, or have just lost, control of a situation. If you need a current small example of that premise in action - look at the whitehouse...

Arlin Adams

-- Arlin H. Adams (, December 23, 1998.

You're right. Clinton is capable of doing that!

-- Maria (, December 23, 1998.

No no no - they were talking about China after the devaluation of the yuan (-2sp).

-- Andy (, December 23, 1998.

Arlin Mentioned a 50 - 75% failure after launch, did you calculate in BEFORE launch? I was thinking about this alot today, and it takes a lot of things for the missile to even get to the launch stage. Like say that big ass door getting out of it's way so it can leave the silo. Is it fueled? Did the gangway retract? Did the engines fire?

Just like we say Y2K is systemic, and so much could bring down the system, think of all the "vendors" involved in getting that missile on it's way.


-- Rick Tansun (, December 23, 1998.

sorry, Rick, I should have written "on attempt to launch" or "following attempt to initiate the launch sequence" rather than "after launch" that implies that something that might look like a launch already happened.

sorry, I wrote that in kind of a hurry...


-- Arlin H. Adams (, December 23, 1998.

Arlin, no problem. I was just curious if it did include pre-launch difficulties. I am not ruling out the possability of a launch due to a failure, but I sure don't lean towards it. And even if it does happen, like you said, the likleyhood of it hitting it's target are pretty slim (paraphrasing)

Thanks for clarifying Arlin.


-- Rick Tansun (, December 24, 1998.

Some of russia's defectors havae indicated that Russia believes they can win a nuclear war with the correct stategy...and they think they know how. Now we all have to build bomb shelters! :< Happy Digging!

-- Moore Dinty moore (, December 25, 1998.

Check out Joel Skousen on the Art Bell archives for more on the above.

-- Andy (, December 26, 1998.

Moderation questions? read the FAQ