Extent.greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread |
What do you expect to happen? How far do you think things will fall?FWIW, here's what I think:
Massive economic crash. 80% unemployment or worse. IT industry ceases to exist, ninety percent of the internet goes offline which wouldn't matter since not many people can afford access now anyway.
Civil unrest. Lots of opportunistic terrorism. A million or more people die by starvation primarily, disease secondary. Ten thousand or more die in violence.
The Federal government holds. Not in all places, but it stays in existence over a majority of the USA.
Within ten years, things have stabilised. Within twenty, it's back to normal again, with a few changes.
What do you guys expect to happen?
-- Leo (leo_champion@hotmail.com), December 22, 1998
Leo,The Y2K scenario that sounds the most plausible to me is the one by Jo Anne Slaven in Y2K Weather Report #99. It's called "Thinking About a possible future." Here are brief excerpts in the form of a timeline:
Jan. 1-10 Blackout time
Jan. 11-31 *Major* Annoyances time
Feb. 1-May 31 Depression time
June 1-Sep. 30 "Cautiously Hopeful" time
Oct. 1 to Lord-knows-when...Serious Shortage time
You can see the original scenario Jo Anne wrote for WRP99 at this link: http://www.kiyoinc.com/WRP99.HTM
-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), December 22, 1998.
I really don't think that millions of people will die, most by starvation. Power may be disrupted in a few isolated areas but manual overrides will get the system back on. Even if 20% (a high number) of the power systems fail, it will not bring down the entire system.Telecommunications will conduct an interoperability test in 1st quarter 1999, so we'll find out soon how that industry will fare. I work for a telecommunications company and their critical systems are Y2K compliant and tested. But I think, we may lose phones for only a short (1/2 day) period, because (as discussed in another thread) testing doesn't catch everything. 900 bugs out of 1 million LOC translates to 1%, assuming 10% date infections.
Banks don't fail because of computers; banks fail because of bad investments. The Asian market proved that this year. There was an actual failure and the New York stock market only made 15% (instead of 30% as it was headed). I don't think the banks will fail. No doubt they will have problems but that doesn't translate into failure.
As for the global picture, 1998 has seen many economic failures already. Russia has always been in economic disaster and the world still spins. Communism only masked its problems. It was never in a position to start nuclear war, its economy wouldn't let it. (I worked in the Air Force running war simulations and had many secret briefings on Russia's status both militarily and socially).
Put me in any category you want but my crystal ball is just as good as yours.
Troll Maria
-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), December 22, 1998.
Leo.....80% unemployment.........get a life, get a job, get something...........
May I suggest you check yourself in for treatment at your local hospital or mental health center now, before you hurt yourself or someone else. I am very serious about this. With the type of statements you are making you are headed for a breakdown.
I am extremely concerned about the lack of balance that has blanketed this forum. It seems to have gone from a place where sensible and reasonable people make prudent preparations and suggestions to a place where far too often, manic-depressives are worshipped and the more outrageous you become, the more you are respected.
With a few notable exceptions (you know who you are..), much of the rest seem to fall into the selfish paramilitary anti-government extremist camp. Many even seem to wish that Y2K would destroy most things and justify it with perverted religious doctrines.
There is little discussion of the practical procedures that government and industry will be implementing during the difficult times, such as banks drastically reducing the different account options they offer for a while, or governments modifying tax procedures to simplify them etc.
Obviously, if currency levels become low due to large withdrawals, the government must implement some rules so as to avoid a crash. This is soundly criticized however I have yet to see a reasonable alternative suggested from anyone. The prevailing attitude is one of "I got my guns and bullets and dried food and solar panels and to hell with the rest of you".
God help the poor newbies who show up here...........certainly they benefit by some of the helpful suggestions from some memebers of this forum, but I believe the good is being overwhelmed by the just plain foolish extreme elements that not only cannot seem to find a realistic balanced approach, but who also trash anyone who disputes their "Road Warrior" fantasies.
Leo.......A certain amount of software is constantly malfunctioning. This, unfortunately, is the norm as the systems are quite complex. Yes, Y2K will magnify and compound these problems, but will not reduce the world to a heap of twisted metal. Much of the world will be even better off if we have to spend some time fixing our systems rather than dropping bombs on their children...........primarily so we can reap the benefits of cheap oil.
Yeah....Saddams a madman and should be removed.........just don't ask me to believe for one second that if the real goal was to remove Saddam, that he would still be there years later.
Leo, get help. You are in no condition to be selling emergency shelters to anyone and will not make any money from Y2K. A successful business plan requires one to act on reasonable assumptions, not imflammatory destructive rhetoric.
-- Craig (craig@hotmail.com), December 22, 1998.
Leo,I used to try to think about all that might happen and realized there are just too many variables and unknowns. I go from doubts about the possible extent to terror about the possible extent.
Regarding this, "80% unemployment or worse".
80% unemployment wont happen. It will just be "worse". If unemployment goes beyond a certain percentage you're talking war and social and political meltdown.
That's the part that really scares me, and I think it's one thing that is really known. There will be unemployment. Just think how many people would be out of work if General Motors goes under? Not just the employees who work for GM but also many of the employees that work for the suppliers of GM. That's a whole lot of people by just one business failure. Even if GM can survive they will have t downsize due to a slow in production. A downsize would have adverse effects in the economy. Just look at Boeing recently.
So, I can't put a rating on Y2k. It's a 10 in just personal emotional trama already.
Mike ======================================================================
Mike =========================================================
-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), December 22, 1998.
echo... echo...Mike
who's got to go shopping and get away from this computer for a while! =====================================================================
-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), December 22, 1998.
# # # 19981222Craig:
Ad hominem attacks have no Y2K-standing--except for Clintonista's.
Repercussions from Y2K-will astound you. I don't know _your background--nor does it matter. With 33+ years IT experience--2 in Y2K projects--first person experience will tell you that a meltdown of unimeaginable proportions will occur. ( Sen. Bennett--and other government organs--notwithstanding! Have you read _any of the GSA Y2K reports, sir? )
Newbies need to seek and hear the truth about Y2K, somewhere. They certainly are not going to find it ( yet ) in mainstream media. Asking those of us that have first hand knowledge is--for now--the only window to Y2K ramifications.
Take off the blinders and seek the truth yourself, but let the concepts and extrapolations simmer in the brains cells awhile. Your inability to accept or integrate Y2K facts, will not change these facts.
Wake up, and smell the "burnt coffee" of Y2K, hidden in soft-pedaling SEC 10-Q's and pap spewing from corporate and government orifices.
Believe what you will. Ignore facts, as you wish. Yours, and your loved one's, personal existence _is in peril! Y2K-dominos have already begun tumbling in corporate "bowels."
While 80% or worse may sound horrific, the other side of that coin looks like this: Everyone--come 01/01/00--in computerized nations, will be plying an occupation other than that of today.
Decide what yours shall be, then, start training!
Regards, Bob Mangus # # #
-- Robert Mangus (rmangus@mail.netquest.com), December 22, 1998.
If only 20% of power generation in this country (USA) were to be interrupted, the results could be disastrous. As a current power utility employee explained to me when I asked, you have to imagine the National Power Grid as a large lake with many inflowing (Power Generattion Plants) and outflowing (Consumers) streams.When demand is great the inflowing plants must step up their output to supply the "lake" and keep it at a nominal level of power. If the demand is normal, but the rate at which power is supplied to the grid is reduced, then the level of power in the grid will begin to drop. A 20% decrease will probably cause a cascading drop in the rest of the power stations as they try to keep up.
-- Eric Roger (ericroger@hotmail.com), December 22, 1998.
I'm sorry, but once again I must question the credibility of the original post in this thread. WAS THAT REALLY LEO CHAMPION???? He's been the victim of imposters before, and seems to have made a few troll enemies. While the original post here does not deviate, TOO MUCH from the things we know him to have said, it doesn't seem quite him. He is, for one thing, Australian, and usually filters things through that. And. of course, if he IS being trolled, the trolls will come in and say "Yes, it was me, Leo!" Or maybe, as Craig suggests, our friend Leo is just going crazy.Yuck...
-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), December 22, 1998.
Robert Mangus tooted -- While 80% or worse may sound horrific, the other side of that coin looks like this: Everyone--come 01/01/00--in computerized nations, will be plying an occupation other than that of today. --Yes Robert, you can line up behind Leo in the clinic.....quickly.
What kind of trash are you spewing -- Everyone will be plying an occupation other than that of today --
You've lost all ability to reason and use common sense when you start making stupid statements like that. Credentials don't make you intelligent Robert. The vast majority of those with similiar credentials to yours do not believe in the Road Warrior type crap that you do.
I am familiar with Y2K projects and business in general. Virtually all respectable companies are planning for this event and also have contingency plans. Yes, there may be severe disruptions and awareness and action are necessary. But with irresponsible statements such as the ones emanating from Leo's and your mouths, you do far more harm than good.
You take turns "bettering" each others stories, kind of like 'I had to walk 30 miles to school each way in minus 95 temperatures in my bare feet, with a 200 pound rock hanging over my neck and it was uphill both ways'. Yet you seem past the point of returning to your senses
Take Leo's statement -- Massive economic crash. 80% unemployment or worse. IT industry ceases to exist --
We've already seen how silly the 80% unemployment is........granted, their may be 80% unemployment amongst wingnuts .....but the IT industry will cease to exist??? Huh.......the vast majority of computers will still be here.....most of them compliant. Like IBM and Microsoft etc. are just going to pack it in and give up........DUH!!
Now if you could just use a little sense and make realistic statements that there may be some major layoffs in the IT industry as a result, you would have credibility.
I can see by the number of posts some make, that this whole thing has become an obsession, similiar to the obsession with the end of the world that haunts the ultra-apocalyptic fundamentalist mindset. The similiarities are amazing.......I know, I used to follow that nonsense until I saw the amazing fallacies in it.
The behaviour of some in this forum is cult-like. You gotta have your Road Warrior 'fix' and you can't stay away. A little voice in the back of your mind occasionally warns you that you have lost all perspective and balance but you ignore it because you want to feed your TEOTWAWKI addiction. And even when we get through Y2K, like Gary North, you will find another event to cling on to, to satisfy your morbid fantasies.
Quite frankly, I think you're beyond listening to any reason, but you needed to be told this. If and when the voice of reason in your head gets through to you, do go and get professional help.
-- Craig (craig@hotmail.com), December 22, 1998.
Robert Mangus - You are one who will survive.Craig represents the epitome of the "Clintonista" Zeitgeist. Attack the credibility and character of those they disagree with. Don't attack the facts Robert cited, attack him personally. Don't let anyone upset your ideological applecart, it may start a self- fulfilling prophesy and panic - AND THAT'S WHAT YOU ARE TRULY AFRAID OF ISN'T IT? Let's play blind, let's play I'm O.K., You're O.K.- and if we don't look at the hard facts, it won't happen. But damn you to hell if you cry aloud and frighten folks that might agree with the facts!
In other words Craig, if we don't agree with you and express our opinions - we are dangerous and need to be silenced and put away. That's what you just told Robert.
So much for freedom of expression.
Craig, your ilk disgusts me.
You won't survive.
-- INVAR (gundark@aol.com), December 22, 1998.
Leo does not care if things go bad he can take his car and run over a kangaroo or live in the outback all he has to have is water he can find it at a sheep station. Australia has native people he can live with them in Queensland or along the coast. In South Australia he can live at Coober Pedy and mine for a living while living under the ground. Leo can get rich .Lots of places to hide in the land down under. I wished i lived there Bubba.
-- Bubba (Badhabbit@water.com), December 22, 1998.
Of course, Craig, there IS always the possibility that our civilization as it is currently configured will completely cease to exist, and we will be reduced to barbarism. Unlikely, but not completely out of the question. Just because someone sees that possibility, is frightened by it and tries to warn other people, does not mean they "need professional help." Besides, most of the psycho- babble industry (like most of medicine and possibly software remediation?) treats symptoms rather than causes and tries to make the "patient feel better." I would venture to say that our fine friend Leo (the real one, not the troll) would be WORSE off seeking "professional help." He's a pretty smart guy generally, as I'm sure you are...
-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), December 22, 1998.
You know, Craig, I really do want to be a 2 like you. What a luxury that would be. It'd be a great disservice to my daughter and family that I'm preparing for, though.Problem is, I can dang near prove on paper that if, internationally, power were to go down for five days (and then come back up), employment would be closer to 90% on the sixth day and stay that way for .... a long time.
So here's the schizophrenia for some of us fruitcake 9 and 10s: from what we can glean, expect one hellish month. From what we can imagine, based on having no proof (or even a likelihood!) to the contrary, it's 1+ yr/hell. That's a big span, based on relatively minor power outages.
I sure wish I could be a 2................
-- Lisa (nomail@work.com), December 22, 1998.
80% UnemploymentObviously haven't done much research in economics, eh?
At the worst point of the Great Depression, unemployment was 33% percent, I believe. And that was just a 1 to 2 year period around 1932/1933. By 1935, unemployment was back down, partially due to the CCC, the problem was that people were making 2/3 to 1/2 of what they were making in 1929...
There were many incidents of civil unrest, "The Bonus March"? The Communist party collected a strong following and people actually were in fear that the US government would become "communist".
I'm expecting conditions similar to the Great Depression. The variable is how people "act". If we believe the moral compass of people is gone, then conditions will be much worse (probably civil war). If civil war breaks out, we'll probably be living in conditions similar to those at the end of the civil war, except that people today have better guns. If people live like civilized human beings, we'll be back to a "decent" society by 2005 and probably completely automated by 2010.
Glen Austin
-- Glen Austin (gdaustin@aol.com), December 22, 1998.
To Invar.....Yeah....talk about the facts. The problem is, although I acknowledge the potential for severe problems, some of you wrongly assume that we will be re-entering the 18th Century and your tolerance for the the 99.5% of people who disagree with you is non-existant. Sure, Leo is free to believe what he wants.......but it definitely affecting his ability to function living in that fear mode and many others look like you're heading there too.
Also, what's with your 'Clintonista' bullshit. You're talking out of your hat man. I have no use for Clinton and feel he should resign. Perhaps you're part of that fringe element that loves the government when they're protecting you from hostile foreign powers and criminals, but are constantly trying to fit all actions and events into a 'conspiracy theory' mode.
Look, you're throwing the Y2K awareness campaign into disrepute and making a mockery of it supporting statements such as "80% of people will be unemployed, all IT will cease to exist etc."
No one is extreme enough for you.........you gladly trash de Jager, Yardeni, et al and have probably reached the stage that Mr. Yourdon would prefer to distance himself from your predictions. Sheesh, at times you make Nostradamus look like a PollyAnna, and yet you seem proud of it. The slogan of choice seems to be "It can't be fixed, It can't be fixed..."
It's not fixed now man..... and yet we continue on. Networks go down regularly, computer errors are rampant, most software has glitches.
Fact is, the extreme point of view is very rarely accurate.
I have done much for Y2K awareness in my community. I can assure you, however, that hurling irresponsible figures like 80% unemployment etc. into the picture would not only be foolish, it would actually hinder progress by putting Y2K preparations into the wingnut category in most peoples minds.
Seriously, Leo & others that have taken this too far, do get some help. I think I can safely say, that almost all would agree that if your children started rambling in the depressive tones that Leo had been, you would get help for them.
-- Craig (craig@hotmail.com), December 22, 1998.
Craig: I agree that the religious wackos give this problem a bad name. The very mention of "God", turns off many people from taking the problem seriously. It would have the same effect on me since I am an atheist. Unfortunately the RWs may have finally gotten luckly. I have reached my conclusions on I hope the facts as presented on all of the sites, plus my own extensive IT knowledge and experience. I have to reassure myself and others that I am not one of them. Other than the many drawbacks noted about my fellow citizens (70% functionally illiterate, oblivious to the world, etc.), I wish to add the following observation; many my age (55) and somewhat younger are products of a drug and alcohol generation. Even if my skills were not as good as they are, I would have a tremendous advantage in not ever having ever participated in drugs and alcohol. I am not brain damaged and show up sober. Unfortunately many of the people in charge now can not make the same claim. I sometimes marvel at how we do as well as we do with so little. In a crunch we will be in big trouble.
-- curtis schalek (schale1@ibm.net), December 22, 1998.
Hello Craig:It is nice that you are concerned about Leo's mental health. However, I have worked as a psychiatric nurse in an acute care unit, and I beg to differ with your assessment.
Leo is not manifesting signs of depression. Depression is a clinical condition with specific signs. Leo was asking a question, then expressing an opinion. His opinion was pessimistic in the short run, optimistic in the long run. Pessimistic opinions are not the same as depression.
Craig, what has happened to you? I remember your early posts as being more well-thought-out, concerned about the y2k issue, but unwilling to fall into your old ways. It is good that you want to avoid lifestyle choices that have proven unsuccessful for you in the past.
But, allowing people their own opinions is not a bad choice. Leo is not sick. Leo has a difference of opinion.
By belittling Leo and calling him "depressed" or "in need of therapy", you do not strengthen your argument. By using inflamatory language, insults, and arguments lacking in logic, you only weaken your position.
Instead, why not present facts that support your contentions? Why not present this forum with the results of independent testing that confirms XYZ company is compliant/nearly compliant/will-be-compliant?
I'm sure Leo, too, would be happy to know that things won't be as bad as he fears.
Anita E.
-- Anita Evangelista (ale@townsqr.com), December 22, 1998.
Craig: "... the government simplifying tax procedures..", now who is unrealistic? Do you ever watch the pompous windbags on cpsan?
-- curtis schalek (schale1@ibm.net), December 22, 1998.
Craig, you just made my point. How elitist of you.>>>>Sure, Leo is free to believe what he wants.......but it definitely affecting his ability to function living in that fear mode and many others look like you're heading there too. <<<
How do you know? How do you know the way he 'functions', isn't best for himself and his family? How do you decide it is 'affecting' his function? Elitist bastard. Why must any of us fall into your "definition" of proper 'function' in society simply because he believes an 80% unemployment rate is possible due to Y2K?
Political Correctness has just now made its way into Y2K discussion folks. Are those of us that don't tow your PC elitist opinions to be expunged from the discussion? Should we be locked-up because we are preparing for what we believe is a possible meltdown of our fragile infrastuctures? Are we the "problem" because we refuse to wear rose colored glasses? Screw you and your like.
>>>I can assure you, however, that hurling irresponsible figures like 80% unemployment etc. into the picture would not only be foolish, it would actually hinder progress by putting Y2K preparations into the wingnut category in most peoples minds. <<<
Bullshit. Explaining the realities of possible disasters INCREASES preparations for them. Fear of a disaster and ALL THE CARNAGE POSSIBLE FROM IT incites many to learn more about it and to prepare for it. Folks here learned about a possible major earthquake on the New Madrid Faultline 8 years ago. Horrors were told. Most folks now are ready for one if it occurs. Was anything lost? Did folks die from heart-failure because they were scared 85% of all structures might collapse in a 6.5-7.2 earthquake? Was progress hindered? Not in the slightest. Your conclusion is irresponsible, idiotic and insulting.
Last week we were told if Clinton was impeached the markets would crash and our military would all-but-dissolve. The exact opposite happened. If Leo wants to opine 80% possible unemployment - HE CAN OPINE 80% unemployment due to Y2K failures. IT WON'T HARM PROGRESS IN THE LEAST, it will HELP THEM.
What WILL harm progress is you elitist pollyannas labelling those of us that DO BELIEVE the possibility of say an 80% unemployment from an utter infrastucture collapse, as extreme nutcases that need treatment.
Once again the Elites want to tell us how to think, how to act and how to believe. Divert from their definitions ...be excoriated.
You Craig, will not survive.
Those of us that have prepared will.
-- INVAR (gundark@aol.com), December 22, 1998.
Craig - you're making a lot of sense. This is a totally unique problem and will affect every thinking person psychologically to varying degrees of extent. The DWGI's are handling it in their own way - burying their heads in the sand, thereby saving themselves a lot of mental anguish. Actually I think many GIs are also in denial at some level. The GI's in contrast have to face up to their fears - and part of the coping process is validation of these anxieties with their fellow peers.I think we can safely say that the vast majority (not all, there are always peole with agendas out there) of us want this to be a .2 at the most on the Infomagic scale (1.0 = ELE or Extinction). However any rational person, who has read a smattering of the sites out there, done their research, looked at and digested the latest statistics, and *MOST IMPORTANTLY* factored in the rest of the world's remediation fiasco, can only come to one conclusion.
Integrate into the scenario the double-whammy of the imploding financial system worldwide and we have the makings of a calamity waiting to happen. To add icing to this fruitcake, consider the abject lack of governmental leadership worldwide (with the possible exception of the UK, Canada and Tonga Taboo), and particularly in this country, and you have a three punch TKO waiting in the wings in 375 days or so.
Consider the Poisonfire scenario, and escalating military tension with some adrenalin thrown in for good measure and my personal Infomagic prediction is up from a .7 to a .9. And I am perfectly sane, perfectly rational, this is just my take based on all of the above.
So yes perhaps Leo needs some help, perhaps his help is this and other forums where he can validate that he is not going crazy. Better to talk about the problem than bottle it up and let it fester. The fact is, Leo's conclusions are logical and rational *for him* and that is what matters.
This forum is actually quite tame compared to some that are out there - there is actually a wealth of information in the archives for the newbies. Finally Craig if you think this is bad, stick around, wait 'till the first few publicised failures start occurring with more frequency throughout '99 and see how peole react mentally and emotionally. This is really the calm before the storm IMHO.
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 22, 1998.
# # # 19981222Geln Austin:
You wrote:
"At the worst point of the Great Depression, unemployment was 33% percent, I believe. And that was just a 1 to 2 year period around 1932/1933. By 1935, unemployment was back down, partially due to the CCC, the problem was that people were making 2/3 to 1/2 of what they were making in 1929... "
What the non-FUD-inclined are NOT considering and/or fail ( intentionally or otherwise--I don't read minds! ) to mention, is that during the "Great Depression," the infrastructure was functional, for those that could afford it!!
The Y2K TECHNO-AMBUSH WILL BE DIFFERENT!! Major, non-rural, life- supporting infrastructure ( i.e., utilities [ref. SEC 10-Q's!], military, transportation, agriculture, et al [ref. U.S. Congressional testimony] ) are strung out, thinly, in a vulnerable, fragile web of technology.
I want to know what _other people hear_ when the U.S. Federal Reserve AND the U.S. Navy each state that their systems/missions will not be useful without their computer systems functioning at better than 99%? In other words, their assessment is that a failure rate of even 1% is not tolerable.
Correct date computation is mission critical! What si so difficult about understanding that concept? Without this capability, the ENTIRE infrastructure is "toast." Useless. Kaput! Cablooie!
Everything we perceive and act upon is universally quantified in terms of finite dates and time. If years are represented in computer systems as 2-digits, it is axiomatic that every ( modulo ) 100 years, date and time representations will suffer from reset dysfunction; disconnects; no overlapping/carry-over; etc.
Conceptually, that is about as clear as anyone might be able to make it.
Where is the "insanity" in the premise and immutable consequences? ...
Regards, Bob Mangus # # #
-- Robert Mangus (rmangus@mail.netquest.com), December 22, 1998.
Every time INVAR posts thousands run in the other direction towards thoughtful preparation and sound reasoning. This person is without a doubt the best advertisement for moderation and restraint on this forum. Craig your arguement was well written and made a lot of sense
-- Jimmy Bagga Doughnuts (jim1bets@worldnet.att.net), December 22, 1998.
After reviewing Craig's comments, I think that a troll posted them. A really stupid fucking troll!
-- The Explorer (freedom@aol.com), December 22, 1998.
Leo -to get back to your original question.
minimal 33 to 50 percent crunch in employment, though rippled out over several months - even in those areas in this country which may be able to recover, various industries will experience the casacade effects of being dependant on noncompliant businesses and/or businesses in areas (including other countries) which are, and will remain noncompliant.
I think you're casualty estimate is low. I really hate to estimate these sorts of things but take a look at the populations of the cities in the US snowbelt...even if you lose only 10 percent of that due to repeated interuptions of utilities, it ends up being a relatively significant number.
If you want some even more significant numbers look at the cities in Northern Europe, and realize that THEIR power grid extends across quite a few international borders...
Some civil unrest...both urban - due to loss of services, and rural - active resistance to attempts by the fedgov to impose martial law restrictions and/or to stem/halt the flow of refugees from urban areas.
If the fedgov does survive, it will be substantially weakened (thank God!).
Too many unpredictables (?does Hamas have any of those missing Russian nukes? ?will Iraq and Iran go at it with chemical and biological weapons if they realize that no one can stop them? ?Will Iraq use bio weapons on Israel? ?would Israel respond? ?what sort of terrorist incidents can be expected from various islamic groups, targetting the US and or US allies (note recent news item concerning threats against Kuwaiti citizens in the UK)?) to give any sort of long range prediction on recovery time.
just my 2 cents' worth, Arlin
-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), December 23, 1998.
Brilliant questions to ponder Arlin. Unfortunately most folks don't want to deal with those reality prospects. If they don't think about 80% unemployment, destroyed infrastructure etc., they will just go away.Hammas, Israel, biological bombs, Kuwait, that's all stuff that doesn't affect us anyway. So what if N. Korea has ICBM and Nuke capability? We're America! Nothing happens here!
Now Arlin, stop being a fear monger or I'll report you to the FBI.
-- INVAR (gundark@aol.com), December 23, 1998.
I expect unemployment to go way up in some areas and at certain times in 2000. There's another angle to this, though. People will be needed to jobs formerly done by computers.But companies will not have the money and profit margins to hire as many people as will be needed, especially at current wages. What could happen in this scenario? Jobs that pay next to nothing--maybe enough to rent a room and eat some meals at a boarding house.
-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), December 23, 1998.
>>If the fedgov does survive, it will be substantially weakened (thank God!). <<Arlin, Could you provide some support for this statement, please? Generally I consider your posts to be reasonable and level-headed, and even in this case I'm just nitpicking an off-the-cuff remark.
It appears that most everyone is accepting and repeating this assumption without a lot of forethought.
-- Elbow Grease (Elbow_Grease@AutoShop.com), December 23, 1998.
Hi EG:-) okay, do you want evidence for the "fedgov will be severely weakened" or the part about me being thankful to God that will be the case? (sorry, couldn't resist)
my reasoning is thus:
the major parts of the federal government (State, Defense, etc) are the ones that are the farthest behind in the remediation they are attempting to complete. As they are only attempting to remediate a small percentage of their systems (I believe it's less than 30 percent in all cases) - those they've labelled as "mission critical", even if they succeed in every single attempt with no failures and no delays, they'll still be operating at less than 1/3 of their current standard.
If they suffer from the standard failure to complete on time problems associated with complex systems, they'll most likely only be operating at somewhere around what? 16 percent? of their current standard.
Personally I don't think that they can hold it together with 16 percent, and they're going to have to make HUGE concessions in any case.
That's the quandry, as I see it...does that make any sense?
Arlin
-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), December 24, 1998.
It makes absolutely no sense you pompous ass. You are a fountain of misinformation you pathetic old fool. You throw out half truths and make up your own numbers. Everyone's laughing at you. Have you no shame?
-- Jimmy Bagga Doughnuts (jim1bets@worldnet.att.net), December 24, 1998.
Gymbag Fulla Dog Nuts,I've pondered for some years now, the length of time a human born without a brain could sustain life.
If you would submit your age, it would be of great assistance in this matter!
-- M (007@Q.com), December 24, 1998.
Go fuck yourself, wankathon asshole buttmunch dickweed homo fagot poofta nuthead weordi loser with no balls and peanuts instead.
-- Dian J.Squire (sacredspaces@hotmail.com), December 24, 1998.
oooh bitch!You, sir, seem to have a fixation on male anatomy and sexuality.
Are we to conclude that your ventings are a priori of "coming out"?
I think we should be told, ducks.
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 24, 1998.
And it's two g's in faggot, dearie.
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 24, 1998.
I know how to spel fagot you fuicking shenie homo niiger. You are a fucking wanker that is what you are and if you want to fuck a duck go right ahead.Some day I am going to cum round to your house (get it come=CUM!!!) and bash your fucking jew head in, you red fagot. I am going to fucking SODDOMISE you hard up the anus and then cut your fagot baalls off just the way you like them
fuckup fagot homo shenie wanker
you suck
-- Rick Tansun (rtansun@aol.com), December 24, 1998.
oooh I love it when you get angry, possum :)kiss kiss
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 24, 1998.
Dear Scumbagga of Dogdo,In light of the undisputable evidence proclaiming you to the lofty status of "IDIOT" (no small achivement for a man with no brain), I respectfully request any information concerning cognative abilities which would elevate your status to "IDIOT SAVANT"
Thank You,
M
-- M (007@Q.com), December 24, 1998.
M, perhaps we can set him up with Miss Moneypenny, and see if he can "land his bowler" if you know what I mean.
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 24, 1998.
Andy,Indeed, however the debt we would incur to Miss Moneypenny could be substantial.
M
-- M (007@Q.com), December 24, 1998.
Hmmm, OK M, it's going to have to be Oddjob instead, let's see what he makes of *his* bowler!
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 24, 1998.
M and Andy - ROTFLMAO Quickest dispatch of a troll from a thread that I've ever seen. I hereby nominate you two as official 'troll terminators'.Ken
-- Ken (kjohns@teleport.com), December 24, 1998.
Get off the floor and put your ass back on. I'm still here. I'm fighting the war for sanity on many fronts and sometimes I let my children watch themselves
-- Jimmy Bagga Doughnuts (jim1bets@worldnet.att.net), December 24, 1998.
Jimmy,It is extremely difficult for me to believe you are serious regarding your "war for sanity on many fronts", as your outbursts of autism speak so loudly to the contrary.
M
-- M (007@Q.com), December 24, 1998.
My balls hurt.Ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow Ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow Ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow Ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow Ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow Ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow Ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow Ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow Ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow Ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow Ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow Ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow
i have an idea; MASTURBATE!!!!
ah ah ah ah ah ah ah ah ah ah ah ah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah aah
ooh i'm getinng somehwere
cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum cum
AAH THAT FEELS BETTTER
NOW I MIGHT GO OFF AND SODOMMISE A DOG THOUGH JUST TO BE ON THE SAFE SIDE.
MASTURBATING IS FUN THOUGH!!!!!!!!!! I REALLY OUGHT TO DO IT MORE OFTEN WHEN MY DOG IS NOT HOME!!!!!!
BY THE WAY HE IS A BIG BLACK LABBRADDOR WITH A HUGE COCK JUST LIKE ME
AND I LICK HIS ASS IT SMELLS GOOD ESPESIALY WHEN THERE IS CUM ALL OVER IT LIKE WHEN I HAVE JUST EJJACULATED
SINIGNED LEO
-- Leo (leo_champion@hotmail.com), December 25, 1998.
Mr. Chittum, You are so dumb you think all you rantings, and threats of murder, cannot be traced back to your ISP account.Steps have been taken on this forum to ensure that those threats of harm and murder have been passed on to the FBI for investigation.
Have a Happy Christmas.
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 25, 1998.
Bobbi, you would die if you stopped to think a minute about what can be found out about anyone with an internet account. If we have your home email address, it is very likely your real world address is available, maps that show your home, and if you have a few pass words to the right places a credit history can be pulled up online! A friend has(had?) a home page at University of Evansville that would track your IP address and login name back to your home server, query the mail server for your real name, and be back with it by the time the entire page loaded. Came up with HI (Your Name) at the top of his startup page. Moreover, in the age of plastic money why would any cop bother to track you by satellite? Trying to track everyone all the time is an impossible task. Just follow the VISA or MASTERCARD purchases and they know where you are. And what you are spending money on. And often who you are with (purchases at two different shops by both you and a friend). Or track the ATM usage. Close surveillance is only used for someone physically dangerous, or for information used in court or just before someone is picked up. And don't even think other countries are better - most are much worse about spying on their citizens than the USA. If the country doesn't pass some privacy laws soon, with real teeth in them, you might as well move into a goldfish bowl.Check out a few of the recent real crime detective accounts at your library and you will begin to get the picture.
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 25, 1998.
Howw do ykou know I AM billy chittum though????
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 25, 1998.
It doesn't matter, brain fade, because the FBI does.
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 25, 1998.
andy,forgive me if I'm mistaken but aren't you one of the crazies whose head exploded on another thread about the FBI watching the Lunatic Fringe in the Great Northwest? Now you don't hesitate to threaten Jerry's First Amendment rights with the very same FBI. I doubt you think he has the means to carry out his threats, so I guess you want to lock up people you find annoying. That's very white of you.
-- Jimmy Bagga Doughnuts (jim1bets@worldnet.att.net), December 26, 1998.
Leo, another article, some ideas, good & bad:
http: //www.ottawacitizen.com/national/981221/2121139.htmlxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx
-- Leska (allaha@earthlink.net), December 26, 1998.